rog
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Post by rog on Aug 18, 2018 6:55:52 GMT -5
Statcasts calculates that in terms of batting average Joe Panik is the sixth-most unlucky player in baseball. if that is true, his bad season has been more bad luck than bad hitting. Joe is also ranked at the 41st-most unlucky player in terms of slugging percentage.
Joe's hard hit rate remains higher than ever before. His line drive percentage is above his career average. He has struck out less, whiffed less and swung at fewer bad balls than in any season of his career.
Maybe Joe really HAS been unlucky.
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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 18, 2018 10:03:31 GMT -5
Maybe?
I'm going out on a limb here to say that it's one heck of a lot more than "maybe."
And I'll go further out on that limb; this entire team, IN ADDITION TO MASSIVELY UNDER PERFORMING, has been unlucky.
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 18, 2018 20:41:35 GMT -5
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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 18, 2018 21:08:57 GMT -5
That may be, but the biggest problem is UNDER performing.
Panik, McCutchin, Longo, Posey, Belt, Bum
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 19, 2018 21:50:33 GMT -5
Joe has been really unlucky.
Andrew has been unlucky too.
Evan hasn't been as unlucky as the other two, but he hasn't had the best of luck, and he isn't really all that good anymore. This will make his fourth mediocre season among the past five, after half a dozen excellent ones to start his career.
Buster hasn't been lucky either, but his power has been in an outage.
Brandon is having something of a typical season after getting off to a great after-start after a lousy start.
I don't believe Madison is as good as he was prior to 2016. He's gone from dominant to decent (well, a bit above that, but I liked the alliteration).
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Post by Islandboagie on Aug 20, 2018 20:15:21 GMT -5
It's not being unlucky, it's being lousy. You can use that unlucky excuse for a few weeks, maybe a month, but not the entire season. The only unlucky ones are us the fans that have had to endure the
lackluster performances we've seen day in and day out.
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 21, 2018 0:50:16 GMT -5
Let's look at Andrew McCutchen, Boagie. He's hit the ball hard more often than in any previous season (although I believe the manner in which hard hit is measured may have change with a slight positive bias this season), and his line drive rate is just one tick below his career high. With normal luck, that should lead to a very good season, shouldn't it?
The only negative I can see in what Andrew can control is that he has struck out 3% more than his career average. Joe Panik's situation is similar, and in his case, he's struck out less than in any previous season.
Now, I'm not going to tell you that Madison Bumgarner has been unlucky, because I don't believe he has been. I'm not going to tell you that Austin Slater, Andrew Duggar and Alen Hanson have been unlucky, because I believe they have been lucky, not unlucky.
Regarding Madison, here is how Statcast believes his weighted on base average should have been the past three seasons compared to his actual WOBA.
2015 -- Actual: .266 Expected: .272 Difference: -.006
2016 -- Actual: .269 Expected: .281 Difference: -.012
2017 -- Actual: .296 Expected: .307 Difference: -.011
2018 -- Actual: .303 Expected .320 Difference: -.017
This and several other metrics indicate Madison has been declining since his peak in 2015.
This article might prove helpful:
tps://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/madison-bumgarners-fastball-is-still-broken/
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