Decision?

[Islandboagie]

It's rumored now that Harper has decided on a team, who that team is is unknown for sure, but we might have an answer today. From the story I read, the "credible source" believes it's the Giants.

[Islandboagie]

Actually, the "credible source" didnt give a team, a radio host in D.C. who spoke to the "source" believes it's the Giants. Not sure if he picked that up from his source or he's taking a shot in the dark.

[klaiggeb]

I sure hope it's serious and creditable, boagie.

At this point, I REALLY want Harper with us!

This will be THE biggest deal for us since Bonds, hands down.

[sfgdood]

You mean McGehee wasn't a bigger deal?

[klaiggeb]

Nope. Nor was Edgar Alfonso.

[rog]

It certainly would be exciting if the Giants can sign Harper. Two things we need to remember though:

. He's been injury-prone.

. It doesn't take an oracle to see that his home park would hurt him.

. As Randy (or perhaps it was Mordy) correctly pointed out, Bryce might not have much protection in the Giants' lineup and could wind up being walked an awful lot. An opposing manager probably shouldn't allow himself to be beaten by Bryce with a right-hander on the mound.


One thing I found fascinating about Bryce and which could be a trend that would help him if the Giants do sign him and he has to take on the park: Bryce has hit nine home runs down the left field line in his career (between a normal left field position and the line), and six of them came last season. Bryce hits a lot of balls to left field, although he can really be over-shifted on the infield.

[klaiggeb]

And once again, Roger, you step in and immediately find a way to disagree; find a way to point out the negatives.

I can only imagine what you would have said the year we signed Bonds;

"Probably past his prime as an outfielder, and simply cannot throw. And playing at Candlestick will definitely hurt his numbers."

[Islandboagie]

Yes they would walk Harper a lot, which would make them have to pitch to Buster with someone on base. I see that as a positive, not a negative.

[rog]

I can only imagine what you would have said the year we signed Bonds;

"Probably past his prime as an outfielder, and simply cannot throw. And playing at Candlestick will definitely hurt his numbers."


Rog -- You know me better than almost anyone on the board, Boly, but even you don't know me on this one (although I understand WHY you said what you did, and it wasn't a bad comment at all based on what you know).

I have mentioned this before here, but I attended a college referee meeting with former Giant Nate Oliver and another friend, and when I got back home and turned on ESPN and learned about the acquisition (which I had been dreaming of but never expected), the only person still up was my 8-year-old daughter, who knew almost nothing about baseball. It was too late to call my dad, so I was forced to try to pass on my excitement to the person in my family to whom it meant by far the least.

It's one of those moments you don't forget.


Will I be excited if the Giants are the team? You bet I will be. (And, man, could the Giants use some excitement!) But as was the case with Stanton a year ago, Harper has been injury-prone. Still, after playing just 123, 115, 145, 74 and 119 games the previous four seasons, in 2017 and 2018 Giancarlo has played 159 and 158. Maybe Bryce too will be healthy going forward.

Frankly, the Giants are in a huge jam. They are old, infirm, declining and overpaid. They desperately need a jolt from someone like Bryce. Sadly though if they sign him, we shouldn't forget the risks that are involved. And as big a star as Harper has been, take away his stunning 2015 MVP season, and he has been only a two and a half win player over the other five out of the past six seasons, in part because his defense failed him last season.

The latest rumor came out early this morning from David Samson of CBS Sports: 10/$310 to the Phillies. That's really disappointing if true, but it makes sense. And if Bryce is a four-win average player over the course of the contract, he will have earned it.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5090/decision#ixzz5foP4IZeU

[rog]

Samson is the former president of the Miami Marlins, so his sources are likely pretty good.

There might be a revitalized run at Manny Machado now. The latest Machado rumor I saw was for exactly $100 million less than this rumor for Harper. I think that 7/$175 rumor we heard about Manny that his agent denied probably wasn't a final offer, but may have been fairly accurate. The market for Machado in particular has been really slow to develop.

If the Phillies sign Harper, I think that would make the White Sox the leaders for Manny, although the Yankees could always flash their money and jump back in. They've already got an extremely deep infield (so deep that even with Gregorius out, D.J. LeMahieu isn't a starter), but Machado is a much, much better fielder than Miguel Andujar at the hot corner. Turn Andjuar into the DH he was built to be.

[rog]

If they aren't able to sign Harper, at least the Giants are said to be exploring trades for outfielders. That might enable them to get both younger and better, which of course is something Harper would have accomplished all by himself.

[holiday613]

Feb 17, 2019 11:38:29 GMT -5 Islandboagie said:

Yes they would walk Harper a lot, which would make them have to pitch to Buster with someone on base. I see that as a positive, not a negative.

