Last night's pregame show

[klaiggeb]

If you watched the pre game show yesterday, you heard Alex Pavlovic state that the Giants one big trading chip was Brandon Belt.

He believes the Giants will move Belt when Bart is ready, and move Posey to 1B.

And I can't help but be totally confused by that logic.

Posey is close to a .300 singles hitter.

He's a SLOW Tony Gwynn-type player without the foot speed to hit for a higher average.

He no longer hits for power, so why in the world would you move him to 1B?

That makes ZERO sense.

ZERO.

consider his continually declining HR numbers.

24
15
22
19
14
12
5...which I will project out to 8.

THAT, those numbers, THAT decline is alarming!

And any Giant fan who ignores that is just fooling themselves.

So why give up Belt's 20+ HR potential for...what? 10?

No thanks.

I'll keep Brandon, unless we're going to do a complete rebuild.

[Islandboagie]

Boly- So why give up Belt's 20+ HR potential for...what? 10?

Boagie- Belt is too old to have "potential." If he had that potential he would have reached it by now. That said, I don't necessarily disagree that Posey shouldn't be the first baseman. Maybe third base? Or just the backup catcher.

[klaiggeb]

These last 2 seasons, just as Brandon is about to explode...he gets hurt.

Freak things, too, not normal muscle pulls or oblique injuries.

Weird stuff.



I'd like Posey to be the back up catcher when Joey gets here.


Again, NO power limits where he can play.

But defensively, at 1B or 3rd...he could do the job.

He's got soft, hands and great instincts.


IF he gets past this hip injury thing, all that could change.

But the fact that his power numbers continue to decline tells me this hip injury has been around for quite a while, and it's not something he seems to be able to shake.

[rog]

Buster Posey isn't going to be just the backup catcher. I would have him see how he could play third base. He's got the arm and the hands. I'm not sure I've seen him dive for a ball, and he'd have to do a lot of that at the hot corner.

[rog]

Brandon Belt is too old to have potential -- except that he hasn't stayed healthy enough to show us what he might do if he could. In his past 345 games (just over two full seasons worth), he has hit 49 homers. So, yeah, he must have 20+ home run potential.

[sfgdood]

As I have been pushing for this scenario for years, it is my belief that the Giants finally have adopted my thinking that as a 1st baseman, Posey will hit better and for greater power

[klaiggeb]

I've heard that for years, Randy, Don being its biggest proponent.

I say it's horse crap.

[sfgdood]

you can say it if you want but it seems to me having your most important player taking foul tips all over his body, getting hit with back swings, getting crushed on plays at the plate, isn't the way to get the most of his bat.

[Islandboagie]

Boly- These last 2 seasons, just as Brandon is about to explode...he gets hurt.

Boagie- Actually, if my memory is correct, he was red hot, then slumped, then got hurt.

[klaiggeb]

Doesn't matter, boagie.

It really doesn't.

This is the first year he's put it together for a long time...then got hurt, came back, got hurt again.


I am now officially a RANDY Fan...Blow it up, and start all over again.

[rog]

Personally I'm open to trading ANYONE -- as I believe someone else stated at the beginning of this thread. So why does it make sense to trade Brandon Belt and move Buster to first base?

First of all, Buster has a no-trade contract, so there is no guarantee you can trade him. Secondly, he's the face of the franchise, which usually isn't the type of player you look to trade. Maybe Buster would like to go "home" to Atlanta. Maybe he'd like to win another championship in the next two or three years when he's in his prime. But there is no guarantee the Giants may trade him.

I wouldn't at ALL be against trading Buster if he agreed and the Giants could get value in return.

As for his playing first base, that seems the most likely spot. He might have played there his entire career except that the Giants felt he could best exert his leadership from behing the plate.

Now, the Giants do have other options. They could move Brandon to left field instead of trading him. He's not a total loss out there, and he certainly has the arm for the outfield.

Or they could play Buster at third base. I've liked that idea for a long time. Early in Buster's career I recommended the Giants play Pablo at third base and have him back up Buster behind the plate. I recommended Buster back up Pablo at third base. But Pablo's weight and Buster's broken ankle precluded any vestige of such an idea.

I don't think it would be at all unexpected if the Giants had back-to-back Hall of Fame catchers.

[Islandboagie]

Boly- Doesn't matter, boagie.

It really doesn't.

This is the first year he's put it together for a long time...then got hurt, came back, got hurt again.

