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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 27, 2018 10:38:18 GMT -5
It is no secret that I will miss Hunter after this season.
Watching the pregame 3 up, and 3 down with Amy G. was emotional for me.
In these last games, you can see that Hunter has something left in the tank.
How much, I don't know, and certainly not a starter any more.
But in a perfect world... a perfect world, what I'd like to see happen is this:
1-Hunter goes to work with the "swing doctor," and has results like Mac did.
2-He goes to play winter ball and proves he can still hit.
3-He comes back to US next year for CONSIDERABLY less money as a 5th outfielder and pinch hitter.
I think he's that important to our youngsters. I really do.
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rog
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Post by rog on Sept 27, 2018 18:29:38 GMT -5
Makes sense, but Hunter would want to play for the Giants enough to be paid as a reserve, and the Giants would need to agree with your philosophy here. Nice idea, and we can hope. Hunter's value would need to be as a teacher, unless he can learn to hit. I'm not sure changing the plane of his swing will help enough, although we can hope.
Maybe the Giants should simply hire Hunter as a coach, so he doesn't take up a spot that otherwise would go to someone like Austin Slater or even a minor pickup over the winter.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 27, 2018 23:00:31 GMT -5
According to Hunter, he WANTS to learn that stroke, have a good winter campaign and come BACK to the Giants next year.
His words.
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rog
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Post by rog on Sept 28, 2018 2:14:57 GMT -5
My feeling since 2012 has been that Hunter LOVES being a Giant and would love to retire a Giant. His return to the Giants would seem to depend on factors such as which direction the Giants go, how well his launch angle change works, and how littel he would be willing to take to return.
I'm sure the Giants would love to have a returned-to-hitting Hunter Pence back, but there would seem to be other factors at work as well.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 28, 2018 9:18:28 GMT -5
Of course there are.
But remember my quote: "But in a perfect world... a perfect world, what I'd like to see happen is this:"
In a perfect world.
That means I had already factored in what you pointed out.
Of course, no matter how good his work goes, no way I give a 36 year old 18 million! ( think that's what he's been playing for)
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 28, 2018 18:04:46 GMT -5
We need to show him the door. The strategy of sentimentality is what got us in the mess we're in. Tell him to go back to singing lead for the Spin Doctors
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rog
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Post by rog on Sept 28, 2018 19:12:35 GMT -5
Intriguingly, Hunter's warmup swing would give him too MUCH lift.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 28, 2018 21:03:59 GMT -5
You've got to have a PH off the bench. Preferably a veteran.
If he reworks everything and IF he comes back strong, a 5th outfielder and PH is a good, and inexpensive role for him.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 28, 2018 21:14:23 GMT -5
Next year shouldn't be about winning...it should be about rebuilding and development. Let Hunter go someplace where he should get better opportunities for playing time and postseason.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 29, 2018 10:53:23 GMT -5
Keeping Hunter would be about development, Randy.
The kids continue to rave about how much he's helped them.
Add to the fact the way he prepares for each game, and manages to keep an even keel about everything.
A team as young as you'd like NEEDS that veteran presence.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 29, 2018 11:51:16 GMT -5
the main reason I don't want him around is that Bochy will want to keep putting him on the field out of loyalty.
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Post by Islandboagie on Sept 29, 2018 14:24:01 GMT -5
I agree with Randy.
Now if we had a championship caliber team, sure, stick him on the bench for pinch hitting roles, but as it is, having Hunter on the bench just takes away from another youngster getting playing time.
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rog
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Post by rog on Sept 29, 2018 20:57:43 GMT -5
I believe it will become a financial issue. Fifth outfielders don't quite make the $18 million Hunter made this season. Of course he wouldn't be expecting as much either, but the cut would need to be huge.
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 29, 2018 21:13:55 GMT -5
But boagie, the Giants WON'T want a kid sitting the bench, playing once/week, and Pinch Hitting.
That's a job for a leadership/veteran, not a kid.
