Buying or selling Steven Duggar and Kyle Jensen

[rog]

No offense to the Giants' hitters the past two days, but they've had no offense.

Two hitters did distinguish themselves today even though the Giants managed just three hits.  Both Steven Duggar and Kyle Jensen hammered out solo home runs.  Duggar is now hitting .286 with two home runs, and Jensen is hitting .556 with four homers in just nine at bats.  Especially in the 29-year-old Jensen's case, those are impressive numbers.

So, while it's very early in spring training, are we buying or selling these two players?

Steven Duggar:  Not buying yet.  The two homers are unexpected, and we would certainly settle for a .286 average from Steven this season, but there are warning signs in the desert sky.  Most worrisome is that Duggar has struck out a discouraging 6 times in his 14 at bats.  He'll be luck to hit over .200 if he keeps doing that.

In addition, he has only one walk, and as a potential lead off man, he must continue to be able to reach base even when he's slumping.  Steve does have good speed, and in the Arizona Fall League he began to steal bases effectively.  This spring though, he's been thrown out in his only attempt.

So while I'd love to be able to buy Duggar about as much as any development this spring, the signs have been more negative than positive despite the unexpected power.


Kyle Jensen:  Selling.  Kyle came from St. Mary's High in Stockton via St. Mary's College, so he's definitely a local boy.  He's 29, and a year ago he decided to try playing in Japan.  Not sure the reason, but his Japanese career was aborted after just a dozen at bats.

Counter to Duggar, his strikeouts and walks are nearly as outstanding as his four homers.  He has walked  5 times and struck out just twice.  He's reached base a phenomenal 10 times in 14 plate appearances.  He's driven in 8 runs in 9 at bats.  What's not to like?

So far this spring, nothing.  And there's a lot to get excited about.  But the guy is 29 and has had a rather bland minor league career plus 31 mostly uneventful major league at bats.  He's probably this year's Chris Marrero.

I hope that in two weeks I'll be buying.  He's still got plenty of time to sway me, and if he keeps playing at the same unbelievable level as he's played so far this spring, he'll no doubt do so.  But that's the problem:  It's been unbelievable.

As with Duggar though, stay tuned.  Despite Jensen's fabulous start, Duggar still has the better shot.  But not if he keeps striking out 40% of the time.

I didn't comment on it, but a very nice outing by Chris Stratton last night.  I was down on him until I read that he had suddenly become a "pitcher" last season.  His stuff isn't good enough for him to pitch well every time out, but if he has truly learned the fine art, he has enough stuff to be successful if he puts the ball where he wants it and puts it there with a plan.  And man, do the Giants need him!

[Islandboagie]

Another guy who is off to a good start this spring is Williamson.

There's a lot of competition for the backup outfield spots right now, it will be interesting to see what happens over the next month.

[klaiggeb]

I was just going to post about Mac.

Seems he made a change to his swing, and the results have been immediately effective.

I watched him hit one out against the Angels the other day... dead CF.

Flat out plastered it.


If he can sustain what he's doing, I couldn't help but wonder if he was going to force his way into the OF picture.

[klaiggeb]

I was VERY unimpressed with the at bats I saw during that Angel game.

Pathetic swings, for sure, but what concerned me some, and I realize, it's VERY early, was how much further ahead the Angel hitters were.

Our guys kept getting fooled by just about everything thrown.

A long way to go, for sure, but for the moment, Bochy can't be happy.

boly

[rog]

Good point about Mac. He's a long shot to make it, but he clearly has a shot.

If Duggar could take over center field, and he likely will at some point this year, the eight players wouldn't look too bad. Nice length to the lineup, and nice depth with perhaps Jackson, Blanco, Tomlinson and Hundley.

If Belt is healthy and the new guys hit, the offense should be much, much improved. Stratton could help the rotation, as could Blach if he can get right-handed hitters out.

Bleacher Report recently picked the Giants for the final Wild Card spot. At least they appear to be in it to ... Wild Card it.