Boagie- Actually it does matter, because you said he was "about to explode" which you have no way of knowing even if he was about to. Brandon was cold when he got hurt, that shows no evidence that he's about to explode. Perhaps implode, like he does just about every year. I don't mean to be harsh towards Belt, I like the guy, but he's never "put it together." He's streaky. He gets red hot (usually toward the beginning of the season) then he gets cold, and slightly rebounds at some point usually around August, but he only has one short period of time where he's really killing the ball. Without looking at the numbers I believe Belt's most consistent season was either in 2012, or 2016. This season is much of the same, he looked really good then fell off, I'm sorry that Randy and you were fooled by it. I was not, and I remember telling Randy at the time that Brandon was still the same old Brandon. Unfortunately I was correct, again.

[rog]

Again, NO power limits where he can play.


Rog -- Pete Rose played over 80% of his career at a corner position. Pete averaged a little under eight homers per season. Pete's career batting average was .303. Buster's is .307.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4733/last-nights-pregame-show#ixzz5NazgTiML

[rog]

I've heard that for years, Randy, Don being its biggest proponent.

I say it's horse crap.


Rog -- I say there just isn't enough evidence to call it "horse crap." Buster HAS hit a lot better when playing first base. He has also faced southpaws more when playing first base, and he hits left-handers better than righties. Although I have mostly disagreed with the premise, I have found that the majority of the evidence indicates Buster is a better hitter when playing first base.

But not enough and strong enough to be sure. But the evidence doesn't lean toward saying it's "horse crap." The evidence leans against it.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4733/last-nights-pregame-show?page=1#ixzz5Nb0fMieo

[rog]

Just to be clear, Buster's batting is 34 points higher when playing first base, and his OPS is 86 points higher. And the sample isnt' tiny. Buster has 823 plate appearances as a first baseman.

[klaiggeb]

So his drastically declining HR numbers mean nothing, huh, Rog?

[Islandboagie]

Rog- Just to be clear, Buster's batting is 34 points higher when playing first base, and his OPS is 86 points higher. And the sample isnt' tiny. Buster has 823 plate appearances as a first baseman.

Boagie- If we're going to be clear, let's be real clear. When Posey plays first isn't it often against lefties? I'd imagine he faces lefties at a higher percentage when he's playing first. Posey's numbers are historically better against lefties than righties, which would explain the difference in numbers. It might help Posey to lengthen his career a bit by moving to first, but let's dispell this idea that Posey automatically becomes a better hitter just because he's playing first. Over the long haul it might benefit his bat, but we don't have concrete evidence of that yet, despite what Mr. Cherry Picker might say.

[klaiggeb]

All great points, boagie!

I'll add the one more that makes me NOT want him at 1B or 3B; drastically declining power numbers.

[rog]

So his drastically declining HR numbers mean nothing, huh, Rog?


Rog -- I see what you mean, but aren't we talking about two different things here? First of all, whether Buster would hit better if he played first base full time, and second if he has enough power to play there? His career marks at both catcher and first base, and his hitting comparison to Pete Rose indicate there is certainly too much evidence to say "horse crap" to Randy's statement that "As I have been pushing for this scenario for years, it is my belief that the Giants finally have adopted my thinking that as a 1st baseman, Posey will hit better and for greater power."

The evidence leans Randy's way. While I don't think a close examination -- which I have done in the past and posted here -- shows his point to be absolutely conclusive, IMO the evidence is far too strong to call his statement "horse crap."

Saying you disagree with him -- especially if you cite the available information and give us reasons why you disagree with the conclusion it might draw us (and Randy) to -- is far different than saying his statement is "horse crap."

You know how often I disagree with Randy, and I can't say I've never thought his opinion was as you called it, but in this case he simply has too much evidence to completely throw his opinion away. At least that's the way I see it, and I don't think anyone here has studied Buster's hitting as a catcher and as a first baseman closer than I have.


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Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4733/last-nights-pregame-show#ixzz5NeUoZh7R

[rog]

So his drastically declining HR numbers mean nothing, huh, Rog?


Rog -- Of course they do. But he still has Pete Rose power, and if he regains some of his health, he might once again have more. Buster has homered slightly more frequently when playing first base, and he has come up with extra base hits far more frequently.

Remember too that Buster has played more first base in recent years, when his power was down. He's both hit for a better average and for more power when playing first base.

And he's faced more left-handed pitchers when playing first base, which explains some of the advantage.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4733/last-nights-pregame-show?page=1#ixzz5NeXRR6Fy

[rog]

By the way, Boly, I do like that you're paying more attention to metrics. If you approach them as you want your students to approach learning Spanish, you'll learn a lot about and from them.

[rog]

By the way, Boly, please take the scouting test I posted a link for in the thread "How Good a Scout Are You?" You too, Randy.

And I don't mean Boy Scouts!

[rog]

Certain things are expected from batters at certain positions.

For instance, less hitting and especially less power is expected from middle infielders and center fielders. They're the guys whose physical types need to lend themselves to speed and soft hands, since they need them to play their positions, and those positions are more defensively important that corner spots.