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Post by Islandboagie on Sept 29, 2018 21:41:30 GMT -5
It's not the same as those championship years anymore, Boly, if things stay the same as they are now, any youngster will get plenty of playing time whether he's a starter or bench player. The reason why you prefer veterans on the bench on a championship team is because they likely have good starters at all positions and playing time for bench players is limited to pinch hitting and defensive replacement roles.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 29, 2018 23:31:43 GMT -5
If not a kid, there will be plenty of scrubs with no contracts this offseason that wont cost much
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 30, 2018 14:16:37 GMT -5
Remember, my idea to resign Hunter was contingent upon 2 things:
1-He shows in Winter Ball that he can still play
2-He SIGN FOR LITTLE MONEY; 1=3 million
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Sept 30, 2018 14:26:52 GMT -5
But no matter what he makes, Bochy will have a sentimental attachment to him and it will cost young players valuable playing time and experience. Just take away that temtation
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Post by klaiggeb on Sept 30, 2018 18:01:23 GMT -5
Your point is a darned good one, Randy.
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Post by rxmeister on Oct 1, 2018 12:03:57 GMT -5
Totally agree with Randy, and that doesn’t happen very often! Certainly the Giants agree, because they acted this week like it was the end of the road for Pence with the Giants. Looking at his numbers this year, it’s certainly time, although I love the guy and hope he’ll do well wherever he goes. I briefly met his wife when the Giants came to New York last year, as she liked my Giants world championship jacket and asked me where I got it, and she’s as great a person as he is. I’ll miss them, but it’s time to move on. A new head of baseball ops will have no sentimental attachment to the championship years, and I think that’s needed here. Pence hit .226 this year with 4 homeruns, how much more do you have to see. He said he’s going to work with the coach who changed Justin Turner and Mac Williamson’s swing, and I hope it helps him.
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rog
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Post by rog on Oct 1, 2018 21:17:20 GMT -5
I certainly wouldn't rule Hunter out, but the practicality is that he'll probaby move one. I imagine he'll sign a major league contact, but unless he mames significant progress over the winter, it's also possible a minor league pact is all he will command.
Likely a team in contention will like his remaining ability, hustle and leadership, perhaps in inverse order.
I'm wondering, Boly, if the launch angle/exit velocity works for Hunter, will you give more credence to the approach? Remember, all it is is hitting the ball harder in the air, but launch angle and exit velocity help provide feedback on its progress.
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Post by klaiggeb on Oct 2, 2018 9:32:53 GMT -5
Launch angle would help Hunter, who hit more balls on the ground this year, or at least not high fly balls, than I've ever seen before. In fact, I was stunned at how many balls didn't get into the air.
But that said, changing a swing is not easy.
Hunter, however, is the kind of guy motivated to do it.
But my question is this; He tried to make the change in the minors with close to 50 at bats... and it didn't take.
Why?
Perhaps his 'built in mechanics' will not work with that kind of a swing.
I really don't know, but it's worth a try.
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rog
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Post by rog on Oct 2, 2018 13:00:37 GMT -5
Hunter is an extremely motivated and motivational player. That could help him in his quest to improve his launch angle. He may not have had enough time over the summer. Here is an intriguing coincidence regarding Hunter. I mentioned that the new emphasis on launch angle and exit velocity is simply a refinement in measuring hitting the ball hard in the air. Another thing metrics are useful for is measuring happenings more precisely. Here is the coincidence. It SEEMED that this past summer Hunter hit the ball on the ground more than ever, but that was likely because we were made more aware of it by his work to get the ball in the air more. Hunter actually REDUCED his ground balls from 58% in 2017 to 50% last season. We would say we SAW him hit more balls on the ground this year than ever before. We would say we saw hit at least not high fly balls, yet he has been around 29% fly balls each season since 2015. We would be correct though if we said that Hunter hit the ball HIGHER in the air in 2017 than in 2018. He hit more line drives in 2018 though than in 2017. One of the beauties of analytics is that they allow us to check how well we remember our observations. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4840/hunter-pence#ixzz5SnTRl9nb
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rog
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Post by rog on Oct 2, 2018 13:36:09 GMT -5
So how about Christian Yelich? He's considered the strong favorite for the NL MVP, something we couldn't have predicted a year ago. Christian hit twice as many home runs this year (36) as he did last season (18).
