Post by rog on Feb 25, 2019 17:10:59 GMT -5
Moneyball is about capitalizing on market inefficiencies. On base percentage is still highly important, but everybody knows about it, so it's not a soft spot to exploit anymore (except hopefully with Drew Ferguson).
The new soft spot is baseball's middle class. For the time being, try to resist those long-term contracts -- at least until Mike Trout becomes available, if the Angels are foolish enough. Instead, wrap up some key elements of baseball's middle class. They're the guys who are giving the bang for the buck.
Start by extending your good young players. Sadly, the Giants have a dearth of those, so it's an area they can't take immediate advantage of. Instead, focus their trades on young, controllable players. Then extend them to keep them in the organization or in a tradeable status for a few more years.
Keep looking for any players out there who are decent players but are still unsigned and might still be signable on the cheap -- especially if it's to a minor league contract. Focus on options, so that good contracts can be extended at minimal cost, but with a minimal penalty if the option isn't exercised. The cost of not exercising the option adds to the player's guarantee, which can be a nice benefit for a player who is shocked that he didn't find a better market this winter.
Naturally a good team needs stars, but take advantage of the cheap middle class by building a strong base of wins on the cheap. As young, cheap prospects move up from the minor leagues, the team can be made more and more competitive without a huge cost increase.
Try to build a pool of available salary to keep adding to the inexpensive base and ultimately to provide the big bucks for that key star or two. The window on the cheap middle class may close at any time. It will likely change no later than a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is put in place, so take advantage of it while it lasts.
A replacement level team should win about 48 games a season. In order to be competitive, a team should try to build a team with about 40 Wins Above Replacement. 48 plus 40 would give 88 wins, which is where things should be competitive. Try to build that up to at least 50 WAR so that a cushion is in place and there is still a good chance of making the postseason even in a down year.
In order to get to about 40 WAR, the eight position players, five starters, closer and a set up man or two should average about two and a half WAR apiece. Middle class players who are worth around two or two and a half wins a season and are available on the cheap make a great foundation for any most teams. Add in a decent bench, and a halfway decent team might be carefully built without spending a fortune.
Use the money left over to lock up internal stars and to add high accomplishment free agents, ideally taking the team from 40 WAR to 50 -- or better, from 50 to 55 or 60.
Start the team with a foundation of solid yet inexpensive players. Then pay to add the icing to the cake.
Bryce Harper has been worth about four wins a season so far in his career. A team can acquire two two-win players a whole lot cheaper than Bryce. Eventually it will need a Bryce-like player or two (hopefully coming up from the farm) to put it over the top. Save some of the salary money for that time.
IMO the window is open now. Hopefully the Giants have already begun taking advantage by trying to make their unplayable lie more playable for the future.
The new soft spot is baseball's middle class. For the time being, try to resist those long-term contracts -- at least until Mike Trout becomes available, if the Angels are foolish enough. Instead, wrap up some key elements of baseball's middle class. They're the guys who are giving the bang for the buck.
Start by extending your good young players. Sadly, the Giants have a dearth of those, so it's an area they can't take immediate advantage of. Instead, focus their trades on young, controllable players. Then extend them to keep them in the organization or in a tradeable status for a few more years.
Keep looking for any players out there who are decent players but are still unsigned and might still be signable on the cheap -- especially if it's to a minor league contract. Focus on options, so that good contracts can be extended at minimal cost, but with a minimal penalty if the option isn't exercised. The cost of not exercising the option adds to the player's guarantee, which can be a nice benefit for a player who is shocked that he didn't find a better market this winter.
Naturally a good team needs stars, but take advantage of the cheap middle class by building a strong base of wins on the cheap. As young, cheap prospects move up from the minor leagues, the team can be made more and more competitive without a huge cost increase.
Try to build a pool of available salary to keep adding to the inexpensive base and ultimately to provide the big bucks for that key star or two. The window on the cheap middle class may close at any time. It will likely change no later than a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is put in place, so take advantage of it while it lasts.
A replacement level team should win about 48 games a season. In order to be competitive, a team should try to build a team with about 40 Wins Above Replacement. 48 plus 40 would give 88 wins, which is where things should be competitive. Try to build that up to at least 50 WAR so that a cushion is in place and there is still a good chance of making the postseason even in a down year.
In order to get to about 40 WAR, the eight position players, five starters, closer and a set up man or two should average about two and a half WAR apiece. Middle class players who are worth around two or two and a half wins a season and are available on the cheap make a great foundation for any most teams. Add in a decent bench, and a halfway decent team might be carefully built without spending a fortune.
Use the money left over to lock up internal stars and to add high accomplishment free agents, ideally taking the team from 40 WAR to 50 -- or better, from 50 to 55 or 60.
Start the team with a foundation of solid yet inexpensive players. Then pay to add the icing to the cake.
Bryce Harper has been worth about four wins a season so far in his career. A team can acquire two two-win players a whole lot cheaper than Bryce. Eventually it will need a Bryce-like player or two (hopefully coming up from the farm) to put it over the top. Save some of the salary money for that time.
IMO the window is open now. Hopefully the Giants have already begun taking advantage by trying to make their unplayable lie more playable for the future.