Is Longoria's Arm Sore at Losing Streak?

[rog]

Evan Longoria finally ended his 39 game errorless streak, and did it come because he has a sore arm?  Evan had two good double play opportunities, and he got only one out between them. 

On the first, he threw the ball easily to Joe Panik on the pivot, and what seemed a nice chance for a double play wound up with only the first out, as Joe simply didn't have quite enough time to make the turn.  A harder throw would likely have started a twin killing.  It didn't appear Evan had to wait for Panik to get to the base.  He simply didn't throw the ball hard enough.

On the second, he threw the ball softly, and he threw it into the dirt, breaking his errorless streak when the throw bounced up high on Panik.

Is Evan's arm sore; did he take his time to ensure a good throw (which certainly work the second time), or did he simply assume he had plenty of time?

AT&T Park doesn't help, and Evan hasn't been the luckiest of hitters, but at .701, he's in danger of posting a sub-.700 OPS, which would put him in backup corner infielder land.  Evan is virtually assured of posting the lowest OPS of his career.

Evan's biggest issue is his career-low 4.4% walk rate, which is half his career 8.9% mark.

This excerpt from Jeff Sullivan's article right after the trade for Longoria is looking horribly prescient


"And in case you haven’t paid close attention to his career, here is a very quick summary.



Evan Longoria’s Career

Years Ages PA BB% K% wRC+ DRS/150 UZR/150 WAR/600

2008 – 2013 22 – 27 3419 11% 21% 135 15 15 6.2

2014 – 2017 28 – 31 2732 7% 19% 108 -1 3 3.2

Younger Longoria was one of the very best players in baseball. More recent Longoria has settled for being above-average. He’s lost some of his skill at third base, and he’s also lost some of his power. By no means am I trying to suggest that Longoria has declined all the way to bad, but he’s also coming off a 96 wRC+. He’s coming off career-low offensive output, in his age-31 season. Longoria’s results got worse, and his expected results also got worse.



Because every article has to mention Statcast, there’s something alarming about Longoria’s average exit velocities. In 2015, he averaged about 90 miles per hour. In 2016, he averaged about 91. In 2017, he averaged about 87. There are 293 players who knocked at least 100 batted balls in each of the past two seasons. Longoria showed the eighth-greatest exit-velocity drop."


That's not a scouting report, but did it show an accurate picture of Evan or not?

By the way, the 2014-2017 Longoria, as the article said, declined to above average.  This season he's been less than average, where his 96 weighted runs created in 2017 he might be headed.  100 is average, and this season Evan stands at only 87, meaning by this measure, he has been 13% below average at the plate.


The article went on to add:


"Something could be awry here, then. Longoria is missing some pop. He is, at least, coming off a career-high contact rate, and there’s value in balls in play, but the Longoria of old might be gone forever. He might now be a contact-hitting adequate defensive third baseman with roughly average power. The fact that he’s been durable is a good thing, and I’m sure the Giants also love that Longoria is a character guy, a proven leader. But, if Longoria were a free agent, I doubt he’d get $86 million guaranteed. That means his contract would be a little underwater.



Our own projections see the Giants around .500. Neither good nor bad. No one disagrees about the state of the farm system. The Giants are pushing to get into wild-card position. I can’t imagine they’ll end up as good as the Dodgers. They’ll be pestered by the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Cardinals, and, perhaps, the Mets and Brewers, too. It’s not that the Giants don’t have hope, and you could still picture big things from a rotation led by Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija. But things pretty much need to work out in 2018. After that, it gets ugly.



In 2019, Cueto, Samardzija, Longoria, Buster Posey, Mark Melancon, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford will combine to make about $124 million. The youngest among them will be 31. The following year, they’ll make the same money, and the youngest among them, of course, will be 32. After that, Melancon and Samardzija come off the books, but you’re still talking about $94 million combined, with the youngest player being 33. Each of these players is talented, but the 30s tend to be unkind. The Giants will have much of their payroll tied up in older players, necessitating an infusion of cheap young talent, and that’s not an infusion the farm is poised to deliver. It could take a small miracle for the Giants to avoid the fate of the Tigers and Phillies.



They might just be embracing that. It’s possible the Giants know the future will be dark, so they’re trying to give it one last go. That still doesn’t mean adding Longoria was the obvious thing to do, given his long-term commitment, but maybe it’s not actually as simple as just signing Todd Frazier instead. Longoria, in isolation, isn’t a terrible investment. He just piles on to the longer-term issue."


I don't know what the Giants' scouts said about Evan, but his analytics shouted "No."  A year later they scream, "Hell no!"

And maybe his arm is sore to boot.

[klaiggeb]

He's not thrown the ball with any authority ALL YEAR LONG, Rog.

I noticed that back in Spring Training.

I don't and haven't ever liked the way he just 'lobs' the ball over to 1B.

[rog]

I don't have a problem with a guy lobbing the ball for more accuracy, but as we well know, there are plays -- such as the two I described -- where release, arm strength and accuracy are paramount. Those factors are often going to be key factors on double plays, where an eyelash can make the difference between one out and two.

By the way, have we EVER seen a guy who makes the swinging bunt play better than Adrian Beltre? He is able to throw from a very low angle that allows him a lightning-quick release, and he has the arm strength to get plenty on it. Obviously he's lost speed along the way, so he isn't as good as he once was, but he still seems to be very close to as good as their is, and I think in his younger days he was easily the best I've seen. The best by more than a foot, and as we know, that's a lot.

[klaiggeb]

I have a HUGE problem with lobbing the ball over, Rog, freaking HUGE!!!!

And my response is based on what I heard Brooks Robinson say years and years ago!

Something like this: Often 3Bmen have a lot of time and because of all that time, think too much, and try to guide it over to first.

I don't do that. I say, catch it, and throw it hard, just like you normally would. Often times, too much thinking is not a good thing.

I played a lot of 3B and I took his advice to heart.

I never made a throwing error because of what Brooks said.

I think he's a pretty qualified guy from whom to base my answer.

[rog]

I probably shouldn't have said "lobbing the ball." I should have said taking one's time and perhaps taking just a little off the throw for more accuracy, rather than "lobbing the ball for more accuracy."

What you say certainly makes sense. And Brooks is certainly a good source. The bottom line for me though is that what works is most important. If given plenty of time a third baseman makes more errors when he throws the ball more softly, I certainly don't espouse the technique. But if he makes the same number or fewer, I see no problem with it.

If a fielder takes his time and doesn't make more errors and doesn't lose out on getting a guy at first base, I'm down with it. But as soon as it goes the other way, I think he needs to change.

Remember, players are different. Brooks very likely was as accurate or even more so when he threw hard than when he didn't put as much on the ball. It's possible other fielders aren't.

All things being equal, I favor the player throwing hard. Not as hard as when he has to get everything possible on his throw, but hard in a natural manner, as you stated. But if the player gets results, I'm not as concerned about HOW he gets them as that he gets them.

[rog]

What did we think of the analysis of Longoria and of the Giants that was made last winter?

[klaiggeb]

According to Brooks, NEVER take anything off of your throw.

[rog]

I understand, and it certainly worked well for Brooks, one of the best fielding third basemen ever. But he didn't throw the ball 100% all the time. Just, as you put it, his natural throw.

I like Brooks' idea too. It would be hard for a player to go wrong that way. But as long as the player is successful with his methods, I won't question them too highly. If he starts to throw the ball away, I would refer him to Brooks.