Best so far?

[rog]

What do we think is the best free agent signing so far?  The worst?

How about trades?  Which was the best?  Which was the worst?  If a trade was the best, does that mean that the other side of the trade was the worst?

Which team or teams do we think have fared the best so far this off-season?  Other than the Giants, which team do we think has fared the worst?

[klaiggeb]

Sorry, Roger, and I think I speak for everyone hear except perhaps you, but if it's not a Giant signing, we really don't care who has signed the best FA

[rog]

Hey, I'm mostly a Giants fan, and when I posted that, I was mostly trying to get conversation going. I haven't thought about it much myself.

But to put this in the context of the Giants, the Mariners have done a very nice job of shedding big salaries and setting themselves up for a rebuild. One of the toughest things is to get rid of bad contracts -- or contracts that are OK in their first half but have a costly and difficult second half remaining. The Rays showed the Giants a way to do it -- take on bad short-term contracts in order to get rid of bad long-term pacts.

The Mariners got rid of the Robinson Cano's contract. Close to a slam dunk Hall of Famer who's still playing well at age 35. But he's got a contract that takes him up through 40, and he's still owed $120 million on it. The Mariners took back some contract in exchange, but they saved themselves a ton of money over the next five years. Money that can be used to rebuild.

I like to look at what other teams are doing in order to learn what the Giants might do. A decade ago we talked about signing the good, young players to bargain long-term contracts. Security for the player, and the chance to limit exposure for the team. The Rays began the concept, and they used it to advantage in being able to unload Evan Longoria on some unsuspecting team out there. Which involved this other concept of taking on bad short-term contracts in exchange for getting rid of longer ones.

It hasn't been fun the past five years or more watching the Giants' front office get passed by other teams. But the Giants are trying to catch up.

I have to admit though that as much as I try to keep up, I wasn't really on top of it. Until this winter I hadn't even heard of Farhan. The Giants have put a lot of faith in him, so I've tried to learn a lot about him. The good news is that the more I've learned, the more impressed I've been.

While I'm not the best at it myself, I have to say that it's tough to be a discerning fan if one doesn't keep up with the Joneses. This is a horrible development, but the Giants just might be the worst team in the NL West less than five years after being World Series champs.

It's far from hopeless. But it's pretty tough.

[Islandboagie]

You're just trying to set up Zaidi to be the hero if the Giants compete in the next few seasons. You're not interested in the Giants doing well, you just want more fuel to combat Randy's tagline. It wont take a miracle to get the Giants back on track, it will just take someone less incompetent than Evans to right the ship. I'm fairly certain if given the resources I could do it.

[rog]

Boagie, I guess I can understand how you might reach that opinion, but you don't know what you're talking about. Farhan has five years to turn things around. The job is tough, but that should be plenty of time -- even if he loses a year because the Giants continue to try the hybrid approach.

I think what you might have missed, Boagie, is the statement beginning the final paragraph: "It's far from hopeless."

If we measure success for Farhan in the next half decade as winning a World Championship, well, even if he's successful, there would almost certainly be a lot of luck involved. But if we measure it by having a consistently competitive team, I think he'll fare well.

I don't know that for sure. As I mentioned, prior to this off-season, I didn't even know that Farhan existed. But he is surely highly thought of in the industry.

By the way, Boagie, did you happen to notice my thread about the Dodgers' not having to rely on Farhan to pull off the big salary dump they made with the Reds? It's possible he had some early fingerprints involved, but the Dodgers pulled the deal off well after he left. While he's quite highly regarded, he wasn't the ONLY smart person in the Dodgers' hierarchy.

All I try to do is be objective, Boagie. Speaking of which, you and everyone else are getting tired of Crawford vs. Simmons, but it is a fact that Simmons has failed to make only 8 out of every 100 possible plays, while Brandon hasn't been able to complete 11 out of 100. Not that Brandon's 11% is bad. It's right up there with any other active shortstop -- except Simmons.

I look for more information on how good a shortstop Omar Vizquel is -- he seems to be ranked #2 overall in the consensus, with one Bleacher Report article ranking him atop even the Wizard -- and I keep coming across more good stuff on Simmons.

I will say this about Simmons: I don't think he's as good now as he was when he first came up. Defense is highly athletic, so the decline there tends to start early. Which, by the way, makes it all the more remarkable how fine Omar was defensively right up until he finally retired at age 45.

That's right. While Omar eventually became a utility infielder, he was still playing some good shortstop at the age of 45. I don't expect it, but if Simmons can defend that well through age 45, he will likely be considered the best defensive shortstop of all time.

But I don't know of any shortstop who did it as long as Omar, so Andrelton seems very unlikely to enjoy the same longevity. And I guess the longevity is one of the strongest arguments for Omar over Ozzie.

[rog]

Here is how I see the extent of the Giants' decline:

In the first half of 2016, the Giants owned one of if not the best record in baseball. Some thought they were the best Giants team in their 59-season history.

In the 2 1/2 years since, the Giants have had one of the worst records in baseball. They have become old and overpaid relative to production.

In 2018 the Giants' 10 highest paid players were paid $158 million, yet produced only 13 Wins Above Replacement. A team needs 40 wins over replacement value (48 wins) to win 88 games and perhaps be competitive, so when 80% of a team's payroll produces only third that much, 73-win seasons can result.

In 2 1/2 seasons the Giants have gone from being arguably one of baseball's best major league teams to one of its worst. Their biggest need is clearly the outfield, where returnees Steven Duggar, Mac Williamson, Austin Slater and Chris Shaw were worth 1 WAR in 2018. With outfielders usually being big hitters and with a huge AT&T outfield that should produce defensive wins with good defensive outfielders, the Giants' outfield was close to 10 wins below par for a contending team. By comparison, the World Champion Red Sox's starting outfield provided 17 WAR.

That's a lot of improving to do in one winter, but the good news is that the outfield provides the Giants' single best source of added opportunity for wins. The bad news is twofold: AT&T makes it tough to attract top free agent outfielders, and this year's pot of free agent outfielders isn't very deep.

The best solution would seem to be to trade for outfielders, but what do the Giants have to trade? It is said that the Cardinals have dangled first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez for Giants closer Will Smith, but while Martinez is a fine hitter (.309 career average with an .850 OPS), he's viewed as a fielding liability on either the infield or outfield. AT&T Park would blunt his power and expose his defensive weaknesses in the outfield.

The Giants were said to be looking for young outfielder Tyler O'Neill for Madison Bumgarner, but the Cardinals dangled Martinez instead.

What ideas do we have for adding the quality outfielders the Giants seriously need? My ideas were a lukewarm semi-endorsement of Avisial Garcia as a middle-aged gamble, and to wait and see which outfielder might be available from the team that signs Bryce Harper. I'm not sure I would even have wanted him, but the rebuilding Mariners procured Domingo Santana from the Brewers for a prospect and a young outfielder. The Giants don't have much of either to deal.

Can we come up with more outfield ideas? Or are the Giants stuck with the four above outfield prospect plus Michael Gerber and Drew Ferguson? The Giants might be able to fill one outfield spot from that group, and two might be possible. But expecting all three outfield spots to be satisfactorily filled would be like expecting to win with a pair of sixes.

The Giants need outfielders? Whom can we suggest, and what would we give up to get them?