Better Chance for Rule 5 Outfielder Ferguson to Stick?

[rog]

The Giants' second Rule 5 Draft pick was versatile outfielder Drew Ferguson.  MILB.com gives him a better chance to stick than Travis Bergen.  Ferguson is 26, but he's played 99 games in AA and 94 games in AAA.  This winter he's a teammate of Heliot Ramos at Santurce Puerto Rico, which might be where the Giants saw or were reaquainted with Drew.


14. Drew Ferguson, OF, Giants (from Astros): Like the Orioles and Royals, the Giants round things out with two picks. Their second one is a real threat to stick, as Ferguson is a ready-made fourth outfielder for San Francisco. The 26-year-old has split his Minor League time almost evenly among all three outfield spots and showed a good offensive skill set with a .305 average, .436 OBP and 46 walks in 65 games at Triple-A Fresno last season. He would have played more if not for fracturing his right ulnar styloid in June. He's shown good speed in the past as well, and with San Francisco containing a bunch of question marks in the outfield these days, Ferguson's versatility means he deserves a long look. Stickiness level: Four

You might ask the question as to why the Giants drafted Ferguson after Bergen, if MILB.com thinks Ferguson has the better chance to stick.  It may have had something to do with the Giants being more worried that Bergen would be snapped up by another team or that they see a higher ceiling for Bergen even though Ferguson is more likley to stay up.  Of course, they may simply have seen things differently than MILB.com.

[sfgdood]

No power...no thank you

[rog]

Randy, you just don't get it. The Giants have almost nothing in the outfield. Ferguson could well stick as a fourth or fifth outfielder. And if not, the Giants can return him to the Astros for half the price they paid for him.

As for not having power, Boly wants to build the Giants around speed and defense. Ferguson has played all three outfield positions and may well have those two qualities.

Hey, I don't know whether I like Ferguson or not. Don't know enough about him. But I do know that a fourth or fifth outfielder can be successful without power. Especially when he plays half his games at AT&T.

In addition, Ferguson isn't powerless. He hit 17 homers in 2016. He's averaged over a base and a half per hit in the minors. I believe that's more than Buster has averaged any of the past three seasons, and higher than Buster's average since 2012.

Have more faith in Farhan, Randy. You'll sleep better at night.

[Islandboagie]

It's ok to have faith in someone we dont know very well, but to act like these moves that would seem to have very little impact are all of a sudden brilliant strategical acquisitions just reiterates my point that you will blindly defend and cheer on those who are in the sabermetric community.

He picked up a 24 year old pitcher that hasn't seen triple A yet, and hitter who's age would suggest he's a career minor leaguer. The Giants make moves like this every off season.

I'm not saying these moves won't pay off, but it would seem these moves are just business as usual. You're acting like it's the Giants renaissance.

[rog]

Hey, Boagie, I don't know if either player will make it.

Sabermetrically I'm skeptical about Ferguson. He needed a .394 Batting Average on Balls In Play last season to put up his .305 average in AAA. Depth Charts projects him to put up a BABIP of just .312 and hit just .236 if he makes the majors this season. He did improve both his walk rate (to a very healthy on walk in seven trips) and his strikeout rate (to a nice strikeout every five trips), which are positives. He's a ground ball hitter, which along with AT&T Park limits his power.

I suspect he's more of a scouting pick than a sabermetric pick, although the Giants have a lot more information than I do. But when I mention a guy, it doesn't mean I'm all excited about him. I do trust Farhan, but Rule 5 picks are unsuccessful far more often than they're successful.

I like that the Giants drafted more than one player in the major league portion of the draft (and two more in the minor league portion), when I can't remember the last time they took more than one player in the major league phase, and more often than not, they've taken no one. When a team has a weak minor league system, I think it makes sense to try to fortify it through the Rule 5 Draft if feasible.

I did mention that MILB.com gave Ferguson a better chance to stick than Bergen, but that was their opinion, not mine. I would probably think the other way, although the Giants' dearth of outfielders could work in Ferguson's favor. I'm not exceptionally fond of Gerber, the outfielder the Giants picked up on waivers, either. But the Giants have access to much more information than I do, and I think they are working to improve both their scouting and their analytics.

