Post by rog on Mar 2, 2018 13:29:23 GMT -5
I just came across an article that cited the fact that AT&T's home run factor for left-handed batters the past three seasons is 48. What that means is that homers there were 52% lower than on the road. The next closest was Fenway Park, with a factor of 71. That meant homers were 29% lower than on the road. AT&T was nearly twice as much below average as the next closest park.
Let's just say that's really hard to hit home runs at AT&T and appreciate Barry Bonds' home run record even more. Who knows how many he would have hit if he had played in Coors for instance.
But getting back to Belt, let's assume that his home runs at AT&T Park the past three seasons were held back by half and then add those back to see a reasonable projection for him in a neutral park.
Brandon hit just 19 homers at AT&T the past three seasons. Adding nine to that total would put him at 62 total home runs -- home and away -- the past three seasons. That's a homer every 22.8 at bats, meaning that in 570 at bats he would hit 25 homers. That's not great power, but it's more than adequate.
Now, that wouldn't change his "cricket" swing. But it would take him from an adequate power hitter to a good one. It would increase his RBI's.
Yahoo speaks of Belt's numbers being capped by AT&T Park, but says flat out "Belt can hit." Until he leaves AT&T Park he's unlikely to be on any of my fantasy teams, but even in AT&T he might make it if defense were included.
There are many things to criticize about Brandon's hitting. Randy is upset because he hasn't reached his potential. Me? I simply adjusted my estimate of his potential downward where the expectation was reasonable. An .819 career OPS while playing at AT&T isn't bad. It isn't bad at all.
As an example, Matt Williams' career OPS was .805, and Matt was a heck of a hitter. Remember too that Brandon's OPS would likely be a fair amount higher if he played in another park. Then his efficiency at the plate would easily exceed Matt rather than slightly doing so.
Remember though that unless Brandon switches home parks, his career OPS when he retires will almost certainly be lower than it is now. He may well wind up below Matt. But it is important to note that if Brandon played in a neutral park for left-handed hitters, it is unlikely that he would finish below Matt, since his career OPS at this point might be more like .840 or .850 rather than its present .819.
Let's just say that's really hard to hit home runs at AT&T and appreciate Barry Bonds' home run record even more. Who knows how many he would have hit if he had played in Coors for instance.
But getting back to Belt, let's assume that his home runs at AT&T Park the past three seasons were held back by half and then add those back to see a reasonable projection for him in a neutral park.
Brandon hit just 19 homers at AT&T the past three seasons. Adding nine to that total would put him at 62 total home runs -- home and away -- the past three seasons. That's a homer every 22.8 at bats, meaning that in 570 at bats he would hit 25 homers. That's not great power, but it's more than adequate.
Now, that wouldn't change his "cricket" swing. But it would take him from an adequate power hitter to a good one. It would increase his RBI's.
Yahoo speaks of Belt's numbers being capped by AT&T Park, but says flat out "Belt can hit." Until he leaves AT&T Park he's unlikely to be on any of my fantasy teams, but even in AT&T he might make it if defense were included.
There are many things to criticize about Brandon's hitting. Randy is upset because he hasn't reached his potential. Me? I simply adjusted my estimate of his potential downward where the expectation was reasonable. An .819 career OPS while playing at AT&T isn't bad. It isn't bad at all.
As an example, Matt Williams' career OPS was .805, and Matt was a heck of a hitter. Remember too that Brandon's OPS would likely be a fair amount higher if he played in another park. Then his efficiency at the plate would easily exceed Matt rather than slightly doing so.
Remember though that unless Brandon switches home parks, his career OPS when he retires will almost certainly be lower than it is now. He may well wind up below Matt. But it is important to note that if Brandon played in a neutral park for left-handed hitters, it is unlikely that he would finish below Matt, since his career OPS at this point might be more like .840 or .850 rather than its present .819.
