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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 6, 2018 16:56:39 GMT -5
Randy wants to rebuild, and within the next 20+ games, I'm likely to agree.
I'm still holding out for that one hot streak...like we had to close out 2010.
We went, I believe, 30-10.
And we do have reason for hope.
McNuthin' has been just better than "stunk."
Until his last 42 at bats, so has Longoria.
We can't stay healthy, and now Cueto's gone...
Still...
But back to the rebuilding.
We don't hold many trade chips that we could or would move.
Posey and Bum aren't going anywhere.
So where does that leave us?
I'd move Andrew McNuthin as soon as we're out of it, and hopefully get back some decent prospects.
Belt can go, too.
I'd like to keep him, but he's our one BIG chip because of his power.
Watson, though I love him, too, will get us more prospects.
Randy might be right about Joe. He can't stay healthy and there IS something wrong with him.
We need a LF (still), although next year I'd like to see Slater out there.
We WILL need a RF.
Mac? Who the heck knows.
Just when he looked like the guy... AGAIN, he got hurt.
I see it this way. For sure we need:
2 SP
1-RF
I think Slater can be more than good in LF
And if we do the rest through the draft, that's fine with me.
Randy?
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 6, 2018 22:06:14 GMT -5
The Giants had two big streaks in 2010.
First they went 21-5 into early August. That part of the season is already gone this year.
Then they went 17-8 just before the last three games of the season. Even then, they needed the Padres to lose 10 in a row and to beat the Padres themselves the final day of the season to make the playoffs as a WILD CARD.
Do they look like a team that will win 17 out of 25 games anytime soon? And if they do, they are competing with 10 other teams. Not all those 10 teams are going to fall flat.
In order to feel reasonably good about making the playoffs, they should shoot for 90 wins. In order to win 90 games, they need to go 33-16 the rest of the way. With the rotation they have? Seriously?
It's ain't over till it's over. But it's getting reasonably close to being over unless they get hot and stay that way the rest of the season.
I just don't think they're good enough.
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 6, 2018 22:18:26 GMT -5
On the other side of the coin, let's look at what the Giants can get for the players Boly mentioned.
If they trade Andrew right now, the team they trade him too will get close to two months of his services. Going 5 for 5 certainly helped his value, but he's not showing enough power to be a difference maker. He hasn't been a true difference maker for several seasons now.
So maybe a Grade B prospect.
Brandon Belt should bring a nice return, particularly if he finishes the season strongly. The Giants will likely get best value for him over the winter, and he could bring a Grade A prospect plus another prospect or two.
Tony Watson is under contract for two more seasons. Keone Kela is under team control for three more seasons and went from being a closer to being traded recently for what appears to be a Grade B prospect. Watson might be slightly more valuable.
I think the Giants can cover for Watson. McCutchen is going to become a free agent anyway. Belt would need to be replaced, and his shoes on both sides of the ball are both literally and figuratively big to fill. Belt probably will be gone by 2020 anyway though. That's when Joey Bart should arrive.
So the Giants can likely get one truly good prospect and a handful of others if they trade those three players (which seems a very good idea). The point I'm making is that rebuilding isn't easy and it takes time. Almost always it takes draft picks to have an impact.
It's time to rebuild, but it's also a time for patience. And that's a tough combination for our spoiled Giants fans to stomach.
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Post by Islandboagie on Aug 6, 2018 22:25:36 GMT -5
Rog- Then they went 17-8 just before the last three games of the season. Even then, they needed the Padres to lose 10 in a row and to beat the Padres themselves the final day of the season to make the playoffs as a WILD CARD.
Boagie- Interesting. For the last 8 years I had thought the Giants won the division in 2010.
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 6, 2018 22:37:06 GMT -5
You are correct, Boagie, that the Giants did win the NL West in 2010. But they weren't even guaranteed the PLAYOFFS until the final day of the regular season. That would seem to be the more important point.
But, yes, I mispoke when I said the Giants won the Wild Card. That was not the case.
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 6, 2018 22:37:57 GMT -5
So if we were to assess the Giants' chances of making the playoffs this season, how high would we rank them?
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Aug 7, 2018 0:44:30 GMT -5
If I were the GM, I'd have a meeting and let everyone know NOBODY is safe from potential trade. Not Bum, not Posey, not Craw, not NOBODY. "No trade" clauses be damned. This shit would be getting blown up...BIGLY. If they don't like it, I'll remind them they brought it on themselves by not winning.
