Some potential Giants center fielders

[rog]

Here are some center fielders MLB Trade Rumors speculated that the Giants might acquire.  They believe Jarrod Dyson is the top target, but that he may turn out to be too expensive, possibly necessitating a trade of Sam Dyson has had been previously mentioned here.  I'm thinking if the Giants can get the amount of money they would go over the cap down to a million or so, Cory Gearrin might be the one to be traded away.  Or Hunter Strickland, although Hunter appears to have greater potential.



Jarrod Dyson: The 33-year-old veteran is tops on the Giants’ list of targets, per ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, and it’s not hard to see why. Giants outfielders, in addition to posting a dismal .253/.311/.374 as a collective unit last season, also turned in a ghastly -32 DRS and -5.3 UZR. Their defensive, on the whole, was dreadful. Enter Dyson. At some point, it’s fair to worry that his speed and defense will decline, but his UZR/150 of 13.8 over the past three seasons (min. 1000 innings in the field) ranks 12th among all Major Leaguers at any position. He’d require a platoon partner given his career .215/.293/.259 slash against lefties (Austin Slater, perhaps).



It seems unlikely, though, that Dyson could be had for under $5MM annually. Signing him might require the Giants to move a reliever such as Dyson, as previously speculated.

[rog]

On Jon Jay:



Jon Jay: Crasnick listed Jay second among the Giants’ center-field targets in free agency, so it’s clear that San Francisco has some degree of interest. Jay would bring more offense to the position than Dyson, having posted roughly league-average (or better) offense in seven of his eight Major League seasons, by measure of OPS+ and wRC+. Jay is a left-handed hitter but has only a minimal platoon split in his career. He’s hit righties at a .289/.354/.392 clip and lefties at a .288/.359/.353 pace.



Jay, however, doesn’t have anywhere close to Dyson’s defensive skill set. He has rated as an above-average center fielder at times in the past, but he spent more time in the corners than in center with the Cubs last season and had below-average defensive ratings in center in consecutive seasons. Granted, even below-average would be an improvement for the Giants, who saw the since-traded Denard Span struggle considerably there in 2017. Jay, like Dyson, figures to cost more than $5MM annually, so signing him might require a corresponding trade if the Giants want to remain under the tax threshold.

[rog]

On Cameron Maybin and Rajai Davis (Remember him?):


Cameron Maybin / Rajai Davis: Maybin and Davis are similar in that each hits from the short side of the platoon, provides superlative baserunning skills and can generally be relied on in center field (despite lackluster ratings there in recent years). As the younger of the two, Maybin would be the pricier option, though Crasnick listed him third on the Giants’ list of center field targets in free agency.

The rest of the market is fairly light on players that could be reasonably expected to hold down a regular role in the outfield. Ben Revere could be a theoretical platoon pairing with Gorkys Hernandez in center, or if the Giants are looking more at reserve types, they could add a defensive-minded veteran like Peter Bourjos to the mix. But, if they’re looking to at a cost-effective center fielder, Dyson is perhaps the best bet.

[klaiggeb]

If they're smart, Rog, they'll avoid Maybin like the plague.

At least Dyson can hit a little bit.

boly

[rog]

The thing I like about Dyson -- who now has interest from the Orioles I think, which may make him too expensive -- is that he seems to be by far the best fielder of the group. Metrically he seems to be among the very best, and if we remember him from the 2014 World Series, he certainly passes the eye test. IIRC when the Royals made defensive substitutions, they moved Cain to right and put Dyson in center.

Jay is the better hitter, and he doesn't need to be platooned. His bat would play better at a corner. But while I think he would be a big step up from Denard defensivley, he might be about halfway between Denard at the bottom and Dyson near the top.

Dyson is said to be the Giants' first choice, but he may be escaping from their grasp.

[Islandboagie]

I just don't see Dyson being much of an upgrade over Gorkys. To me, getting Dyson would be a waste of money.

[rog]

Dyson appears to be a much better fielder than Gorkys. If the Giants do sign Jarrod (which I'm betting against now that the Orioles have expressed interest), he might wind up platooning with Gorkys. Let's say Gorkys starts against a southpaw and the Giants get a lead. The Giants might bring in Jarrod to play center and move Gorkys to left to replace Hunter Pence.

Jarrod would provide some excitement. Despite getting no more than 390 plate appearances in any season, he has stolen between 26 and 36 bases each of the past six seasons. He has 204 steals over his career and has been caught only 37 times. In other words, he is a premier base stealer.

Over his career, Dyson has 39 base runs in just over 1900 plate appearances, or roughly one base run for every 50 plate appearances. Because of playing much more often than Dyson, Dee Gordon has been the premier base stealer, with 274 steals over the past eight seasons. Gordon has just over 3000 plate appearances and 40 base runs.

To put this in context, Jarrod has stolen one base for every 95 or so plate appearances, while Gordon has stolen one every 110 or so plate appearances. This decade Dyson has been the most prolfic base stealer per plate appearance and is behind Gordon only because he's played just two-thirds as much.

The difference in base runs (which includes all base running, not just steals) is even greater. Dyson has a base run per every 50 plate appearances, while Gordon has one per 75 plate appearances.

One could make a decent argument that Dyson has been the best base stealer and base runner this decade. His defense has also been somewhat elite.

Those are the reasons I like Dyson better than Gorkys. Dyson is also a better hitter -- at least against right-handed pitchers.