Bummed Out?

[rog]

Madison Bumgarner fans may be bummed out this winter.  Madison told Giants beat writer Henry Schulman that the Giants have yet to offer him a contract extension.  The Giants' new front office regime will likely want to start off with a bang, and trading Madison and his $12 million contract for 2019 would accomplish that.

With Madison eligible for free agency a year from now, I think he's gone.  Madison should bring a good young bat or two, and the Giants desperately need such a commodity.

[klaiggeb]

The way he's pitched these last two years, moving him might not be a bad thing.

Then again, I would NOT move him.

He's been hurt and the fact is, you DON'T find guys like Madison that often.

He's a bulldog and after 2 down years, I'd BET money on him returning to form next year.

he's only 29, I think.

[rog]

Madison turned 29 on August 1st.

Amazingly, it's been over nine years since he made his major league debut on a September callup. The following year a month before his 21st birthday, he was called up for good. Two months and 10 days after turning 21, he began his tremendous postseason run, beating the Braves 3-2 when he yielded only two runs in six innings.

[rog]

One could blame Madison's two poor seasons on his injuries suffered early each year. But the fact is that he began his decline a year earlier. Some examples:

. His swinging strike rate (how often batters miss) fell from 12% to 11%. The past two seasons the declines have continued, to 10% and to 9%.

. His hard hit rate increased from 28% to 32%. The past two seasons it has risen to 35% and now to 42%! He's being hit hard now.

. His velocity fell from 93.0 mph to 91.7. That has been the single biggest decrease in his career, and the number has contninued to fall to 91.4 and now to 90.8.


With both a career low 2.74 ERA and a career high 251 strikeouts in 2016, it appeared on the surface that Madison was continuing to improve his excellent pitching. But beneath the surface his peripherals showed he had begun to decline. Not precipitously, by any means, but the decline had already begun.

Just think what the Giants could have gotten had they traded Madison after the 2016 season. His trade value then was likely among the 10 highest in baseball. Even now with a 1/$12 million contract left before he is eligible for free agency, he could be extremely attractive to a team hoping to make their big run in 2019.

[klaiggeb]

All of those things "could" be attributable to his injuries.

That's why I want him to have at least one more year with us.

I'd HATE to lose him, only to have him make the adjustment, as Spahn, Marichal, Roberts, Wynn and HUNDREDS of other great pitchers did in their later years.

And he's ONLY 2 FREAKING 9 YEARS OLD, for crying out loud!

It's not like we're talking Warren Spahn, age 42 with the Giants in 1965.

[klaiggeb]

Okay, Rog, so we get a bat, and lose an arm.

That leaves us with NO one to lead the staff.

Kids-Stratton, Rodriguez, Suarez...the later 2 I PREDICT will have a rough time next year, just like Stratton did this year.

Who fills that void?

Not Cueto. He's out until 2020 at the EARLIEST.

In our park you DON'T win by consistently battering the other team.

It's pitching, defense, timely hitting, and what everyone ignores, SPEED!!

[rog]

All of those things "could" be attributable to his injuries.


Rog -- Please more closely read what I wrote. Madison's decline began in 2016. He suffered his injuries in 2017 and 2018. That was the point of what I wrote.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4832/bummed-out#ixzz5SDrQCgFV

[rog]

Okay, Rog, so we get a bat, and lose an arm.

That leaves us with NO one to lead the staff.


Rog -- Good point.

But if the Giants lose a good arm, they can acquire an arm via free agency. It is hitters that they need to develop and/or trade for.

The Giants almost certainly will either lose Madison to free agency, or they will spend a ton to keep him. If they trade him, they might acquire a desperately needed hitter -- and still have available the money he would command in free agency.

The advantage for a buyer in free agency is that he can acquire a player without giving one up. The disadvantage for a "seller" in free agency -- a team that loses a player to free agency -- is that it doesn't receive a player in return.

Let's look at this logically. Would we rather have both the good hitter Madison might command PLUS the money Madison would receive in free agency, or have only Madison? Would we rather have one good player or two?





Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4832/bummed-out?page=1#ixzz5SDruGs9r

[rog]

In our park you DON'T win by consistently battering the other team.

It's pitching, defense, timely hitting, and what everyone ignores, SPEED!!


Rog -- In truth teams win with a good combination of ALL those things. Let's not forget either the half of games that are played in other parks.

We probably knew that the 2017 Giants scored the 2nd-least runs in baseball. But unless we have read it here, we probably don't know which team led the majors in manufactured runs last season. That is the same team that scored the 2nd-least runs. That is the 2017 Giants.

Regarding speed, I know of no good baseball executive, manager, coach or fan who ignores it.

Also regarding speed, there is something I have been thinking about. We speak of its value, yet in at least one instance WE ignore it. In what instance is that?

