sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 23, 2018 19:39:34 GMT -5
So Boly was right...the season is done like dinner. That's because I was horribly wrong about Bumgarner's injury being nothing at all. We already had two green assed rooks in the rotation...now we lose our ace. It's all over but the crying. It's time to sell the farm and start all over again.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 23, 2018 21:39:22 GMT -5
I freaking HATE being right sometimes.
I just had a bad, BAD feeling from the start.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 23, 2018 21:42:30 GMT -5
I'm desperately looking for some silver lining in this cloud, and this is the best I could do.
And it's really not a bad silver lining, as disasters go.
1-It happened BEFORE the season began, not DURING, or worse, in the 2nd half, down the stretch.
2-This will put the kids on the spot EARLY and help them develop the toughness required to pitch in the play offs when it really counts.
3-It'll give either Beede, or Suarez, or both, some time EARLY in the season, to face big league hitters BEFORE they lock in.
4-It 'could' give Holland the incentive he needs to do what he did at the beginning of last year; start fast and well.
boly
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 23, 2018 22:22:45 GMT -5
There's no longer any reason to keep Duggar down. Put Pence on the trading block, Belt and Panda too, maybe even Cueto and Cutch...see how many top prospects we can get to retool our weaponry and drop some salary so we can pick up some FA pitchers in the offseason. Give playing time to youngsters like Duggar and Shaw and Williamson...maybe even call up the kid Ramos and throw him into the fire. Let's see what we have. We'll need to ACTUALLY hit the International market hard...not just talk about it. We have to have an all available options mentality and not be afraid to spend what it takes
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 24, 2018 9:34:47 GMT -5
I don't agree, Randy. That's a rash, reactionary move, and it's way too early to do that.
Bum will miss April and some of May.
But he's back for June, July, August and September; the stretch run and then some.
We need to stay close in the meantime, and likely we can do that.
boly
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 24, 2018 12:07:24 GMT -5
It's a broken finger on his pitching hand, Boly...you know as well as I do that's two months just to heal...and at least another month to get in pitching shape. By that time we're dead and buried.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 24, 2018 15:49:12 GMT -5
I understand. In fact, I have already pointed that out to my wife who thought he'd be back pitching in 4-6 weeks.
He won't be.
It'll be ST all over again for him, building up arm strength and release point consistency.
I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet.
As I said, it's early.
LA is without their big gun, Turner. Who knows what else will happen in our division.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 24, 2018 15:52:28 GMT -5
Turner is their big gun now? What happened to Seger Bellinger and Pederson?
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 24, 2018 15:57:38 GMT -5
Boly you were throwing in the towel BEFORE the Bumgarner injury. Oh more bad news now...Samardzija is out for 3-5 weeks. A fast start was needed but that ship has sailed now. Cueto is the only reliable starter we have to start the season.
It's gonna get ugly well before we get Bum back. Time to cut bait and rebuild. The championship window is not only closed, it is locked, barred and boarded up.
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Post by klaiggeb on Mar 24, 2018 19:40:49 GMT -5
I never said I was throwing in the towel.
What I said was, I didn't see much hope. And if I didn't say it in those exact words, that's what I was implying.
I was whining about our pitching; about so many question marks in the rotation.
Then Stratton pitched and pitched well, and my hopes were buoyed. Probably foolishly, but they were buoyed all the same.
I didn't like our chances to begin with.
I like them even less now.
But I have to be honest and fair; the season hasn't even yet started.
Now IF Cueto sucks eggs in his first couple of starts.
And IF Blach is throwing tee ball location pitches.
And IF Stratton isn't what I think he is.
And IF... Well, there are too many "if's."
I'm not throwing in the towel just yet.
This team should score a lot of runs, and if they do... maybe we can bang our way around and keep it close until the end of May.
That 2010 team...We weren't even sure they'd MAKE the playoffs at the break.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that this INCREDIBLE run of INCREDIBLY BAD LUCK (since the break during the 2016 season) is over, then.... who knows.
But I'm not about to support a 'let's blow it up and start over,' when it hasn't even begun.
