Is Duggar Dunn?

[rog]

Remember when Adam Dunn was still playing how we laughed at him for striking out so much?  He did strike out a lot.  Once every 2.90 at bats in fact.

We're all hoping that Steven Duggar will be the Giants' lead off man of the future -- if not the present.  This season Duggar has struck out once every ... 2.97 at bats.  That's between AAA and the Giants.  In the big leagues, he's struck out once every 2.4 at bats.

But it gets worse.

In addition to hitting 462 career home runs, Dunn walked a lot.  So he struck out once every 3.5 plate appearances.  This season Duggar has struck out once every 3.3 trips.

To rub salt into the wound, the Giants want Duggar to take advantage of his great speed by stealing bases.  Steve's best was 15 steals in 2016.  Dunn's best in the minors was 24, and his best in the majors was 19.

Oh, and the season Steve stole 15 bases he was thrown out 14 times -- barely a 50% pace.  When Dunn stole 24 bases, he was thrown out five times -- an 83% success rate.  When he stole 19 bases, he was caught on nine occasions -- a 68% rate.

To his credit, Steve has stolen 11 out of 15 bases this season -- a 73% success rate.

But, almost shockingly, what we've got here is that so far Duggar has struck out more frequently this season (based on plate appearances) than Dunn did -- and despite all his speed, Duggar has yet to become close to the base stealer Dunn was early on.

Dunn hit 38 or more homers in seven straight seasons and eight out of nine.  Steven has hit 10 homers ... once ... in the minors.

Of course the one area Duggar has a HUGE edge in is in the field, where he is as good as Dunn was bad.  But at the plate?  Duggar is Dunn without the power.

And, shockingly, he isn't even as good a base stealer.  Duggar has potential, but he has miles to go before he sleeps.

[klaiggeb]

This comparison is a stretch, Rog.

Really a huge stretch.

The kid strikes out.

No surprise to me, none at all.

I pointed out in SPRING FREAKING TRAINING that he had a long, long swing.


Long swings have inherent problems built in, and until he becomes shorter, and quicker to the ball, expect this trend to continue.

[sfgdood]

If I recall correctly Dunn never had gold glove skills

[rxmeister]

If you think Duggar strikes out a lot, wait until Chris Shaw gets here! At least Shaw is a power hitter though. I agree that Duggar is overhyped, but as a CF there’s a little less offensive required than a corner outfielder, so I think he’ll have a long successful career in the big leagues. He’s certainly going to be a far better hitter than Billy Hamilton, who the Giants were so hot on getting in the off season.

[klaiggeb]

Wow! Once again, Mark! Great comparisons and examples!

[rog]

Adam didn't approach Gold Glove skills, Randy. That's why I was making only offensive comparisons.

Hey, they're not even similar players. As Mark mentioned, Chris Shaw would be a better comparison to Adam. But that also part of the point. Steve has struck out like Adam, and he doesn't have nearly enouogh power or on-base skills to compensate.

As Mark and I mentioned, Steve's glove may be enough to carry him. At this point I see Steve's most likely future role as the strong side of a platoon -- say with Gorkys, for instance.

My biggest point regarding Steven is that while we've been praising his hitting until recently, all along -- including at Sacramento -- he's been showing a huge strikeout chink in his armor. Defensively Steve appears to be very good. Offensively he's got a lot of improving to do.

Until recently we've been praising the hitting of the so-called "Doubles Machine," but in reality he's been overmatched.

My comparison of Steven to Adam as a base stealer wasn't because Adam was anywhere near as fast as Steven is, but because it illustrates the importance of Steven being able to utilize his speed to steal bases -- which he began improving improving in the Arizola Fall League as you'll recall.

But right now Steven seems to me to project as a very good fielder, an above-average to good base stealer, and a mediocre-at-best hitter. Until he joined the Giants, Steven had shown an ability to get on base. That has disappeared since joining the Giants. Until he began the season with the River Cats, he hadn't been overly alarming with his strikeouts.

But he dipped into the "bad" strikeout level in Sacramento, and with the Giants, he's been close to awful in that regard.
The pitch that has just been KILLING him is the change up. You mentioned that his swing was longer than average, Boly. Clearly cutting down on that should help, but is it something he can do without a winter to work on it?

What drills would you recommend for him over the winter, Boly (or others), and what would you do in the short run?

The primary reason Steven looked like he might be an acceptable hitter was that he covered his strikeouts up somewhat with a high walk rate. This season the strikeout rate has soared, and with the Giants, the walk rate has slowed to drought-like proportions.

Steven has walked just once with the Giants while striking out 16 times. A non-power guy can't make it beyond being a Four A player with ratios like that. The good news is that Steve's sample is small. The bad news is that the situation is getting worse rather than better.

I think Steven's major league curve at the plate over time is beginingn to look a little like Christian Arroyo's of last season. By the way, Christian has hit decently in his small sample with the Rays, but he has struggled as much in AAA at he blew that level up last season. Matt Duffy is doing very nicely there. Denard Span has been traded to the Mariners, but he's hit well for both teams this season.

I don't know if anyone noticed when I posted that Denard was shockingly ahead of Brandon Crawford in both runs and RBI's, but would anyone here have expected that? If you did, you're a better man than I.

[klaiggeb]

If you want to compare Duggar and his striking out to another player, pick one who does NOT swing for the fences with every at bat.

That's why the Finley comparison was so good.

From 1996-2004, Finley struck out 82 times ore more, 8 times in those 9 years!