We knew that Brandon Crawford wasn't fast for a shortstop. What we didn't know is that this season he has been the SLOWEST out of the 51 shortstops. The very slowest.

There are a lot of things that make a great defensive shortstop. Only one of them is speed. But it certainly is a factor. The speediest shortstop isn't necessarily the best. But the slowest almost certainly isn't. A comparison might be Dick Groat toward the end of his career. Slow. And still very good. But not the best.

Is Brandon still one of the best defensive shortstops in the game? As far as I can tell, he is. Is he the best? Probably not.

Will he win the Gold Glove for a fourth straight season? I think he will. Is he more deserving than Addison Russell? Probably not.

One thing Brandon is is that he's a much better PERSON than Russell, which in the overall of life is far more important. But IMO he isn't quite the shortstop he was when he peaked in 2015 and 2016. And Russell may now be better.

The fastest shortstop, Trea Turner, almost certainly isn't. IMO Brandon is still clearly better than Trea. And he's one of the best. I'm just not sure he's still THE best in the National League.






Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4832/bummed-out?page=1#ixzz5SDtlkk3H

[klaiggeb]

What is your issue with Crawford, Roger? Seriously?

You ALWAYS find a way, overt or subtle, to take shots at him, or down play how good he really is.

Sheesh!

[rog]

If you read what I write closely, Boly, I think the guy has great character and is probably the Giant most like myself when I played (although I never played shortstop). I tremendously admire his reaction when he was left off the 2016 All-Star team. The guy seems like about a fine a human being as one could find.

I also had him as my personal choice as the best overall shortstop of the 2015 season. It's not as if I hate the guy. In reality, I LOVE him.

But, as was the case with Tim Lincecum, I try to be objective about him. I was probably more criticial of Tim's play than anyone here. Not of his mechanics. You are our resident expert, and you are the best one to comment there. As I have posted, there is nothing that says your comments on his mechanics weren't right all along.

As for Brandon, Boagie thinks I criticize him because Brandon has become a better hitter than I projected. And indeed in 2016 and 2016 Brandon has become a better than I believed he would. His career numbers were about as I expected, although I underestimated his power a bit.

What I believe though is that we overrated Brandon's shortstop play here on the board. Not that he hasn't been fabulous defensively. He has. (I even noted that the Wilson Defensive Player of the Year Award, which I value more highly than the Gold Glove, was awarded to Brandon as far back as 2012. Because many are convinced I have a vendetta against Brandon, they tend to forget the good things I post about him. No one else here even knew he had won the award in 2012. I myself didn't know it until I stumbled across as I continue to study defensive shortstops, Brandon and Andrelton Simmons in particular.)

But with both the eye test and the metrics, I have felt that Brandon has declined the past two seasons. Is he still a really good defensive shortstop? I believe he is. And I've probably studied his fielding as closely as anyone here.

But I don't think he has ever truly been quite as good as Andrelton Simmons (over whom he won the 2015 Gold Glove Award), and while I don't know as much about Addison Russell, I have a feeling Addison too is now better than Brandon. The metrics say he is (and has been this year and last), but I haven't seen nearly enough of Russell to judge.

What I'm convinced of is that as good as Brandon has been, Andrelton Simmons has been better. Ten years from now when both have finished playing (or Simmons nearly so), I think the consensus will be that Simmons is in the top five defensive shortstops to play the game, while Crawford will be rememembers as one of the smoothest and a great one in his own right. But not at the same level as Simmons.

Why do I feel this way? Well, let's start with the metrics, which contradict your claim that Brandon is better on routine plays. Inside Fielding, which has viewed every play made by each of them and is about as objective as it gets, says Brandon has muffed only 2.2% of routine plays, which is really good. But Simmons has blown only 1.3% routine plays, which is fabulous.

OK, so Inside Fielding is more objective than we, and they've seen probably 25 times as many of Simmons' plays as we have. Sounds pretty convincing, doesn't it?

So let's check it out another way. When a player blows a routine play, he is almost always charged with an error. Some plays could be called a hit or an error and not be too far off either way. But a routine play is a routine play.

Crawford has been charged with an error on only 2.4% of his plays. That's tied for 42nd best among all-time shortstops. Simmons has been charged with an error on only 1.8% of his, which ranks #7 all-time.

OK, we say, but some of those errors no doubt came on throwing errors on plays others wouldn't even have attempted, right? Well, certainly a fielding error is more clear, but on fielding plays (as opposed to throwing), Crawford has erred 4.0% of the time, which is nearly twice as often as Simmons' 2.1%.

When we check throwing, Brandon has erred on 1.66% of his throws. Simmons has failed 1.60% of the time. For all practical purposes, the two are equal on throws (although some would claim that Simmons makes the more difficult throws of the two, and that Crawford has had better support from his first baseman). Let's just call them equal with regard to throwing, although Simmons does throw even harder than Brandon -- which is pretty darn hard to begin with.