Thus we look for more power from the corner spots, where players don't have to be as fast and have as much finesse.

But just give me guys who can hit, and they'll score runs. No question a guy like Mark Trumbo has a lot more power than Buster Posey, but Buster is the hitter who will contribute more to the offense. I'm a huge power guy, but just give me guys who don't make outs, and the other team will never come to bat at home games. Power is important, but simply getting on base -- and thereby avoiding losing one of the team's precious 27 outs -- is more so.

You know how they say "Keep the line moving?" It is only when the line stops moving that the inning begins to end.

Speaking of keeping the line moving, an analytical study was done which showed that in the season when Barry Bonds reached base a record 60% of the time, had the pitchers not known he was doing so and Barry didn't even swing the bat, he would likely have reached base about that same 60% of the time. That's how often pitchers walked him.

No one has ever had a season like that, and I'm not sure anyone will again. That was FAR more impressive than Joe Dimaggio's 56-game hitting streak, which also will be a tough catch.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- By the way, Boly, I do like that you're paying more attention to metrics. If you approach them as you want your students to approach learning Spanish, you'll learn a lot about and from them.

Boagie- As long as you don't let it cloud your judgement, like most stats geeks have allowed it to do.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie- As long as you don't let it cloud your judgement, like most stats geeks have allowed it to do.
***boly says***

A-FREAKING-MEN!

[rog]

Now, I don't really know many sabermetricians. I don't think I know a single one personally. So my exposure to analytics has been based on what I have read and seen on TV.

Based on what I've read and seen, I think sabermetricians have their judgment clouded less by understanding sabermetrics than you guys do by not understanding them.

You guys get this ridiculous idea that when someone learns sabermetrics, he forgets everything he already knew about the game. Why would he?

[sfgdood]

what stats geeks knew about the game, before and after they became stats geeks, could fit on the eye of a needle.

[rog]

Boagie- If we're going to be clear, let's be real clear. When Posey plays first isn't it often against lefties? I'd imagine he faces lefties at a higher percentage when he's playing first. Posey's numbers are historically better against lefties than righties, which would explain the difference in numbers. It might help Posey to lengthen his career a bit by moving to first, but let's dispell this idea that Posey automatically becomes a better hitter just because he's playing first. Over the long haul it might benefit his bat, but we don't have concrete evidence of that yet, despite what Mr. Cherry Picker might say..


Rog -- I don't want to accuse you of being inattentive or having a short memory, Boagie, but I've been saying that very thing for about five years now. When I posted the numbers, I was merely stating facts, so your "cherry picker" comment was basically cherry picking.

I don't remember how the numbers came out, but I actually did a very quick analysis of how much more often Buster hit against southpaws when he played first base and pro-rated his catcher vs. first base numbers based on that. The analysis showed that apples to apples Buster hit better playing first base, but the difference wasn't nearly as great when adjusted for pitcher's hand as the raw numbers, which I apparently "cherry picked" above.

If you're going to say I cherry picked, Boagie, first of all remember the facts. Secondly, if you still feel I'm cherry picking, show how I'm doing so and which facts I SHOULD have posted. Is that asking too much?

In other words, use a scalpel, not a shovel.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4733/last-nights-pregame-show#ixzz5NmnBLHxR

[rog]

what stats geeks knew about the game, before and after they became stats geeks, could fit on the eye of a needle.


Rog -- Well, it certainly wouldn't fit inside your head.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4733/last-nights-pregame-show?page=1#ixzz5NmpMJd4R

[klaiggeb]

I worked with a guy who didn't serve as I and many of my friends did, during the Viet Nam war.

During conversations he would talk about weapons, and aircraft and tactics, all of which he got from books.

But things he never experienced.


He would also prattle on, like he had been there, of things GI's said on patrol or even in the barracks.

It was insulting and offensive to listen to because he HADN'T been there. Yet he spoke like he had first hand knowledge.

He WASN'T there, and he had no RIGHT what-so-ever to talk like he had been.


To many of us, and I'm including at least Randy here because I know he played, (and if I left anyone out, I apologize), to listen to stats geeks who NEVER PLAYED above little league, it's insulting to here them talk with authority about this, that or the other, like they'd been there and done that.

If you've never been on the mound and coming off a strong 7 innings as Bum was the other night, you have NO FREAKING IDEA what it's like to be pulled KNOWING you're strong enough, and in command enough to go back out there.

No.

All the stat geek knows is: "100 pitches. Go to the pen."

That's ridiculous!

Stat geeks haven't been there!

When I guy is on, he's ON.

Each situation is different, and to pretend otherwise is ridiculous!

That's why we get offended, Rog. We've been there.