My first free agent idea

[rog]

When Farhan Zaidi gets down to business at the GM meeting a month or so from now, he'll be considering everything from building his staff, to setting out the Giants' new philosophy, to trades and to free agent signings.  Here is my first signing recommendation (based on reloading, not rebuilding):

Anibal Sanchez

I first became intrigued by Sanchez when the Giants played the Tigers in the 2012 World Series.  In 2013 he led the AL with a 2.57 ERA.  Since then, he has fallen on hard times and had a hard time staying healthy.

Signed to a minor league contract by the Twins, Sanchez was released on March 11th.  Five days later he was signed by the Braves.  After a fine start, Sanchez missed about a month and a half before coming back to post a 2.83 ERA.  He allowed three or fewer runs in 20 of his 24 starts.

The reason for his bounce back?  He tripled the use of his cutter, throwing it one out of every four pitches rather than using it as an afterthought.

You guys don't think the analitic types I often read know what baseball is all about, but here is what Jeff Zimmerman wrote prior to last season: 

"ANIBAL SANCHEZ.  The 34-year-old righty was a target for improvement last season and a new mix helped him. By decreasing the usage of his sinker and slider, he could throw his effective pitches more often. Going forward, he could just drop the slider and sinker."  Sanchez cut his slider usage by half and his sinker usage by more than half, tripling his use of the cutter.

The resultant 2.83 ERA was a bounce back toward his fine 2013 season.

Sanchez is 35 now, so a team won't have to commit to him for a long term, which could be a good fit for a reloading/rebuilding team.  MLB Trade Rumors ranks Sanchez as their #28 free agents and predicts the Giants will sign him for 2/$22.  Most think the Giants are more likely to re-sign Derek Holland, but why not sign them both and leverage their existing pitching for outfielders?

Anyone got a better idea?

[rog]

One of the things I like best about Sanchez is that over his career he has allowed only 2 out of 7 balls to be hit hard. He's just ahead of the career rate of Madison Bumgarner, who rose to 2 out of 5 balls being hit hard last season.

Madison's hard hit rate has risen each of the past three seasons. Sanchez's was rising too -- until he greatly increased the use of his cutter last season and brought it down just below his career rate.

Signing Sanchez for two years would add another good rotation piece without a commitment that might get in the way of the Giants' internal development of starters for the future.

Sanchez isn't the only good mid-level free agent pitcher out there. I think that category may have the most depth of any group in the market.

[klaiggeb]

Sorry, Roger, but the last thing we need is another 34 year player/pitcher on the team.

We're not going to win now, Zaidi has made that clear.

He wants to put a team in place that will/can win for years to come...and a 34 year old, IMHO, ain't that guy.

We already have 2 of those guys; Jeffy and Johnny, both of whom turn 34 in January and February of next year IF my math is correct.

[Islandboagie]

I agree, Boly. We certainly don't need another middle aged pitcher.

[klaiggeb]

If Bobby E. were still steering the ship, you can bet we'd be hot on his trail.

As well as the trails of:

Carlos Gonzalez, A (can't stay healthy) J. Pollack and other aging players.

[rog]

Sorry, Roger, but the last thing we need is another 34 year player/pitcher on the team.

We're not going to win now, Zaidi has made that clear.


Rog -- I hadn't read Zaidi's comment, but that makes me like even more. Regardless of how good Zaidi is, at least he seems to be smart enough to choose the right direction.

My recommendation was based solely on trying to reboot. And my reboot plan was based on leveraging pitching free agent signings to free up pitching to be traded for much-needed outfielders. My recommendation with rebuilding is virtually no free agents at all, unless that would enable a trade of a veteran for a young outfielder or two.





Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4901/first-free-agent-idea#ixzz5WhWVdIfE

[rog]

Pollock is still 30, so he might be young enough to contribute when the Giants are good again, but I doubt he would want to play here, and as you guys have already mentioned, he's probably too old and fragile.

If the Giants are going to rebuild, it seems to me the proper direction is to leverage existing assets in order to build the outfield and get younger.

Regarding outfielders, the Giants pushed Heliot Ramos up to Low A ball last season. While I doubt he'll initially will immediately skip another and will be promoted only one level to San Jose, but he might be promoted again during the season. If he can play well at San Jose though, that would be a very nice accomplishment for the 19-year-old.

On the surface Ramos didn't hit as well last season, but he did cut his high strikeout rate a bit. Not a bad accomplishment to accompany a skipping of one level.

[rog]

If the Giants rebuild, trading pitchers for outfielders gets the Giants ahead of the game. Ramos is the only high-quality prospect for the outfield, and he is probably at least two years away.

