Reduced but not eliminated

[rog]

Today the Yankees traded for Jim Paxton after re-signing fellow southpaw CC Sabathia.  That would seem to reduce their chances of trading for Madison, but not necessarily eliminate them altogether.  An article was written at MLB.com about the possibility that the Paxton move was one of many in the works for the Yankees this winter.

The reporting of the trade was a reporting portion of the article, but the examination of the possibility of more moves was editorial in nature.  I found both parts to be intriguing.

[rog]

The Mariners got a pretty nice return for Paxson. The Yankees' top prospect, an older but equally effective starter, and a hitter who suddenly discovered power last season.

A Canadian, Paxson is appropriately and intriguing nicknamed The Big Maple, and his trade return might give some indication of what the Giants might get for Bumgarner. Paxson will be under the Yankees' team control for two seasons compared to Madison's one, but Paxson has been beset by injuries and has pitched fewer than 420 innings the past three seasons. Of course, Bumgarner too has missed roughly half of each of the past two seasons with injuries.

And Bumgarner appears to be on a bit of a downward slide, while Paxson has been heading up. I doubt the Giants could have acquired Justin Sheffield, the Yankees' #1 prospect in trade, but I would be more interested in outielders anyway. I think I would have settled for Swanson, the older pitcher, and the Yankees' #2 prospect, an outfielder. I have no idea if that was on the table. Likely if the two teams talked to the degree that a serious offer was extended, the return to the Giants was less.

[Islandboagie]

The Yankees didnt give up much, a 6'0 pitcher with command issues and an outfielder that's projected as a 4th outfielder in the bigs.

[rog]

The key to the deal was Justus Sheffield, who immediately became the Mariners' #1 prospect. Sheffield is the fourth-ranked southpaw and the #31 prospect overall. Joey Bart is ranked #23 overall, so the key to the deal was a guy who was ranked close to the class of Joey Bart. Sheffield's weakness has been, as Boagie mentioned, control. In 2018 the 22-year-old walked 50 batters in 116 innings. He also yielded only 82 hits and four home runs while fashioning a 2.48 ERA and striking out 122. Sheffield is looked at as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

The player that intrigued me was fellow right-hander Erik Swanson, a 25-year-old who posted a 2.66 ERA last season, mostly in AA and AAA. He struck out 139 in 122 innings while walking 29 batters. Swanson projects as a bottom-of-the-rotation starter.

Outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams is a 23-year-old A Ball player who was #1 in the Yankees' organization in homers (22) and #3 in steals (20). He posted a .909 OPS, but I agree he looks like a fourth outfielder, although one with some possible upside.

In James Paxton, the Mariners gave up one of the top 10 southpaw starters in the game -- perhaps top five --, but one who has had difficulty staying healthy. He has pitched just under 150 innings per season the past two years, as he hit his stride with ERA's of 2.98 and 3.76 while striking out well over a batter per inning. The Yankees get two years of team control.

The deal makes fine sense for the competing Yankees, while also helping with the Mariners' apparent rebuilding effort. Although there were Yankees outfield prospects I was more interested in, I would have made the trade for Madison Bumgarner, although probably not for just Swanson and Thompson-Williams as I mentioned yesterday.

The bidding for Paxton was likely heavy, and with the deal being made early, the Mariners appear to be quite happy with their haul. The deal appears to have a high ceiling with a medium or above floor.

[rog]

Actually, my comment yesterday was that I would have taken Swanson and now #1 Yankees prospect outfielder Estevan Florial for Madison. I probably still would have, although I would also have asked for #13 prospect, 17-year-old outfielder Everson Pereira.

I would even have thrown in Evan Longoria if the Yankees included top prospect Sheffield!!!! And Chris Shaw, and Austin Slater, and Alen Hanson, and Pablo Sandoval, and Gorkys Hernandez, and Aramis Garcia, and Ray Black, and who knows whom? Heck, I'd give up half the roster to get rid of Longoria.

