This from Fansided..

[klaiggeb]

We look at five reasons why the time is right for the San Francisco Giants to start their rebuild and look towards the future.

The San Francisco Giants have tried to piece together a contender for a couple of years now, but it has not worked with 64 and 73 wins the past two seasons.


Farhan Zaidi took over as the leader of the front office this off season.

He comes from the Dodgers who currently have a stranglehold on the division.

The hope is that he helps bring the Giants into this new age of baseball where analytics are a priority.

So far, nothing has been made official about the direction of this team. While the lack of offseason moves would lead one to believe they are ready to rebuild, the front office has not said that’s the case.

The silence there could be because they don’t want to scare off part of the fanbase, and to make sure the stadium is filled at least to begin the 2019 season.

Maybe they will try to sell the fans on the hope that if everyone stays healthy this year there is a chance this team could reach the Wild Card game.


They could base that on the fact that guys like Evan Longoria and Jeff Samardzija bounce back, and Brandon Belt finally becomes the offensive threat we hoped he would be.

But let’s be realistic, this team has no hope in 2019. It’s past time for them to rebuild, but if they need more evidence why that’s the case, here are five reasons.

Note what I've highlighted above.

Seems I'm not the only one saying they have no direction.

[sfgdood]

so what were the 5 reasons they named?

[rog]

Intriguing. To Boly, the key was that so far nothing has been made official about the direction of the Giants. I could be misreading things, but I think Farhan has made the direction fairly clear. I have also mentioned that I think he may have an agreement with the Giants that if things don't go competitively this season, the emphasis will change to rebuilding.

What got my attention was "The hope is that he helps bring the Giants into this new age of baseball where analytics are a priority." To me, that was the most important factor -- even more important than whether the Giants go into a full rebuild this season or try the hybrid approach as long as they can remain competitive. Unless they are rather lucky, I don't think they can improve enough to be likely to be competitive.

Let me ask this question: If the Giants were to sign Bryce Harper tomorrow, would they be competitive?

And another: If the Giants went into full rebuild tomorrow, how soon do you think it is reasonable to expect that they would be competetive again? Let me define competitive as having a realistic chance at winning 88 games. (That would take a roster worth 40 WAR, which is likely at least a dozen more than the roster is presently worth.)

And another: Right now the Giants' outfielders are Duggar, Shaw, Williamson, Slater and Ferguson. Throw in Hanson if you wish. In terms of batting average and OPS, what are reasonable expectations for them this season?




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[klaiggeb]

You see something I don't see, Roger.

[klaiggeb]

Mso what were the 5 reasons they named?

Same one's we've been talking about, Randy. But specifically, I don't remember.

I just remember that, they were the same things we've been discussing.

[rog]

You see something I don't see, Roger.


Rog -- I felt he indicated:

. Still trying to be competitive in 2019 while getting younger

. Looking for value like a small market team first, then take advantage of big market status by spending extra money

. Will add two or more outielders

. Has a good line on some players, reducing the urgency to make moves. Likely looking for prices to come down


The moves he's made thus far have featured:

. Adding younger players

. Adding young arms (such as Melvin Adon) to the 40 man roster

. Much more willingness to take younger players in the Rule 5 Draft and on waivers

. Players with strong intangibles, who may be able to perform bigger than the sum of their parts

. Veteran pitchers who appear to provide good value and/or have shown solid previous success

. Thus far an emphasis in adding pitchers and outfielders

. A blend of youngsters and experience

[rog]

Reason 1:


The Next Wave is Not Coming for the San Francisco Giants
What helped the San Francisco Giants go on an epic run at the beginning of this decade was that they always had another wave of great players coming through the farm system. But after years of bad scouting and drafting, that well has dried up and there is no help on the way.

As we already mentioned, the core that helped bring the Giants their last World Series is on their way out, but yet there is no one ready to replace them.

The San Francisco Giants have one of the worst farm systems in all of baseball. And the prospects they have brought up to the majors have not panned out yet.

Tyler Beede and Chris Shaw were recently two of the top prospects in their organization, but they both struggled in their first taste of the big leagues — albeit small sample sizes.

Right now, the only legit prospect they have in their organization is their second overall pick from last year’s draft in Joey Bart. There is a chance he could be the replacement for Posey.

Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez each had solid rookie campaigns in 2018, but I don’t think anyone sees them replacing Bumgarner in the rotation.

They’ve had a lot of solid outfield prospects over the last several years, but none of them have lived up to the hype so far.

