Bad Base Runners Bat 3rd (and Higher)

[rog]

Looking at something else, I came across the Base Runs ranking by Fan Graphs.  Three of the 10 worst batted primarily 3rd in the order.  Two others batted a lot of 2nd.

I think we all agree that Andrew McCutchen, not Buster Posey, should bat third for the Giants.  But we should get it out of our minds that being a bad base runner automatically disqualifies a hitter from batting 3rd.  By doing so, we're saying that a lot of major league managers don't know what they're doing.

[Islandboagie]

If you do believe Mccutchen should bat ahead of Posey, why argue with Boly for days, if not weeks, about Posey batting 3rd?

[rog]

If you go back and look, Boagie, you'll realize I have agreed with him on McCutchen virtually all the way. The point I'm trying to make is a philosophical one -- that just because a player is a bad base runner, he shouldn't automatically be eliminated from the third spot.

I've given so many examples both past and present that I don't see how the point can be argued realistically.

If two guys are equal in other areas, by all means bat the faster guy first. Same with lead off. Same with the #2 spot.

The lineup may well be Panik, Belt, McCutchen, Longoria (not fast, but a surprisingly good base runner), Pence, Crawford and Jackson/Blanco. Duggar likely bats eighth too when he gets called back up, with the hope that he'll show he can lead off.

[rog]

Randy made a point that it particularly irks him that Brandon Belt doesn't hit more home runs, given that the ball is wound tighter and home runs are up dramatically. I think that ignores two points though:

. Brandon was on pace to hit over 25 homers before being injured last season.

. He's still playing at AT&T Park, and even with the more tightly wound ball, that location is very challenging for a left-handed power hitter.

As a related aside, I suspect the Giants would LOVE to be able to sign Bryce Harper a year from now. I think they're ready to go well over the salary cap next season, and that is why they are so keen on staying under the cap now (although they would have sacrificed that position if they could instead have garnered a different superstar in Giancarlo Stanton). The problem with signing power hitters is that the Giants will likely have to overpay more than usual and will need to show they're a team to be reckoned with on the field.

This is heresy, but if he does become a free agent, maybe the guy the Giants sign should be Clayton Kershaw. I would feel more strongly about it if not for his back issues. But the point is that as we've said all along, the strategy should be to develop position players (or pitchers who can be traded for them), particularly power hitters. Then the Giants can use free agency primarily for pitchers, who are far more likely to appreciate AT&T.

AT&T is arguably the most beautiful stadium in the world. But it plays strongly against the Giants when it comes to signing free agent power hitters -- especially those who bat left-handed.

[rog]

According to Fan Graphs, Joey Votto was the worst base runner in the majors last season. It was by far his worst season on the bags, but he hasn't been rated a positive base runner since 2010. As great a hitter as Joey is (probably the best pure hitter in the game), he has been a poor base runner. His fielding was also lousy in 2016, but he worked hard to bring it back last season.

If I were going to choose a hitter's approach to model, it would be Joey's.

Regarding where to bat a hitter, obviously it depends on many factors, one of which is how the hitter fits with the team's other hitters. But generally speaking:

#1 -- Best OBP guy. Nice if he's a base stealer. Doesn't need power.

#2 -- Next best OBP guy and often not a power hitter either.

#3 -- Best hitter.

#4 -- Best power hitter

#5 -- Next best power hitter

#6 -- Next best hitter

#7 -- Next best hitter still left

#8 -- Hopefully he can hit better than the pitcher

[rog]

Just for fun, I went back to 1962 to see who the best base runners were, based on Base Runs. Not surprisingly, Maury Wills was the runaway winner. The worst runner was a surprise though: Bill Virdon. The Giants' best was of course Willie Mays, and their worst was Harvey Kuenn.

[rog]

Last season the best base runner as measured by Base Runs was Byron Buxton. The worst, as mentioned, was Joey Votto. The Giants' best was Hunter Pence, and their worst was, surprisingly, Joe Panik.

I don't know if this is surprising or not, but only 11 base runners were as much as five full runs above average, and only 14 were as much as five full runs below average. The difference between Pence and Panik was five runs. At just under two runs to the negative, Buster Posey was just behind Joe on the downside. Hunter was the only Giants qualifier who finished as a plus runner. If we include non-qualifiers, Gorkys Hernandez was the best Giants base runner.