Can the Giants Get Better and Still Build for the Future?

[rog]

Is it possible for the Giants to get better now and build for the future at the same time?  Last winter the problem was not enough money to spend. This year it's not enough players to trade.  But there is a way to get better now and still have a future.  Now is the time to take the fork in the road and go that way.


.  Don't be too quick to trade the guys who look obvious.  Brandon Belt and Joe Panik don't look like nearly as good a right side of the infield as they did a year or two ago.  With guys like Chris Shaw, Austin Slater and Alen Hanson building steam, now seems like the perfect time to deal the vets.  Except that it probably isn't.

Bill Walsh said it's better to trade a player two years too early than a year too late.  That might have been a nice thought for the Giants a year or two ago.  Now it's that proverbial year too late -- or if the players can bounce back, a year too early.  Especially in the case of Panik, it's better not to.  Pray these guys have a nice 2019 and rebuild their value.  If even one of the two does, it will likely be worth the wait.  Meanwhile, aren't these guys are too young to be washed up yet?

.  Instead, trade Hanson.  Alen has been one of the Giants' best stories this season.  He is a former top prospect, he can play multiple positions, he runs like the wind, and he has a little pop.  He's only 25, and he won't be eligibie for arbitration for a year, nor eligible for free agency for four.  Meanwhile he can be paid little more than the minimum.  Sounds like the kind of guy you'd like to HAVE, not trade, right?

But 2018 could easily turn out to be one of the best years -- if not THE best -- of his career.  Trade him two years too early rather than a year too late.  Teams looking to save money for this winter's free agency will want him.  Even teams in a rebuilding mode might.  If they're willing to pay, let Alen play -- elsewhere.  The Giants already picked up his replacement at the trade deadline -- Abiatal Avelino.

.  Based on the Walsh theory, trade Madison Bumgarner if there's a good deal to be had.  A year from now will be too late.  Either he'll already have an expensive no-trade contract with the Giants, or he'll be lost to free agency for scant compensation.  Meanwhile, there are many contenders who would love to have Madison for a year and hope they can re-sign him if he regains some of the magic.

.  The Giants have money to spend.  Be willing to trade for a veteran who costs a little but who may be able to help bridge the gap to the future.  Maybe a team hoping to win the Bryce Harper chase will want to free up more money by trading the outfielder Harper would replace in exchange for someone like Hansen who might improve their infield or depth.

.  Be willing to eat some contract if a team doesn't want to overspend during such a fine free agent winter.  For the right guy, the Giants can afford to have him now and eat some contract too.

.  Get younger with some of the trades. 

.  Pick up some international pool money in exchange for eating contract or simply instead of the proverbial player to be named.

.  Follow Mark's advice and sign Andrew McCutchen or someone like him.  Andrew is coming off a down year and shouldn't be too expensive in terms of either salary or years.  Maybe he even wants to sign a one-year contract, have a strong season, and hit the free agent market a year from now when he won't have to compete with guys like Harper and Machado and should still be young enough to command more years if he bounces back.

.  Don't totally abandon the idea of signing a big free agent, as unlikely as it seems.  Bid up the Dodgers!

.  Let Bruce Bochy ride off into the sunset with some dignity.  Let him retire to save his health (which is probably more important than is generally perceived).  If Sir Hensley Meulens is the guy to provide new energy, let the Knighthood Era begin.


In short, go against the grain.  Rely on your scouts and analytics staff.  Get better, but get younger too.  It's broke, so go fix it -- for now and for the future.

[sfgdood]

To answer your question, it is possible to try to walk that tightrope but it will only prolong the rebuild. It would be nearly impossible to win a title with this kind of split priority strategy...and very difficult to make a serious playoff run

[rog]

I agree with you that a split strategy isn't the best strategy, Randy. Neither you nor I would use it, and neither you nor I would have used it last year.

My point though is that the Giants have already stated they're going to try to use a split strategy, and the best we can hope for is that they emphasize the future at least as much as the present. I don't think traditional methods will cut it.

But if they're going to go down the split path, I posted the strategies I would use to come as close to making acceptable accomplishments in each direction. As you point out, it's darn near impossible.

But since the Giants say they're headed that way, our challenge isn't to simply say they should rebuild -- I think we all pretty much agree that they should -- but to identify some strategies that will give the Giants at least a puncher's chance, knowing full well that neither Brian Sabean nor Bobby Evans is Joe Louis or Rocky Marciano.

The Giants have indicated they're taking both forks of Yogi's fork in the road. Let's hope their bifurcation of effort somehow brings the goals of now and then together in some kind of blended success. Having a plan makes the effort highly difficult instead of impossible. Better to have some kind of strategy than no strategy at all.

[sfgdood]

Trading the more consistent, faster, more reliable (health wise), cheaper Hansen and keeping Panik not only is a foolish move, it will bring very little back in trade...and then you need to acquire someone good to fill in for Panik when he inevitably goes back on the DL, since you traded away the backup.

[rog]

Trading the more consistent, faster, more reliable (health wise), cheaper Hansen and keeping Panik not only is a foolish move, it will bring very little back in trade...and then you need to acquire someone good to fill in for Panik when he inevitably goes back on the DL, since you traded away the backup.


Rog -- Part of the Panik situation depends on whether his back is permanently damaged. If so, that changes the equation.


Otherwise, I would keep Joe and hope that he had a good season, in which case I might THEN trade him. As for Hanson, not only is it hard to know whether to use one "l" or two in his first name and whether to use an "o" or an "e" in his second, I think we've seen the best of him and thus would trade him if value can be had now.

I believe that at some time before the end of the 2019 season, Albiatar Avelino will beat out Alen. Perhaps only though if we can buy a vowel. The guy's name is harder to spell than Alen Hanson.

You and I disagree here because I think Joe is low and Alen is high. You believe Joe will stay low, and Alen will remain high. Let's see how that turns out.

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