It’s hard to sustain success when you don’t have the next wave coming through the farm system. You can’t rely on free agency to fill all your holes.

The Giants had success by building from within, and they need to get back to that mentality.

[rog]

Reason 2:


Times Are Changing
Another reason the San Francisco Giants need to rebuild right now is that the game of baseball is changing, and the Giants have yet to adjust. The age of analytics is upon us in baseball whether we like it or not.


Zaidi was brought in for this very purpose, to take the Giants into the new generation of baseball. However, it’s going to take some time for him to filter all of those ideas into the organization.

And to be honest, it might take a new manager. While I love Bruce Bochy, I think it’s time for both sides to move on.

From shifting to building the optimal lineup, the San Francisco Giants have to do a better job of playing in this new age of baseball.

The recipe for winning in baseball is still the same — pitching, defense, and timely hitting. That’s what the Giants used to win three World Series in five years. But the way teams get that production is changing, and that’s where the Giants are falling behind.

Teams who win also know how to create power throughout the lineup, while not sacrificing the ability to put balls in play.

The Red Sox were ninth in the league in home runs last year and had the fifth fewest strikeouts. That’s the type of lineup you need to build in today’s game to be successful.

San Francisco had the exact opposite last year with the fifth most strikeouts in baseball and the second-fewest home runs — that has to change.

[rog]

Reason 3:


The Dodgers Reign Supreme
I know I’m not making any friends with San Francisco Giants fans right now, and this won’t help, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have a stranglehold on the NL West right now.

The Dodgers have been to back-to-back World Series and there is no sign of them slowing down. They have everything that the Giants had back in 2010. They have a great group of veterans with plenty of incoming talent through the farm system.

As we are seeing now with the Giants, that pendulum will likely swing at some point and the well will run dry. But for now, no one can touch the Dodgers in the division. They already look like the overwhelming favorites to win the division this season, and it will probably be the same in 2020.

It would be smart for the Giants to start rebuilding now and looking towards the 2021 season when hopefully the Dodgers reign will be coming to an end.

The Colorado Rockies are also still competing for at least one more season with Nolan Arenado, and then perhaps they take a step back.

The San Diego Padres are already ahead of the Giants and looking to start competing in the 2020 season. And the Arizona Diamondbacks have started a mini-rebuild focusing on competing in a couple of years.

So the Giants need to wake up and realize what other teams in the division are doing. They can’t compete with the Dodgers and Rockies right now, so start building towards when you can compete.

[rog]

Reason 4:



Losing the San Francisco Giants Fanbase
I think people forget that the San Francisco Giants haven’t always had one of the most supportive fan bases in the league. In the 90s they consistently ranked towards the bottom of the National League in attendance.

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It wasn’t until the 2000 season when the Giants started to be near the top of the league in attendance, and that had a lot to do with Barry Bonds breaking home run records and AT&T Park opening.

From 2000-2007 they ranked in the top five in terms of attendance in the NL. That picked back up in 2010 when they started their run of three World Series in five years.

Since then they’ve been in the top five every year in the NL in attendance. However, last year was the first time since 2010 that they dipped people 40,000 fans per game.

They still drew over 3 million fans last year but averaged just under 39,000 fans per game.

Their sellout streak of 530 games ended on July 17, 2017, starting a downward trend in attendance, which coincides with the team’s current lack of winning.

The longer the front office goes without giving any kind of direction for with this team is going, the more fans they are going to lose.

At this point, I feel like Giants fans just want to know that there is a plan in place. And I’ve stated very clearly in this article, that plan should be to sell off any valuable assets and rebuild for the future.

[rog]

San Francisco Giants – The Core is Done
I hate to be the one to break this to San Francisco Giants fans, but the core of this team is finished.

Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Madison Bumgarner are still considered the core of this team from World Series past.

They all are now either in their 30s or about to be in their 30s, so you have to figure they are on the decline of their careers in the non-steroid era of baseball. The days of hoping those players performing at an All-Star level are over.

And to depress the fanbase, even more, I think we are definitely seeing the decline for Posey — at least as a catcher. It looks like he is on the Joe Mauer path where he hits .280-.300 but doesn’t give you much power.

Bumgarner is probably the only one of this group who could still perform at an All-Star level and he’s on the last year of his team-friendly contract.

And when I say All-Star level, I’m talking about the production. Just because Giants fans stuff the box and make all their players All-Stars, that does not mean they are playing at an All-Star level.