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Post by rxmeister on Aug 7, 2018 7:28:55 GMT -5
McCutchen has nine homeruns on the road this year, just three at home. That means if he played in a park with reasonable dimensions and warmer temps he’d probably hit 25 homeruns this year. That ain’t “McNothing.” Next year he’ll be elsewhere and you’ll be wondering why he’s so much better. And you’ll be calling some other good player a disappointment.
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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 7, 2018 9:49:11 GMT -5
Sorry, Mark, but that just won't fly with me.
He's McNuthin' for a number of reasons, not the LEAST OF WHICH is his continual failure to drive in runs from the 3 hole spot.
He has been just the other side of terrible, both at the plate, and in the field.
He's a road hazard in RF.
He takes bad angles and gets bad jumps.
He has screwed up more plays in RF than anyone we've had playing at AT&T.
He's be thrown out trying to steal 6 times in 15 attempts.
You can have him.
Pittsburgh saw the writing on the wall, and outside of his popularity with the fans, are likely glad he's gone.
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Post by Islandboagie on Aug 7, 2018 13:33:37 GMT -5
After last night's game, it's clear this team just doesn't have it. Our bullpen is decent on paper, but in games in which would send a message to the rest of baseball and establish confidence with our guys, we end up choking hard. Smith doesn't have ice in his veins. He choked in 2016, and last night which had a playoff feel in my opinion, he choked again. Shutting out the Astros would have been big, but our guys are incapable of not crumbling under the pressure.
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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 7, 2018 18:58:54 GMT -5
You nailed it, boagie, twice.
Ray Black, in a DON'T THROW ANOTHER FASTBALL situation to a FASTBALL HITTER, did just that.
I've seen other giant teams that are pathetic, but this one leads the pack.
And from now on it's "giants" with a small "g".
They don't deserve a capitol 'g'
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Post by rxmeister on Aug 7, 2018 19:14:03 GMT -5
Disagree. Will Smith has been incredible, you expect him to be perfect? And 2016, Smith gets the blame for that inning? As for Ray Black he was just talking the other day about how he shook off Posey in his first appearance and he learned to trust both Posey and Hundley and never shake them off again. I agree that he needed to show a different pitch there, but that’s Hundley’s fault for calling for the same pitch over and over. Even Kruk and Kuip questioned that. I don’t think Posey would have done that. Black has the second highest spin rate in baseball on his slider, throwing it there would have been strike three.
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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 7, 2018 21:16:36 GMT -5
Agree, Mark.
I should have remembered who was catching... and that Black is a kid with a great fastball.
Kids with great fastballs are dangerous... to BOTH teams.
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Post by Islandboagie on Aug 7, 2018 21:27:14 GMT -5
I don't expect Smith to be perfect, but I do expect any player in a Giants uniform to not save their WORST performances for the biggest moments. It's like our entire bullpen has turned into Clayton Kershaw, on paper we look good, under pressure we become everyone's bitch. You might think that's ok, Mark, but I can't accept that.
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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 7, 2018 21:34:41 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 7, 2018 22:56:51 GMT -5
"No trade" clauses be damned.
Rog -- You're right about that. The Giants could simply release the players with no-trade contracts. That's legal.