[sfgdood]

it's absolutely ludicrous to on March 2, to be crying about the performance of the team. As a famous basketball player once said..."you're talking about PRACTICE here." All we should really be caring about right now is the overall health of the team and that everybody is getting their work in every day. The only time individual and team performance is concerning is the final week before the season begins. Even then it isn't as concerning as injuries would be. Every time I see people whining (or bragging) about performance in early March, I can only laugh at how little that person understands about the game.

[klaiggeb]

I'm not crying about performance, Randy, merely commenting as to how far behind our hitters look.

Heck, as I said multiple times in my post, it's early; I get that.

Still, many of the players have had 15 + at bats and their swings should be better.

But then, that's an intolerant, ex coach speaking.

[rog]

t's absolutely ludicrous to on March 2, to be crying about the performance of the team.


Rog -- I agree, but Boly did say "I realize, it's VERY early."

Here's what Boly's comments prompted me to think: Not much before that, I had been thinking the converse. It seemed like the hitters were hitting, but the pitchers couldn't get anyone out.

Makes me wonder about the ebb and flow of the game with questions such as:

. Is it bad hitting on out parts, or good pitching on theirs?

. How big a part does luck play?

. Is a slump contagious?

. If a team isn't hitting, is it the hitting coach's fault or the fault of the players?

. Why do players go into slumps, and why does it sometimes seem like they can't get out of them?

. With all the video available, why don't the players immediately see what they're doing differently?

. How does the mistake become so ingrained that it is so hard to shake?

. Is the change instantaneous or does it come on gradually?

. If the mistake comes on gradually, why don't the player and hitting coach see it coming and head it off before it becomes a habit?


I guess if players and teams knew the answers to these questions, slumped would be very short-lived, if they occurred at all. And clearly it isn't that easy.

I think the question that most concerns me is the last one. Why aren't hitting coaches and the hitters themselves proactive in cutting off a problem almost before it happens? I could be wrong here -- and correct me if I am -- but I've got to think that there should be tell-tale signs that a mechanic is gradually changing.

I mean, stuff can be measured to a fraction of an inch. And there is video available of every at bat. Does a mechanic suddenly change, or does it develop slowly enough that it could be caught before it reaches the critical stage?

Same thing with pitchers?

Is there enough technology and knowledge available today to help avoid slumps? Teams seem to have at least three hitting coaches and two pitching coaches these days, and I would assume they would hire more if it could indeed help them cut off slumps.

Isn't the key to catch a change before it becomes ingrained?

Or perhaps I just don't know what I'm talking about. I have a suspicion a little of each is true.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4328/buying-selling-steven-duggar-jensen#ixzz58hYvBSry

[klaiggeb]

Rogers wonderings:

Is it bad hitting on out parts, or good pitching on theirs?

. How big a part does luck play?

. Is a slump contagious?

. If a team isn't hitting, is it the hitting coach's fault or the fault of the players?

. Why do players go into slumps, and why does it sometimes seem like they can't get out of them?

. With all the video available, why don't the players immediately see what they're doing differently?

. How does the mistake become so ingrained that it is so hard to shake?

. Is the change instantaneous or does it come on gradually?

. If the mistake comes on gradually, why don't the player and hitting coach see it coming and head it off before it becomes a habit?

***boly's responses:****

I can answer some of these, Rog, but please remember, my responses are based upon my experience.

1-Luck plays a HUGE part! Huge! Bloops that drop in, lined shots that are caught. IMHO, it NEVER evens out. More hard hit balls go for outs than bloops fall in.

2-A tougher question, but I'd be inclined to say, 'yes.' And here's why. Even though each team has hitting coaches, players are friends, for the most part, and they watch each other. Often times bad habits are 'seen' by a teammate who offers a suggestion to help, while at the same time, unconsciously doing what they see their slumping teammate do.

How can I say this? I've had the same problem for decades on the golf course. When my friend is struggling, I watch closely trying to provide a tip or two to help with their swing.