I could understand why the front office wanted to try to make another run the past couple of seasons with these guys, but that time is over.


I didn't get these quite in the original order, but it wasn't really too tough to get them.

[rog]

They’ve had a lot of solid outfield prospects over the last several years, but none of them have lived up to the hype so far.


Rog -- I have to disagree with the author here. The Giants have had a lot of outfield prospects over the past several seasons, but I don't see them as being solid. Has any team in baseball had worse outfield prospects since Chili Davis was a rookie in 1982. That's a long, long time.


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[Islandboagie]

Rog- San Francisco Giants – The Core is Done
I hate to be the one to break this to San Francisco Giants fans, but the core of this team is finished.

Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, and Madison Bumgarner are still considered the core of this team from World Series past.

They all are now either in their 30s or about to be in their 30s, so you have to figure they are on the decline of their careers in the non-steroid era of baseball. The days of hoping those players performing at an All-Star level are over.

Boagie- Crawford had a better offensive season in 2018 than he did the last time the Giants won the World Series. Obviously hes had some better seasons in between, but not significantly better. Brandon is still a threat with the bat, and the best defender in the NL, perhaps in all of MLB depending on who you ask.

Wasn't Buster just rated as still the best catcher in all of baseball? I forget who did the ranking, but I recall you talking about that, Rog.

[rog]

I think we are definitely seeing the decline for Posey — at least as a catcher. It looks like he is on the Joe Mauer path where he hits .280-.300 but doesn’t give you much power.


Rog -- Tremendous comparison between Posey's career to date and Mauer's. As a catcher, Joe made 885 of his 1383 career starts -- not a single one coming in his final five seasons. Of his 1063 starts, 865 of Buster's have come behind the plate. Both players lost their power, and with Joey Bart not far away, Buster will likely join Joe as a first baseman.

I have posted this before, but it's still somewhat shocking. Buster is entering his 32-year-old season. Beginning with his 33-year-old season, Joey Bart will likely do most of the catching. Here is the shocking stat: Johnny Bench started only 10 games behind the dish after his 32-year-old season. Mauer didn't start a single game there after his age 30 season.

A couple of questions: Does Mauer deserve to join Bench in the Hall of Fame? How close is Buster?


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[rog]

As an aside, just as starting pitchers aren't pitching as many innings as their predecessors and might have a harder time making the Hall, catchers are also catching fewer games. The adjustment for starting pitchers is beginning to be made though (see Roy Halladay and his 203 wins), and I'm sure it will be made for catchers as well.

One thing those who value defense will like is that catching defense is being measured much more closely and will almost certainly be considered more highly for Hall consideration.

[rog]

Another question: How much more does Madison Bumgarner need to accomplish to make the Hall?

[sfgdood]

Reason 4 is totally ignoring the Candlestick factor

[rog]

Reason 4 is totally ignoring the Candlestick factor


Rog -- You may have missed this part. It was kind of hidden in the rigamorole. I'm sorry I overcopied, but sometimes the format makes it difficult. I thought I was being nice just taking a few minutes to copy the five reasons. It turned out to be a bit tougher than I thought it would be, but it wasn'too bad. Boly is right that the reasons were similar to those we have brought up, but I like to see others' perspectives, and I hope the rest of you enjoy that enough to make my finding the reasons (easy) and cutting and pasting them (aye, there's the rub) was well worth it for you.


"It wasn’t until the 2000 season when the Giants started to be near the top of the league in attendance, and that had a lot to do with Barry Bonds breaking home run records and AT&T Park opening."


How did you guys feel about the reasons, and the reasons for the reasons that the author espoused?





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[rog]

MLB Trade Rumors seemed to reinforce what the Giants' plan is:


Unsurprisingly, the Giants appear to be hunting for value on the market in their search for a new slate of outfielders. That seemed reasonable to suspect when last we checked in on the situation, as the San Francisco organization seemingly wants to remain competitive while also embarking upon an effort to get younger and enhance payroll efficiency. There could be some interesting free agent opportunities, though perhaps the most intriguing possibility would be for the Giants to pick up some pieces that become available after late-breaking signings.


It didn't come across as a link when I copied it above, but here is a link to a Jon Heyman tweet from early yesterday afternoon:


SFGiants are pursuing multiple players and looking to make offers. Looking mostly at position players to fill depth and OF needs. Agents would call them lowball buds, the team might put it this way: they are looking for “opportunities” in a tough market.