Last winter I mentioned that Yelich wouldn't be hurt as much by AT&T as a lot of hitters because, while hitting left-handed would be a bigger disadvantage at AT&T, he was primarily a ground ball hitter, meaning he would be far less affected them most lefty hitters with some power. He also hit the ball to left field a lot.
So did Christian hit the ball in the air more this season? Is that how he became so much more powerful? Is he another successful launch angle guy?
Well, no he isn't. The big difference in Yelich is that he learned to square up the ball better, increasing his line drives from 19% to 24%. His hard-hit rate soared from 35% to 47%. He pulled the ball a little more, especially when he hit it deep. Hitting the ball hard more often allowed him to turn many of his medium fly balls into deep ones.
So based on what I see, Yelich ISN'T a guy who increased his success by hitting the ball higher. He simply hit it HARDER.
An article was written about him on August 30th. Let's see how it viewed Christian's situation (and remember, Yelich had hit more home runs but hadn't yet gone crazy as he did in September). I haven't read this yet, so the author may come to a conclusion much different from mine. And he likely as a lot more information than I do. So let's see.
The article is entitled "What Christian Yelich has Changed." Here are some excerpts:
"Yelich’s average launch angle hasn’t budged from last season to this one. He remains a ground-ball and line-drive hitter. In part, he’s just benefiting from playing in Milwaukee instead of playing in Miami. And in part, he’s benefiting from another change. It’s not one that has to do with his swing. Rather, it’s one that has to do with his approach."
"The recent Christian Yelich has reached a new height, and you can see how this is a newer development. In the past, Yelich went after the first pitch roughly a fifth of the time. That was more patient than the overall average. Here are his 2018 monthly splits:
April: 20% first-pitch-swing rate May: 22% June: 24% July: 30% August: 41%"
"Yelich has gone from being particularly patient to particularly aggressive. He’s done this essentially on the fly. Through June, Yelich had 10 hits on the first pitch, which tied him for 99th place in the majors. Since the start of July, Yelich has 18 hits on the first pitch, tying him for first place in the majors."
"I mentioned that Yelich’s overall launch angle hasn’t really changed. That much is true. But look at four years of his launch angles on first-pitch batted balls:
2015: +1.7 degrees 2016: +3.2 2017: +4.5 2018: +11.2"
"He’s more ready to punish the first pitch, which then leaves him more ready to punish the second or third. In that way, it’s psychological, but it also might be increasingly wise in this era of putaway pitches. This is the age of strikeouts, where everyone throws 95 with a breaking ball. The Red Sox have worked to be aggressive early in the count. The Braves have worked to be aggressive early in the count. Yelich is there, as well, trying to get to the pitcher before the pitcher can get to him. These things are always cyclical, but this has been driving Yelich’s success."
"As Yelich has been more aggressive, he’s been more able to pull the ball toward right and right-center. And as he’s been more able to pull the ball toward right and right-center, his power numbers have skyrocketed. This version of Christian Yelich still hits plenty of balls on the ground. This version of Christian Yelich might take a hack or two too many out of the zone. But this speaks to how good Yelich really is: A switch flipped for him a couple months ago, and he’s tweaked his approach on the fly. Yelich goes up there ready to swing these days, which means the opponent can’t take a single pitch off."
So Christian Yelich will win the NL MVP (assuming he does so, and he's the favorite) this season because he became more aggressive. Boly has preached to us this season that the Giants' hitters have taken too many pitches down the middle. It certainly sounds as if Yelich's more aggressive approach would help them.