Since Buster isnt a power hitter, walking Harper in front of him wouldnt do any good esp since Buster is prone to the DP ball....Would be one big waste of money if we sign Harper now...

[rog]

It might be worth batting Brandon Belt in back of Bryce. Brandon hits into few double plays, and against right-handers, he's more likely to make the opposition pay than Buster is. Of course that also would allow the opposition to bring in a southpaw to face both Bryce and Brandon, and neither are great hitters against southpaws (especially Brandon).

In 2020 Joey Bart should be up, and he does have some power. Buster might have some again if his surgery went well. Hard to know.

Bryce would indeed be wasted somewhat with the present Giants lineup, but the Giants will very likely find a way to improve the lineup over the next two or three years.

The bottom line is that the Giants are simply a mess. I think they're headed in the right direction, but they're headed slowly. And at this point I think it would be quite surprising if they land Bryce.

But they've talked about trading for outfielders, so hopefully they have something up their sleeve.

The issue the Giants face is that usually teams that make big improvements do so because their own internal players improve, and while the Giants' players could bounce back, they're on, as Mordy stated, the back nine of their careers. The Giants lack the players to trade to kick of an if, then equation that makes a clear difference.

If the Giants got some bounce back, benefitted from the depth they've added, and been able to snag Bryce and keep him healthy and productive, they might have had something approaching a reasonable chance. Without Bryce there is likely too much ground to cover.

Apparently everyone is tired of my asking, but does anyone have any great ideas? It's just a very difficult situation.

[rog]

OK, so let's assume the Phillies get Bryce. Which of their outfielders would we like to see the Giants get, and what would we be willing to give up? I met a guy who coached Nick Williams and thinks the 25-year-old left-handed hitter is really good, but a lot of Nick's power is to right-center, which wouldn't seem to play well for the Giants. He's a ground ball and line drive hitter, so his average would probably do fine, but he has modest power to begin with, and I fear that with the Giants he would have little. Nick's defense hasn't been very good either.

Although he's more of an infielder, I'm intrigued with play-anywhere Scott Kingery, but Scott himself had a very difficult rookie season, and his failures seem real (although he got a little better as the season progressed). He hit the ball hard only a little over a quarter of the time.

So finding the right trade fit may be less than a piece of cake, and the missing piece is what to trade in return once the Giants do find the right outfielder.

Ideas are welcome.

[rog]

From tonight's Trade Rumors chat:


Q: If Giants don't get Harper it is reported zaidi is working on trades for players....any ideas who they may be?

A: It'll be interesting to see if the Giants can unload any of their larger salaries, both due to possible lack of interest (so many of those guys were hurt or simply not very good in 2018) or the under-reported fact that almost all of them have some manner of no-trade protection.

In terms of more realistic deals, Will Smith or Tony Watson could be moved in the short-term.


Rog -- It seems like the Giants ought to be able to get a strong young outfielder for Madison Bumgarner and one of the lefty relievers if they found the right team. I think the Phillies would be a good fit for the two southpaws, but as mentioned previously, I don't think they're a fit for outfielders, even with Harper. I wonder if the Phillies could be persuaded to part with Nick Pivetta or at least one of their other young pitchers.

I would be interested in the previously mentioned Kingery, but I would want to hear something positive from a trusted scout indicating a bounce back from Scott was likely. A year ago Kingery wouldn't have been available, but it's possible he might be now with the right deal.

The short-term control of Bumgarner, Smith and Watson will limit their trade value though.

[Islandboagie]

You really think they'll start selling off the team now that spring training has started? I have to believe you have more sense than that.

[sfgdood]

If he trades for an old guy I'll be extremely PISSED

[rog]

For Boagie, the guy running the chat wondered if the Giants would even be able to unload the big contracts given the injuries, slumps of the players involved, and the no-trader aspects of most of the contracts. He said it was nmore realistic they would trade Smith or Watson.

I think the point is that if the Giants want to trade for say a young outfielder, they've got to trade something. Smith and Watson have been mentioned as the most likelym, which makes sense. Bumgarner has been mentioned as the guy with the most value.

In terms of trading for an old guy, that isn't their goal, but if it happens, we should look at the deal before being upset. For instance, would we be upset if the Giants reversed last year's deal and traded Evan Longoria for Denard Span? That would be trading for an old guy, but it would be trading an unwanted long-term contract for an unwanted short-term contract.

Before saying that something would upset us, it probably makes sense to find out the specifics. Turns out, for instance, that trading Eduardo Nunez for Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos wasn't the disaster some originally thought it was. It's possible they made up their minds before examining the specifics of the deal.