And he was a lead off guy, too!

Then take a look at Finley's OBP; .332 over all.


Duggar has a much better eye and will likely...LIKELY have a much better OBP, too.

[rog]

I liked Bruce Bochy's comparison to Steve Finley, and there is something of a physical resemblance. Maybe stance-wise too, although I don't remember Finley in that regard. Both very good defensive center fielders.

But Steve stole a lot more bases and had a lot more power. Of course we're also talking about an excellent player. Steven doesn't have to be as good as Steve in order to help the Giants a fair amount, and I'm sure the DON'T expect him to be as good.

[rog]

I see you made the comparison too, Boly. And in some ways it's a good one.

Where it isn't strong is that Steve hit over 300 homers in his career and didn't strike out nearly as often as Steven looks like he will. As an example, as a rookie Steve struck out 30 times in 241 plate appearances. Steven has fanned 16 times in 39 PA's.

I think the physical comparison may be the best. Steve is listed at 6-foot-2 and 175 pounds. I would have thought he was heavier than Steven, but Duggar is listed at the same 6-foot-2, but at 189 pounds.

Finley did begin his career with little power but grew in that regard to where he hit 28 or more in five different seasons. I hate to say it, so I'll simply ask: steroids? I hope not, but his career power line shows he went from a high of 11 homers in his first seven seasons to the 28 or more in four of the next five seasons.

[rog]

Duggar has a much better eye


Rog -- Perhaps not. Figures are available for only Steve's final six seasons, but he swung at 19% of balls and 63% of strikes during that time. In a very small sample, Steven has swung at 27% of balls and 72% of strikes.

[klaiggeb]

Than Finley?

With a .332 OBP?

I don't think so.

Then again, it's a small sample size for Duggar.

But your response is A GREAT EXAMPLE of why everyone says you cherry pick your stats, Rob.

I'm talking OBP, and you're talking something else.

[rog]

The small sample argument is a good one -- although Steven's very high strikeout rate at Sacramento leads me to believe that he swung at a fair amount of pitches outside the strike zone there.

Let's put it this way: Steven's high strikeout rate both for the Giants and for the River Cats indicate at least one of the following:

. He swings at too many bad pitches.

. He takes too many good ones.

. He's not a great contact hitter.


All THREE
If a hitter swings at too many bad pitches, he is unlikely to have a high OBP -- unless he's a power hitter who gets pitched around a lot.

If a hitter takes too many strikes, that isn't as damaging -- although with two strikes it hurts.

If a hitter doesn't make consistent contact, he isn't likely to have a high OBP -- unless he's a power hitter who gets pitched around a lot and/or has a very good eye.

Let's put this in a couple of contexts, and please follow along closerly here. When a batter hits the ball on the field of play, it's going to get caught far more often than it's going to be a hit. For instance, even on line drives, the defense records an out three out of 10 times. On ground balls, it's closer to three out of four, and on fly balls, four out of five. Evena great hitter like Tony Gwynn had a hard time batting over say .350 when he put the ball into play on the playing field.

Mookie Betts leads the majors in hitting this season with a .351 batting average. He has batted .354 when he has hit the ball on the field where it could fall in, get through, or get caught and/or thrown to first base. .354. The major league average is around .300.

Between SF and Sacramento, Duggar his batted .391 when he has put the ball in the field of play. Is Duggar in any way, shape or form close to Betts as a hitter? Obviously the answer is no, which means that unless he cuts down on his strikeouts, Steve's average is going to fall quite a bit. His on base percentage between majors and minors is roughtly 10 points higher than Finley's .332.

When Duggar's average falls significantly -- and it will fall if he doesn't stop striking out so much -- it will fall right along with it. Major league pitchers aren't going to allow Steven to hit the ball as well as he did in the minors, and when he does hit it, major league fielders are going to record more outs.

The ball has fallen in for Steven this year at a .391 clip. The major league average is around .300. Is Steven really that much better than the average hitter when he puts the ball in the field of play?

Of course he isn't. Which means that without a reduction in strikeouts, his average is going to fall considerably -- and along with it, his OBP.

Sorry, Boly. If Steven doesn't cut back on his strikeouts considerably, he isn't going to get on base nearly as often as Steve did. With the Giants, Steve has batted an incredible .423 when he puts the ball in the field of play. Yet his on base percentage is only .279.

You see, right, how Steven must put the ball in play a whole lot more often if he is to get on base more often than Steve did? FAR more often.

There is no one who truly understands how baseball works who believes that Duggar will get on base more often than Finley did unless he cuts down on his strikeouts. If we asked Bruce Bochy, he'd say something like, "Steven is just getting used to the league. With more experience he'll put the ball in play more and also draw more walks." OK, Bruce, but if he DOESN'T put the ball in play more, will he get on base as much as Steve Finley did? "That would be pretty hard."

You've just GOT to grasp this concept, Boly. Otherwise you're not going to understand just how devastating it will be to Steven's hitting if he doesn't stop striking out so much.

[klaiggeb]

I agree; Duggar MUST cut back the "K" total.

And not by a little.

Many pros have gotten to the show and had to tweak swings. He'd better be one of them, on that we can always agree.

[rog]

Steven has such a great defensive reputation that it would be wonderful if he can hit at least decently. The strikeout problem has been on the edge of happening, but it wasn't until this year that it fully reared his ugly head.

His big thing now is to be able to hit the change up at least a little. He seems to be missing it more than getting too far out in front of it.