More times than not my OWN game suddenly begins to suffer.

To stop this from happening, I no longer watch a swing UNLESS I'm asked to.

3-It's likely never the coach's fault. Hitters sometimes fall into bad habits, and bad habits are a bitch to break.

4-Bad habits are hard to change; consider the most common typing mistake; T...H...E. Once or twice the typist hits "H" "T" "E"... and suddenly, they are always typing HTE, instead of THE.

Been there too many times.

My particular one is EDN, instead of END.

5-Seeing what's wrong and being able to FIX what's wrong do not necessarily go hand-in-hand.

I KNOW my golf swing.

On the course, if I'm suddenly slicing the ball, or hooking the ball I can 'FEEL' what's wrong, and I KNOW how to fix it.

Prior to the swing, I remind myself what to do.

Then the swing starts... and the hands and/or shoulders/hips/lower body do what they darned well please.

Result?

Same crap.

It just takes time to make the adjustments.

Thus, IMHO, no slump ends until it's ready to end no matter how much a player (golfer) works at it.

6-Mistakes BECOME ingrained. They are part of "muscle memory."

And once the muscles 'remember,' it's a bitch to get them to UN remember.

7-I believe the screw ups come on gradually. Unconsciously a player begins doing something he is not aware that he's doing. Before he knows it; CRAP IN A HAND BASKET! He's in a slump and doesn't know why.

Based upon my experiences as a player and coach, those are my observations and opinions, Rog. Hope they help.

boly

[sfgdood]

or...how about we wait till the season actually begins before making these kinds of judgments...it's freakin MARCH THE THIRD for chrissake!

[Islandboagie]

I tend to agree with Randy. The only thing that should draw concern during the first half of spring training should be injuries.

[sfgdood]

I can't ever remember Spring Training numbers on the back of a bubble gum card...or used in an arbitration brief.

[klaiggeb]

Remember, I'm not looking for numbers. I'm looking for good at bats, not even hits.

Just good at bats.

[Islandboagie]

Well you should be pleased with today, so far 4 Giants have gone deep.

[sfgdood]

if they are having good at bats on Opening Day, who's going to vive a ratatouille how many poor at bats they are having this week?

[sfgdood]

and by the same token, would you rather they have good at bats now or when they really matter?

[Islandboagie]

I think Boly understands. We have the same conversation every spring about how the games don't matter, we've been around long enough to know that. Boly was just pointing out some observations.

One thing to think about though, next time you say it doesn't matter, consider what Championship teams say about spring training after the season is over. Don't they usually credit the work they do in spring training as a significant reason for that success? Have you not heard the phrase or some sembalence of "it all started in spring training"?

[rog]

Thanks for the insights, Boly.

[sfgdood]

the work n ST matters...the results do not

[rog]

Of course the results of spring training at bats don't matter once the season starts, but given the choice, would we rather see the Giants hitting well now or hitting poorly? The natural answer would of course be that they're hitting well, that while it is the season's results, certainly not spring training's results that matter, we'd rather see them hitting well, hoping they can carry it into and through the season.

In keeping with our other discussion here though, perhaps at least in some cases it's better to get the problems to the surface now so that it can be ironed out over the next four weeks.

[sfgdood]

I always prefer players not be hot this early in ST...it's more likely they will not still be hot when the regular season opens

[klaiggeb]

Thank you, boagie, they were ONLY observations.

And I can't help doing that; it's part of my DNA...


ST is to work on stuff, and part of working on stuff is getting the swing in sync.


Longoria's HR yesterday, for example. Yeah, I liked the HR, but what I liked MOST was how he lead with the knob/pushed his hands through first, and then followed with the bat, the ball exploding off the bat the way a power guy should hit it.

Great, great technique!

Same with Duggar.

Neither of them had 'bouncing, active' hands during the set up, or the swing.

No big hitches, no wasted movement.



IF I'm Bochy, and boagie summed this up fairly well, I'm looking for 'hard work,' and 'focused-attitude' development.