I'm wondering if it would behoove Farhan Zaidi, who I'm sure is chomping at the bit, to wait to see what falls out from some of the free agent signings, perhaps vulturing some of the fallout. If, for instance, the Yankees sign Manny Machado, that might free up #2 Rookie of the Year, third baseman Miguel Andujar. Andujar slices with the bat, but he also butchers the field. The latter said though, his bat would likely immediately become the Giants' best.

[rog]

The Giants have the #10 overall pick in the 2019 amateur free agent draft. The Braves slide in ahead of them at #9, as compensation for not signing the #8 overall pick in 2018.

As we know from the names Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner, the Giants have had outstanding success with the #10 overall pick. Another strong pick there next summer, and growth among the several young prospects discussed elsewhere, and the Giants' system could suddenly be respectable a year from now.

And, Randy, getting the now most major league ready starter in the organization and the starter with arguably the highest ceiling wasn't a bad return for Eduardo Nunez, was it? Yes, it took a little work to dig that information out a year-plus ago when the trade was made, but you had the information at your fingertips to take a more objective and informed approach to the deal.

I guess the question I would ask now is, would you rather have Eduardo Nunez, or Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos? Sixteen months ago you could have felt much better about the deal as well.

[rog]

In the case of a rebuild IMO, no Giant should be left off the trading table.

[klaiggeb]

Wish I could disagree, Rog, but I can't and don't.

Except I'd be willing the bet the proverbial farm that we WON'T do a complete rebuild.

I'm predicting that Bum, Joe, and Crawford are all back next year.

[Islandboagie]

It would seem the opinions on this board weigh heavily on the side of rebuilding, except for mine. Having two favorable draft picks in a row would already show there's a rebuild of our farm system in progress. If we can rebuild AND make a few moves to become competitive yet again, I like that choice above all others. Afterall, the Giants weren't really in "rebuild" mode before they won 3 championships, they were just in a position to have good picks. Now it's in the hands of Zaidi to deliver.

[rog]

I misspoke. If the Giants enter rebuilding mode, I'd be all OVER the trading table. But I would be almost entirely out of the free agent market.

As for what the Giants are likely to do, I think they're headed in the direction of a reload as you do. I think the reload could involve getting younger and that the Giants will be on the hunt for overlooked players as the Dodgers did with Max Muncy and Chris Taylor.

I'm guessing the Giants are going to try to reload this winter, and if it doesn't work out, switch to a rebuild as early as the trade deadline. I'd like to think they would go to a rebuild this winter if the reloading isn't working out the way they'd hoped, but I think that Faidi likely agreed to try retooling again for at least a season.

He may try a hybrid approach in which he trades veterans for major-league ready younger players who aren't as proven.

As for the three players mentioned, even in a rebuild I would consider it a positive to keep Joe Panik. Joe just turned 28, and he's coming off a down season. If his value were up, I would deal him, and I'd still be open to it if he could for instance be included as a piece of a bigger deal. One problem with my approach though is that if a team trades for Joe now, they acquire two years of his services. A year from now, barring an unlikely extension, the Giants would be offering just one.

As for Crawford, he has a full no-trade contract and grew up a Giants fan. I suspect one of his top goals is to be a Giant his entire career.

Madison almost MUST go if the right deal is on the table. Whom else can the Giants trade who has serious value? Want to change the face of the team? Trade Madison Bumgarner. Otherwise one would simply be putting on a different brand of makeup.

Sign Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, and the Giants change the face of their franchise. Otherwise they are limited in the scope of their actions. They might be able to sign a free agent pitcher or two who would be able to add some botox.

Let me ask this question: If the Giants rebuild, whom would you trade to jump start the movement? If they retool, which players would you trade? The top Giant hit .254 last season, and their best players aside from Madison will make a lot of money. Who would bring value in return?