What they were doing was disparaging the deal's CONCEPT but without knowing enough about the deal itself to judge it properly. It was once again a case of premature speculation.

[sfgdood]

how much has that trade helped the two teams thus far? One has won a championship, the other has gotten zero production

[rog]

how much has that trade helped the two teams thus far? One has won a championship, the other has gotten zero production


Rog -- Stop and think about what you said here, Randy.

The Giants traded for prospects, neither of whom was expected to have reached the majors yet. Instead, they're proceeding pretty decently.

The Red Sox traded for a veteran they hoped would help them win the World Championship. Even though they were a 93-win team, he didn't. The Red Sox were able to sign Eduardo as a free agent a year ago today, and they did indeed go on to win a World Championhip. But it didn't have too much to do with Eduardo. The Red Sox were a 108-win team even though Eduardo played at a below-replacement player level.

Eduardo DID help the Red Sox in 2017, but they lost to the Astros in the American League Divisional Series. He didn't help them in 2018, yet they won it all.

I'm reasonably confident that if the Red Sox could undo the trade, they would do so. If the Giants could undo the trade, they wouldn't.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5090/decision#ixzz5fvVwAxNY

[Islandboagie]

I'd still rather have Longoria over Span, Longoria isn't great, but he's not the worst player in the history of baseball either. During the two years of Span, I've never seen anyone make more poor defensive and baserunning errors.

[klaiggeb]

Me, too, boagie. Me too.

[rog]

I'd still rather have Longoria over Span, Longoria isn't great, but he's not the worst player in the history of baseball either. During the two years of Span, I've never seen anyone make more poor defensive and baserunning errors.


Rog -- Although Denard some how put together an excellent start to his 2018 season, allowing the Rays to trade him to the Mariners, I don't think there's any question that Evan is the better player now. But I don't think that is the more important question.

IMO the important question is, would it have been better for the Giants to have been able to dump most of Denard's contract to the Mariners as the Rays did and now be free of further costs? Or is it better that the Giants have Evan for four more years at a net cost of $63 million?

I believe our choice -- and the Giants' -- would be to be free of the $63 million obligation. Here's one way to look at it: The Brewers just re-signed third baseman perhaps now second baseman Mike Moustakas for a single season at $10 million. Moustakas hit 28 homers and drove in 95 runs last season. While he's not the fielder Evan is, he's also 30, just coming off his prime. Meanwhile, the Giants have Longoria for his 33- through 36-year-old seasons, and even though the Rays are paying 11 million of Evan's contract, the Giants are still left with an obligation of $63 million, including a $4 million buyout of Evan's 37-year-old season.

Evan is a better player than Span, but wouldn't it be better to be free of the added salary encumbrances? If the Giants want Denard, I'm pretty sure they could pick him up on a minor league contract.

What the Giants could use now is to take on a bad but short-term contract like the Rays did with Span, while getting rid of Longoria's bad (not horrible, but not good) LONG-term contract.

You post fit with what I was thinking of last night in the middle of the night, Boagie. I was thinking of headlining a thread with "Tampa Gets Rays; Giants Get the Sunlight Shaft." I was thinking of both the Matt Moore and Longoria trades.

Out of that, the Giants gave up fan favorite Matt Duffy, Christian Arroyo and exciting shortstop/center field prospect Lucius Fox for what is now just Longoria and his contract. Fox is Baseball Prospectus' #79 overall prospect, which would make him the 2nd-rated Giants prospect behind only Joey Bart if Lucius were still a Giant.

What the Rays have long had is an analytical approach, which helped them to sign Longoria to a team-friendly extension which ultimately made him tradeable. They also know to recycle their good players by trading them before they become too big a financial obligation. That's what you have to do if you're a small market team and want to win 90 games as the Rays did in 2018.

While the Rays appear to have fleeced the Giants in these two deals (Who knew Matt Moore was finished?), the Giants should now benefit from their new analytical approach, looking for value as a small market team has to do, hopefully then positioning themselves with a strong foundation that can put itself over the top with the added money that a big market team can spend.

Right now the Giants are like a small market team in that after their future obligations, they have little left to spend. I have listed how the Giants can get away from the salary shackles, year by year over the next four years, ending with ... Longoria.



Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5090/decision#ixzz5fzzW3azh

[rog]

Regading the Nunez trade, here is what MLB.com had to say in their scouting report on Gregory Sanchez:


Though Eduardo Nunez played the best baseball of his career after the Giants shipped him to the Red Sox, the trade could pay huge dividends for San Francisco. Not only did it land Shaun Anderson, a potential No. 3 starter, but also Santos, who has similar upside but is much further away.

[rog]

The Orioles claimed Josh Osich.