An Assumption and a Projection

[klaiggeb]

As usual, I'm impatient for the next move.

Yeah.

Like me being impatient is something new.

But it got me to thinking, again, of what a line up would look like IF we acquired, as Mark suggested, Lagares, and a hitter "like" Jay Bruce.

The problem that presents is "No lead off guy."

So how would we get around that?

Without Blazin' Billy, who IMHO, must hit one hole, Lagares could hit and should hit 8th.

So here's what I'd do:

1-Belt
2-Panik
3-Longoria
4-Posey
5-Bruce-Or a guy like him
6-Pence
7-Crawford
8-Lagares


Not my ideal lineup by any stretch, but it would give us

1-High OBP at one hole.

2-The ability to H/R in the 2 hole.

3-15-22- HR potential 3-6 hole.

My problem with this scenario is a decided lack of speed, but IMHO, it would give us the best chance to score runs and win.

boly

[Islandboagie]

If you want my honest opinion of your lineup, Boly...here it is.

Your lineup sucks.

I only say that because I know YOU know deep down your lineup sucks.

Belt leading off? That's a Rog thing, don't get pulled into that.

Sure, that could work if we had heavy hitters in the 3, 4 and 5 spots, but we don't. We have singles and doubles hitters. What do you need to score when you have singles and doubles hitters? You need speed.

Belt is fast for a 1st baseman, but not speedy in general. If Belt reaches base, in most cases you still need two additional hits to score him. Belt will not score from first on a double, nor will he likely score from second on a hard single.

Belt leading off is wasted in your lineup. Your lineup would be much better served having Duggar leadoff.

[sfgdood]

Belt is a waste no matter where he is in the lineup

[klaiggeb]

If those are the players we have, THAT'S what I'd do.

You and Randy KNOW I'm not a Belt fan.

I'm not.

But my criterion for a 1 hole guy is OBP and speed.

Belt supplies one of those 2.

IF those are our players, that's the best option I can come up with.

Roger's opinion had nothing to do with it, boagie, and that's the truth.

boly

[rog]

What do you need to score when you have singles and doubles hitters? You need speed.


Rog -- What a team needs most with those assets is what has been successful for them at times in the past -- to keep the line moving.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4229/assumption-projection#ixzz52aM2mq1C

[klaiggeb]

IF Duggar makes the team, boagie, I'm IN.

Everything about my line up changes...

IF he makes the team.

IF he can hit major league pitching.

IF he can handle the pressure of the 1 hole in the show.

That's a lot of "ifs"

[rog]

Belt leading off? That's a Rog thing


Rog -- If it's a Rog thing, it's probably a good thing. At the very least, it's likely well thought out. Given what the Giants have, the only reason I might not lead off with Belt is that they need as much power in the middle of the lineup as they can find, and Belt is one of the most powerful hitters on the team.

No Giants hitter hit more homers than Brandon last season. None has hit more homers the past two seasons than he. No Giants hitter has hit more homers the past three seasons than Brandon. None has hit more homers the past four seasons than he. None has hit more homers than he the past five seasons combined.

Speak up if you already knew that.

[Islandboagie]

Rog -- What a team needs most with those assets is what has been successful for them at times in the past -- to keep the line moving.


Boagie- I like the line moving, but you can't base your lineup on the hope of a rally and a big inning. Most runs don't come in bunches, they're manufactured. Especially in the NL West. If you don't have big hoppers in the middle, you need some speed at the top. Plus, Belt's OBP is significantly affected by his ability to walk (or in my opinion, his inability to be aggressive when it's called for.) So if he's leading off, the pitcher is less likely to walk him. So Belt gets more pitches to take weak defensive swings on and will get walked less, thus keeping the line NOT moving.

[rog]

Would you like a couple of positives regarding Steven Duggar?

Possibly the more important is that through the minor leagues, he's hit lefties about as well as righties, and in his abbreviated 2017 season hit much better against southpaws than righties.