The Giants have painted themselves into a bit of a short-term corner. Longer term I can see some possible ways out. I believe Zaidi is an excellent talent evaluator and is highly creative. But he's got very little to horse trade.

Last winter the Giants were extremely creative IMO. I gave them a "B" because I thought their creativity in getting out of a coat closet was admirable -- but they were headed in the wrong direction -- rebooting instead of tearing it down and starting afresh.

The Giants had almost no breathing room at all, and they created it by trading Matt Moore and the seemingly untradeable Denard Span. If we look at their trading philosophy, it was sound. The Giants had some young pitchers who might have been (and pretty much were) capable of replacing Matt. They had Steven Duggar on his way to replacing Span.

In Andrew McCutchen, they got a decent risk. While Andrew had already begun his decline phase, he looked like at the very least he might have a Final Spurt Year in him. The Giants limited their risk by committing to him for only one season.

Longoria was a much bigger risk. The commitment was five or six years, he had been declining for four years, and he was coming off a baffling season at the plate. Hope was provided by a rebound in 2016, but the hope appeared to be false hope.

Most fans would look at Longoria and be buoyed by his 2016 rebound and his 2017 Gold Glove. Those with a more analytical approach -- which would very likely have included Faidi but not Evans or Sabean -- could see the slope of the decline, both at bat and -- despite the Gold Glove -- in the field. They could see that Evan was a very different hitter in 2017 than he had been in 2016.

In short, while a scout may have overrated Evan, a sabermetrician was less likely to do so. Since we don't have access to the scouting reports, I can't say what the scouts were thinking. But I can say that while Evan's slugging percentage drop from .521 to .424 from 2016 to 2017 was bad enough, his drop from an expected .533 to an expected .415 showed not only that the decline was real, but that it may have been worse than it appeared.

Evan made more consistent contact in 2017, but it was directed in a much lower plane. He went from hitting 47% fly balls and 31% grounders in 2016 to 37% fly balls and 43% grounders in 2017. Evan's ground ball rate was easily the highest of his career, and his fly balls were by far his lowest. The trend in baseball was toward getting the ball in the air more, and Evan was falling sharply back to earth. Evan would reduce the direction change only slightly in 2018, when his 21 homers fell far more in line with his 22, 21 and 20 in three of the past four seasons than with his 36 homer rebound in 2016.

With Evan's fielding falling once again, the Giants got just about what they should have expected from a 32-year-old corner infielder who had been declining since 2013. I think it's safe to say the scouts were likely fooled. The more analytical types were not.

Ideally with Faidi, the Giants have a more appropriate blend of scouting and statistcs. Hopefully they will beef up both departments. I think Faidi is smart enough to do both.

[rog]

You make a good point, Boagie, and one I was glad to see, since it does encourage me if the Giants DON'T immediately rebuild.

On the plus side of your direction, the Giants appear to have beefed up their farm system a bit already, or at least acquired more high-ceiling players, several of them 19 or younger. But several of them ARE 19 or younger, meaning a likely arrival time of 2021 or 2022.

The Giants have drafted a high-ceiling, low-floor first rounder in Ramos, followed by a solid to excellent prospect in Joey Bart. They have the #10 overall pick in 2019. But they've still got a way to go to equal Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey and Wheeler. And if they received another high pick in 2020, their rebuilding for 2019 will have failed.

Let's applaud the Giants' scouting from 2006 (Lincecum) through 2009 (Wheeler), but also admit that they likely got lucky as well as good. Few teams with four consecutive picks in the top 10 have fared as well as the Giants. Remember, in the 2007 draft, the Giants had five of the top 52 picks and could have cemented themselves for a decade. Only Bumgarner amounted to anything, providing the very mixed blessing of the Giants hitting a home run with the #10 overall pick but fanning on the other four high picks.

