Would you have traded Madison Bumgarner to the Yankees?

[rog]

I don't know that the Giants could have gotten as much from the Yankees for Madison Bumgarner as the Mariners received for James Paxson, but if it had been available, would you have traded Madison for Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson and Dom Thompson-Williams?

As an aside to the deal, the consensus of the voting at Trade Rumors was a "B" grade for the Yankees in the trade, and a "C" grade for the Mariners.  The Yankees are of course shooting for it all this season and next (hence the two years of control of Paxson), while the Mariners appear to be rebuilding as the Giants should.

Thompson-Williams appears to be a little away from the majors and may be only a fourth outfielder when he arrives, but both Sheffield and Swanson appear to have a shot at the Mariners rotation as soon as 2019.

Worth it for Madison?  If yes, then how much less would you have taken?  If no, how much more would you have wanted?

[Islandboagie]

Rog- I don't know that the Giants could have gotten as much from the Yankees for Madison Bumgarner as the Mariners received for James Paxson

Boagie- A team like the Yankees cares about post-season experience. I guarantee the Yankees would trade James Paxson for Bumgarner in a heartbeat. Bumgarner is an ace. Paxson isn't. In fact, I'm sure the Yankees inquired about Bumgarner before pulling the trigger on the Paxson deal. It's reasonable to assume the Giants are asking way too much

[rog]

Man, I would have made the Paxton trade for Madison in a heartbeat. The players the Mariners got for Paxton all involve a risk, but then every player -- including Paxson and Bumgarner -- involves a risk. My sense is that over the next say seven seasons the Mariners' new players will outperform either Paxton OR Bumgarner, and they might well do so as soon as 2019.

But if the young guys come CLOSE to Paxton or Bumgarner, they will be a far better value. And of course if the Giants hold on to Madison, they run the risk of getting nary a player for him. They might gamble and find a better supply and demand situation at the trade deadline, but if Madison continues to decline, they could wind up holding a big bag instead.

Since Paxton is under team control at favorable salaries two seasons to Madison's one, I don't think the Giants could have gotten the same haul the Mariners did, but if that was on the table and the Giants declined it, I would have been quite surprised. I just don't see Zaidi turning down that deal.

Boagie's point about Madison's previous value in the postseason is an excellent one, but let's not forget that Madison was a better pitcher then. And he also had the good fortune (at least in part) of pitching better in the postseason than he usually does in the regular season.

Here may be one way of looking at it: What are the chances Madison pitches in the postseason in 2019 with the Giants? What are the chances he pitches more than a round or two if he does pitch in the postseason?

The bottom line here may be that the Giants aren't good enough to need Madison.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- Man, I would have made the Paxton trade for Madison in a heartbeat. The players the Mariners got for Paxton all involve a risk, but then every player -- including Paxson and Bumgarner -- involves a risk. My sense is that over the next say seven seasons the Mariners' new players will outperform either Paxton OR Bumgarner, and they might well do so as soon as 2019.

Boagie- would you like to put some money on that?

[Islandboagie]

Rog- The bottom line here may be that the Giants aren't good enough to need Madison.

Boagie- That may be. They certainly haven't been good enough the last 2 seasons to need Madison. Although one could look at it as a situation of the Giants not being good because for an extended time they didn't have Madison.

I happen to think that Madison still has a lot left in the tank and the mediocre last two seasons from him are due to the DL stints rather than a growing trend of decline. I think he can bounce back, I also think he can be extended for a reasonable price, which we would have trouble finding a replacement in our system or in the free agent pool that would be as cost affective.

[rog]

Rog- Man, I would have made the Paxton trade for Madison in a heartbeat. The players the Mariners got for Paxton all involve a risk, but then every player -- including Paxson and Bumgarner -- involves a risk. My sense is that over the next say seven seasons the Mariners' new players will outperform either Paxton OR Bumgarner, and they might well do so as soon as 2019.

Boagie- would you like to put some money on that?


Rog-- Let's just make it a gentlemen's bet and hope we're both around in six or seven years to judge the results. Shall we use Baseball-Reference WAR as the measuring stick?

Even if Madison has slightly more WAR than the other three, having the other three would be significantly better because it would cost far less money than having Madison over the next six or seven years, thus leaving more money for players in free agency or trade. In addition, Madison's curve over that time is almost certainly headed down because of his age, whereas the curve of the other three players is almost certainly headed up, meaning they should peak when the Giants have the best chance to win -- after the arrivals of the young prospects they already have, plus their #10 overall pick in 2019 and possibly even a high draft pick in 2020.

But if we compare WAR's after six or seven years, I think the other three are more likely to be higher than Madison than vice versa.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4922/traded-madison-bumgarner-yankees#ixzz5XtJcI5NR

[rog]

I happen to think that Madison still has a lot left in the tank and the mediocre last two seasons from him are due to the DL stints rather than a growing trend of decline. I think he can bounce back, I also think he can be extended for a reasonable price, which we would have trouble finding a replacement in our system or in the free agent pool that would be as cost affective.


Rog -- You may be right in your analysis, and if the Giants keep him, I certainly hope you are. But I have read a lot of opinions that feel he is declining. One of them specifically said he has been in decline since the end of the 2015 season (which agrees with my own analysis), which would indicate much of the decline may be related to factors other than the injuries.

Here is a factor to consider: Madison may already be adjusting well to his loss of velocity. He throws his fastball at the same approximate speed Tim Lincecum threw his in 2012 and 2013, the two seasons he began his collapse. Last season Madison threw his fastball barely a third of the time. How much more can he go to his off-speed pitches as his fastball declines further in the future?





Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4922/traded-madison-bumgarner-yankees?page=1#ixzz5XtLcCcEp

[rog]

As for being extended at a reasonable price, Boagie, would you consider 6/$150 to be reasonable? That would be twice the annual rate he's being paid this season, and is far less than the 6/$206 Zack Greinke signed for with the Diamondbacks. Even at "just" 6/$150, Madison would need to pitch quite well to justify the contract.