When Farhan spoke to less urgency than usual, he probably was refering to his pursuit of many players who he thinks would be useful. He appears to continue to search for value.

Regarding the moves he HAS made, the Pomeranz signing was a gamble, but re-signing Holland to take advantage of his fine success after shifting to the first-base side of the rubber appears to make a lot of sense.

With regard to Pomeranz, does anyone have a problem with gambling $1.5 million on a pitcher who just a season ago went 17-6? Pomeranz was quite good from 2015-2017, pitching to an ERA in the mid-three's while striking out over a batter per inning.

He was pretty awful last season, but he may well have experienced arm trouble. His fastball declined by a full two mph. As noted earlier, Holland too was really bad the year before he joined the Giants, but Derek was acceptable early in 2018 and very, very good after he moved to the first-base side of the rubber.

As a former pitcher, Randy, you didn't notice that?

Remembering that the Giants might trade Madison Bumgarner before his contract is out and that they might not have a single starting pitcher in their system who will make an impact at the major league level, signing the two southpaws at bargain rates seems to make a lot of sense. I still regret that they were unable to land Anibal Sanchez and Yusei Kikuchi, but Holland and Pomeranz may not be horrible consolation prizes.

Pomeranz remains a gamble though. He missed two months of last season.

[sfgdood]

stupidity

[rog]

stupidity


Rog -- So it was stupid to sign Holland and Pomeranz for a combined $8.5 million? Please demonstrate your point.

[rog]

As a former pitcher, Randy, why do you think Derek was so much more successful after he switched sides of the rubber?

[sfgdood]

Holland was, in my opinion, more lucky than anything...a lot of hard hit balls right at defenders, long balls just foul, great defense saved him. And he never had to pitch out of his own messes.

The stupid part is trying to do both compete and rebuild.

[rog]

Holland was, in my opinion, more lucky than anything...a lot of hard hit balls right at defenders, long balls just foul, great defense saved him. And he never had to pitch out of his own messes.


Rog -- So you didn't think that any of Holland's second-half improvement came from that extra strikeout per nine or his cutting his fly ball rate by an unusual 12% or throwing 5% more first-pitch strikes helped all that much? What I was looking for was to find out if there were other mechanical improvements Derek made beyond switching sides of the rubber.




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[rog]

The stupid part is trying to do both compete and rebuild.


Rog -- I think one can argue either way on that. The Astros had what most consider to be a highly successful rebuild, and it took them seven years to get to the World Series. How do you think Giants fans will react if the Giants are a bad team until 2025? How will you react?

You implied you wouldn't react well when you said that if the Giants don't win the World Series in five years (the 2023 season), Farhan will have been a failure. So you're asking him to set out on a track that based on Houston's time frame for success will make him a failure.

I'm eager for the rebuild, but the Giants have shown that if they can put a decent team on the field, have those players have good seasons, and then get hot for the postseason, they can go all the way. That's a bit of a stretch right now, but they do have players with double digit All-Star games between them. If a bunch of their players have career-type years, they have postseason potential. The biggest problem is that those players are aging and haven't performed well over the past two and a half seasons.

There seems to be no easy answer here -- especially if success is based solely on the next five years. The hole appears almost too big to dig out of. There is little point in continuing to harp on the Giants' plan of trying to simultaneously compete and rebuild when they have made it clear that is the direction they're going -- at least for now.

Wouldn't it make more sense to try to figure out how best to execute that plan rather than to simply stating the obvious -- that we went them to rebuild? If the rebuilding could be done in two or three years, that would be one thing. But based on the Astros, is that realistic?

The 2010 Astros won 76 games. The next four years they won 232 games. Seven years later, they won the World Series. The 2018 Giants were about the same, winning 73 games. The biggest difference may be that the Giants are older than the Astros. You want the Giants to win the World Series no later than 2023? Is that realistic? Even if they fully rebuild?

And how do you think Giants fan would react to an average of fewer than 60 wins over the next four seasons? How would YOU react?

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[sfgdood]

The Giants strategy took 59 years of frustration

[rog]

The Giants strategy took 59 years of frustration


Rog -- Huh?





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[sfgdood]

actually it was 56 years...from 1954 to 2010

[rog]

Now your math is better.

One thing though: The Giants had a lot of GM's during that time, so they used a lot of different strategies. Their strategy now is different than at any time during those 56 years -- or than during the nine season since.