Avisial Garcia

[rog]

The White Sox are considering non-tendering 27-year-old outfielder Avisial Garcia.  If so, he should be available in trade at a small cost.  I know very little about Garcia except that he had a fine 2017 season and was alternately injured, hot, and cold last season.  And that the Giants can desperately use an outfielder or two or three.

Any interest?

[klaiggeb]

Avisial is a player I followed for a while, and upon whom I gave up.

Then he promptly turned his career around 2 years ago.

Strong armed RF, with above average power.

He WOULD fit in well in RF for us.

[klaiggeb]

I said last year, Rog, I really meant 2017.

He's always been strike out guy who struggled to make contact.

That's why I gave up on him 2 or 4 years ago.

[rog]

Garcia hit .330 in 2017, but he seems to have been lucky to do so. He fell almost 100 points last season, but his luck seemed a bit bad then. Ability-wise, he's probably pretty close to his .271 average.

I didn't get interested in him until last summer when he had an exceptional 14-game stretch when he went 21 for 60 with nine home runs. As a fantasy player, that gets my attention.

What I see in him now that I look more closely is that while he doesn't strike out an inordinate amount, he has an extremely high swing-and-miss rate. Because he's aggressive enough not to get to two strikes more than half the time, he doesn't strike out as much as one might expect from his lack of contact.

But he swings nearly as wildly as Pablo, and his contract rate dropped in 2018. He doesn't walk enough. He seems to have good speed, but isn't a very good base runner. His throwing seems OK for a right fielder, but nothing exceptional.

He's projected to make $8 million in arbitration this winter, and he's eligible for free agency a year from now. I brought him up as an idea, and I'm still open to more positive thoughts on him, but at this point I wouldn't be in -- whether in a rebuild or a retool.

He's a player on whom I would, like Boly, keep an eye, but I'm not convinced he's what the Giants need. He's clearly better than most of the outfielders the Giants have had lately though. And at 27, he still has time to grow. And he does have the positive of having shown the past two seasons the two highest hard-hit rates of his career.

Overall though, he's a no for me. But I'm glad I brought him up. I learned some things from Boly, I was forced to look up some things myself, and I'm hoping I'll learn even more from others.

[sfgdood]

There are lots of Avisal Garcias out there...it's a question of finding one that will continue to build on 2017 and not remain hot and cold as in 2018

[rog]

Garcia did have significant injury problems in 2018. In a way that makes him less valuable, but it may also help explain the peaks and valleys.

Whom do you recommend, Randy, and why? How much do you think it would take to acquire him?

[klaiggeb]

I still think Avisial would be a decent add.

As I pointed out earlier, he can run some, has a STRONG arm, and is a career RF who can cover some ground.

Would I make a big push for him?

No, but I'd check him out.

Might there be better options?

Sure, but I have no idea who fits the bill better...+ he won't be very expensive.

[rog]

With a projected arbitration award, Avisail isn't likely to come cheaply, but as you point out, Boly, he won't cost the farm, either.

In a rebuilding situation he likely doesn't make sense, since he has only two more years of team control left. In his four seasons with 385 or more plate appearances, he has hit .257, .245, .330 and .236. The .330 is intriguing, but it's looking like the outlier.

In the 2017 season in which he hit .330, Avisail's Batting Average on Balls In Play was .392, a full 62 points higher than his career mark of .330. Another sign that the .330 was probaby an aberration.

In 2017, Garcia's Wins Above Replacement were at an All-Star level, and he was indeed voted an All-Star. But over the rest of his career he's been rated as essentially a replacement-level player.

The fielding metrics don't treat him kindly, nor do his base running metrics. In the annual fan poll of defense, his average on arm strength has been close to Hunter Pence, but his accuracy and particularly release have ranked lower. Hunter has the higher overall fielding rating.

I was the one who brought Avisail up as a possibilty (maybe I just liked his name!), but I'm just not seeing it. He did have what was considered successful arthroscopic surgery on his knee on October, and despite just 385 plate appearances he hit a career high 19 homers. On the field, I prefer Addison Russell, because of potential and especially defense.

[rog]

In a retool situation, I would consider Avisail but probably not trade for him. In a rebuild, he would mostly get in the way IMO.