What the Giants Have Accomplished This Off-Season

[rog]

The Giants entered this off-season with three primary problems:

.  They lost 98 games in 2017, tying them for the worst record in baseball.

.  They had one of the worst prospect lists in the majors.

.  They had almost no salary to work with under the luxury tax threshold.


So what did they do?  They went out and worked out trades for three different franchise players.  When Giancarlo Stanton vetoed the deal the Giants had worked out with the Marlins, the Giants strung together three deals that have brought them back to significance.

.  They made an addition by subtraction.  Not that Matt Moore was a bad influence or didn't have a reasonable chance to bounce back from the worst season of his career, but the Giants needed to subtract some salary to provide breathing room for their necessary additions.

.  They were able to in essence turn Denard Span's salary into a productive player in Evan Longoria.  And by getting the Rays to eat some of Longoria's contract, the Giants actually gained even a little more salary under the threshold.

.  Those two moves gave them enough salary money to pick up the final season of Andrew McCutchen, arguably an even better player over his career than Longoria.  And by getting the Pirates to pick up $2.5 million of McCutchen's $14.75 million salary in 2018, the Giants appear to have left themselves enough wiggle room to add a needed center fielder and a veteran starter who due to performance and/or age has fallen out of favor enough for the Giants to fit him in salary-wise.


The Giants even have a piece they could barter if they decide to improve through yet another trade.  Last summer they picked up veteran reliever Sam Dyson for nothing.  He had one of the worst starts to a season in recent memory, but the Giants picked him up based on his 2.14, 2.63 and 2.43 ERA's from 2014 through 2016.  They recently signed him to a $4.425 million contract for 2018. 

Not that they couldn't use him for bullpen depth.  He likely ranks ahead of Hunter Strickland as their set up man.  But saving that $4.425 million by trading Dyson might provide both the talent and the salary money to make yet another trade.  I'm not suggesting the Giants trade Dyson.  I'm merely mentioning that he gives them added salary space should they need it.

This off-season the Giants have taken minimal prospect talent and just a very few million in available salary and turned it into two former All-Stars.  We said they had a huge challenge, and I honestly didn't see how they were going to pull it off.  But suddenly they are both long on realistic hope and long of lineup.

They now have a center of the lineup and more than a flicker of hope.

[rxmeister]

I was thinking the same thing about Dyson when I saw how much he was making this year. Trading him would give them flexibility to get a decent centerfielder. If you could somehow then trade someone like Panik too, you could probably even get Lorenzo Cain with a backloaded deal. Problem is, that you’ve already traded Arroyo so you have nobody to replace Panik with. MLB reporter Jerry Crasnick says the Giants are still not out on Cain, but looking more at Jerrod Dyson, Jon Jay and Cameron Maybin in that order. Dyson is also talking to other teams though, so nothing is imminent. He’s a great centerfielder who can hit a little and would probably steal 30 bases. He’s probably looking for more than a one year deal though.

[klaiggeb]

We need a lead off hitter who can also play CF.

Based upon his lifetime .323 OBP, I'm not sure Dyson is that guy.

I think that IF I had the choice of Dyson and Jay only, I'd rather Jay

[sfgdood]

So, we pay 4 mil to a guy that got DFA'd...this is something to be happy about?

[Islandboagie]

None of these names excite me, I'd rather we give Duggar a shot in CF, or have Mccutchen play in center and Slater in right.

As much as I like the idea of getting a proven good defensive centerfielder, the player has to offer something offensively as well, these players don't offer anything but a gaping hole in the lineup.

And if we are interested in this style of player, why isn't Blanco being discussed? Blanco is better offensively than most if not all of these guy, plus we know he's good in clutch situations which at very least would make him a solid bench guy.

[klaiggeb]

I'm with you, Boagie... but I don't think I agree with the Duggar part.

At least not yet.

I'm with Bochy; I think he needs more time in AAA especially since last year was an abbreviated season.

I think he only played 44 odd games or so.

I like Jay. He can cover a lot of ground, and his history shows he's a good on base guy.

But I DON'T want to pay out the nose to get him.

Hernandez can be a place holder until Duggar is ready.


McCutchen admitted he was not very good in CF these last 2 seasons, so I DON'T think he'd be better for us.

That said, I DO want to see Slater in the line up, but the question is, where?

boly

[rog]

We need a lead off hitter who can also play CF.

Based upon his lifetime .323 OBP, I'm not sure Dyson is that guy.

I think that IF I had the choice of Dyson and Jay only, I'd rather Jay


Rog -- I would prefer Jay as a hitter, but easily Jarrod as a fielder and base runner. Jarrod needs to be platooned, but with the cavernous confines of AT&T, I'll bet he would hit more and thus reach base a bit more too.

