Buying or Selling Based on Expected Batting Average?

[rog]

Baseball Savant gives the expected batting average for a player based on how hard and how often he hits the ball.  I remembered that in 2017 it said that Joe Panik hit well higher than expected, and of course Joe had an off-season in 2018.  Which got me to wondering how much this might mean in projecting next year's batting averages.

I'll show the comparisons between 2017 and 2018 below, but let's take a quick look at what they might imply for 2019:

                             2018 Actual     2018 Expected     2019 Action

Steven Duggar            .255               .197                  Hope

Alen Hanson              .252                .206                   Trade

Austin Slater              251                .205                   Trade

Hunter Pence             .226                .215                   Release

Gorkys Hernandez      .234                .229                   Minor league contract

Pablo Sandoval          .248                 .244                   Hold

Brandon Belt             .255                 .254                   Hold

Gregor Blanco           .217                 .219                   Release

Buster Posey             .284                 .287                   Hold

Brandon Crawford     .254                  .258                   Hold

Evan Longoria          .244                   .251                  Trade

Nick Hundley            .241                   .261                  Re-Sign

Joe Panik                 .254                  .289                   Hold!!!!


The big hold is Joe Panik.  Brandon Belt seems like a clear hold too given that his actual SLG was .414, and his expected was .481.  Some of that was AT&T, which will likely continue to be repeated, but it does give hope for a bounce back through the trade deadline or the end of the season.


As for last season, let's see how the guys with the greatest expected differences -- both up and down -- did in 2018 compared to 2017:

                            2017 Actual     2017 Expected      2018 Actual   

Austin Slater               .282                .225                   .251

Kelby Tomlinson          .258                .224                   .207

Buster Posey               .320                .287                   .284

Gorkys Hernandez       .255                .225                   .234

Joe Panik                    .288                .261                   .254

Hunter Pence              .260                .239                    .226

Evan Longoria             .261                .249                    .244

Andrew McCutchen     .279                 .274                   .255

Brandon Crawford       .253                 .249                   .254

Nick Hundley              .244                 .243                   .241

Denard Span              .272                 .274                   .261

Pablo Sandoval           .220                 .237                   .248

Brandon Belt              .241                 .264                   .253


For the most part, the guys whose expected average was better than actual, went on to improve in 2018.  Those whose actual and expected averages were pretty close, had little change in 2018.  And those whose expected average was worse than actual declined.  This is a tiny little study which isn't yet very meaningful, but it is the reason for the above recommendations.

The strongest recommendations for 2019 would be to hold onto Joe, and get what the Giants can get for Hanson and Slater.  If it's not enough, just hold onto them and hope.  Hope for Steven Duggar, but certainly don't make him untradeable if the Giants can get a decent return.

[klaiggeb]

Interesting...Not that I agree with all of them, but interesting.

I said multiple times last year Hanson is NOT the answer anywhere on the field.

He can't/won't hit LHP.

His defense is borderline terrible.

His ONLY asset is his speed.



Panik-2 injury plagued seasons will NOT tarnish my thoughts about Joe.

My prediction IF HE STAYS HEALTHY, is a massive return to the .280-.290 level.

He's motivated, has sound mechanics and can flat out hit.



Slater-Supposedly he's retooling his swing.

I take a wait and see attitude and watch what he does in the spring.


Pablo-With Boston playing his salary, we can afford to keep him. But with his lack of flexibility in the field? 1B and 3B only? I'm not so sure.

I'd rather have Josh Harrison from the Pirates, (about whom the Giants are said to have an interest), I think

[rog]

If Austin is retooling his swing for more lift, I'd definitely keep him around. As I posted earlier, as a clear ground ball hitter who hits the ball harder when he hits it on the ground than he does when he hits it in the air, he's a superb candidate for an increased launch angle approach.

We're in concurrence on Joe, who is projected at .276 by Depth Charts. And I too would much rather have Josh Harrison -- who can play 2nd, 3rd and the outfield and hits from the right side, IMO an area of need for the Giants -- than Pablo. I haven't researched by Josh, but at the right price I would be intrigued.

So we agree on all four guys including Hanson, whom I believe you described quite well. If only Alen could hit from the right side, he might be able to help -- although I'm not sure even of that.

Glad you mentioned Austin's change though. That makes my day. He's a disappointing fielder, but he has speed, bats right-handed and IMO could indeed become a good hitter if he gets a higher launch angle and becomes more aggressive. One would think he's getting coaching to do both.