While the Giants might then fall behind in pitching, they can usually fortify that position with free agents, who seem much more willing to come to SF than hitters do (for obvious reasons). We've long said that the Giants need to develop position players from within, but with their dearth of position prospects aside from Ramos and Joey Bart, they can fill the cupboard via trades for young position players and then fill in at a later time through free agency and/or trades for whatever pitchers are needed.

That gives the Giants time to further develop young pitchers they have at the major league level and coming up through the system. As they sometimes say in Spring Training, the pitchers seem to be ahead of the hitters.

[Islandboagie]

Pollock is good, but he's about as injury prone as it gets.

[klaiggeb]

Which is why he would be a terrible pick up, IMHO.

Now IF we had a good team in place...he might be worth the shot, much like Ellis Burks was, years ago.

But we don't have that team, and that makes him someone we don't want, nor need.

[rog]

If the Giants rebuild, you guys are unquestionably right. Even if they retool, you probably are, depending on the price.

One thing to remember, especially with a team with the huge guaranteed salary the Giants face each season is that it isn't only whether a player is good or not, but his VALUE. As is the case with us when we are making a major purchase, price is important.

I have mentioned before that if the Giants rebuild, I can't see signing almost any free agent.

If they retool though, a strategy such as I read this morning that the Yankees are considering could make sense. As I have mentioned, that strategy is leveraging a free agent acquisition to allow another player at that same position to be traded for a position of need.

The Yankees are considering trading #2 Rookie of the Year Miguel Andujar in a deal for a top pitcher if they sign Manny Machado. If the Giants signed Santana, they could consider trading one or more of their pitchers for a much-needed outfielder.

Since Boly has indicated that Farhan Zaidi has thankfully elected to rebuild, the question arises as to what to do with Madison Bumgarner. The Nationals almost made a deal with the Astros at the deadline that would have given them a pretty nice package. But they elected to keep Harper, who turned down their 10/$300 million offer to re-sign and will now net the Nationals virtually nothing if he signs with another team.

The Giants run that same risk with Bumgarner a year from now, although in a rebuild situation I believe they would likely received a #1 pick in 2020, which would be useful. But the pick wouldn't be a high one, and even with high picks there is plenty of risk involved. Maybe with the improved scouting and analytics I am recommending, the Giants would improve their chances of making a successful pick.

But if the market for Bumgarner is there this winter, I would trade him, preferably for a young outfielder. The value received would need to be strong, but the market for Harper at this last deadline indicates that might well be the case.

The Giants can also elect to keep Madison until next year's trade deadline. If he bounces back from what has thus far been a contained fall, his value could be as high or possibly even higher (if he were having a Cy Young type of season). But if his decline continues (or worse, accelerates), his value for a third of a season would obviously be FAR less than it would be for a full season in a deal made this winter.

Of course, the Giants might be able to re-sign if they keep him (or even if they don't, for that matter). But should they? He'll be 30 when he is eligible for free agency. Let's say the Giants believe they can be a contender again by 2021. If they re-sign Madison for say 7/$200 (which if he pitches well this season would be a bargain), they would be receiving his age 30 through age 36 seasons.

The age 30 season wouldn't be all that important unless the Giants were able to contend a year earlier than they expect. That would mean the Giants would be benefiting most from his age 31 through age 36 seasons. What might they expect from those seasons?

Let's use Warren Spahn and Robin Roberts, two Hall of Fame pitchers Boly mentioned who rebuilt their careers by becoming pitchers instead of relying primarily on their velocity. And let's consider CC Sabathia, who I think might be a good modern-day comp. Let's also consider Gary Nolan, whom Baseball-Reference lists as Madison's best comp over Madison's career. And let's consider Fergie Jenkins, whom Baseball-Reference lists as Madison's best comp at age 28 (having just completed his age 28 season).

Spahn is a no-brainer. His age 31 through 36 ERA's were 2.98, 2.10, 3.14, 3.26, 2.78 and 2.69. If Madison is Warren
Spahn, sign him ASAP at almost any price.

Roberts, despite being a Hall of Fame pitcher, is likely a no. His ERA's were 3.24, 4.27, 4.02, 5.85, 2.78 and 3.33. There would be some value there, but even though Roberts is a Hall of Fame pitcher who was able to reinvent himself, Robin wouldn't have been worth the money Madison is likely to command.

Sabathia would have been a no. 3.38, 4.78, 5.28, 4.73, 3.91 and 3.69.

