For Randy's Benefit

[rog]

I know Randy wants to get into the 21st century, so I thought he might enjoy this from MLB Trade Rumors:


While they didn’t call a great deal of attention to it, the Giants beefed up their analytics department over the offseason, writes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. San Francisco has become more aggressive in terms of infield shifting and, during Spring Training, displayed leaderboards with more modern metrics such as exit velocity in the clubhouse. Giants players have begun to ask for additional info on their launch angles and batted-ball tendencies, Pavlovic notes. Regarding the infield shifts, Pavlovic also points out that the addition of a strong defensive player in Evan Longoria, plus the increased emphasis on data, figures to make the club considerably more aggressive in terms of shifts.


When I read this I wondered if "exit velocity in the clubhouse" involved a quick shower and dressing even more quickly.  And I wondered just who performed the metrics on that one.

Regarding the last point in the article, no one has commented on whether Evan sits too high in his fielding stance as the pitch reaches the plate.  Unless it is something new this season, clearly whatever he's doing has worked out fine for him in the past, but isn't his stance higher than is usually considered optimal?  It seems like he would have a quicker, more explosive and more effective first step if he were a little lower and got his thighs and glutes more into that first step.

Here is something ironic about the Giants' increased usage of overshifts.  Maybe with the Giants more on board, the number of overshifts will once again increase.  But the last couple of season the usage has hit a plateau and even decreased a bit.  Maybe hitters are making at least a little adjustment.

[Islandboagie]

When i listened to the ESPN broadcast, Alex Rodriguez agreed with Barry Bonds that exit velocity was a useless stat. Our hitters have enough to think about, why pile it on with useless stats? Sometimes, especially when in a slump, it's best to keep it simple. Like Barry said, when he wasn't hitting particularly well he would think about just catching the ball with the bat.

[sfgdood]

Exit velocity only confirms what we can already see...a ball hit hard or not hard. Basically it's useless. It's not really even a stat...it's a measure like HR distance. We already know a ball cleared the fence by a lot or a little. It's a fun measure for TV talk but useless in terms of players use.

[rog]

When i listened to the ESPN broadcast, Alex Rodriguez agreed with Barry Bonds that exit velocity was a useless stat.


Rog -- Overall I thought Alex was generally positive about analytics, although I also wonder if these guys aren't being pushed in that direction by their networks and because analytics are now the cool thing.

And for Bonds and Rodriguez, exit velocity probably was a useless stat. They didn't need to worry about doing much improving. And if they did, they had chemicals for that (ouch).

But exit velocity is important because increasing it even one mph can make a significant difference in how far a ball travels, and occasionally in whether the ball gets through for a hit. A batter can tell how much an adjustment is helping by seeing how much it increases his average velocity speed -- especially in the upper range.

And launch angle becomes important because slight differences in loft can make the difference between a ball in the park and one out of it.

It was interesting that no one commented when I mentioned that keeping the bat in the "hitting zone" the longest actually involves a slightly elevated swing rather than a level one as is usually depicted. The reason? The pitch is dropping, so the hitting zone is slightly higher at the front of the plate than at the back of it. A swing that stays in the hitting zone the longest is a swing that mirrors the planes of the ball. In otherwords, a slightly elevated swing.

So the slightly elevated swing can not only provide more distance on hits, it surprisingly can be in the hitting zone the longest.

There really is no magic in exit velocity and launch angle. It's just another way of saying hit the ball hard and if you want it to carry farther, swing with a slight uppercut (although Alex disagreed with that, and to some extent we can tell why). As he said, hitting slightly down on the ball can create backspin. It can also, however, result in hitting the ball downward, as the swing would suggest.

The intriguing aspect is that when a batter hits down on the ball (I believe Alex called it chopping wood or some such), he needs to be slightly under it to generate backspin and hit the ball in the proper launch angle. Because the bat is headed slightly upward and is in the hitting zone longer, the ball can be hit on the money and still rise at the proper angle.

Anyway, the popularity of exit speed and lanch was most effective because it helped batters examine the results of their swings and how that result might be changed a bit with a slight uppercut. In a way, it's like putting the velocity of a pitch on the scoreboard (which pitchers do sometimes pay attention to). A pitcher can tell if he's throwing the vall hard or not, but he can't tell as precisely HOW hard he's throwing without the radar gun (which is why the pitchers sometimes peak).

It can also tell him if his mechanics are slipping. If his velocity decreases, he's either getting tired or his mechanics are slightly out of whack.

