Very Nice Mccovey Chronicles piece that sums up my feelings.

[holiday613]

www.mccoveychronicles.com/2019/1/2/18165640/whos-next-on-the-sf-giants-radar-vol-ii-outfielders

[rog]

Kind of stark when one looks at it. If Farhan sees a lot of outfield and rotation depth, he has better vision than I.

Or maybe it's like the way I described the Warriors in the late '80's, saying, they've got a great bench. Unfortunately most of it's starting.

This also pointed out though that the Giants' outfield has been so bad the past two or three seasons that even a capable bench player might be an improvement. That Farhan doesn't think left field defense is as important as we might think would seemingly tell us to look for some type of a power hitter there. The power has to come from somewhere, and a less challenging defensive position -- left field or the corners -- seems a likely spot.

The group of outfielders mentioned in the article was rather uninspiring though. A guy like Adam Duvall is available in trade. The former Giant is a surprisingly good left field, and his power is almost entirely to the left side of second. He also is severely limited by a .291 career OBP.

The job of improving the Giants may be even tougher than I realized. Then again, live bodies might be an improvement in the outfield; hence the additions of Ferguson and Garber, who the last I heard were alive and thus almost overqualified.

[Islandboagie]

I wouldn't put too much stock into what Bryan Murphy has to say.

[rog]

I would. He eats at Gaspare's Pizza, home of the Bruce Special.

[rog]

For better or worse, it looks like it's time to reign in our expectations for the winter. Maybe something unexpected will happen, but this looks like a minor league effort when a major league All-Star effort might be needed for the Giants to contend.

Or all their players could simply have career years.

Perhaps the lack of activity and the expected lack of activity lends itself toward a rebuild. Taking an aging team that has something like the 2nd-worst record in baseball over the past two and a half years and making it into a team with a serious chance at the postseason takes either an extreme amount of luck or some pretty significant moves. No significant moves? Likely no competitiveness.

Maybe that looks like a hope and a prayer and a full reevaluation as the season goes on -- definitely before the trade deadline. To me, it doesn't look like a competitive team.

We know that the Giants were highly interested in Yusei Kikuchi, but that doesn't point to a preference toward the present or toward the future, since Kikuchi is that rare free agent whose age fits either model. Had they succeeded with Kikuchi, perhaps they could have added on a little icing to add to the present. Without Kikuchi, I just don't see success in 2019 unless the future is mortaged -- and that would seem the last thing the Giants would want to do.

I'll probably get surprised on this one, but to me the signs point toward the future. And that's good.

Mordy says the Giants just shouldn't blow it this winter. Hopefully they see it that way as well.

And so the Giants' big move thus far has been to add two replacement level outfielders to the four they already had. I[m using hyperbole here, but sadly it's probably not all that far from the truth. Maybe a couple of marginal outfielders like most of those mentioned in the McCovey Chronicles article, just so the outfielders don't have to bat 6th, 7th and 8th.

[rog]

Or perhaps 7th, 8th and 9th on the days Bumgarner pitches!

[sfgdood]

Looks like Fargeek is starting off his tenure with an extended vacation

[rog]

Something you should consider, Randy -- and this is about virtually all GM's, not just Farhan -- these guys tend to work night and day. For the most part they love their jobs, and they work much harder than most of us.

[sfgdood]

1...how would you--or anyone--know? I certainly don't. All I'm going on is the lack of results.

[Islandboagie]

These guys are getting paid bucko bucks to sit in their office overlooking the field of the team they represent. Probably smoking cigars and drinking scotch while the rest of us are scanning the transaction wire to see if they've actually done something today. I dont doubt they did their fair share of work getting to the position they are now, but now I'm fairly certain they do whatever the hell they want to. They likely take vacations to anywhere, anytime they want, and probably get everything paid for by the organization. To act like these guys are worked to the bone is a silly fantasy.

[rog]

how would you--or anyone--know? I certainly don't. All I'm going on is the lack of results.


Rog -- Shouldn't you have said then that Farhan hasn't yet gotten results that we are able to detect? Incidentally, admitting to us how weak your assumption is shows that you are in no position to be giving him a negative nickname.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5002/nice-mccovey-chronicles-piece-feelings?page=1#ixzz5bfHnIW9F

[rog]

These guys are getting paid bucko bucks to sit in their office overlooking the field of the team they represent. Probably smoking cigars and drinking scotch while the rest of us are scanning the transaction wire to see if they've actually done something today.


Rog -- Your description might fit the old-time GM's, Boagie, but it doesn't fit most of the GM's today. It is highly likely that over Farhan's career to date in baseball his work weeks have been long and hard. He's an extremely bright guy, but it is highly unlikely that he has been able to become so respected in the industry without working long hours.

Just think, for instance, all the thousands of hours it took him to become acquainted with the factors he couldn't ever get and never will!





Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/5002/nice-mccovey-chronicles-piece-feelings?page=1#ixzz5bfIcEo34

[rog]

My guess is that most GM's stay in touch with other GM's even when they're on vacation. A GM's job is almost never done.

Think about the hours we spend here, day after day, putting DOWN GM's, managers and players. I don't know about you guys, but I usually post even when I'm on vacation. Like Boly, I'm too cheap to pay for the internet on a cruise unless I've got a business purpose, but I've also been on only three cruises, the longest of which was a week.

Farhan almost assuredly loves baseball (why else would he be in the business, when he could have earned far, far more in other fields), and he didn't get much more knowledgeable about it that all of us put together by not studying it religiously and working very hard.

You know how most guys in startups don't have much of a life while they "starting up?" That's the same way with the young minds who have entered baseball front offices the past decade. It's just that the baseball guys love baseball, don't make nearly as much money, and don't get startup stock.