Now come mid April... I may be singing a different tune.
Who knows.
Maybe Holland, or someone else out there, will be our next "Jake Peavy."
Wouldn't THAT be something.
We'll see.
boly
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Game Over
Mar 24, 2018 20:16:35 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 24, 2018 20:16:35 GMT -5
Samardjiza is no loss, any one of our young guys can step up and be mediocre.
Bumgarner is obviously a loss, but if one pitcher going down is reason to say the season is over, then we weren't going to be very good anyways.
Our pitchers are not going to save us, they will be mediocre at best. It's the hitters that will have to knock the shit out of the ball for 2-3 months for us to be competitive. And it can't stop there, our hitters will have to continue to hit, because outside of Bumgarner and hopefully Cueto, nobody on our pitching staff gives us an edge against any team in baseball.
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 24, 2018 20:52:45 GMT -5
This was going to be the last season of our championship window anyway. Now without Bumgarner that is over, so we might as well start early. We're going to be sellers come late July. McCutcheon and Pence will surely bring some good young talent, maybe Belt and Cueto too. This season should be used for open auditions and evaluations of our top prospects because making the playoffs is a lost cause. I mean this is what should happen but of course it wont because the team has to keep up the illusion of still being relevant.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 20:53:34 GMT -5
Until April 10th I would go with the four starters who were expected to be on the roster. That would give Beede and Suarez a couple of starts for the River Cats to battle for the final slot. I would be quite surprised though if it isn't Beede. I don't think Suarez is even on the 40 man roster.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 20:59:56 GMT -5
There's no longer any reason to keep Duggar down. Rog -- I can think of two. First, he doesn't look quite ready. He has struck out 15 times in 49 at bats this spring. Against mixed pitching in thin air that limits the movement on pitches, I think that's a concern. Second, and more importantly to the Giants, by keeing him down for a couple of weeks, they'll gain an extra year of his services. If they keep him down for a couple of months, they'll delay his arbitration for a year. We know what a great player Kris Bryant is. When he was a rookie, he was sent down for the first couple of weeks so the Cubs could get an extra season from him. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4356/game-over?page=1#ixzz5AinTASdF
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:03:32 GMT -5
Samardjiza is no loss, any one of our young guys can step up and be mediocre. Rog -- No, Boagie, they can't. Not that it might not work out that way, but it is far more likely the pitcher would have an ERA at least a run higher than Jeff. You keep talking without identifying them about the things about baseball I don't know, but I do know that the average level of a replacement pitcher is very low. You under-appreciate Jeff, and you overrate replacement pitchers. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4356/game-over?page=1#ixzz5Aip0zWk9
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:06:01 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:07:09 GMT -5
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sfgdood
Long time member
stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 24, 2018 21:08:04 GMT -5
I don't like the second argument...That sounds to me like you don't think he'll amount to much or you wouldn't need to hedge your bet. It's a defeatist attitude. Just put him in there like Durocher did with Mays and when the time comes give him a contract he deserves.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:08:55 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:13:29 GMT -5
This was going to be the last season of our championship window anyway. Rog -- I get your point, but here I have to disagree, Randy. The window is certainly closing, and it's closing at nearly a slam rate. But the Giants appear to be staying below the salary cap this season so they won't be so heavily penalized if they can sign one of the big boys over the winter. Yes, I would have rebuilt this winter. Because that would likely have cost them a fair amount of the fan base while the rebuild was going on, I understand why they went the direction they did. But as we're seeing now, the safety net had holes in it. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4356/game-over?page=1#ixzz5AirSnpoz
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:19:40 GMT -5
I don't like the second argument...That sounds to me like you don't think he'll amount to much or you wouldn't need to hedge your bet. It's a defeatist attitude. Just put him in there like Durocher did with Mays and when the time comes give him a contract he deserves. Rog -- You're out of touch on this one, Randy. First, the Giants had control of Willie as long as they wanted to. The Reserve Clause was still in effect. The rules are different now. Kris Bryant -- a future Hall of Famer -- was kept down, and the same thing is happening to other top prospects this spring. Second, the Giants sent Willie to AAA for a month and a half or so. He made a fair argument that he was ready by hitting .477 for Minneapolis. Duggar is one of the few high minors prospects I think will succeed. But he isn't going to come close to Willie. Who has? If Steve could become Brett Butler I'd be flabbergasted. At some point reality -- and the service time rules of MLB -- have to come into play. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4356/game-over?page=1#ixzz5AisiwKRz
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:23:45 GMT -5
By the way, the Giants took the prudent approach with Tim Lincecum. You don't think he was ready? He gave up all of one earned run in his five starts for Fresno to open the 2007 season. The Giants kept him down until Russ Ortiz became injured, opening up a clear spot in the rotation. If the Giants had kept Tim down another week or ten days, he would have reached arbitration a year later, saving them something in eight figures.