And by the later I mean, getting yourself in the mental place where winning becomes an obsession.

I don't want to see that in game 1 of ST, I want it to slowly build as the season nears.



Last year with something like 5 or 6 ST games left, I watched the Giants commit stupid, careless base running blunders that TOLD me their heads were NOT in the game; that the were NOT focused, but rather, just going through the motions, already looking ahead to the season.

Not smart!

THAT should have alerted me that there was a problem.

I saw it... but blew it off because I didn't want to acknowledge what my eyes were seeing.


And I'm betting Bochy saw/thought the same thing.

boly

[sfgdood]

Ive never heard of or seen any big league player or manager obsessed with winning in ST. They pretty much all understand it is practice and that wins and losses do not begin to be important until after the cactus league ends.

[sfgdood]

it's definitely important to focus the hard work in ST--most of which we as fans will never see--so that the team is in regular season mode at just the right time. I believe that the revamped coaching staff will be pretty gung ho during workouts, but I also believe some fans tend to hyper-analyze what they see in ST games. I've seen teams and players look amazing in ST that totally flop during the real games...and I've seen the opposite where teams/players look completely flat in ST but are firing on all pistons when the season starts. This is particularly true on veteran laden teams that have leaders that understand the difference between preparing for the season and obsessing about wins and losses. Leaders with WS rings know this dynamic very well.

[rog]

I saw something the other day that had analyzed the correlation between spring training performance and the regular season, and there was a slight correlation. If nothing else, an injured player through spring training might well carry that into the season.

I was intrigued by the comment that it was better to be cold now so the team could get hot going into the regular season. That's pretty much the way I was seeing it too, but it's darn hard to know.

I would the think correlation later in the spring would mean more, but on the other hand, that could simply be players working out their problems so they will be ready for the season opener.

The slight correlation, but nothing to be too excited or worried about, seems realistic.

[sfgdood]

2012...the absolute WORST pitcher in all of the cactus league was Barry Zito...something like 45 baserunners in 19 innings. The Giants cancelled his last preseason start and put him in a Minor League camp. His first regular season start, he shuts out the Rocks in Coors and later becomes a postseason hero.

[rog]

Barry Zito...something like 45 baserunners in 19 innings.


Rog -- I want to give you some fantastic memory kudos, Randy. In 2012 spring training, exactly as you said, Barry Zito allowed 45 base runners in 19.1 innings. He allowed an unbelievable 32 hits for a .405 average and walked another dozen. The only thing he did will was limit opposing base stealers to one out of three and pick one runner off.

But, man, what a memory, Randy!

[rog]

On the other hand, Tim Lincecum gave up 31 hits in 23.2 innings and allowed a 5.70 ERA and 1.56 WHIP that were pretty good previews of his 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP to come in one of the most devastating downturns I can remember.

One thing I will say is that I'm glad Steven Duggar is hitting the heck out of the ball. Spring training is most important to players who are trying to make the team -- especially those with a legitimate shot. If Steven is good enough to start, the Giants' starting eight become reasonably complete. He's known for his fielding as well and made a nice (sort of) diving catch as well as his home run.

Austin Jackson and Gregor Blanco are fairly strong as fourth and fifth outfielders. I didn't realize it until I came across it yesterday, but Gregor stole 15 bases last season in his part-time role. Might have picked up a few as a pinch runner.

[Islandboagie]

Randy- 2012...the absolute WORST pitcher in all of the cactus league was Barry Zito...something like 45 baserunners in 19 innings. The Giants cancelled his last preseason start and put him in a Minor League camp. His first regular season start, he shuts out the Rocks in Coors and later becomes a postseason hero.

Boagie- I remember that. If I recall correctly he was trying out some fancy new delivery he learned during the off-season. The Giants sent him to minor league camp to change it back.

[klaiggeb]

I remember that, too.

He came into ST saying he was working on a new delivery.

What the?

That was all of our reactions.

Mark, I recall, was the most ticked of all of us.


Not smart on Barry's part.