Speaking of Houston, remember a decade or so ago when I posted here about one of the writers I read being hired by the Astros? They were pretty horrible back then, but clearly they have gotten a lot better.

Want to know which organizations have gotten heavily into advanced analytics? Just look at the teams at the top of the standings. There is a significant correlation.

We've talked about Moneyball here. It's kind of outdated now, although the original concept -- finding undervalued assets -- doesn't go out of style. The A's had a great run, but they haven't been successful all the time. They still can't spend much money at all, and other teams have caught up to their analytics. But last season with a payroll about two-fifths as much as the Giants, they won 97 games. The Giants won 73.

Farhan was hired to bring the Giants into the new age. He is considered to have a nice blend of scouting and analytics.

Speaking of that, Randy's ridiculous icon is simply crap. Yes, there are things some here have experienced that Farhan hasn't. But he's smarter than we are, and he's been around smart baseball people for a decade. We may criticize him, but that's mostly because a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Right here on this board, there are things you guys have experienced that I haven't. But that hasn't prevented me from being able to scout Andrelton Simmons better than everyone else on this board put together. That hasn't prevented me from spotting Brandon Crawford's decline both at bat and in the field the past two seasons. It didn't prevent me from performing far better on a SCOUTING quiz than Boagie. In fairness, I must back up Boagie's report that he took the test on his lunch hour, and he did so on his phone, making it difficult to properly see the scouting reports themselves. But let's just say that even with a cheat sheet, he wouldn't have fared better on the quiz than I.

I'm not saying I know everything about baseball. I don't come close. As much as I learn about it on a daily basis, baseball knowledge is expanding day after day much faster than I can keep up with. But I do work hard to TRY to keep up.

Someone who loves baseball and continues to study it will know things that those who rest their knowledge on their playing days don't, just as those who rest their knowledge on their playing days know things the baseball student doesn't. The difference here seems to be that those who study baseball are eager to learn the things that the others know that they themselves don't. Those who rest on their knowledge from having played the game seem content to rest on their knowledge from having played the game. And some of them even ridicule things they simply don't understand.

That's not to say they CAN'T understand them, simply that they haven't taken the effort to do so. As with Randy's comments here on this post, too often comments are made with just a little bit of knowledge. The more we learn, the more we realize there is so much we still have to learn. Apparently some just don't get that, although I hope that someday they will.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- It didn't prevent me from performing far better on a SCOUTING quiz than Boagie. In fairness, I must back up Boagie's report that he took the test on his lunch hour, and he did so on his phone, making it difficult to properly see the scouting reports themselves. But let's just say that even with a cheat sheet, he wouldn't have fared better on the quiz than I.

Boagie- When I said I took it on my lunch break on my phone, it wasn't to suggest that I couldn't see it well or that it hindered my ability to score high, it was try to get the point across to you that I didnt really care to score high, it was just for shits and giggles. I dont care to score high because I dont believe a quiz like that proves one's baseball intellect. It was a dumb, pointless quiz, and I treated it that way. To now use that as some kind of talking point to prove your intellect just shows how delusional you are. In your mind that quiz proves more than playing the game itself. That's pathetic.

[rog]

I didn't say that, Boagie. I didn't say that the quiz -- which I too took for fun (although I virtually always try to do well) -- proved more than playing the game itself. What I said is that no one would have done better than I, which probably shows I know at least a modicum about scouting.

I can tell Randy that the reason I understood Gary Brown better than he didn't have much to do with stats. It had to do with reading a scouting report on Gary when he was signed by the Giants out of college. The report said that he might not be able to reach base enough for his type of hitter unless he was able to show more patience at the plate.

You brought up a very good statistical point, Boagie, when you said that while Gary rarely walked in college, he rarely struck out either. No question the latter was a positive. But that didn't change the scouting report.

Randy relied on his own scouting report, which made sense given that he hadn't taken the time to read the scouting report I saw. Had I seen Gary, would I have seen the same thing the scout saw? I don't know for sure, but I doubt it. Armed with both the scouting report and the stats, I might have been able to pick it up, although I'm far from sure of that either.

The point though is that I hadn't even seen Gary play, and yet I knew more important things about him than Randy. The primary reason? Because I read the scouting report of a professional who had seen Gary, rather than relying too heavily on an amateur report.

I'm not trying to say I'm a better scout than anyone here, Boagie. Evaluating Andrelton Simmons' extraordinary fielding makes me wonder, but I don't really have any way of knowing. What I do know though is that when Randy says I never will get it, I'm a little confused about what the "it" is. Randy has made so many ridiculous mistakes here, and so rarely posts substance to back up his questionable claims, that it's hard to imagine that I don't see the game as well as he.

There are no doubt things he knows that I don't. I welcome him or anyone else teaching me all they know. But I know things Randy doesn't, and he would much rather criticize than try to learn himself. I've gone past Randy not because I'm smarter than he, but because I study the game far more than he, and possibly even more importantly, I keep an open mind.

In my mind that quiz DOESN'T prove more than playing the game. What it does show though is that I likely understand scouting at least as well as Randy does. I'm sure he knows things I don't, but he isn't putting them to USE.

I've seen Randy make some very well-structured posts. Recently I have complimented him in that regard. But too often his posts show a lack of depth of information. He does more guessing here than anyone I know, and his guesses don't always seem to be educated guesses.

I also didn't use the quiz to show my intellect. If I were to do that, I would do something like suggest the Wonderlic Test, which is what potential NFL players are tested on. What I do use the quiz to show though is that Randy's misguided thoughts that there are significant things about the game of baseball that I don't know and never can know are foolish.

A wise man knows what he doesn't know. Randy doesn't have a clue.