How about it, Boly? Also, do you think seeing concrete evidence such as this article provides would help make a hitter more likely to become more aggressive?
Because we talked about Hunter Pence, I got into some particulars regarding this year's likely MVP. I merely scraped the surface. Chris Sullivan of FanGraphs dug into the details, showing how Christian Yelich changed his approach on the fly and likely lifted himself into an MVP.
Yelich did it in a manner I think Boly would heartily endorse!
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 2, 2018 13:52:41 GMT -5
If Hunter was not motivated enough to improve in his walk year, I have my doubts that he can motivate himself to do so after he makes the league minimum this coming year.
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rog
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Post by rog on Oct 2, 2018 14:12:40 GMT -5
Do you think Hunter will have more time over the winter to make a change than he had this summer, Randy?
Hey, I'm not optimistic about Hunter, but I admire that he is taking a step back and trying to change. I would suggest he try to take Christian Yelich's new figurative stance, but I think Hunter is pretty aggressive as is. Maybe in Hunter's case, it would make sense to try to improve on pitch recognition, which might turn his aggressiveness in a more constructive direction.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Oct 2, 2018 15:01:19 GMT -5
Of course that begs the question...why did he not do this before his walk year? That is when your motivation should be at its peak.
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rog
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Post by rog on Oct 2, 2018 15:09:11 GMT -5
He's trying to do it over the winter, which would still be in time (barely) to affect his next contract a tiny bit. Better late than never.
Hunter is a strange hitter. As I've mentioned, without his infield singles on balls hit quite poorly, Hunter's average would be noticeably lower.
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rog
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Post by rog on Oct 2, 2018 15:11:30 GMT -5
This is overly simplistic, but here is what I sent Mark breaking down the roster.
The Giants seem to have the following problems:
Starting Pitching -- Too injured, too little contract time remaining, just not enough talent.
Bullpen -- Some hope here, but a lot of inconsistency. Way too much invested in Melancon.
Infield -- Too old.
Outfield -- Too little talent.
Catching -- With Bart coming and Posey returning, maybe the team's only strength.
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rog
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Post by rog on Oct 2, 2018 15:46:52 GMT -5
Regarding Yelich, he hit over a third of his fly balls for homers this season. Even with his hitting the ball much harder, I don't see that repeating itself next season unless he increases his launch angle. The thing that did show up though is that his launch angle ON FIRST PITCHES has been increasing the past three seasons and really took a jump this year.
In August and September alone, Yelich hit more home runs (21) than he hit last season (18) and equalled his previous career season high set in 2016. In addition, the 21 exceeded by one his entire home run total in 2013 through 2015. At the All-Star break, Christian was pretty much on track with his two previous seasons, hitting 11 first-half home runs. In the second half, with his changed approach, he slugged 25.
I wonder how much of his change came from Christian himself, and how much came from his hitting coaches. What an amazing change. Yelich increased his OPS by nearly 400 points from what was a good first half to his spectacular second half. His September OPS of over 1.300 was about 550 points higher than his April OPS.
Yelich appears to have grown from All-Star to MVP. In the last six games of the regular season alone he scored 10 runs and drove in 14. Yesterday he went 3 for 4 in the playoff or first place in the NL Central, driving in a run.
Here is another positive factor. By being more aggressive, Yelich struck out only 16 times after striking out 119 times in the previous five months. Because pitchers feared him more, he walked 24 times compared to just 44 times in the previous five months. Yelich's dramatic change in approach benefited him in almost every way possible at the plate.
Think about it. Hitters now strike out nearly once per game on average. For most hitters, once a pitcher gets them to two strikes, he owns them. One of the objects of an at bat should be to avoid reaching two strikes. Will other hitters learn from Yelich's improvement? I don't believe the change came from a concerted effort to increase launch angle. Somehow by being more aggressive, the increase simply evolved.
Isn't Yelich's change fascinating? Will he win the award of Most Valuable Permutation?
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