Nolan would have been a horrible no if we're talking about this winter, and if we're talking about next winter, he never pitched again beyond that age. Gary posted a 3.46 ERA and went 15-9 in 239 innings during his age 28 season, but was injured and struggled to a 6.08 ERA at age 29, and never pitched again in the majors. Nolan would be a disaster, but while his situation isn't impossible for Madison, it seems unlikely.

Jenkins is another Hall of Famer. Fergie would have been a close call either way, although probably not quite worth the money IMO. He went 2.82, 3.93, 3.27, 3.68, 3.04 and 4.07.

To review, if Madison is Spahn, bring it on. If he is Roberts, not a disaster, but not worth the money. If he is Sabathia, no. If he is Nolan, God help us. Other than to keep in mind such a disaster is possible, I think we should remove Nolan from our consideration. Jenkins, another Hall of Famer, seems close, but no cigar.

So we've looked at Madison through the prism of Spahn, Roberts, Sabathia and Jenkins. Three Hall of Famers, and Bill James gives Sabathia an 8% chance at the Hall. (He pegs Madison's chances at less than 1%, although a bounce back with longevity from Madison could allow his outstanding postseason work to get him there -- my comment.)

Out of the four, Spahn would be a tremendous win. The other three would be no-goes, although only Nolan was a complete disaster, so much so that we're no longer considering him.

Here is how I would approach the situation. If the Giants are going to rebuild, I would keep Madison only if he could be extended this winter to a bargain pact. If they are going to reload, I would be looking for a hometown discount, but nothing compared to the extremely team-friendly contract Madison is coming from.

I think to keep this in perspective, it's important to remember that two Hall of Famers -- Roberts and Jenkins -- wouldn't have been worth the money, and a possible Hall of Famer in Sabathia wouldn't have been worth it either. In other words age, decline and injury issues (even though not the usual injuries a pitcher fears) make Madison a much bigger risk than some perceive.

If the Giants re-sign Madison, we're likely not talking about the Bumgarner we all love. We're likely talking about a pitcher who is declining with age. If that decline is small, Madison might be worth the money. If the decline is easily noticeable, we're likely talking about a deal that would fall short of expectations.

So with the new regime falling into place, how would the Giants evaluate the situation. They certainly have far more sophistication and available information than I, but here is how I would approach it:

First, what do my scouts think? Might they be biased? How about the new scouts I'd be hiring? How do they see Madison's future?

Second, I'd naturally look at the metrics. They're not very favorable. The two ERA projections I've seen for Madison in 2019 -- let alone 2021 through 2016 -- are for 3.74 and 3.92 ERA's. I've already mentioned the several negatives, including declining velocity. The effectiveness of his fastball and slider have declined significantly since 2015. His curve ball and change up have help up pretty well, although they were far less valuable pitches to begin with.

I've mentioned Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) before. It's an estimation of how effective a pitcher's pitching has been aside from the varying results of fielding. It has been shown to better predict future ERA than past ERA does. That's kind of important.

Madison's ERA's have been a very consistent 3.00, 3.21, 3.37, 2.77, 2.98, 2.93, 2.74, 3.32 and 3.26. But his FIP has eroded the past three seasons. His FIP has been 3.66, 2.67, 3.50, 3.05, 3.05, 2.87, 3.24, 3.95 and 3.99.

I don't know what the scouts are saying about Madison. My guess is that with his two best pitches declining in value, they're seeing a decline. His metrics are in decline.

If the Giants were to re-sign Madison right now, at best the balance would be the scouts seeing him as about equal and the metrics seeing him in decline. We see that even with Hall of Famers, a significant enough bounce back doesn't seem likely.

Two reasons not to trade Madison have been advanced:

. He might bounce back. IMO he certainly might, but the odds seem against it.

. He would help the young pitchers grow. Indeed he might, but it seems to me the Giants have other veteran pitchers to offer advice. As well as a pitching coach and a bullpen coach. The manager is a former catcher. The cagey Bob Tewksbury is at the ready.

To me, the arguments for keeping Madison if the Giants are trying to retool are iffy, and the arguments for keeping him if they're rebuilding are insignificant.

If the Giants can get value for Madison, IMO they'd be bums not to. And I think Zaidi is smarter than that.

[rog]

A thought for Zaidi: Perhaps with Zaidi's analytical background, it might be wise to hire a more traditional GM. That's not what Andrew Friedman did, instead hiring Zaidi as GM, but I believe Friedman kept Ned Colletti around. I guess Brian Sabean will be around, and possibly even Bobby Evans in a lesser role, so maybe a traditional GM isn't necessary. But I think it's at least worth consideration.