Pull the Trigger and Pull it Now

[klaiggeb]

The day of Duggar's injury for no reason at all I'm watching TV and suddenly it hits me; Duggar is the next one to go down...

And that night, it happened on an absolutely freak manner.

I hate it when I see that happening before they happen.

And as I posted in another thread, Stupid me once again got sucked in by the two wins, and seemingly new energy with the 2 wins of Arizona, thinking they actually had a chance.


I joked in my Geisenheist 4000XR post about Sabean's thought process if the giants won games 1 and 2; how he'd hold off making a deal because he would actually think we'd win.

But now my light-hearted romp with words has sort of come to pass; Sabean has to S _ _ t or get off the pot.

We aren't going to win this year.

We've lost still ANOTHER piece!


Sabean, get SOMETHING for McCutchen!

Anything!

He's not going to resign here next year, and besides that, he hasn't done ANYTHING to warrant the team wanting him back!

Sheesh!

It's Thursday, putz!

Don't let us get stuck holding the proverbial bag and get zilch for Andrew when he walks at the end of the year.

Get something!


But with the passing of each day, I'm more and more certain you'll stand foolishly pat.


You're as bad a Bochy who simply will NOT bunt or Hit and Run in your stubbornness.

You're wrong!

And it ain't the first time!

[rog]

The results of Steven's season have been quite successful. For a guy who strikes out so much, his averages are pretty good. And his defense and base running have been excellent. He's put up even BETTER numbers against southpaws, which could bode well for his not having to be platooned in the future.

The only caveat I would give is that Steven may have been quite lucky at the plate. His line drive rate of 23% was above-average, but he hit the ball hard only 30% of the time, which is below average and not often enough for a guy who strikes out a lot.

Steven hit for a .255 average and a .390 slugging percentage. Not bad. Statcast says he should have hit only .203/.318, which would have been very bad -- and given us a much different opinion of him. The truth probably lies somewhere in between, but unless he cuts down on his strikeouts, I don't expect Steven to duplicate his numbers.

And the one area he MUST improve is his .303 on base percentage. That makes him a perennial #8 hitter, and the Giants need him to lead off to take advantage of his fine base running.

I wish I were more optimistic about Steven. He might be the most exciting Giant to watch.

[rog]

He's not going to resign here next year


Rog -- I agree it seems more likely that he won't re-sign than that he will, but we certainly don't know that he's not going to re-sign.

By the way, I use the hypen, which isn't technically correct, since by the quirks of the English language, ree-SIE-ning here would be the opposite of ree-ZIE-ning here.

It depends on the price, of course, but if the Giants were going to rebuild, re-ZIE-ning would seem better, while if they are going to continue retooling, one could make an argument -- as Mark has -- to re-SIEN him.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4793/pull-trigger?page=1#ixzz5PgS2rDUW

[klaiggeb]

The 'smart' money is to assume, as Brian Sabean said, that NO POWER HITTER WANTS TO PLAY HERE.

Thus, he should be moved either today or tomorrow.

But my opinion of our leadership, and that includes Bochy, has sunk to new lows.

Bochy is stubborn beyond reasonable logic.

We DON'T score runs.

We DON'T hit home runs.

We NEED to generate offense.

But he won't hit and run, or bunt to do so.

That, to me, borders on the insane.

What you're doing isn't working...so obviously, we should keep on doing it?

Sheesh!

[rog]

But he won't hit and run, or bunt to do so.

That, to me, borders on the insane.

What you're doing isn't working...so obviously, we should keep on doing it?


Rog -- I think Bruce became disenamored a little with small ball when the Giants led the majors in manufactured runs last season, yet finished next-to-last in total scoring.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4793/pull-trigger#ixzz5PgsSIhHo

[rog]

I don't know the figures for this season, but last year Bruce was in the middle of NL managers on steal attempts, on the low side of sacrifices attempted, and on the high side of runners moving on batted balls.

So in 2017, Bruce didn't bunt much, but he hit and ran quite a bit.

[klaiggeb]

Not enough for me, Roger, and certainly NOT enough based upon our personnel.

Panik and Posey in particular SHOULD be playing H/R a lot, LOT more.

Same with Hundely.

[rog]

Joe in particular would seem a good candidate, but as I have mentioned, I believe running-and-hitting would detract from Buster's approach. It would make Buster more aggressive though, and help stay out of the double play.

I just have a hard time though forcing a guy whose best strength might be waiting for his pitch to hit to then swing at a pitch that might not be to his liking.

One thing that makes the hit-and-run more attractive than it once was is that teams almost never pitch out anymore. One thing that makes it less attractive is that pitchers induce many more swings-and-misses.

If I were going to hit and run, I would do so on the first pitch. More chance of a pitch in the strike zone and a greater likelihood of a fastball. If the pitch is fouled back, the batter won't have two strikes.

[rog]

It would be intriguing to have the results for each of these guys when they have in fact hit-and-run. The Giants have them, and that might influence them to use the play less often.

Another factor of course in using the play is that it be against a pitcher who is right around the plate who pitches to contact or at least doesn't have swing-and-miss stuff.

[klaiggeb]

We disagree about Buster, then, Rog.

Buster has many strengths as a hitter, one of which is consistent contact.

But that contact, often resulting in ground balls, coupled with his slow foot speed, is what caused me to start calling him"6-4-3 Buster Poh-Zee," a couple of seasons back.