I think you may be reading things into what I write that aren't truly there. I'm virtually certain that Randy does, since as I've mentioned, I am at my stupidest when Randy puts words in my mouth.

[rog]

This week the Giants added Mike Gerber and Drew Dickerson to the outfield mix. Throw them in there with Steven Duggar, Austin Slater and Mac Williamson, and the Giants might have one of the three starting outfielders as well as their #4 and #5.

There are two wild cards: Will Duggar have enough bat to support his promising glove? Will Mac Williamson, who took an exciting turn last season before being beaned, play to his powerful potential?

Duggar has the speed and defense Boly craves, but the Giants' rumored pursuit of Kevin Pillar leads one to think the Giants may be questioning whether despite his glove, Duggar will be more than a platoon outfielder. Surprisingly, Williamson too has a lot of speed and could seemingly man the vast outfield spaces acceptably.

Mac is a huge man, yet his speed of 28.2 feet per second was three times as close to Duggar's (28.9 feet per second) than to Brandon Crawford's (25.2 feet per second). To put that in a more familiar miles per hour format, I haven't done a calculation, but that might be more like 20 mph (Duggar), 19 mph (Williamson) and 16 mph (Crawford). Or maybe football's 40 yard dash in something like 4.7 seconds, 4.8 seconds and 5.2 seconds. I'm really just guessing on the conversions. Husein Bolt's best speed over 20 meters was 27.8 mph, but aside from Bolt himself, that's super human. I'm guessing Bolt could have run a 40 yard dash in something close to 4.0 seconds.

Bottom line here though is that the Giants could use two more outfielders, and as Randy said, it surely would be nice if they had at least a modicum of power.

[rog]

Looking forward, could Buster Posey play third base? Johnny Bench did 195 times, and unlike Buster, Johnny didn't play shortstop most of his life. Bench was faster than Buster though.

But if Buster could play some third base, the Giants might be able to cover three positions with Buster, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt and Joey Bart. Belt might even be able to play a few games in left field. With the DH slot occasionally available, each of the four players could get a fair number of at bats, with Bart and Buster of course resting the most.

If Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik can hold on, the Giants might need only to fill the outfield, and Heliot Ramos's ETA might be as early as 2021 (maybe even late 2020 in a pinch). If the Giants can add two more outfielders now, they might have a game plan in place for 2021, which is the final contract season for the two Brandon's. Buster and Longoria are under contract for one extra season beyond that.

Realistically, several more changes will likely be needed, but it's possible to see a 2021 team that could be competitive if they can come up with excellent pitching. They'll have some money available. Jeff Samardzija and Mark Melancon go off the books after 2020, and Johnny Cueto comes off after 2021. By 2022, the Giants should be out of most of their salary shackles.

[rog]

A couple of free agent outfielders who might fit are Avisail Garcia (28) and Marwin Gonzalez (29).

Gonzalez would provide tremendous versatility, but he may get too much money over too many years. Gonzalez had a fine 2017 season, and while his results last season didn't show it, he hit more line drives and hard-hit balls in 2019. More of each, but his actual averages translated very closely, so I'm cooling on him.

Coincidentally, the Red Sox took Gonzalez #10 in the 2011 Rule 5 Draft.

Garcia has warts too, as well as health problems, but he hit .330 in 2017 and has enough power that he hit six homers in eight games last season. Not to compare the two players, but like Christian Yelich, he generates some power despite being a ground ball hitter. Ground balls aren't affected by the AT&T wind and distances. Avisail pulls the ball on the ground, but his sprays it when he hits it in the air. Much of his power is to left and left center, although he's also hit homers to right-center.

I'm guessing as to what he would bring, but I'd go 3/$27 and maybe stretch out as high as 3/$30. He's not a great player, but he does have potential and would likely be affected by AT&T less than many power hitters. I said earlier that I was lukewarm on him, but I've warmed up now. Boly likes him, citing among other things what Boly sees as his strong arm in right field.

Incidentally, I think Avisail may sign a two-year contract and could even go as low as a one-year prove himself pact. But I'm really just guessing at the market. I think though that he could be acquired at a reasonable price and possibly for as little as one year. Avisail made $6.5 million last season and was projected for $8 million in arbitration this year before being non-tendered.

I wish I had time to evaluate all the free agents. There will almost certainly be a lot of overpays, and there should also be a few gems.