I still favor rebuilding, Boagie, but you've made me a little more comfortable with the idea of retooling -- especially if the Giants can avoid long commitments and be prepared to turn on a dime if the retooling isn't working out. With the exception of Longoria, last winter didn't turn out horribly, but the Giants failed to move significantly forward either.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- In short, while a scout may have overrated Evan, a sabermetrician was less likely to do so.

Boagie- Evan was leading the Giants in homeruns and RBIs when he went down with the injury. Longoria was not at fault for the Gianrs struggles last season. Other than his time on the DL and his slow start when returning from the injury, he was actually quite good at the plate.

[rog]

I have mentioned that Evan appears to have hit in a little bad luck, but he got off to a horrible start to the season, and when he was injured, he was hitting just .244 with a .434 slugging percentage. He came back strongly immediately after the injury, but overall after the injury, he hit .241 with a .388 slugging percentage.

After August 5th, he hit just .214 with a .319 SLG.

See how the memory can play tricks, Boagie? Most of Evan's good hitting last season came immediately after his return. He hit a robust .357 with a .690 in his first week and a half back, but then as mentioned, fell to just .214/.319 the rest of the way.

As you point out though, Evan was only one of many who contributed to the Giants' disappointing season. Evan's disappointing season pales in comparison with the remainder of his contract. He is still owed a minimum of $73 million, although I believe the Rays are picking up a small percentage of that amount. $11 million, it turns out.

If the Giants don't exercise their option on Longoria for the 2023 season, and the Giants don't make the postseason in 2022, Evan's Giants career will end right before his 37th birthday. If the Giants exercise the option and make the playoffs in 2023, it will end just after Evan has turned 38.

In his first six seasons in the majors, Evan performed at a level between All-Star and Hall of Fame. In his five seasons since, he has played at the level of a solid starter, but a declining one.

Maybe Evan has one Final Spurt Year left, but it is hard to see much more than that. The likelihood that Evan will earn his contact as a Giant -- even with the salary contribution of the Rays -- seems slim.

On the flip side, Evan would appear to be an excellent candidate for increased launch angle. I realize that there is considerable prejudice here against that approach, but in part it went from Ted Williams to Kris Bryant's father to Kris himself. If Ted Williams was at the root of the approach, it's probably not too bad.

In fact, I'd venture that if it weren't considered part of the analytics movement, it might be pretty well received here. Certainly the results have been there with quite a few players, some of whom have turned their careers around.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- See how the memory can play tricks, Boagie? Most of Evan's good hitting last season came immediately after his return. He hit a robust .357 with a .690 in his first week and a half back, but then as mentioned, fell to just .214/.319 the rest of the way.

Boagie- No. MOST of Evans's good hitting came in April and May when he accumulated 10 homeruns and 30 RBIs. Do you really consider a week and a half after he came back as MOST of his good hitting when he was good in all of April and May?

MOST of his homeruns came in April and May, MOST of his RBIs came in April and May. But you're going to cherry pick one week to attempt to prove a point which I already know not to be accurate.

What were you saying about correctly analyzing statistics? You don't do it. You cherry pick only to start an argument.

[rog]

You're right, Boagie. Evan was horrible to start the season, and he was bad in June until his injury, but from mid-April through the end of May, he was good. I missed that.

When you said thought that "other than his time on the DL and his slow start when returning from the injury, he was actually quite good at the plate," you might have mischaracterized his return from the injury.

I definitely missed the month and a half I finally caught up with above. If we take out Evan's return right after the injury, though, he hit only .233 with a .393 SLG.

I think you were more right than I gave you credtit for except that Evan's return from the injury was actually quite strong initially.

One way to look at Evan's season is that if we took out the month and a half from mid-April to the end of May, and the 11 days right after Evan's return, he had a HORRIBLE season. It's true with every player that if one removes a good part of a season, it degrades significantly, but in Evan's case, he played so poorly overall that if we removed shall we say "your" period and "my" period, he was just awful.





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