Lucky win

[sfgdood]

If that were a Giants RF making that piss poor effort on the ball hit by Posey in the 13th...I would be LIVID! Why are you laying back to play the carom when the winning run is at 2nd base? You need to go all out to catch the freakin ball.

[rog]

You're right about that, Randy, although I don't think he could have caught it anyway. And likely good strategy by the Cubs to have Bryant playing in, since a single was probably going to be as good as a double in that situation.

[rog]

I haven't heard it called this, but one could term the outfield in a no-singles defense.

[rog]

One thing about Bryant too is that while he's played a fair amount of outfield, he's really a third baseman. I felt as you did though that he should have just kept going, even though I don't think the result would have been any different.

[klaiggeb]

Bryant may very well be a decent outfielder...but I don't believe he's played much Rf in OUR park.

That place, as McCutchen said when he first came over, is a totally different animal.

Plus, Kris, as Kuip pointed out BEFORE the pitch, was that Kris was playing very shallow.

Factor in THAT, plus the wind, plus His inexperience in our RF... and Maddon made a HUGE positioning mistake.

That one's on the manager.

[klaiggeb]

And if that's luck, Randy, I'll take it!

Luck is something this club hasn't seen very often.

[rog]

Factor in THAT, plus the wind, plus His inexperience in our RF... and Maddon made a HUGE positioning mistake.

That one's on the manager.


Rog -- Yesterday I was accused of blindly defending Joe Maddon, so my timing isn't very good here, but I don't think it was bad positioning, and I mentioned a "no-singles" defense.

Defenses are of course called based on the circumstances at hand. Hitters are played differently based on where they hit the ball most often.

The outfield plays way in when a sacrifice fly will win the game. The outfielders play as deep as they can and believe they can still throw the runner out, but with most human arms, that means they play shallower than usual. It helps them cut off singles, and if a ball is hit over their head, well, the run was going to score anyway on a sacrifice fly.

Conversely, they play very deep and toward the alleys when an extra base hit will be particularly damaging (as with a runner at first base).

And finally, they play somewhere between normal depth and the sacrifice fly defense when a hit will win the game. Why does an outfield play as deep as they do? Because an extra base hit hurts more than a single. That's why they play EXTRA deep in the no-doubles defense.

So when a single is likely to hurt as much as a double, it makes sense to move the outfield into something like a Willie Mays depth. Willie, of course, played a shallow outfield because he could go back and get 'em better than just about anybody. By doing so, he cut off a lot of singles and also limited extra bases taken by runners on singles.

Hitters are usually more likely to hit the ball closer to the middle than to the foul lines. Thus, in the no-singles defense, the corner outfielders cheat the middle a tiny bit. Likewise, a ball is more likely to be hit in front of the normal position of the outfielder than over his head, so the outfielders play a little more shallow.

In this case Bryant MIGHT have made the catch if he had been playing deeper. It would have taken an excellent play, but if he could have gotten to the fence with jumping room, he might have had it. But particularly with Buster's lack of power due to his hip, playing closer meant playing the odds.

I don't know whether Maddon called for the shallow position, the positioning coach called for it, or if Bryant himself read the situation. Regardless, the ultimate responsibility lies with Maddon. But whoever made the call, I think that even though it didn't work out, it was the right one. Remember, a call is right or wrong when it is made -- not when the result is known. Sometimes you make the right call, and it just doesn't work out. Other times you make the wrong call, but luck isnt on your side.

In baseball you identify and play the odds. No matter what you do, sometimes you're going to be wrong. But in this case being wrong on a ball in front of the fielder was pretty close to as devastating as being wrong on the ball hit over his head.

You simply play shallower in that situation. Come on. You guys KNOW this. You probably knew it when you played high school ball, whether your coach taught it to you or not.



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[klaiggeb]

A no singles defense in OUR RF makes no sense, Roger.

None.

Zero.

Short porch out there already makes it a short field.

Maddon made a mistake, that's my position.

He out'thunk' himself.

[rog]

You are right, Boly, that luck DOES happen when the opposition makes a mistake.

If we assume that yesterday's positioning was a mistake and that the ball could have been caught with the proper defense, the Giants benefited from the mistake, so for them it was luck.

But the Cubs had control over the positioning, so if they made a positioning mistake, it wasn't bad luck on their part -- it was a mistake. Bad luck for them would have been if they had positioned in the place that gave them the best odds, but the ball blooped in anyway.

We discussed this in the 2010 NLDS. It is very possible for a play to be good luck for one team but simply a mistake -- not a matter of luck -- for the other team.

[Islandboagie]

I'm lost here, why would anyone think it was ok to position the outfielders shallow when there's 2 outs? With two outs you should play at normal depth. As Rog pointed out, the reason for playing shallow is to prevent the runner from scoring on a sac fly, or if Emmanuel Burriss is at the plate.

I wasn't paying attention if Bryant was playing shallow or not, but he clearly pulled up when he saw the wall coming. As Randy said, he just made a piss poor effort. I don't think it had to do with his positioning at all.

[garyd4sf]

How many games are decided by strategy that backfires. I guess quite a few.

Posey lately has hit mostly singles with very little pop in his bat lately. I expect that the Cubs played that way in this scheme to meet the odds. Don't let Posey get a winning RBI on a shallow single.

The catch would have been iffy since in RF there is a menagerie of possibilities with that wall/fence. I've seen McCutcheon struggle that way.

[klaiggeb]

Kuip pointed out prior to the at bat, where Bryant was positioned.

Though Bryant "may" be a good outfielder, that is NOT his normal position.