On fielding routine balls that Crawford is the clear winner.

We've "seen" Simmons blow routine plays more frequently than Brandon, but we've seen only a very small percentage of Andrelton's plays, so any error he makes would stand out more. If Andrelton boots more routine plays than Brandon, there is no evidence of it that I can find -- anywhere.

So how about the eye test? I've watched as many of the numerous defensive highlight reels of Simmons as I can find. I've seen Simmons make quite a few plays I've never seen Brandon make. I've seen him make plays I don't think Brandon CAN make. I've offered to go over the plays that I don't think Brandon would have made, but no one seems to care enough to do so.

I've also read a LOT about the fielding of each. I saw one article that said Brandon was the best at that particular time, a time when Simmons had missed much of the half season so far to injury. Here are some of the things I've read about Simmons' fielding:

. "one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball history"

. "There isn't a more deserving player than Andrelton Simmons to be the first to win five Fielding Bible Awards in a row."

. "Simmons is like if you put Ozzie Smith in Cal Ripken’s body, then put Simone Biles at the controls. He might have the best throwing arm ever on a major league shortstop."

. "Simmons, widely regarded as the best defensive shortstop since Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel"

. "Five acts of baseball that I believe Simmons, and only Simmons, is capable of."

abc7.com/sports/stop-everything-youre-doing-and-watch-andrelton-simmons/2337186/


. "Fielding Bible Honors Atlanta Braves' Andrelton Simmons of defensive shortstop of the year in a unanimous vote." -- This came the year Brandon Crawford shockingly beat out Simmons for the Gold Glove.

. "Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons makes case for best fielding season ever."

. "The Andrelton Simmons highlight page is baseball pornography."

. "a guy who one time fielded a ball and flipped it behind his back – to himself."

www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWb_5a41qhE


I could go on for a long time with similar things I have read and seen, but you get the idea. Simmons is the consensus best defensive shortstop in the game.

In summary, Simmons passes the eye test; he has by far the better metrics; and he is seen almost universally as the best. I love Brandon, but I would be lying if I said he is as good as Simmons.

And to top it off, although I certainly don't think in this day of tremendous young shortstops that Simmons is the best all-around at the position -- as I did just three years ago with Brandon -- Simmons' greatly improved hitting the past two seasons has made him not only a better defensive shortstop than Brandon, but a better overall shortstop as well. I believe Brandon is still a top 10 shortstop -- but barely. IMO he's closer to not being in the top 10 to being in the top five. Which Simmons quite possibly is (possibly behind only Lindor, Seager, Turner and Story).

When we consider the field only, Simmons is a generational talent. Crawford is one of the best of his generation. Probably the second best.

[rog]

I forgot Carlos Correa. Although Carlos has had a very down season, it's tough to argue he's not in the top five shortstops. And the top shortstops are YOUNG. Correa, Lindor and Seager are 24; Turner and Story are 25. Xander Bogaerts is 25. Alex Bregman, a shortstop playing third base, is 24. Manny Machado, a third baseman playing shortstop, is 26.

Has there ever been a group of shortstops this good? I don't think it's ever been close. The closest thing I can think of is Rodriguez, Jeter and Garciaparra -- and that's only a trio. (By the way, those guys were really, really good at one time, weren't they?)

If we want an all-around shortstop today, look at Lindor. Considered one of the best fielders at the position (almost certainly in the top five), Lindor has 37 homers and 23 steals this season. Story has 34 homers and 26 steals. Turner has 18 homers and 43 steals.

That's a combined total of at least 60 for each of these players. I'll bet there aren't half a dozen shortstops who have accomplished that in one season. In fact, are there any others who have accomplished the feat aside from Alex Rodriguez, who reached 60 or more five times -- including a combined total of 88 in 1998.

The shortstop position has really changed since the days of Dick Groat. Groat was a five-time All-Star at shortstop and won one MVP Award. Yet he couldn't play shortstop with these guys and had a CAREER total of a combined 53 home runs and stolen bases.

If we want a physical comparison, Groat was 5-foot-11, 180 pounds and didn't run particularly well (although he was a great multi-sport athlete). Rodriguez played at 6-foot-3, 230 pounds and stole 329 bases.

Think the game has changed at all?

[klaiggeb]

I read it carefully, Rog, and what you meant is not what comes out.

Every time I read a post from you about Crawford, yes, you say some nice things, but the brunt of every post is that he's not all he's cracked up to be, he's slipping, and that others are better.


All I know is this:

1-He has tremendous range.

2-He makes the super star play look routine

3-He makes the routine play so often it's moot to even discuss it.

4-He has an accurate, cannon for an arm. Not a Dunston arm, but who cares? he's got a strong arm.

5-He can be MY SS on any team any time.