He hits the ball on the ground A LOT, especially with runners on.

Why not make that a strength rather than a weakness? Which is what Bochy does.

Posey is not a power hitter; he's a line drive, gap hitter.

We need to take advantage of that.

But no, Bochy is stubborn.

He's still playing Earl Weaver baseball with a team that isn't like an Earl Weaver team.

[rog]

I looked this and realized a couple of things:

First, we see pretty much the same things here; we just value them differently.

Second, there are SO many variables that go into whether to hit and run that's it's hard enough to think of them, let alone assess them. What are some of these factors?

. How are his contact skills? Very good.

. How will his power be affected by hitting-and-running? Probably not as much as when he had more power. Maybe more so if he gets it back after the surgery.

. How likely is he to get a pitch to hit that is over the plate? Depends on the pitcher, the count, the game situation and whether he's hot compared to the batters behind him.

. The best place to hit the ball on the hit-and-run is to right field. Buster doesn't hit the ball nearly as well to right as when he pulls it or hits it to center.

. What is the count?

. How many outs?

. How often does he hit into a double play? With a runner on first base and fewer than two outs, he hits into a double play once out of every seven times. That's bad.

. How much less will he walk by hitting-and-running? Probably a fair amount less.

. How much lower will his average be?

. How has he fared against the pitcher in the past?

. Is the pitcher a righty or southpaw? Buster hits lefties much better, but he also hits into more double plays against them.

. In case he misses the pitch, how well can the runner steal when forced to run? Usually not too well, even among otherwise good base stealers.

. How well will Buster hit when forced to swing compared to when he can pick his pitch?

. Is the pitcher a pitcher who induces a lot of swing-throughs?


These are just some of the variables that should be considered. I don't think there is a right or wrong answer as to whether Buster should hit and run. I think it depends on the situation and how well that situation can be evaluated.

[klaiggeb]

Roger, so many of what you listed I took into account.

Of course the outs and the pitcher and all that comes into consideration.

I was talking in general, and once again, you went over board.

Fact; Bochy doesn't hit and run enough for ME, nor for the team he's got.

[rog]

I know you considered most if not all those things, Boly -- and likely many more. I would like to have all the information the Giants have so that I could feel more strongly about which ever direction I favored. As for with what we do know, I think it depends heavily on the situation.

In about two and a half months we should be able to find out how Bruce compared with the other National League managers in using the hit and run play. Last season he was on the high side. I have no idea where to find the information solely with Buster at the plate.

Generally speaking I would be looking for an opportunity with things like a runner on first base who can get a jump on most any pitch, a non over-shifted infield where it would be easier to turn the double play, a ground ball pitcher who was more likely to induce a double play, a strike thrower who was likely to get the pitch over the plate, Buster in a slump or against a pitcher he didn't hit well, a count where the pitcher is likely to throw a strike but also one from which Buster could easily recover from if he swung and missed or fouled the pitch off, and a situation in which the Giants would benefit from Buster's being more aggressive.

[klaiggeb]

Roger, you're still missing my entire point.

We have players with whom we can and should H/R... but don't.

Situation dictates everything. We both know that.

So why you brought it up in the first place confounds me.

You keep bringing up a bunch of other nonsense, that doesn't even address what I was and am talking about.

For instance. "I would be looking for an opportunity with things like a runner on first base who can get a jump on most any pitch, a non over-shifted infield where it would be easier to turn the double play, a ground ball pitcher who was more likely to induce a double play, a strike thrower who was likely to get the pitch over the plate, Buster in a slump or against a pitcher he didn't hit well, a count where the pitcher is likely to throw a strike but also one from which Buster could easily recover from if he swung and missed or fouled the pitch off, and a situation in which the Giants would benefit from Buster's being more aggressive."

You say you know I likely took all of that into consideration, and then you bring up more of the same.

You make it frustrating to talk to and deal with because it's like you're always looking for a point to which you can disagree.

[rog]

I think we pretty much agree here, although I think I believe the decision is more situation-related than you. IMO the primary reason to hit-and-run with Buster is exactly what you mentioned -- to avoid the many double plays he hits into. The primary reason not to would be that it might take away from some of his strengths. That he isn't hitting with as much power also speaks to doing it.

I think there are many factors that go into the decision, whereas I feel you believe it is more clear-cut. I don't know that you would hit-and-run more than I or not. It would likely depend on the circumstances involved.

I think we both like the idea. Buster is something of a hitting machine, but he's also a double play machine.

[klaiggeb]

No, Roger, we don't agree.

I'm talking 'in general.' I'm not interested in pursing a discussion of the nitty-gritty details.

You're trying to break things further down then is reasonable in a posted conversation.

Those discussions might be interesting for you; fun for you.

ON the board, they are not fun for me.

Those are conversations to have in person.

[rog]

I simply think we agree on more than we disagree.

[klaiggeb]

In general, yes, we agree a lot

But you always want to pick apart every post I make.

And by pick apart, I mean you almost always want to start some in depth conversation which doesn't work on a board like this.

That's what you did when I said we should hit and run more.

Why?

It's either an agree, or disagree post that I made, not one that needed to be broken down into component parts of when, where and how.

I always assume that Bochy or any big league manager KNOWS the when, where and how... they either do it, or they don't.

Bochy doesn't, and he enrages me that he won't.

He's more stubborn than Brandon Belt