It's about putting players in positions to succeed, and I think AT&T fits Jarrod nicely. Got to be platooned though. That's one of the tough things about the big pitching staffs of today. They make it harder to platoon. And on the other side, they make it easier for the pitching staff to match up.




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[rog]

So, we pay 4 mil to a guy that got DFA'd...this is something to be happy about?


Rog -- Only for those who understand baseball, Randy. Did you happen to notice his very low ERA's in 2014-2016? Did you notice that after a horrendous start to the 2017 season -- so bad he got waived -- he rebounded to pitch fairly well for the Giants, including 14 saves in his first 15 opportunities?

Mark and I spoke about how if the Giants need to free up more money, they wouldn't have much problem trading Dyson -- $4.425 million salary and all.

You're so negative, Randy, that you can't seem to see the forest for the cataracts.

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[rog]

And if we are interested in this style of player, why isn't Blanco being discussed?


Rog -- I love Gregor and would love to see him return. But he isn't a great center fielder anymore, and the Giants need fine defense there. That will help reduce the ERA's of their pitchers.

The Giants already have a fourth outfielder type in Austin Slater. And if they need a backup center fielder, Gorkys is much cheaper than Gregor.




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[sfgdood]

Who would trade for a 4.25 Million dollar pitcher whose ERA was over 6, even after pitching "fairly ell" after being released?

[rog]

I DO want to see Slater in the line up, but the question is, where?


Rog -- If Austin plays really well, he might be able to eventually beat out Pence if Hunter gets off to a really bad start. You like Austin as a starter; I don't. Let's see how his career goes.

There are many peripheral stats that put Austin in question. Remember how we talked about Maikel Franco as a hacker? Well, he didn't swing at many pitches outside the strike zone than Austin did. And when he did, he made better contact. Austin didn't swing at quite as many pitches outside the strike zone, but he also didn't swing at as many strikes. When all was said and done, Austin has 14% more swinging strikes than Franco did.

Austin's line drive rate was a horrible 14%, and his hard-hit ball rate was also weak at 24%. Franco hit many more line dries and hard-hit balls than Slater. Austin walked less than Franco and struck out more.

Austin does some things well with the bat, but in order to hit .282 he was lucky. If Austin hits .282 over his career, I'll be surprised. He isn't likely to hit for much power, either. He hits the ball on the ground way too much. Those ground balls will help prop up his average a bit, but he hit more ground balls than Dee Gordon, and Dee is TRYING to hit them. Dee also hit 50% again as many line drives as Austin.

Austin is projected to hit .262 with a .714 OPS this season.


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[rog]

Joe Panik is a very good player for $3.45 million this season. As you point out, Mark, the Giants don't have a good replacement, and they wouldn't free up that much salary by trading him.

I think Joe is the type of player the Giants should keep. Not a star, but something of a glue player. Solid on both sides of the ball. He hits lefties decently too.

A question for Boly: Joe has a .282 career average, the same mark Austin Slater put up last season. Do we believe Austin is as good a hitter as Joe?

[Islandboagie]

Rog- A question for Boly: Joe has a .282 career average, the same mark Austin Slater put up last season. Do we believe Austin is as good a hitter as Joe?

Boagie- I realize this question is directed at Boly, but I'd like to touch on it. I think at very least Slater has proven enough that he deserves a shot at getting a decent amount of playing time.

It amazes me that the same people that cry about the Giants giving up on players like Duvall and complain about the Dodgers having the young talent also have no interest in giving Slater a shot. Slater COULD be as good as Bellinger if given the opportunity. Do we not learn from past mistakes?

[rxmeister]

The Giants were burned last year when they put LF in the hands of Parker and Mac and they failed miserably. I totally agree with how they’re handling Slater. As a fourth OF he’ll get plenty of at bats, and he’ll have an opportunity to show them he should be in the conversation for starting in 2019. Cutch and Pence are in the last year of their deals and Slater’s performance will help the Giants make a decision on them next offseason. For the record, I hope Cutch stays, but although I love Pence, it’s time for him to go.

[klaiggeb]

A question for Boly: Joe has a .282 career average, the same mark Austin Slater put up last season. Do we believe Austin is as good a hitter as Joe?

***boly says***

Much, MUCH too early to tell.

Slater has a different approach at the plate what with the downward angle of his swing; as I pointed out what they USED to teach in the 60's and 70's.

He's show power-growth and an ability to get the bat on the ball.

I'm with Mark; I like the way they are handling him. I DO want to see him in the line up, but not before his time.

That's why I like the 4th outfielder spot for him.

boly

[rog]

I think that IF I had the choice of Dyson and Jay only, I'd rather Jay



Rog -- Armed with all the facts, I'll bet you would choose Dyson. The primary reason? Defense.

The defensive metrics haven't been kind to Jay in center field. He ranks about average. And last season his top end speed was third-worst among 58 center fielders. He doesn't seem likely to improve. In contrast, the metrics think Dyson is excellent out there. And his speed ranked 16th-best among center fielders.