One good thing about the numbers, by the way, is that we could sit down with Austin and show him how he has hit in various counts, and as a Stanford guy, he almost certainly would be able to see the advantages of being more aggressive. It's black and white. The questions would be how well he could master the more aggressive approach, how the pitchers would adjust, and how well he could counter-adjust.

But, yeah, that he's changing his swing is highly encouraging. I don't think every hitter can make that change, but if he could do so, he would likely hit for a better average as well as more power. Throw in a more aggressive approach, and I agree with you that he has the potential to become not just an above-average hitter, but a good one. Surely he can improve his defense as well with the right tutelage. Maybe Willie Mays and Barry Bonds know a little about fielding.

Slater should have the tools to be both a good hitter and a good fielder.

[rog]

And Slater has the flexibility to play a little infield.

[rog]

I've looked more closely at Harrison, and I'm significantly opposed to acquiring him unless it's on the total cheap. I realize he hit .315 in 2014, but since then he simply hasn't been nearly a good enough hitter. The only good thing I can say about him is that he doesn't strike out much. He just doesn't hit the ball well enough when he puts it in play.

[klaiggeb]

Hanson has soooooooooooooooooooo many problems at the plate it would take eleventeen pages to explain them all.

But I'll cover just a few:

1-He NEVER cuts down on his swing from either side. It's always "Lift and separate" trying to hit the ball out.

He's the 2018 version of Matty Alou who, in 1964 said: "I want to hit Home runs like my big brother Felipe."

If Harry Walker hadn't finally convinced him to HIT THE DAMNED BALL ON THE GROUND AND USE his speed, he would have been done by 1966 when he hit .352 for the Pirates and went on to hit .300 in 5 of the next 6 seasons.


2-He tries to pull everything


3-He NEVER, EVER attempts to play to his one strength; his foot speed.

This guy could bunt .300! (I'm exaggerating, Roger)


4-He makes ZERO attempt to hit the ball where it's pitched.


IF he wonders why no one wanted him, and why he WON'T be around long next year without changes, he need only look at what he's doing.

If it ain't working, try something else.


But no, I'm guessing he's like eleven gazillion other professional athletes; he won't even consider a change.

[sfgdood]

2018 Actual 2018 Expected 2019 Action

Steven Duggar .255 .197 Hope

Alen Hanson .252 .206 Trade

Austin Slater 251 .205 Trade

Hunter Pence .226 .215 Release

Gorkys Hernandez .234 .229 Minor league contract

Pablo Sandoval .248 .244 Hold

Brandon Belt .255 .254 Hold

Gregor Blanco .217 .219 Release

Buster Posey .284 .287 Hold

Brandon Crawford .254 .258 Hold

Evan Longoria .244 .251 Trade

Nick Hundley .241 .261 Re-Sign

Joe Panik .254 .289 Hold!!!!


Dood - Hold: Hanson, Duggar, Slater, Sandoval, Posey, Crawford

Definitely Trade: Belt, Panik, Longoria

Re-sign - nobody

Open to trade: pretty much everybody

[Islandboagie]

2018 Actual 2018 Expected 2019 Action

Steven Duggar .255 .197 Hope

Hold


Alen Hanson .252 .206 Trade

Hold


Austin Slater 251 .205 Trade

Minors


Hunter Pence .226 .215 Release

Why would we release him? He's not under contract. I hope he chooses to retire.


Gorkys Hernandez .234 .229 Minor league contract

Hope he signs a minor league contract.


Pablo Sandoval .248 .244 Hold

Definetly hold


Brandon Belt .255 .254 Hold

Trade if we get value or if they eat his contract. Otherwise, hold.


Gregor Blanco .217 .219 Release

Minors


Buster Posey .284 .287 Hold

Hold


Brandon Crawford .254 .258 Hold

Hold


Evan Longoria .244 .251 Trade

Hold


Nick Hundley .241 .261 Re-Sign

Garcia is a better option.


Joe Panik .254 .289 Hold!!!!

Hold, only because he wont get as much value back as he's worth. Maybe move him at the trade deadline if he has a rebound season.

[sfgdood]

I'm not a believer in the "wait and see if he ups his value" method. What if his value goes down? We can't afford to be patient. We need to get rid of the dead weight, the old boys and the injury prone...and rely on our development team to get the most out of what we receive in trades.

[sfgdood]

We also need to close the deal on LEGIT international talent.

