Swings Part III

[klaiggeb]

Watched Sunday's game.

Much better at bats by pretty much the entire team.

Those who haven't played much, of course their swings are a little shaky.

I was impressed by Jackson, in particular, and also Pablo's swings in the game.

Kelby had an unusually bad afternoon, but that happens.

And though it's not the subject of this thread, I was impressed with Snetken(sp?)Snetnker? what ever his name was.

LH reliever.

Great change up!

boly

[rog]

Here's a thought that is a bit counter-intuitive, or at least different than we've long believed.

It is often said that a good contact hitter's bat stays in the hitting area for a long time, that his swing is level. In reality, if the bat stays in the hitting area for a long time, the swing has a slight uppercut to it. That is the swing that most closely fits with the flight of the ball.

To see it clearly, draw from the side the height of the ball between the pitcher and home plate. It's a downward sloping arc. Since the ball is higher the closer it is to the pitcher, a slight uppercut swing keeps the bat in the hitting zone longer than a flat swing.

That's not to say that a flat swing is wrong. It's merely to say that a slight uppercut keeps the bat in the hitting area longer.

[rog]

I was impressed with Snetken(sp?)Snetnker? what ever his name was.


Rog -- It's D.J. Snelten. He's the guy we've been talking about since October, pointing out that while he's not a big strikeout pitcher (for a reliever), he's a big ground ball pitcher, and comparing him in that way to Jeremy Affeldt. It has happened in the minors, not the majors, but thus far in his career Snelten has thrown about 10% more ground balls than Affeldt did, and Jeremy was significantly a ground ball inducer.

Snelten is out of the University of Minnesota, and put up ERA's of 3.24 and 2.15 as a starter in his sophomore and junior seasons. He began his minor league career as a starter but was switched to relief during the 2016 season, becoming far more effective. IMO he projects as a pretty decent LOOGY.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4338/swings-iii?page=1#ixzz59cAssEvq

[klaiggeb]

Very funky delivery, which cause deception in the eye of the hitter.

From what I saw, outstanding change up.

And as I recall, Trevor Hoffman had a pretty good career with a great change after his 95+ heater left him.

But the just reassigned him.

I don't understand that.

[rog]

I'm surprised that D.J. got reassigned as well, Boly, although sometimes options or other considerations affect it. Perhaps there is something in particular they want him to work on and he can get more of a chance to do so in the minors. I'm pretty sure we'll see him at some point this season, and I thought he would at the very least form a bridge until the return of Will Smith.

Another possibility is that they consider him a LOOGY, and this early in the season they feel they need an arm that can be used more broadlly. Maybe they're going to go with "only" a dozen pitchers early in the season.

On the other hand, they have five days off in the first 36 days of the season, so less pitching should be needed. Could it be that the Giants are, horror of horrors, going to go with "just" 11 pitchers early on so they can evaluate more bench players?

One tactic that teams use is to have their final bullpen spot be manned by a rotating group of minor leaguers pitchers, keeping that spot fresh. In particular, a long reliever can be replaced after a long stint in order to free up more availability.

[klaiggeb]

My thought is similar to yours; he needs more innings.

[rog]

I would think that D.J.'s being sent down pretty much guarantees Derek Holland a spot. Holland has given up three earned runs in 7.2 innings, striking out nine. He would be around as a reliever who could give the Giants a spot start or two. Given how poorly Tyler Beede and Andrew Suarez have performed this spring, Holland may well be the sixth starter at the moment.

[rog]

Here is a scouting report from SFGiants.com that backs up Boly's point that Snelten's best pitch is his change up and my comparison of D.J. to Jeremy Affeldt.


Snelten's best pitch is his changeup, which dives at the plate and works well against both left-handers and right-handers. He has added fastball velocity since working in shorter stints, now operating at 91-93 mph and peaking at 95 with run and sink. The movement on his fastball and changeup and the downhill plane he creates with his 6-foot-7 frame led to a 2.3 groundout/flyout ratio last year.

Snelten has done a better job of maintaining his arm slot as a reliever, allowing him to do a better job of staying on top of his average slider. He has good feel for pitching and some funk in his delivery that adds to his deception. The Giants think he can be more than a lefty specialist, with one club official saying Snelten reminds him of Jeremy Affeldt, a key reliever on their three World Series championship clubs this decade.


I think D.J. has some work to do to pitch against righties as well as left-handed hitters as Jeremy did, but his fine change up should help him in that regard. If he can improve his slider, he could be very tough to hit.

Who knows? Maybe the Giants are sending him to Sacramento to work on his slider. Sounds like a good idea. Would former southpaw Dave Righetti be available for such work?

[klaiggeb]

Hard to be "sold" on a guy after having seen only 1 outting.

But from what I 'saw' I would agree. He could be much more than a Loogy.

and it is the change up, mostly, IMHO, which makes that possibility so promising.

[rog]

I may not be as confident of you of D.J.'s ability to be more than a LOOGY, but I would work with him on pitching to right-handed hitters with the goal of getting him there. Meanwhile, I think he has the making of a good LOOGY at least.

[klaiggeb]

Agreed.

But that change up... that's the great neutralizer. A good change up works to either type of hitter.

[rog]

Since it is both off speed and moving away from a right-handed hitter, it should work even BETTER against righties than lefties. But if he's throwing a two-seam fastball, it may have similar movement, diminishing the effect. Maybe he needs to improve his breaking ball to keep right-handed hitters from leaning out over the plate. Or at least throw his fastball to the inside of the plate on occasion to accomplish the same thing.

[rog]

We talk about games played for a batter. We should also be talking about his games in terms of 27 outs made per game. If we look at total bases (including walks and HBP and perhaps SAC and SF) per 27 outs we get an idea of the player's productivity.

Another calculation we can make is to total bases the hitter advanced runners (including himself). That too can be divided by 27 outs to show productivity in advancing runners.

Runs scored and RBI's are important figures, but with the exception of home runs, they are team-dependent.

Here is an runs/RBI analogy I just thought of. It's like pitcher wins and saves.

If a batter hits a home run, he gets both the run and the RBI. Otherwise, he gets only the run or the RBI. The starter can get the win, and unless he pitches a complete game, a reliever can get the save. For pitchers, the guy in between the starter and the closer can earn a save. For hitters, the batter who contributes to the run by advancing the runner via hit or out -- but neither scores the run directly or drives it in) doesn't get any credit.

In basketball, hockey and soccer, they have assists. Baseball doesn't have them, even though in some cases the run wouldn't have scored without the assist.