Post by rog on Dec 27, 2018 18:12:20 GMT -5
So why should the Giants have signed Anibal Sanchez?
I mean, the guy's going to turn 35 in two months. Except for last season, he hasn't had a decent year since 2014. He gave up a homer every five innings in 2015 and 2016, and that grew to one every four frames in 2017. Weathermen had begun using the shadow of his gopher balls to determine when spring would come. His ERA's in '15, '16 and '17 were 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41.
What is the attraction of Sanchez?
Well, several things in 2018:
. The ball came off batters' bats with less velocity than against any other starter in the majors.
. Batters hit the ball hard off him less often than against any other pitcher.
. His swinging strike rate exceeded 10% for the first time since 2013.
. Even though he threw 6% fewer strikes than his career rate, his first-pitch strikes jumped to 5% over his career mark.
. Batters hit just .213 against him last season, and the above factors make it appear to be real.
And how did he improve so much? He changed his pitch mix, tripling his usage of the cutter and decreasing his slider usage by half. he increased his change up usage, and cut his fastball back from one out of every two pitches to just two out of five. His cutter and change up were by far his best pitches, and because he cut back on the fastball and slider, they were better because of their lack of predictability. Combined with less usage, they didn't hurt him nearly as much as they did in 2017.
Sanchez became a better pitcher in 2018. He actually began his transition in September of 2017, when he cut his fastball usage and increased the cutter, leading to a 2.74 ERA in his last four starts.
Will Sanchez's improvement continue into 2019? Well, he'll be a year older. But he was a much better pitcher at 34 than he had been at 31, 32 or 33. And the reason appears to be that he became a different pitcher with a different pitch mix. No reason that shouldn't continue in 2019. We see strong evidence of sharp improvement in 2019, and we see the difference appears to be a more intelligent pitch mix.
In other words, he made an improvement in his pitch sequencing that really turned things around. He became more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.
We're hoping for that same type of improvement from Madison Bumgarner as he changes from thrower to pitcher. But one problem there is that he cut his fastball usage more last season than Sanchez did, but with far less results. On the other hand, he was a much better pitcher going into 2017. But his 2018 season continued his regression, although it thus far has been modest. Sanchez's regression had been both longer and greater. But he made a huge turnaround in 2018, and we can clearly see how he did it.
I mean, the guy's going to turn 35 in two months. Except for last season, he hasn't had a decent year since 2014. He gave up a homer every five innings in 2015 and 2016, and that grew to one every four frames in 2017. Weathermen had begun using the shadow of his gopher balls to determine when spring would come. His ERA's in '15, '16 and '17 were 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41.
What is the attraction of Sanchez?
Well, several things in 2018:
. The ball came off batters' bats with less velocity than against any other starter in the majors.
. Batters hit the ball hard off him less often than against any other pitcher.
. His swinging strike rate exceeded 10% for the first time since 2013.
. Even though he threw 6% fewer strikes than his career rate, his first-pitch strikes jumped to 5% over his career mark.
. Batters hit just .213 against him last season, and the above factors make it appear to be real.
And how did he improve so much? He changed his pitch mix, tripling his usage of the cutter and decreasing his slider usage by half. he increased his change up usage, and cut his fastball back from one out of every two pitches to just two out of five. His cutter and change up were by far his best pitches, and because he cut back on the fastball and slider, they were better because of their lack of predictability. Combined with less usage, they didn't hurt him nearly as much as they did in 2017.
Sanchez became a better pitcher in 2018. He actually began his transition in September of 2017, when he cut his fastball usage and increased the cutter, leading to a 2.74 ERA in his last four starts.
Will Sanchez's improvement continue into 2019? Well, he'll be a year older. But he was a much better pitcher at 34 than he had been at 31, 32 or 33. And the reason appears to be that he became a different pitcher with a different pitch mix. No reason that shouldn't continue in 2019. We see strong evidence of sharp improvement in 2019, and we see the difference appears to be a more intelligent pitch mix.
In other words, he made an improvement in his pitch sequencing that really turned things around. He became more of a pitcher and less of a thrower.
We're hoping for that same type of improvement from Madison Bumgarner as he changes from thrower to pitcher. But one problem there is that he cut his fastball usage more last season than Sanchez did, but with far less results. On the other hand, he was a much better pitcher going into 2017. But his 2018 season continued his regression, although it thus far has been modest. Sanchez's regression had been both longer and greater. But he made a huge turnaround in 2018, and we can clearly see how he did it.