[rog]

Hunter Pence .226 .215 Release

Why would we release him? He's not under contract. I hope he chooses to retire.


Rog -- You are right on the money that I didn't state my intention clearly. By release, I meant not to re-sign, but I should have said it that way.

As for what I hope, it would be that somehow Hunter is able to reconstruct his swing and save his career. And if he does that, I would be very happy if the Giants re-signed him -- even if only to trade him at the deadline. That would probably be a low blow though, so in a retooling situation, I would need to feel strongly about his change, and in a rebuilding situation he wouldn't make sense IMO.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4992/buying-selling-expected-batting-average#ixzz5b2SVJWB7

[rog]

I'm not a believer in the "wait and see if he ups his value" method. What if his value goes down?


Rog -- That makes a lot of sense. That is why I think it is important to weigh two factors:

. How much can the Giants get now?

. How likely is the player to rebound enough to get significantly more in the future?

Based on that, I am willing to take the "wait and see" approach if I can't get enough for a guy, and he's likely in my judgment to increase his value. If a player has virtually no trade value, about the only thing to do is hold and hope.

I liked Boly's idea with Slater a lot. I don't think Austin has much trade value, but if he can master the lift and drive stroke and can become much more aggressive as well, I think he has the potential to become a good hitter -- and he can also be versatile.

I think Steven Duggar would hit better if he were more aggressive. By doing so though, he would run the risk of cutting into a walk rate that is already on the margins for a leadoff hitter. Because the strikeout is so prevalent, I think there are quite a few hitters who would do better to pretend a strikeout comes on the second strike. Once most hitters get two strikes on them, they're not very good. If they can do so without losing the strike zone, I think they would benefit from working very hard not to get to two strikes.

With Duggar, for instance, once he got to two strikes he had nearly a one in three chance of striking out. He hit just .149 with a .429 OPS once he got to two strikes. Once he got to two strikes, he was going to make an out about five out of every six plate appearances. And remember, Steven's job is to get on base.

I don't have a lot of access to Steven's splits, but at Sacramento he hit just .157 when he was behind in the count. Sounds like he should adjust his approach to not get behind in the count. Easier said than done, of course. But I think if he can successfully become more aggressive, he could possibly become a first-division center fielder. Otherwise I fear he will be more of a fourth outfielder/platoon player type.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4992/buying-selling-expected-batting-average?page=1#ixzz5b2TUDSFj

[sfgdood]

Again...it's better to get 75% value now then "maybe" getting 100% value next year. We can't afford to waste time. If we keep dead weight and injury prone oafs in the HOPES that they can turn it around and increase trade value, it's a bad gamble. We need to rebuild NOW...not next year.

[Islandboagie]

I believe Panik wouldn't get even 75% right now, which is why I'd hold him. I think he's worth more to the Giants than the value he'd get back. And I do think he has a decent chance of having a bounce back season as well. I believe he's a better player than his last few seasons have shown stat-wise, and stats are what other teams are looking at.

You might not agree, and that's fine, but too many things are telling me the smart decision would be to wait on moving him.

Belt is a different story. He's established himself more than Panik has, and I believe his offensive stats make him look better than he really is. Defensively I still like Belt at first, but we need some bats in the middle of the lineup and having Belt at first complicates that goal.

[sfgdood]

What they've both established is they should have no place on our roster

[rog]

What they've both established is they should have no place on our roster


Rog -- Over the past four seasons, Belt has played at a 14-win level. That isn't too far behind Buster Posey's 18 and Madison Bumgarner's 15. Although Brandon Crawford, Buster, Evan Longoria and Joe Panik have each won one or more Gold Gloves, Brandon is probably the best Giants fielder right now FOR HIS POSITION. Brandon as been selected as the #2 fielding first baseman by The Fielding Bible each of the past three seasons. During that time he has received more votes than any other first baseman. One could make a good argument that over the past three seasons combined, Brandon has been the best defensive first baseman in baseball.

Panik has played at a 6-win level, which his been limited by injuries. Perhaps limited quite a bit.

But what matters most is how much value the Giants can get in return. Now is less than an ideal time to deal a first baseman or second baseman. There is a glut at each position right now. In addition, both Panik and Belt are coming off down, injury-plagued seasons. Right now seems like a very disadvantageous time to deal them.

If the Giants can get enough, I agree with you that they should deal both players. But now seems like a poor time to get value.

