Well That's a Relief

[rog]

The Giants have a player who leads the league in something!

The measure includes walks, strikeouts and quality of contact.  The league average is .328.

Will Smith is the only pitcher in baseball who has controlled hitting to a rate below .200.  Will stands alone at .198.  The next best is incredible strikeout artist Josh Hader at .217.  In other words, by walks, strikeouts and quality of contact, Will has been the best pitcher in baseball -- by a LOT.

And Will isn't the only Giant high on the list.  Reyes Moronta ranks #13 at .250. 

One disappointment for Giants fans is that former Giant Kyle Crick ranks #17 at .260.  Put in a more positive light though, Smith is nearly twice as much better than league average than Crick.

One could make an argument that thus far this season, Will Smith has bounced back from Tommy John surgery to be the best reliever in baseball -- by a bunch.

As an aside for Boagie, JT Chargois is ranked #31 at .269.  For the Giants, Mark Watson is also ranked quite high -- #46 at .275.  Next on the list for the Giants is Madison Bumgarner, #199 at .321. 


Got to give credit to Madison.  He's not the pitcher he once was, but he has gotten really, really good at getting out of jams.  In 2015, he stood at .272, a very good number for a starter.  Yet his ERA was only four ticks lower than it is now.

[Islandboagie]

I don't know how we can claim Bumgarner is not the pitcher he once was. He's 11 starts into a season in which he broke his pitching hand, I repeat, broke his pitching hand. It's expected to have some cobwebs and control issues. It's worth mentioning that in 7 of his 11 starts he's kept the opposition from scoring more than 2 runs. I don't understand why this board rips Bumgarner and defends Samardjiza. Coming off a broken hand, Bumgarner is still much better than Samardjiza at any point in a Giants uniform.

[rog]

First of all, Boagie, I think we agree that Madison is still pretty good.

Second, you are correct that it's tough to come back from injury, and Madison has had to do so each of the past two seasons.

But we're comparing Madison to Madison, not to someone else. It's not yet showing up in his results, but just as is likely the case with his ulnar collateral ligament, his pitching is fraying just a bit.

And the decline didn't begin with last year's injury. It began in 2016.

As Randy pointed out, Madison is using his fastball less. That's not even a bad thing, since it may merely show his development as a pitcher, but it does show he believes he pitches better by using the fastball less. And while his results haven't decline much, they haven't gotten better as we would expect from a better pitch mix.

Not that it's a huge deal, but Madison lost a mile off his fastball in 2016, and while he hasn't declined further -- definitely a good sign -- he hasn't gotten it back either.

In 2015 Madison's walks, strikeouts and contact given up translated to a .272 rate. (Remember, league average is .328.) The past three seasons that has grown to .281, .307 and .321.

In 2015 batters were swinging at 35% of Madison's pitches outside the strike zone. Now they're swinging at only 31%. That has decreased his swinging strike rate from 12% to 9%, which in turn has dropped his strikeout rate from 27% to 20%.

Madison's walk rate of four and a half percent in 2015 has more than doubled to nine and a half percent this season. His hard-hit rate has jumped from 28% to 37%.

Madison is getting similar results. His ERA has been stable. But the factors underlying those results are declining almsot across the board, which likely means his ERA will start to grow. Even though his ERA has remained stable, his WHIP has leapt from 1.01 in 2015 to 1.26 this season.

One positive could be that Madison's "problems" are indeed injury-related, which might mean an improvement next season or even over the rest of 2018. Still, I would be a seller, not a buyer. Stay tuned.

[sfgdood]

Isn't that guy's name Josh Hater?

[rog]

Acutally, it's Hader, but you were Billy Klaus.

[Islandboagie]

I don't think he's pitched enough since his injury to claim he's no longer the pitcher he once was. These stats that your quoting can be explained by slight control problems since returning. Anything more than that is just an opinion. You might be right, but it's far from factual.

[rog]

If Madison hadn't begun his decline in 2016 and hadn't continued to decline since, I wouldn't think he is no longer the pitcher he once was. If it had begun just last season I would think it was injury-related. If it had begun this season I wouldn't have to worry about how well he recoved from his significant shoulder injury and could have blamed it on the finger injury, which wouldn't seem to be nearly as serious.

As for whether what I posted is factual, the things I presented as factual are indeed factual. Whether they support my conclusion is the matter of import. It's broad evidence that as increased over the past three seasons, so while I would say you're right on the money that my conclusion isn't necessarily fact, the evidence that supports it is strong and broad.

The stats I posted began three years ago, so they can't truly be explained by slight control problems since returning. Something you might consider doing, Boagie, is go back through the stats and examine the time frames they cover. If we were drawing a graph of almost any of them, the graph would be heading southeast. What we want to see in players' graphs are that they are heading northeast or at least straight east or very close to it.

Southeast may have been good for the Confederacy, but it's not good for progress. Northeast may not have the weather, but it's good for progress.