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 7, 2018 23:32:17 GMT -5
Smith doesn't have ice in his veins. He choked in 2016 Rog -- Sometimes I get so MAD at you, Boagie. You don't know what you're talking about on this one. Yes, I realize Will gave up a hit to the one batter he faced in Game 4 of the 2016 NLDS. He did so on the type of hit on which batters bat .240. The ball simply found a hole. Otherwise perhaps it would have been a double play (although I don't remember whether the double play was even in order.) So now Will pitches a very poor game after allowing zero runs in his seven saves and one win. In those seven saves and one win he allowed two hits and no walks while striking out 14. In other words, he was close to perfect. So now he blows one save, and he doesn't have ice in his veins? By the way, isn't it better to have ice WATER. Having ice in one's veins would likely lead to a heart attack. Now, Will WAS bad last night. VERY bad. So bad in fact that if he hadn't been the closer, he likely would have been removed after the two walks. It was clear that he was struggling badly with his release point on his breaking ball, and he was also inconsistent with the fastball. This from the guy who is likely the best at painting corners of any Giants pitcher. But, gosh. Seven saves and a win as Giants closer, with just two hits and nothing else allowed, and suddenly he doesn't have ice (sic) in his veins? You're much better than this, Boagie. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4731/rebuilding?page=1#ixzz5NYW7lBV4
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 7, 2018 23:41:15 GMT -5
I do expect any player in a Giants uniform to not save their WORST performances for the biggest moments. Rog -- Then you don't understand baseball, and you don't understand sports, Boagie. Many consider Kobe Bryant to be one of the best basketball players ever. He was perhaps best known for making the key shot. But if one bothered to look, Kobe actually shot a very POOR percentage in game-ending situations. No question he was successful many times. No question he wasn't afraid to take the last shot. Also no question he wasn't very accurate in such situations. Baseball is FULL of very fine players who "coughed it up" at key moments. Think Billy Buckner was a choke artist? Heck no. He competed like Pete Rose and played at not too far below a Hall of Fame level. Yet what is he best known for? How about Babe Ruth? Think he was any good? Did you know that Babe made the last out OF A WORLD SERIES getting thrown out trying to steal? Study baseball, Boagie, and you'll learn a lot. Guaranteed. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4731/rebuilding?page=1#ixzz5NYf9dN91
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 7, 2018 23:52:33 GMT -5
The vast majority of those saves were really blown HOLDS, not blown saves, Boly. That's why we should often remind ourselves that numbers don['t lie -- but we often misinterpret them.
After the game I believe they said the Giants had still won something like 46 out of 49 times when they led after eight innings. Maybe the true picture lies somewhere in between, but clearly you're looking out of context at the numbers you found, (Although thank you for finding them, by the way.)
Now, have the set up men and middle relievers given up a lot of runs when the Giants were ahead? Clearly they have. But apparently the CLOSERS haven't fared all that badly if the Giants have such a fine record when leading after eight.
You realize, Boly, that even the best fail at very unfortunate times. Willie McCovey hit the heck out of the ball, but he made the final out that cost the Giants the 1962 World Series.
Baseball is a game of FAILURE. You guys know that. And some of those failures are going to come at inopportune times. That's baseball.
I don't know where he will go from here, but Will Smith has EXCELLED overall as the Giants' closer. I mean, until last night, he had been almost unbelievable. Not just that he got almost everyone out, but that he did so with such precision.
In fact, Will has been quite good in his entire Giants career -- even though it was interrupted by Tommy John surgery.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Aug 8, 2018 0:57:34 GMT -5
it was Romo that choked in 2016
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Post by Islandboagie on Aug 8, 2018 2:05:20 GMT -5
Smith doesn't have ice in his veins. He choked in 2016
Rog -- Sometimes I get so MAD at you, Boagie. You don't know what you're talking about on this one.
Yes, I realize Will gave up a hit to the one batter he faced in Game 4 of the 2016 NLDS. He did so on the type of hit on which batters bat .240. The ball simply found a hole. Otherwise perhaps it would have been a double play (although I don't remember whether the double play was even in order.)
Boagie- Let's get a few things straight here...I absolutely know what I'm talking about, you might just not agree. Yes, I agree the ball simply found a hole, but how about he let those balls simply find holes in a game that isn't the most important game of the year? Get outs in the games that really matter. I'm not specifically blaming him, but he was brought in to do a job, and he didn't get it done. As randy points out, Romo also sucked, collectively the bullpen sucked. They all were asked to get their guy out, and none of them could. The only one who did ok was Strickland but by then it was too late. So I'm not laying it all on Smith. But let's face it, if Smith blew saves in games that didn't matter and stepped up in big games you wouldn't have to make excuses for him.
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 8, 2018 8:58:25 GMT -5
it was Romo that choked in 2016
Rog -- I believe the Giants used five (maybe "only" four) relievers in the 9th inning of Game 4 of the NLDS, and none was very successful in getting outs. Derek Law began the inning, and the Cubs' rally was made up mostly of balls that fell in or found holes as opposed to balls that were well-hit.
As virtually everyone here knows, I have long advocated that the Giants should have used their best reliever in that situation. Perhaps used a right-hander on Bryant, and then have brought him in.
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 8, 2018 9:04:05 GMT -5
As for Black/Hundley's pitch selection, I would have thrown at least one curve and perhaps two. On the other hand, Black had hung at least one breaking ball earlier in the inning.