If you are right, and neither player deserves to be on the roster, the Giants still benefit most by having the patience to get the most for the pair that they can.



Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4992/buying-selling-expected-batting-average#ixzz5b4qWymHG

[sfgdood]

what matters most is that

a...they cannot be counted on to be healthy, and

b...when they do play, the team isn't winning

[Islandboagie]

Rog -- Over the past four seasons, Belt has played at a 14-win level.

Boagie- The question is, how many Giants losses were attributed to Belt being on the DL or being in one of his famous lengthy slumps...my guess is it exceeds 14.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie, THAT is a great question!

[rog]

Again...it's better to get 75% value now then "maybe" getting 100% value next year.


Rog -- I don't think the Giants can get 75% value for Joe. They might be able to get that much for Brandon. As I mentioned, not only are both coming off down seasons, but the supply/demand for each position favors the buyers, not the sellers.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4992/buying-selling-expected-batting-average#ixzz5b88rqd2H

[klaiggeb]

I agree with Roger here, about Joe, Randy.

Right now I don't believe we could get even close to fair value for him.

[sfgdood]

You both miss the point...I just want to stop paying full price for him to be on the DL all season. Id rather pay the league minimum for someone who will be healthy

[klaiggeb]

I understand that, Randy, but I think Joe deserves one last chance to see IF he's the player we all think he can be.

And that starts with staying healthy.

We're not going anywhere this season anyway, so I say, give it a shot.

[sfgdood]

If we're not going anywhere why not start the rebuild now and not later?

[klaiggeb]

Not trading a young guy like Joe IS like rebuilding, Randy.

Joe is only 27 and he is a solid, solid player.

What you and I, to an extent, were hoping for, tear it down and start again, simply isn't going to happen.

If that's the plan, and Lord knows what Zaidi's plan is, (and I'm having some serious doubts that he even HAS a plan), then keeping a talented 27 year old is smart.


Now Belt? He's 30 and HE'S a different story.

Not only cannot stay healthy, he's an habitual UNDER achiever.

I'd move him in a heart beat, and I'd be willing to give Travis Shaw a look at 1B.

Shaw sure as heck ISN'T an outfielder.

We play him in LF, we're giving up defense in a huge, huge park.

[sfgdood]

He may be young but he is also overpriced AND injury-prone

[rog]

what matters most is that

a...they cannot be counted on to be healthy, and

b...when they do play, the team isn't winning


Rog -- Very good point about the two players' not being able to be counted on to stay healthy. That factor is one reason I don't think the Giants would benefit from paying Carlos Beltran $300 million. But we're not talking about paying these guys anywhere near that much. Together the two players haven't earned $50 million over their careers.

Hopefully the Giants will do as the Dodgers have done -- build enough depth that they are able to fill in with decent players when these two guys ARE out. Both have been decent players, and Belt has been a very good one. But they're not irreplaceable superstars like Harper is.

We're saying that the Giants don't play well when those guys play. I'm not going to take the time to find out the Giants' record when each plays compared to their record when they don't, but I do know that one of the worst months in Sf Giants history was this past September. Brandon missed half the month.

The Giants have been one of the worst teams in baseball the past two and a half seasons. Panik has missed 99 of those 396 games; Belt has missed 111. Intriguing that the pair missed a ton of games when the Giants weren't playing well while missing fewer when they were playing good ball.

It's kind of tough to argue that the Giants don't play well when the two players are healthy, yet imply that they hurt the team when they can't play. That seems a bit contradictory.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4992/buying-selling-expected-batting-average#ixzz5bG2isqrm

[rog]

You both miss the point...I just want to stop paying full price for him to be on the DL all season. Id rather pay the league minimum for someone who will be healthy


Rog -- That a good point, Randy. But it is likewise true that Brandon can best contribute to the Giants' rebuilding effort by bringing as much as possible in return when the Giants trade him. The time to trade him is when the odds favor his having the best value. Between coming off a down season and the market being heavily saturated with first basemen, that time doesn't appear to be now.

Your simply wanting to get rid of Brandon seems like cutting off your rebuilding nose to spite your salary face. And particularly in Brandon's case, I believe you badly undervalue the player. Brandon has his consistency warts, but he's one of the best hitters on the Giants, and for his position, he's probably the Giants' best defensive player and has been for at least the past two seasons -- possibly the last three.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4992/buying-selling-expected-batting-average?page=1#ixzz5bG7iWrFk