Also important is that after stealing just 21 bases in 38 attempts his first two minor league seasons (188 games) this past season including the Arizona Fall League he nearly equaled that total in 64 games, stealing 19 -- IN 22 ATTEMPTS.

This is something of an absurd comparison -- since Billy Hamilton has been an elite base stealer much longer and at a higher playing level -- but last season Billy stole 59 bases in 72 attempts in 139 games. If we pro-rate Steven's 2017 steals over 139 games, he would have 41 steals in 48 attempts.

Two steals equal essentially one caught stealing, so if we calculate the NET steals for each player, Steven winds up with 27 net steals compared to Billy's 33. In Steven's sophomore season of 61 games at Clemson, he stole 25 bases in 28 attempts. I'm certainly not saying Steven is the base stealer Billy is, but the potential Steven showed in 2017 excites.

Want more intriguing stuff about Steven? His minor league career average is .292 WITH A .386 OBP and a .427 SLG. He's going to have a tough time keeping that average up -- he has struck out once every four at bats and his AFL average slipped to .263 and he struck out once every 3.7 at bats there -- but he's walked better than once every seven at bats, so even at say .260, he shows signs of getting on base.

It's a shame Steven missed so much of the 2017 season. Otherwise he might be ready right now. As it is, he certainly should be given a chance in spring training to compete for a starting job. As the Giants' corner outfield positions stand right now, he might even be one of the better hitting CORNER outfielders on the roster.

I'm not seeing much among the free agent corner outfielders at this point, but if the Giants could find a good one, I wouldn't be averse to having them go with Steven in center as soon as he is ready. I love that he hits southpaws. I love that doesn't have to hit for a high average to get on base. I love that he suddenly seems to be developing his base stealing.

Now it comes down to his level of development and the level of his defense.

[rog]

Most runs don't come in bunches, they're manufactured. Especially in the NL West.


Rog -- No question this sounds convincing, but it simply isn't true.

The Giants were tied for third in MLB in manufactured runs with 164. The other NL West teams had 157 (Colorado), 130 (Arizona), 128 (Dodgers) and 102 (Padres). The Giants tied for third in manufactured runs, were last in MLB with runs scored on homers with 166, and finished 29th in total runs scored with 639.

Even the Giants, near the bottom in runs scored and the top in manufactured runs, scored only a little over a quarter of their runs via manufacture. Most runs, in fact a very high percentage of runs, are NOT manufactured.

The Giants would of course benefit from scoring a lot more runs via the homer, but it appears the most realistic way for them to improve may be from keeping the line moving better. The Giants were next-to-last in OBP. It was more of a limbo line than a conga line.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4229/assumption-projection?page=1#ixzz52aYg4Z4i

[rog]

It's been a while since we looked this up, but the team with the more crooked number innings usually wins the game. Teams that win usually do score a lot of their runs in bunches.

Surprisingly, the Giants had a pretty good record last season when they scored four or more runs. Do we honestly think most of those runs were manufactured or came in single-run innings?

The Giants need more big innings. Manufacturing runs doesn't usually accomplish that. In fact, giving away outs HURTS the chances of big innings. If the Giants aren't going to hit a lot of homers, they need to get on base more.

That's part of the reason, by the way, that those who disparage Brandon Belt are wrong to do so. Last season he played excellent defense, led the team in home runs, and got on base better than anyone except Buster Posey.

We want the Giants to win with speed and defense. How does Brandon rate? Speed -- above average for a first baseman. Defense -- one of the best first basemen in baseball. The Giants need to get on base more -- one of the best in baseball. The Giants need more home runs -- led the team. If not homers, the Giants need more extra base hits -- first or second on the team in extra base hits each of the past three seasons.

Brandon Belt is far from perfect. But the problem with criticizing him is ignoring all the things he gives the team that it needs.

In order to score more runs, the team needs ... more Brandon Belts. In order to play better defense, the team needs ... more Brandon Belts.