But they did postpone his free agency for a year.
By the way, notice how Willie dominated AAA and Tim did the same? They were much better than Steve. I like him. He could become a first division center fielder and probably will IMO. But he's nowhere near the prospect Tim or especially Willie were.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
Posts: 90
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Post by sfgdood on Mar 24, 2018 21:25:40 GMT -5
This was going to be the last season of our championship window anyway.
Rog -- I get your point, but here I have to disagree, Randy. The window is certainly closing, and it's closing at nearly a slam rate. But the Giants appear to be staying below the salary cap this season so they won't be so heavily penalized if they can sign one of the big boys over the winter.
Dood - to what end? It would just be putting up a false front. We've been passed by and we need to stop using scotch tape to patch up huge holes...we need to start from scratch and build a new solid foundation before we lose all our good trading chips. The Bumgarner injury gives us a good excuse to start sooner rather than later.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:43:43 GMT -5
Let's suppose the Giants re-signed McCutchen and signed Clayton Kershaw. They'll have some money to spend, with the contracts of McCutchen and Pence coming off the books. There are a lot of raises already in place, but I think they'll be willing to break through the cap -- just as they were willing to do so if they could have finished the trade for Giancarlo Stanton this winter.
Now, let's suppose Chris Shaw comes on and can take over for Brandon Belt at first base. Unless Brandon has a bad year, he should be tradeable with what isn't a hugely expensive contract. He has some trade protection, but it's not full protection. He might work out nicely in the AL, since he could play first for the combined defense and bat, while someone else who would play first base poorly could be the designated hitter.
There might be a lot of money to spend, and the timing will be very good. The top guys will be very expensive, but there may be decent free agents available at bargain prices as was the case this year. Some decent players are signing one-year contracts.
I'm not saying it will be easy. Remember, like you, I favored rebuilding. But the Giants did a nice job this winter -- a very nice job when one considers how little money they had to work with. They might be able to pull some magic out the next couple of winters too. By then, the high draft picks from 2017 and 2018 will hopefully be ready to contribute.
I think right now there is more hope for 2019 than for 2018.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:45:27 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 24, 2018 21:51:01 GMT -5
The guy pitching for the Giants against the River Cats tonight is one of the two pitchers the Giants acquired for Eduardo Nunez. He is a former college closer who is good enough that both his former club and the Giants have used him asd a starter.
He didn't have it tonight though.
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Game Over
Mar 25, 2018 10:19:05 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 25, 2018 10:19:05 GMT -5
Rog -- No, Boagie, they can't. Not that it might not work out that way, but it is far more likely the pitcher would have an ERA at least a run higher than Jeff.
Boagie- We've been through this before. Recently, when our replacement pitchers have been asked to start games when someone goes down or is completely inaffective, they've done reasonably well.
Stratton had a 2.98 ERA in starts in 2017.
Suarez had a 4.28 ERA in starts in 2016.
Heston had a 3.95 ERA in starts in 2015.
All lower than Jeff Samardjiza.
Stratton and Heston also had a better winning percentage in those seasons than Samardjiza had last year, or the year before...or in his entire career.
I realize one of your starters going down with an injury isn't good. Samardjiza does log a lot of innings, which is a nice thing to have in your rotation. But Jeff going down is fixable. The only thing that makes Jeff's injury hurt us considerably is the fact that Bumgarner is now out for a few months. That stretches our pitching depth very thin.
