Some thoughts on Anibal Sanchez, Avisail Garcia and others

[rog]

From Steve Adams' MLB Trade Rumors chat today:


Q:  Anibal to the Angels?

A:   I think whoever adds Anibal is going to get a solid value. He went cutter-crazy in 2018 and allowed the least hard contact in baseball. I'm buying the improvement, even if a bit of regression is still to be expected (which it is).


Q:  With Brantley out, are there any short-term deal OFs in free agency the Giants could look at?

A:  Adam Jones, CarGo, Jon Jay, Avi Garcia .. doubt any of them gets more than a year. You can filter by position in our free-agent tracker, for future reference:



www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019-mlb-free-agent-tracker/


Regarding Sanchez, I realize that at age 35, he isn't sexy.  But the Giants can likely get him very short-term, not impacting much-needed future flexibility, and as pointed out above, he changed his pitching last season.  Here are a few Fan Graphs' nuggest:


Anibal Sanchez, ATL | 2.96 ERA, 1.09 WHIP



The 34-year old righty once again tamed the HR issues that plagued him for three years and wound up having a fantastic season for the Braves as he curbed his four-seamer for a cutter to stunning results.


Sanchez was on no one’s radar to start the season and why should he have been?



Season: ERA, HR/9, FBv

2015: 4.99, 1.7, 91.9

2016: 6.41, 1.8. 91.1

2017: 5.33, 2.2, 90.8



I am sure everyone was signing up for a pitcher with an ERA consistently over 5.00, a climbing home run rate with a declining velocity fastball.



Even so, I wrote the following on him:



Yep, he throws six pitches. He’s got two obvious keepers (four-seamer and changeup) and two to drop (curve and sinker). It’s not a good sign when the four-seamer generates as many groundballs as your curveball. The slider and cutter (which may be the same pitch) could both be kept and then see how this mix works as he would need to replace 27% of the pitches he threw last season.


The 34-year-old righty was a target for improvement last season and a new mixed helped him.


Rog -- In his first start of 2018, Sanchez threw his cutter less than 5% of the time.  By his last start, he was throwing it one out of every four pitches.  The cutter and a career-best change up became his go-to pitches.

IMO Sanchez offers nice potential for little money and term.  Sanchez's 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP were rather impressive and were in the area of expected numbers from a top of the rotation starter.  His Fielding Independent Pitching of 3.62 supported the ERA halfway decently, as did his 3.96 and 3.91 in two other fielding independent evaluations.

Dereck Rodriguez's 2.81 ERA was almost identical to Sanchez's, but while Dereck's 3.74 FIP supported the ERA pretty well, his 4.56 and 4.58 numbers in the other two fielding independent evaluations didn't.  Dereck's 1.13 WHIP was impressive though.

I also mentioned Trevor Cahill.  Trevor's 3.74 ERA was clearly above average, and his 3.54, 3.80 and 4.06 fielding independent evaluations backed it up as being very real.  I'm not as sold on the injury-riddled Cahill though due to allowing nearly two in five hard-hit balls.

I really don't know much about Kikuchi, but at age 27, he certainly would fit in well if he's good -- which appears somewhat likely.

Do the Giants need outfielders more than starting pitching?  You bet.  They actually have some pitchers, and they (almost) don't have any outfielders.  But when it comes to free agency, the Giants will likely have a much better shot at signing pitchers than outfielders with power.

I have mentioned targeting the team that signs Bryce Harper as a possible trading partner.  As we've discussed though, the Giants are somewhat limited in trading chips not named Madison and/or Bumgarner.

[rog]

I haven't studied him closely, but my initial look at Asdrubal Cabrera as an infield signing is favorable. At 33, a little old, but he's a switch hitter who can hit both righties and lefties, and he plays second, short and third.

Cabrera isn't listed among Trade Rumors' top 50 free agents, so he can almost assuredly be signed for one or two seasons. He's a heck of a step up from Alen Hanson.

[klaiggeb]

If we are rebuilding, 33 year old infielders can't be in the equation

[rog]

If we are rebuilding, 33 year old infielders can't be in the equation


Rog -- I agree with that. What I think is going to happen though is that the Giants are going to try to get better while staying away from the long-term contracts that are presently tying their hands. The contracts of Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Mark Melancon and Evan Longoria are for four years or longer, but for a variety of reasons -- perhaps the biggest one being injuries -- none has worked out well thus far.

The Giants run the risk of getting into a similar situation with Madison Bumgarner.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4971/thoughts-anibal-sanchez-avisail-garcia#ixzz5a83KQaZ9

[rog]

One important part of rebuilding is clearing the books of heavy salary commitments in order to have the financial flexibility to rebuild. That is why I expect the Giants to acquire new players on short-term contracts.

The ideal situation is to trade for a good young player to whom they are obligated only a short time, but whom they can control for many years. But free agent signings don't require the loss of any players, and the Giants can't afford to give up much talent. And, frankly, they don't have a lot of inexpensive talent to trade.

[rog]

Regarding the Giants' acquisition of young players so far this winter, I have gone on record as saying I'm not big on the chances of outfielder Drew Ferguson, but it is important to note that he has gone from a low of an 8.3% walk rate in Low A ball in 2015 to 15.8% last season. Ferguson's OBP last season was a huge .436, which is getting up into Barry Bonds territory.

If Ferguson's .305 batting average weren't based on an unsustainable .394 Batting Average on Balls In Play, I would be more optimistic. What I think the Giants are hoping for though is a guy who can get on base and play all three outfield positions. That combination can make for a nice fourth outfielder.

As a fourth outfielder, Ferguson has got a shot. His competition isn't fierce, and he'll likely stick.

It is perhaps a little ironic that the southpaw reliever Travis Bergen appears to have the higher ceiling, but that Ferguson with the lesser potential has the better chance to stick.

Randy pointed out that Bergen was from a genre (Rule 5 Draftees with a low 90's fastball) that was a "joke." The Giants aren't laughing. It was pointed out here that not just velocity but fastball MOVEMENT was important. Soon after the draft, Giants' assistant GM Jeremy Shelley said "His fastball, the swing-and-miss [rate] was double the Major League average."

Now, we're talking AA ball rather than the majors, and we should remember that Bergen was like Candice in that he was older than some of the guys he played with, but a pitcher whose fastball whiff rate is twice the major league average is doing something right with his fastball. And given that it is likely his second-best pitch, that is encouraging.