It is intruiging though that the use of analytics has spread from management to the dugout to the field.

Now, a criticism of analytics for say a hitter is that his mind needs to be clear when he hits, lets he get hung up mentally and have it affect his swing. But if he constantly practices the proper principles, they become ingrained, and he doesn't need to think about them as much.

By the way, I've always liked Barry's concept of "catching" the ball with the bat." And we notice hitters making the motion of a swing in between pitches, sometimes almost not using the bat, to help them keep their muscle memory set on a compact swing. Or in a sense, "catching" the ball with the bat. In a sense.

Analytics have helped just about every job or position in baseball have a fresh and more accurate way of examining situations. In a way, for a hitter, it's just an aid to taking constant batting practice so muscle memory will be in place without even thinking about it.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4390/randys-benefit#ixzz5BpWsgqxP

[rog]

It's a fun measure for TV talk but useless in terms of players use.


Rog -- Which makes us wonder why the players are using it more and more. Hopefully the previous post helped slightly in that regard.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4390/randys-benefit?page=1#ixzz5Bpd0CLz9

[garyd4sf]

The game yesterday was the first time this regular season that I saw swings like I saw in Spring Training. Did it have to do with Hernandez' pitching?

But as I said before the Giants new batting coaches have some hitting credentials. And we did pick up some possible 60 HR possibility in the three acquired. Just like the 3 pointer is the vogue in Basketball , the 3 run HR is that in baseball, like that old crew cut Baltimore Orioles HC Earl Weaver always wanted.

[sfgdood]

Good old Earl Weaver. I used to love to watch him get right up in the umpire's grill. I actually once dated a niece of his...she did have Earl's feistiness but her dad, Earl's brother, was pretty mellow.

[Islandboagie]

Rog -- Overall I thought Alex was generally positive about analytics, although I also wonder if these guys aren't being pushed in that direction by their networks and because analytics are now the cool thing.

Boagie- They're being pushed in that direction because MLB wants to be a more betting-friendly sport. They know there's money out there they haven't tapped into yet like football and basketball have.

[rog]

The best way to manage a team depends in part on the makeup of the team. That said, Earl had the right idea for most teams.

Baseball has (virtually) no time limits. What it does have is outs. And out is close to 4% of the "time" a team has to score. Giving one up to sacrifice or to move a runner over would be kind of like telling an NBA team, "We'll give you one point, but any points you score the next two minutes won't count."

There are exceptions, of course. A pitcher is almost certain to make an out anyway, so why not get a base advancement out of it? Home plate is by far the most valuable base, so giving up an out to get a runner home usually makes sense.

But the concept that being good at small ball makes a team good is false. Did you know that the Giants led the majors in manufactured runs last season? (Well, yeah you did know if you pay attention here.) Did their offense a lot of good, didn't it?

If managers thought of outs as "time lost" in a game, perhaps they would treat those outs with more respect. Again, if you were an NBA team, would you give up two minutes of the game? If you were a NFL team, would you give up one possession every couple of games to advance the ball say 15 yards? If you were a NHL team, would you give the other team an extra power play?

Those are more or less examples of the "time lost" when an out is sacrificed.

Let's put this on a more personal level. Would we give up 4% raise for a bonus of 2%? There are times (such as the ninth inning) where it would make sense. But wouldn't we usually rather have a 4% raise that kept on giving year after year than a 2% bonus?

Teams should ask themselves, what are we getting by giving up 4% of the game? Once in a while the answer is sufficient. Most of the time it isn't.

Another example: If someone told you that you have just enough gas to get to your destination 180 miles down the road and there were no gas stations, would you drive extra fast so you could reach your destination more "quickly," only to find out you were still five miles away when you ran out of gas?

How are your hitchhiking skills?

Or would you take a quick five yards in a 100 yard dash in exchange for having to crawl the last four years?

We can argue whether these examples are fair or not, but the point is that giving up 4% of a game doesn't make sense unless the return is pretty significant. Teams that give up 4% of the game at one time have a good chance of winding up like the 2017 Giants -- leading the majors in manufactured runs but finishing next to last in total runs scored doesn't really help a team's offense much, does it?

The good news is that teams sacrifice 92% less often than they did a century ago. Clearly they've learned a few things.

Earl Weaver wasn't right all the time. But he was right most of the time, and he was right more than almost any other manager. That's probably part of the reason he's in the Hall of Fame.

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