Now, Jay Does get on base much better. His .355 OBP is good enough to lead off. Like Dyson he has very little power. He does hit southpaws well enough not to need to be platooned. But the clearest difference is that over the past three seasons he has stolen only eight bases. With 84 steals during that time, Dyson has stolen more than 10 times as many. And he's done so in just 101 attempts, being thrown out only 17 times.

I like Jay too. I think he's an excellent fourth outfielder. One of the best. But I think you would like Dyson much better for his defense and speed, which give him two-thirds of the holy grail -- speed, defense and pitching.

Look at their defensive and steals rating at Strat-O-Matic. I think you'll see what I mean.

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[klaiggeb]

I understand, Rog, but I am not a fan of Dyson's inability to hit and/or get on base sufficiently.

I, then, regarding OUR TEAM, I favor offense over defense when I'm looking at those two (2) guys

[Islandboagie]

This is another case of numbers just not telling the truth. Jon Jay is a very good to excellent centerfielder, and at very least he's well above average.

[klaiggeb]

See, I agree, boagie.

Every time I watch Jay play... I see good breaks, good angles, good all around defense.

That's one of the reason I just do NOT trust defensive sabermetrics.

[sfgdood]

Id choose the cheapest option for CF and spend more on pitching. In fact, I wouldn't mind a Duggar/Hernandez platoon because we primarily need pitching and defense now that we already picked our two offensive saviors.

[Islandboagie]

I agree, Randy. Our pitching rotation is where we lack depth now. Which is why i said a few months ago that the Cubs were smart to get Chatwood while other teams were kissing ass to Stanton and his agent.

Speaking of that, I hope the Yankees flounder and Stanton gets to watch us hoist the trophy from his couch.

[rog]

Who would trade for a 4.25 Million dollar pitcher whose ERA was over 6, even after pitching "fairly ell" after being released?
~Dood


Rog -- In this case, most teams. I'm fairly ell sure of it.





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[klaiggeb]

Put me in that boat with you and Randy, boagie.

I wouldn't mind a Gorkys/Duggar or even Slater, platoon.

boly

[rog]

I, then, regarding OUR TEAM, I favor offense over defense when I'm looking at those two (2) guys


Rog -- The Giants have made it clear that defense is their primary concern in center. If not, they could play McCutchen in center and try to sign or trade for a more powerful corner outfielder. They say it's important to have defense up the middle, and if the Giants get a good defensive center fielder, he should complement Crawford, Posey and Panik nicely.

The difference between Dyson and Jay against a right-handed starter isn't too bid (.731 OPS vs. .693 OPS), but Jay actually hits better with a lefty starter, while Dyson is overmatched against lefties.

Here is something I was thinking about the other night. If player A and player B hit .300 and .260 respectively in 500 at bats, player A has 150 hits and player B gets 130. If player B can come up with 20 outs defensively that player A can't make, the two are essentially equal all-around. If hitter B can pick up more than 20 extra outs in the field -- all other things being equal -- he becomes the better of the two players.

My sense is that even if the Giants used McCutchen in center, he would come up with 20 more outs than Span did. Jay should do better than that. Dyson might do a WHOLE lot better defensively.

Jay and Austin Jackson appear to be in the same class as fielders, although Jackson's top end speed last season was a full mph faster.

I prefer Dyson except that he would need to be platooned. The other two seem close, with Jay getting on base better and Jackson hitting for a little more power. Their career OPS are within one point of each other.

Jay would likely make the better lead off man, while Austin might be a bit better lower in the lineup.

Jay is beginning to sound like the best all-around fit for the Giants, but it's hard to ignore Dyson's speed and defense. The Giants are likely looking to see which of this trio -- plus Cameron Maybin -- will come the cheapest and for the shortest duration.

Maybe isn't quite the hitter Jay or Jackson is, and he may be the worst of the four in the field. He is a personal favorite of Willie Mays (possibly because he wears #24?), but I'm not as convinced.

Speed-wise, Dyson is about one mph faster than Maybin and Jackson, who are about one mph faster than Jay. If Dyson weren't strictly a platoon player, I would think he would be a clear choice. All-around though, Jay might be the best. His lack of speed in center bothers me though.

Hopefully any of these guys will be a band aid bridge to Duggar. That said, the Giants need to be prepared if Steven isn't ready.





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[rog]

I wouldn't mind a Gorkys/Duggar or even Slater, platoon.


Rog -- The weird thing about Gorky is that he hits righties better, not southpaws as one would expect. Similarly, the left-handed Duggar has hit southpaws about as well as righties. I don't think Slater is prepared defensively for center field, although he appears to have the speed to do so.

It would be nice if Austin learns to play all three outfield positions. He is said to have an OK arm for right field.




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