If Black had thrown a curve ball and hung it, we would likely have complained that Hundley called that pitch when it was obvious that White couldn't catch up to the 100 mph fastball. And indeed he didn't. The pitch came in at only 99.
You guys that have played at high levels realize that sometimes you've got to be in the position to know what goes through your mind. And you also know that with a catcher calling around 150 pitches per game, not every call is going to be perfect.
Hey, I agree with you guys at least one curve ball was called for. But there is also this stupid adage in baseball that you get beat with your best pitch. Black got beaten with his best pitch.
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 8, 2018 9:05:12 GMT -5
By the way, Duane Kuiper has gotten pretty subtle at disagreeing with a pitch call. That's a nice accomplishment.
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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 8, 2018 9:36:51 GMT -5
The vast majority of those saves were really blown HOLDS, not blown saves, Boly.
***boly says***
Go look at the STATISTICS on the link I posted, Rog.
They are called BLOWN SAVES, not blown holds.
You asked me often to back up my statements with numbers.
And now when I FIND the numbers, you're telling me the numbers are wrong?
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 8, 2018 23:05:52 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 8, 2018 23:24:12 GMT -5
Go look at the STATISTICS on the link I posted, Rog. They are called BLOWN SAVES, not blown holds. You asked me often to back up my statements with numbers. And now when I FIND the numbers, you're telling me the numbers are wrong? Rog -- No, what I'm telling you is that you're misinterpreting the numbers. I guess because in theory virtually every relief opportunity with a reasonable lead (and some that are bigger than we would reasonably expect to be a save), blown holds aren't recorded. Blown holds are recorded as blown saves. The Giants' closers haven't blown anything close to 25 save opportunities. Heck, they've scarcly HAD 25 shall we call them "closer" save opportunities, and they have 26 saves. We're all over Will Smith because he has blown one save out of eight "closer" save opportunities. One thing we haven't even mentioned in detail is that he probably should have been pulled after the two walks. If it was every clear that a pitcher wasn't himself, that was the case. I know, closers are almost never pulled after just two walks, but don't tell me it wasn't obvious that Will wasn't himself. For starters, he hadn't given up a walk since June 22nd. No, it's not that he hadn't given up two walks in a single game. It's that he hadn't given up a single walk in ANY game. I have to say I've enjoyed Will's closing perhaps more than any other Giants closer. He's done a great job of hitting the corners, and his breaking ball is killer. Monday he wasn't that same pitcher. Since becoming the closer, Smith has thrown 70% strikes. That's better than Greg Maddux. The WORST he had done in those games was to throw "only" two-thirds strikes. And as we so clearly saw, most of those strikes were high quality strikes. Monday night Will didn't even reach 50% strikes. You know more about pitching than any of us, Boly. By the time he faced White, you knew Will didn't have it that night. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4731/rebuilding?page=1#ixzz5NeOm8IuX
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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 9, 2018 10:50:45 GMT -5
Rog -- No, what I'm telling you is that you're misinterpreting the numbers. I guess because in theory virtually every relief opportunity with a reasonable lead (and some that are bigger than we would reasonably expect to be a save), blown holds aren't recorded. Blown holds are recorded as blown saves.
***boly says***
Look at the link I provided.
it says Saves, Blown saves.
That's not MY interpretation, that's theirs.
But as far as I'm concerned, a blown hold, IS exactly the same as a blown save
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rog
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Post by rog on Aug 9, 2018 21:48:12 GMT -5
Look at the link I provided. it says Saves, Blown saves. That's not MY interpretation, that's theirs. But as far as I'm concerned, a blown hold, IS exactly the same as a blown save Rog -- It's not their interpretation either. It's the way theoritical but not necessarily realistic save chances are recorded. And because of what I'm about to write, I think there should be a separate category for blown holds. When one is evaluating a bullpen as a whole, saves, holds and blown saves (as they are recorded now) are useful. But when one is evaluating closers, as we've been doing in this thread, the only blown saves that are useful are the saves blown by the pitcher who is actually closing the game. Including overall team blown saves in evaluating a closer or closers would be similar to including all the outs made by the #3 hitter in the #4 hitter's batting average. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4731/rebuilding#ixzz5NjtilDCq
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Post by klaiggeb on Aug 10, 2018 10:24:42 GMT -5
It really comes down to this; did the pitcher maintain the lead?
25 times, they did not.
And THAT is flat out terrible.
We lead all other teams by at least 7, if my memory is correct.
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