Post by rog on Dec 7, 2018 3:18:54 GMT -5
An argument against analytics is that they are based on averages, and circumstances are different. Certainly that does cut into the advantages of the analytics.
For instance, a batter may not hit the slider well, but he might hit the slider of the particular pitcher who is pitching that DAY. How does a team account for that?
Well, in the case of the Astros, who had the lowest ERA in baseball by a quarter of a run this past season, they are looking at individual batters' swing planes compared to the plane of the pitches thrown by the particular pitcher. Maybe against a certain hitter, Justin Verlander's slider isn't nearly as effective as Charlie Morton's. Maybe the hitter changes his swing with two strikes, turning his hitting against the slider from a negative to less of one or to even a positive. Maybe with two strikes, he's more susceptible to the fastball.
The Astros have gone a step beyond the other teams' analytics and turned them into what one might call designer analytics. Certainly the he Astros' had baseball's best ERA in part because they have very good pitchers. But how much have the Astros' refined analytics helped those pitchers?
Justin Verland is a potential Hall of Famer. He's been GOOD. VERY good. But in 2017 when he was traded to the Astros, his ERA was 3.82. Since become an Astro, it's been 2.32. That's a reduction of a run and a half.
Garrett Cole had a 3.50 ERA with the Pirates and was coming off a 4.26 season. After being traded to the Astros a year ago, his ERA stands at 2.88.
Charlie Morton has fashioned a 3.36 ERA in his two seasons with Houston after going 4.15, 4.39 and 6.15 with his previous three teams.
Who knows how much difference these designer analytics helped those three guys? Maybe they haven't helped them at all. But it is a fact that those three pitchers improved a lot after they came to Houston within the past two seasons.
I remember years ago -- probably close to a decade -- when a writer at Baseball Prospectus wrote his final article, saying that he had moved on to the Astros to work in their analytics department. I remember sharing that here, but probably even I didn't give it enough credence, thinking that sure, he went to a baseball team, but it was a Houston team that wasn't very good. Well, I don't know how much if any impact the guy and his department had, but the Astros are good now. Very good.
We still don't know how Farhan Zaidi -- apparently in some circles being known merely as Farhan -- will do for the Giants. But he seems to have a broad base of support throughout baseball. I like his hiring -- a lot.
Maybe I'll be wrong, which in this case none of us would enjoy. But I'm going to go out on a limb and support Farhan. I realize others are going to take a wait and see attitude. I did at first as well. But by waiting, I've seen enough (support) already. I'm perfectly fine that the Giants have entrusted so much to him. In fact, I think the more the Giants entrust to him, the better he'll be.
Incidentally, one of the things he his known for is his balance between scouting and analytics. That puts him off to a good start right there -- and leads me to believe that he is likely to improve scouting, analytics and development, as has been my wish.
With better scoutingm, analytics and development, all the Giants need is results. And I believe they will follow.
For instance, a batter may not hit the slider well, but he might hit the slider of the particular pitcher who is pitching that DAY. How does a team account for that?
Well, in the case of the Astros, who had the lowest ERA in baseball by a quarter of a run this past season, they are looking at individual batters' swing planes compared to the plane of the pitches thrown by the particular pitcher. Maybe against a certain hitter, Justin Verlander's slider isn't nearly as effective as Charlie Morton's. Maybe the hitter changes his swing with two strikes, turning his hitting against the slider from a negative to less of one or to even a positive. Maybe with two strikes, he's more susceptible to the fastball.
The Astros have gone a step beyond the other teams' analytics and turned them into what one might call designer analytics. Certainly the he Astros' had baseball's best ERA in part because they have very good pitchers. But how much have the Astros' refined analytics helped those pitchers?
Justin Verland is a potential Hall of Famer. He's been GOOD. VERY good. But in 2017 when he was traded to the Astros, his ERA was 3.82. Since become an Astro, it's been 2.32. That's a reduction of a run and a half.
Garrett Cole had a 3.50 ERA with the Pirates and was coming off a 4.26 season. After being traded to the Astros a year ago, his ERA stands at 2.88.
Charlie Morton has fashioned a 3.36 ERA in his two seasons with Houston after going 4.15, 4.39 and 6.15 with his previous three teams.
Who knows how much difference these designer analytics helped those three guys? Maybe they haven't helped them at all. But it is a fact that those three pitchers improved a lot after they came to Houston within the past two seasons.
I remember years ago -- probably close to a decade -- when a writer at Baseball Prospectus wrote his final article, saying that he had moved on to the Astros to work in their analytics department. I remember sharing that here, but probably even I didn't give it enough credence, thinking that sure, he went to a baseball team, but it was a Houston team that wasn't very good. Well, I don't know how much if any impact the guy and his department had, but the Astros are good now. Very good.
We still don't know how Farhan Zaidi -- apparently in some circles being known merely as Farhan -- will do for the Giants. But he seems to have a broad base of support throughout baseball. I like his hiring -- a lot.
Maybe I'll be wrong, which in this case none of us would enjoy. But I'm going to go out on a limb and support Farhan. I realize others are going to take a wait and see attitude. I did at first as well. But by waiting, I've seen enough (support) already. I'm perfectly fine that the Giants have entrusted so much to him. In fact, I think the more the Giants entrust to him, the better he'll be.
Incidentally, one of the things he his known for is his balance between scouting and analytics. That puts him off to a good start right there -- and leads me to believe that he is likely to improve scouting, analytics and development, as has been my wish.
With better scoutingm, analytics and development, all the Giants need is results. And I believe they will follow.