The Good, The Bad and the Luck

[rog]

I've mentioned that Andrew McCutchen, Joe Panik and to some extent Evan Longoria have hit in bad luck this season.  I hadn't looked it up, but apparently Alen Hanson has enjoyed the opposite:


www.mccoveychronicles.com/2018/7/26/17616996/san-francisco-giants-alen-hansons-batted-ball-luck-is-running-out


By the way, I like Alen.  I love the way he went hard into third base last night and even when held up, stayed strong into the double threat stance where he could go either way as the ball dictated.  Love the advantage and excitement created by his speed.  I mentioned when he was signed that he could be a guy who helped.  I saw him as depth and possibly a bit more.

But I also try to stay objective about players, and as well has he has filled in at multiple positions for the Giants, he's still a utilityman.  The shame is that he doesn't hit southpaws.  That makes him somewhat duplicative with, rather than complementary to Pablo Sandoval coming off the bench.  Alen does have more defensive versatility and obviously two or three steps more speed.

One factor that helps balance the bench is that Hunter Pence (or Austin Slater) and Nick Hundley bat right-handed, helping out against southpaws.  That's usually all a bench is -- four bats.  Alen does have the advantage of being the one to provide versatility, a benefit that could keep him around quite a while.  He seems to be ahead of both Tomlinson and d'Arnaud for that role.

Alen brings several things to the table -- switch hitter, speed, versatility.  Boly has pointed out some of his flaws.  Alen has proved value to the Giants.  What he hasn't provided is a starting-caliber player.

[sfgdood]

If any of you want to give me severe ulcers or agita, just keep spewing that 'bad luck' excuse for Giants hitters

[rog]

What I discuss isn't excuses, Randy, it's facts and informed opinion.

As you know from when you played, sometimes it seems you hit the heck out of the ball, but it finds leather. Other times you barely get your bat on the ball, and it dribbles too short to throw you out, just gets through the infield, or bloops in. Still other times, it seems you're getting results close to the way you're hitting (although, admit it -- sometimes you got about what you deserved but still felt a little "cheated").

It's important when evaluting a hitter to get as much information as one can -- from watching and from whatever other sources are available -- in order to more properly evalutate a hitter. Right now, for instance, if a team got Joe Panik, he might not need to hit the ball better in order for his average to rise. He might simply need better luck.

There are other factors that go into batting average besides hitting the ball hard, of course. Where a hitter hits it and how often he hits it come into play. But if a guy keeps hitting the ball hard, chances are eventually they'll start to fall in and get through.

In a way, when he returns Joe will be like getting a new second baseman. With any acquistion, you hope he plays at least as well as he's been playing -- and hopefully better. If Joe hits better and/or if he starts getting better luck, he'll hit better over the rest of the season as he's hit so far.

The difference between what Statcast projects his average to be based on exit velocity and launch angle is so much higher than Joe's actual average that if I were a team trying to improve my lineup at the deadline, he'd be a guy I would strongly look at. The Giants have him already!

There's certainly no guarantee of course. His bad luck may continue. He may not continue to hit the ball as well as he has thus far. Statcast's projections may be off. But the odds are good that Joe will improve upon his return, and perhaps improve by a lot. I'd rather have that than to have a player who has been lucky returning.

So no excuse. Just some facts and information that may bode well for the future.

[rog]

Joe went 1 for 3 in his first rehab game with the River Cats. Not surprisingly, he didn't strike out. If you want to find out more, you can do so by going to milb.com and looking at the play-by-play of last night's game.

[sfgdood]

When I played, I was taught by every coach I ever had to NEVER make excuses for not performing....NEVER.

[rog]

So who was making excuses? Certainly not Joe Panik. I'm not sure where your comment came from.

Plus, before you mentioned it, we already knew your coach told you that. It's standard fare.

Not sure if it will be on in the Bay Area, but in the Sacramento area tomorrow night's River Cats game is in the CW Network. Should be worth a watch if it is.

Do they still have some of the San Jose Giants games on TV in the Bay Area?