Nearly an Unplayable Lie

[rog]

I asked myself the question, "How has Farhan fared so far?"  I had to admit that I couldn't see anything great to this point.

Then it dawned on me:  Farhan was handed nearly an unplayable lie.  As with such a lie in golf, maybe his best move was not to screw it up too badly.  And that he hasn't done.

I put "How has Farhan fared with the Giants" in my browser, and here are some of the things that came up:


November 8, 2018.  NBC Sports Bay Area.  "Farhan Zaidi's Giants roster will emphasize positional versatility."  Check.


November 9, 2018.  NBC Sports Bay Area.  "Zaidi's biggest strength as general manager of the Dodgers may have been his ability to build 40-man roster depth."  Effort?  Check.  Results?  Somewhat promising, but we'll see.


February 19, 2019.  SFGiants.com.  "We're focused on this season," Zaidi said Tuesday at Cactus League Media Day. "I know how much Boch wants to go out with a strong year, and obviously that's a huge motivation for me and all the players."  Here is where the nearly unplayable lie comes in.  Farhan's risk is that in playing the ball for the 2019 "hole," he'll blow up the future.  Don't know how much he's helped 2019,  but thus far he hasn't blown up the future.


December 31, 2018.  NBC Sports Bay Area.  "Over the past two days, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has spent more than an hour meeting with reporters in his suite at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino. The word "platoon" has come up over and over again."  In looking up Manny Burriss, I came across an article that asked, "Are the Giants too lefty-heavy?"  In a precursor to one of Boly's recent threads, the article was written on my birthday in 2012, after the Giants wound up with Aubrey Huff at second base after pinch hitting for Brandon Crawford against a lefty pitcher.   That's how long the Giants may have been lefty-heavy.  Zaidi has picked up primarily right-handed hitters.


I don't think any of us knows how well Farhan has done this off-season.  I don't think Farhan himself knows.  What I think he does know though is that he's stuck with the same principles he used in Oakland and in LA, and they served him well there.

Depth.  Platoons. Versatility.  Speed.  Defense.  Hopefully they'll continue to play.  Because the lie's darn near unplayable.

[klaiggeb]

Since you started with the golfing example, I'll continue with that.

1-IF it's an unplayable lie, why attempt to play it?

2-If it's unplayable, take a drop and re hit from a better location.

3-If the lies unplayable, back to baseball, blow it up and start over.

He didn't do that.

Instead, he's bargain basement shopping with no really apparent plan for the tomorrow HE keeps ranting about.

You love him, Rog, you keep him.

I don't want a guy not moving us forward.

[sfgdood]

As a golfer I'll tell you what a smart player does with an unplayable lie...lay up. You're not going to reach the dance floor but at least you leave the crowd seeing you are in good shape to save par

[klaiggeb]

Another good analogy, Randy!

That's now 3 references to golf.

[rog]

The approach would change if the Giants go out on a limb and sign Bryce Harper, but thus far the Giants have laid up. They haven't taken the penalty of playing a new ball (players), and they haven't gone for the hole (Harper). They've laid up, leaving them (barely) alive for this season without hurting their future as bad, long-term contracts might have done.

[sfgdood]

one can argue Fargeek did lay up, but either he mishit or used the wrong club because the Giants' lie hasn't improved a lot.

[rog]

one can argue Fargeek did lay up, but either he mishit or used the wrong club because the Giants' lie hasn't improved a lot.
~Dood



Rog -- The golf analogy gets tricky here. I don't see the Giants as a lot better team either -- although I do think they're somewhat better -- but they haven't used up much in the way of strokes (money), either.

Last winter the Giants were hurt for a long time by their signing of Evan Longoria, whom they were obligated to play for longer down the road than any other player on their roster, including Buster Posey, who can be bought out a year sooner than Evan, even though it's less likely the Giants will want to buy out Buster than Evan.

In game theory there is a strategy called the minimax strategy. It is highly conservative in that it seeks to minimize the maximum loss. The Giants went for the green last winter, and their loss was significant. This winter Farhan has laid up.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5108/nearly-unplayable-lie#ixzz5gZzYl3kB

[klaiggeb]

I see it this way; if we DON'T sign Harper, and LA does... We are screwed for a long, long... long time.

We will play each of the next bunch of seasons just going through the motions because we will have no chance in hell at winning.

None what-so-ever.

IF he goes to Philly, things get a little better for us, but not much.

[rog]

The Phillies are said to now have offered Bryce a package worth over $300 million. It seems logical for them to have been the favorites all along, especially since their park could help him build his legend, and their young team may be primed for him to lead them to the top.

From MLB Trade Rumors:


As of yesterday, the Dodgers and Giants were said to be the only two teams still in the mix for Harper, and both were said to be pursuing him on shorter-term contracts with sizable average annual values. The presence of another $300MM+ offer, if accurate, would represent a considerable change of heart for either of those California-based clubs (or the presence of another team involved in the bidding). Joel Sherman of the New York Post explored the situation yesterday, noting that the Dodgers appear willing to offer Harper a record-setting annual value — “at least $35 million a year, perhaps closer to $40 million” — but only over four or, at absolute most, five years. Sherman writes that he spoke to one person involved who “insisted not to undersell the Giants,” as well.


I believe I heard yesterday on the MLB Network that Dodgers' top dog Andrew Friedman said at some time in the past that if a team doesn't throw out analytics at some point, it will always finish second or third for the big free agents. In other words, some team is going to overpay. The question is, which team will it be?

The belief is that we'll know before the end of the week which team will be willing to overpay most. Or perhaps we'll get an indication that a team's willingness to overpay will have successfully met with Harper's other desires for where to play.

One thing that may favor the Giants and the Dodgers is that it is believed Bryce wants to play on the West Coast, not too far from his Las Vegas home.

I would rank the three teams -- said as of yesterday to be the only teams remaining in the mix, although we certainly don't know that for sure -- this way:

1. Phillies -- Money talks, and the Phillies owner said at the beginning of the winter that he was willing to spend "stupid money."

2. Dodgers -- They are the best team of the three, and Bryce is said to want to play for them.

3. Surprise team -- Let's just hope the surprise team is the Giants.

4. Giants -- I think if they're the other team that's offered over $300 million, they've got a chance.

Now there's a report that the Yankees wanted to get into the Harper hunt but that the Dodgers are already finalizing a deal. February is a short month, but it's ending with a bang.