Which brings me back to my original point of saying Samardjiza isn't a #3 pitcher...the post I made that started all this arguing about Samardjiza. I said that the Giants would have been smart to have acquired a frontline starter to put in the 2 or 3 spot in the rotation to give us more pitching depth, and knock Samardjiza back to the 4th spot.
Is that so crazy now?
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 26, 2018 2:21:22 GMT -5
Yeah, it is, Boagie.
I agree completely that those guys pitched exceptionally well for replacement-level pitchers. But that doesn't change the fact that the AVERAGE replacement pitcher has an ERA about a run higher than Jeff's was last season.
Let's look at those guys one by one.
Stratton may be a real major league pitcher. By the end of this season we should have a decent idea.
We know how Suarez is. The Giants got lucky with him, yet they realized that he isn't truly a good pitcher, and they didn't bother to protect him in the Rule V draft.
They got lucky with Heston too. Heck, Chris even through a no-hitter. But since that season, his ERA has been 13.91. Thirteen point ninety-one. Got that? He's back with the Giants now on a minor league contract, hoping to resurrect his career.
Boly says that statistics lie. I say that they don't lie (which they don't), but that they can easily be misinterpreted (which they are being so here).
You're taking a small sample and pretending things would work out that way in the long run.
Back in 1995, weak-hitting shortstop set a record for hitting, getting 14 hits in three games. This despite hitting for a career average of .229. Using your logic, we could have looked at Mike and said, "See. A replacement player IS a better hitter than Willie Mays."
I've seen the average ERA for a replacement pitcher, and it's far over five. You're looking at three replacment pitchers. I'm looking at all the replacement pitchers over a full season.
Which one of us is more likely to present an accurate overall picture?
So, yeah, what you're saying is crazy. Worse, it's wrong.
The STATS aren't wrong. It's just that your sample is incredibly small.
Let's call it a Mike Benjamin sample. (It is much larger than Mike's three games, but not nearly large enough to have true meaning in the overall.)
Your stats are right on the money. They're telling the truth. It's just that you aren't interpreting them correctly when it comes to the whole picture.
If you're going to try to prove an overall concept, it is far better to use big samples than small ones. Small samples are small in usefulness.
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Game Over
Mar 26, 2018 9:49:03 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Mar 26, 2018 9:49:03 GMT -5
Rog- Your stats are right on the money. They're telling the truth. It's just that you aren't interpreting them correctly when it comes to the whole picture.
If you're going to try to prove an overall concept, it is far better to use big samples than small ones. Small samples are small in usefulness.
Boagie- replacement pitchers can't be broken down into an overall concept, each one is different than the next. The concept that should be considered is Bochy and Sabean's (and the scouts) ability to find the pitchers who can be those replacement. I'm banking on those guys to do what they are pretty good at, not the pitchers themselves.
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rog
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Post by rog on Mar 26, 2018 21:37:29 GMT -5
Boagie- replacement pitchers can't be broken down into an overall concept, each one is different than the next. Rog -- Not only that, they're different from year to year. Chris Heston was a marvelous surprise. He pitched FAR better than they expected. They could just as easily have gotten the Heston who since 2015 has struggled unsuccessfully to stay in the majors. When one talks about a replacement level pitcher, he's talking about the average of all the replacement pitchers. A team can get lucky with such a pitcher, and then it can just as easily get unlucky. You're using a few pitchers as an example. There is no question a replacment pitcher or even pitchers can be good -- at least for a while. But it is just as likely they'll be horrible. Let's suppose the Giants bring up a replacement pitcher as their fifth starter. How well do you think that pitcher would do? My guess is it would be Tyler Beede, and he's really been struggling. He might come up and be lights out for a while -- or he might simply get knocked out time after time. Let's see how Holland performs. He's more or less a replacement-level pitcher. Maybe a little above, since he's had some success already at the major league level. You're looking at far too narrow a sample, Boagie, which can easily lead to the wrong conclusion. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4356/game-over#ixzz5AubuoCwJ
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