In addition, as I pointed out, he's not played in OUR RF very often.

He's also NOT accustomed to the way AT&T plays due to the winds.

This is a point that Andrew McCutcen mentioned when HE first took up the challenge of playing our RF.

Or RF wall is a short porch, and even though Kris "may" have been aware of that intellectually, instinctively he was ill prepared to deal with IT, and the winds out there.


I do NOT think he made a piss poor effort.

Far from it.

I've seen so many other outfielders, as well as OUR OWN, McCutchen comes to mind, do the exact same thing.

Lacking experience out there is EVERYTHING.

Randy Winn has said that multiple times.

Hunter Pence has talked about the intricacies of playing there.

With those 2 pros saying that, and likely others that I'm not aware of, we're really going to call Bryant's effort piss poor?


IMHO, no way.

Had Maddon played him in the RF's normal position, likely he makes that play.

But he didn't.

This was an error on MADDON, no one else.


Experience out there is everything, and he had none.

[dkuritzky]

Jul 12, 2018 15:46:27 GMT -5 klaiggeb said:

A no singles defense in OUR RF makes no sense, Roger.

None.

Zero.

Short porch out there already makes it a short field.

Maddon made a mistake, that's my position.

He out'thunk' himself.

dk...when was the last time that Posey hit the right field wall on the fly...odds were that Posey wasn't hit a long ball in that spot.......

[sfgdood]

I wouldn't say the defense employed made NO sense, but I sure wouldn't employ it in that situation. Posey's power has diminihed but he is hardly a slap singles hitter.

[garyd4sf]

In his last 20 games Posey has 15 hits.....12 singles and 3 doubles. No 3B or HR.

The cubs are one of the teams that least uses shifts according to Kruk and Kuip.

But they may likely have set up for the singles propensity.

[sfgdood]

At least one of those singles hit the wall I recall. And Posey likely hit many fly ball outs that would hve been hits against this defense

[klaiggeb]

And in the last 5 or 6 games, Buster has actually barrelled up some balls and hit them very hard. Most of which, however, in complete consonance with the luck this team DOESN'T have, were hit right at someone for an out.

[rog]

Darn, my post got wiped out by the connection, but I'll summarize, which you'll probably like better anyway.

I looked at Buster's spray chart against right-handers this season, and it appeared to me that Bryant's positioning might have had a negative impact on three balls Buster has hit (including this one) and a positive impact on four balls. Not much of a difference, but I'd rather have an advantage on four out of seven than three out of seven. And either way, there doesn't seem to be enough of a difference to say Bryant's positioning was wrong.

Guys, take a look at Buster's spray chart this season against right-handers and let me know what you think.

[rog]

I'm lost here, why would anyone think it was ok to position the outfielders shallow when there's 2 outs? With two outs you should play at normal depth. As Rog pointed out, the reason for playing shallow is to prevent the runner from scoring on a sac fly, or if Emmanuel Burriss is at the plate.

I wasn't paying attention if Bryant was playing shallow or not, but he clearly pulled up when he saw the wall coming. As Randy said, he just made a piss poor effort. I don't think it had to do with his positioning at all.


Rog -- Your comments more or less back up my position, Boagie, but I do want to point a few things out:

. The sacrifice fly wasn't in effect. Whether the third out was caught or whether Bryant could throw the runner out at the plate on a single was the issue. Bryant played shallow to catch a line drive in front of him or to have a better shot at throwing out Belt on a single.

. Because of the wall as you mentioned, Boagie, Bryant may not have made the play anyway, but he would have had a better CHANCE, and you do want your positioning to give your player a better chance as often as possible.




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[rog]

How many games are decided by strategy that backfires. I guess quite a few.

Posey lately has hit mostly singles with very little pop in his bat lately. I expect that the Cubs played that way in this scheme to meet the odds. Don't let Posey get a winning RBI on a shallow single.

The catch would have been iffy since in RF there is a menagerie of possibilities with that wall/fence. I've seen McCutcheon struggle that way.


Rog -- Nice summary, Gary. By my calculation the Cubs improved their odds only slightly, but a team will take even a small advantage almost every time.

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[rog]

dk...when was the last time that Posey hit the right field wall on the fly...odds were that Posey wasn't hit a long ball in that spot


Rog -- Another good point, Don. Glad you found your way back!




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[rog]

I wouldn't say the defense employed made NO sense, but I sure wouldn't employ it in that situation. Posey's power has diminihed but he is hardly a slap singles hitter.


Rog -- You're right that Buster has hit the ball a little harder than his numbers make appear, at least according to Baseball Savant, which measures exit velocites and launch angles. But I think it was more likely he would hit the ball in front of Bryant than over him. Take a look at Buster's spray chart against right-handers and see what you think.

[rog]

I do NOT think he made a piss poor effort.

Far from it.


Rog -- It might have been the right play to stop at the warning track in most situations, Boly, but it didn't matter if that hit was a single, double or triple. The runner from first didn't matter -- only the runner on second. Bryant's only play was to go as far as he could to catch the ball.




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[rog]

In his last 20 games Posey has 15 hits.....12 singles and 3 doubles. No 3B or HR.

The cubs are one of the teams that least uses shifts according to Kruk and Kuip.

But they may likely have set up for the singles propensity.


Rog -- I think your uncle would agree with you, Gary. And speaking of nicknames, how about "The Lip" as one of the great ones?



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[rog]

Had Maddon played him in the RF's normal position, likely he makes that play.


Rog -- I think it may have still been a bit unlikely, but it certainly would have given him a better chance. Because of the wall, that wasn't an easy play.