Post by rog on Nov 15, 2018 4:07:22 GMT -5
By coincidence, Bill James listed some pitchers who had successfully recreated themselves when they began to lose their fastball. The best pitchers on the list were Bert Blyleven, the aforementioned Robin Roberts, Jim Kaat, Jack Morris, Dave Martinez, Frank Tanana and former Giant Rick Reuschel. Here are how well those pitchers lived up from age 31 to age 36 to the likely amounts to be paid to Madison.
This time I'll just give judgments, not go into each season's ERA. If you'd like details, just ask. Or look them up.
Blyleven -- Falls a little short. Reasonably close though. Would be far from disasterous.
Roberts -- As discussed previously, no.
Kaat -- Very close, but I would say yes.
Morris -- Not a disaster, but no.
Martinez -- Close, but no.
Tanana -- Signing him would really hurt. Definitely no.
Reuschel -- This is kind of a tough one to call at first -- until I realized he pitched only 113 combined innings in three of the season. Rick pitched very well in his three full seasons, but it isn't nearly enough. Definitely no.
So what we've got here is a group of seven pretty good pitchers -- three of them in the Hall of Fame and one (Kaat) who could have (and likely eventually will) make it, but fell just short performance-wise and well short vote-wise. Only one of the seven (Kaat) pitched well enough to justify the contract Madison will likely receive (assuming he pitches well this season. If he doesn't pitch well, he becomes a big gamble.)
Re-signing Madison in a retooling situation likely doesn't make sense, and re-signing in a rebuilding effort almost certainly doesn't. The more comps we use for Madison -- those who are considered to have successfully made the transition from thrower to pitcher -- the less likely it looks that he will earn his next contract.
Most expensive free agents don't. Look at these $100+ million contracts for pitchers: Mike Hampton, Barry Zito, CC Sabathia, Matt Cain, Justin Verlander, Johann Santana, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Kevin Brown, Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer. Not a very good track record on those.
Madison would be defying significant odds if he earns his next pact. Maybe he's the guy to do it. But I'd rather have a strong outfield prospect who is at least half a dozen years younger than he. If the Giants are going to rebuild, I would call it pretty close to a no-brainer.
Too much risk. Too much money. Too many other big, long contracts (Posey, Crawford, Belt, Cueto, Samardzija, Longoria and Melancon). The money the Giants have committed to those guys alone is more than the payroll of many of the teams in baseball. Add Madison to it? To guys that are all in their 30's or close to it?
Remember, better and younger are the goals. A good, young prospect for Madison could fulfill both goals. Madison cannot fulfill the younger part, and he might not fulfill the better portion either.
This time I'll just give judgments, not go into each season's ERA. If you'd like details, just ask. Or look them up.
Blyleven -- Falls a little short. Reasonably close though. Would be far from disasterous.
Roberts -- As discussed previously, no.
Kaat -- Very close, but I would say yes.
Morris -- Not a disaster, but no.
Martinez -- Close, but no.
Tanana -- Signing him would really hurt. Definitely no.
Reuschel -- This is kind of a tough one to call at first -- until I realized he pitched only 113 combined innings in three of the season. Rick pitched very well in his three full seasons, but it isn't nearly enough. Definitely no.
So what we've got here is a group of seven pretty good pitchers -- three of them in the Hall of Fame and one (Kaat) who could have (and likely eventually will) make it, but fell just short performance-wise and well short vote-wise. Only one of the seven (Kaat) pitched well enough to justify the contract Madison will likely receive (assuming he pitches well this season. If he doesn't pitch well, he becomes a big gamble.)
Re-signing Madison in a retooling situation likely doesn't make sense, and re-signing in a rebuilding effort almost certainly doesn't. The more comps we use for Madison -- those who are considered to have successfully made the transition from thrower to pitcher -- the less likely it looks that he will earn his next contract.
Most expensive free agents don't. Look at these $100+ million contracts for pitchers: Mike Hampton, Barry Zito, CC Sabathia, Matt Cain, Justin Verlander, Johann Santana, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Kevin Brown, Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer. Not a very good track record on those.
Madison would be defying significant odds if he earns his next pact. Maybe he's the guy to do it. But I'd rather have a strong outfield prospect who is at least half a dozen years younger than he. If the Giants are going to rebuild, I would call it pretty close to a no-brainer.
Too much risk. Too much money. Too many other big, long contracts (Posey, Crawford, Belt, Cueto, Samardzija, Longoria and Melancon). The money the Giants have committed to those guys alone is more than the payroll of many of the teams in baseball. Add Madison to it? To guys that are all in their 30's or close to it?
Remember, better and younger are the goals. A good, young prospect for Madison could fulfill both goals. Madison cannot fulfill the younger part, and he might not fulfill the better portion either.