[rog]

When one remembers EVERYTHING I've written about Crawford over the years -- beginning with 2009 when I wrote when he had an OPS over 1.000 at San Jose that he wasn't nearly that good a hitter (which is where Boagie seemingly got the idea that I hate a player I actually have great respect for, as both a player and as a man) -- I think one can see that I have a tremendous appreciation for him.

What I don't like though is what I consider to be a blind opinion that he is the best defensive shortstop in the game. I believe that in 2015 and 2016 he was pretty close, but despite winning the 2015 Gold Glove over Andrelton Simmons, he never passed Simmons as the best-fielding shortstop of this era.

We have posted that Brandon is better on the routine play, but those who have evaluated every play made and not made by each player say that isn't the case. They say that while Brandon is excellent on the routine play, Simmons is clearly better.

Again, Brandon is great. Pure fundamentals, outstanding instincts, strong arm and likely plays the smoothest shortstop since Omar Vizquel. But he's never been mentioned alongside Omar and Ozzie. Simmons has.

More importantly, while he doesn't look as graceful doing it, Simmons makes plays Brandon can't make. Let me choose a Simmons highlight film -- they're all over the internet -- and I'll idenfity the plays I've never seen Brandon make and don't believe he can make. Clearly you know much more than enough about baseball to see what I mean.

If we were judging grace and fundamentals, we might very well score Brandon higher. Plus, he's the proverbial "makes all the plays" guy. As closely as I can tell, he has no clear weakness.

But he doesn't have the athleticism of Simmons. He doesn't have the length, which means he just misses balls Simmons gets to. He has a plus or even a plus plus arm, but Simmons' is stronger. Simmons' arm IS Shawon Dunston strong. When extended, Simmons often gets his throw off a step sooner than Brandon. Amazingly, his instincts are even more finely honed than Brandon's, which frequently shows itself in strong and clever throws behind adventurous runners.

He makes tags that Crawford can only dream of making. There are two plays I hadn't seen before this round of viewing.

The play where Simmons fully extends to field a ball to his left and than as his body catches up to his glove, flips it behind his body to his bare hand to make the throw. Now THAT'S a quick exchange. The play where the relay throw is behind him, so he bare hands it to continue make his quick turn to throw behind the runner if he has wandered astray.

Brandon Crawford doesn't make a lot of these plays, and if anyone wants to go through a Simmons highlight tape with me, I'll point out the plays I don't think Crawford can make.

Crawford makes more plays look effortless. Simmons makes more plays.

[klaiggeb]

We'll have to agree to disagree, because I don't agree with you.

I'll take Crawford

[rog]

If you look at the clips and we can discuss them with Boagie and others, I'd be happy to accept your opinion, regardless of what it is. Different people see things differently, but I do think if you see some of the plays Simmons has made you will see him differently.

Brandon has the fundamentals, which you like. Brandon has the smoothness, which you like. There are times we watch him and wonder how ANYONE could do better. All Simmons does is make plays. Sometimes he makes plays Brandon hasn't made, and plays I don't think Brandon is capable of making. That's not a knock on Brandon, who is a fabulous defender in his own right (although I think he is beginning to decline as is the case with virtually all fielders as they age and lose athleticism.

As for the routine play, Brandon is excellent there as well. But as his much lower error rate on balls fielded shows, Simmons is simply fabulous. Inside Edge shows Simmons boots fewer routine plays than even Brandon, and the error rate on batted balls (excluding throws) confirms it.

If a guy boots fewer routine plays, he's better on routine plays, right? How can it be otherwise?

That's the routine side of their shortstop defense, and I think the many Simmons fielding highlight films show that at the other end of difficulty, Andrelton makes more plays as well.

Are Simmons' fundamentals as good as Brandon's? Probably not. But he fields more balls successfully, and isn't that the most important thing?

You, Boagie and others look at those highlight films with me, and let's see if you don't agree there are several plays Simmons makes that Brandon hasn't made.

If Simmons weren't an even better fielder than Brandon (who is special in his own right), would there be so many Simmons highlights tapes? He's the consensus pick, and both the eye test and the analytics seem to confirm it.

But let's compare our impressions of the film. If you guys see it differently than I, then we simply disagree. But right now I feel as if I've examined far more evidence than you guys have seen. And seen Simmons make plays that will surprise you, even though we're used to excellence with Brandon.

[rog]

I'm looking at Simmons' tapes for the umpteenth time, and I remembered one of the things that stands out -- he makes spectacular plays, then throws guys out by multiple steps. If you get the guy, it certainly doesn't matter by how much. But getting guys by such a large amount after difficult charging, diving or hole plays shows how quick he recovers and the strength of his arm.

After some of his excellent plays, the first baseman often catches the throw as if the play were routine, yawn, yawn. On other plays though, I marvel at the stretching ability of Freddie Freeman, who was Simmons' primary first baseman through 2015.