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Dec 23, 2017 16:52:01 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Dec 23, 2017 16:52:01 GMT -5
I'm hoping Chris Haft is just shooting in the dark, but linking the Giants to Jacoby Ellsbury is not something I want to see.
For starters, he's 34.
Secondly is the 21 million he's owed this year.
Thirdly he has excellent range, but I'd rather have Blazin' Billy if THOSE are my only 2 choices.
Especially if we sign Jay Bruce for RF, which all indicators say that we will.
boly
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rog
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Dec 23, 2017 21:57:45 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 23, 2017 21:57:45 GMT -5
I like Austin Jackson, who could complement Steven Duggar, and wouldn't break the bank.
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CF
Dec 24, 2017 19:10:53 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 24, 2017 19:10:53 GMT -5
Austin Jackson sucks.
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rog
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Dec 25, 2017 3:25:39 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 25, 2017 3:25:39 GMT -5
It's possible the Giants could use a good center fielder who hit .318 with a .482 SLG.
Austin isn't THAT good, of course, and the time to get him was last winter when he was dirt cheap, but he should be able to hold down center field until Steven Duggar is ready, do so without breaking the budget, not require a long commitment, be useful as a pitch hitter, pinch runner and pinch fielder, and as a right-handed batter, be able to complement and perhaps platoon with Duggar when Steven is ready.
I did just see that Austin is projected as 3/$40 million in value, and the Giants won't go anywhere near that high -- nor should they. But if he is available on the cheap, he would seem to fit the Giants' situation.
If the Giants trade for Billy Hamilton, what will they have to give up, and what will they do with Steven Duggar is ready? Perhaps Duggar in a package for Hamilton? Perhaps. Hamilton would have a lot of ground in which to use his great speed.
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rog
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Dec 25, 2017 3:27:34 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 25, 2017 3:27:34 GMT -5
One thing about Hamilton is that he might have greater value to the Giants than about any other team. Defensively he would have the ground to cover, and offensively when he gets thrown out trying to steal, it wouldn't be as costly as with a team of sluggers.
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rog
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Dec 25, 2017 3:29:15 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 25, 2017 3:29:15 GMT -5
I would think that after trading their top prospect, the Giants might be somewhat traded out. Even Arroyo wasn't all that intriguing, but he seems a safe bet to be a starter. Fairly high floor with a fairly low ceiling.
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rog
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CF
Dec 25, 2017 3:30:20 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 25, 2017 3:30:20 GMT -5
The left-handed hitting Jacoby doesn't seem to be a great fit. Speed would likely become more and more of a problem.
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rog
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Dec 25, 2017 3:32:59 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 25, 2017 3:32:59 GMT -5
Any other ideas on center fielders? Kevin Kiermaier would be wonderful, but I don't think the Giants could land him.
Kevin Pillar is at least a right-handed hitter.
Whom would you recommend for center field, Boagie, and what do you think it would take to get him?
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Dec 25, 2017 12:01:33 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Dec 25, 2017 12:01:33 GMT -5
Jackson seems to be in his declining years, which makes me think getting him is just another Denard Span, but with a little more power and a better arm.
What I mean is, a guy on the down side of his career.
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rog
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Dec 26, 2017 1:06:09 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 26, 2017 1:06:09 GMT -5
Jackson might be on the downside of his career, but one wouldn't know if from last season.
The question the Giants must answer is, is Steven Duggar their center fielder of the future? If so, they should get a decent right-handed hitting center fielder to take over center field until Duggar is ready, and to complement Steven once Duggar takes over. The idea is to get a capable bridge and do it cheaply.
If Duggar's not the guy, then the approach should obviously be totally different. The first step in the decision tree is to answer whether Duggar is ultimately the guy, and how soon he can be that guy.
Even if the Giants have a good center fielder, they need a power hitting corner outfielder. If Duggar is the guy, the Giants should have enough money to carry them over that point -- and add the strong-hitting corner outfielder.
If they've got to spend a lot on center field, it will be tough to have enough left over for the corner.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Dec 26, 2017 1:23:50 GMT -5
Post by sfgdood on Dec 26, 2017 1:23:50 GMT -5
Happy about 32 year old Longoria but HATING Ellsbury? hmmmmm
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Dec 26, 2017 10:32:39 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Dec 26, 2017 10:32:39 GMT -5
We're talking 2 different skill sets, Randy.
An older CF with declining range, who's supposed to be a lead off guy but doesn't have the OBP to be one.
As opposed to Longoria, gold glove winner, a guy who can still hit around 20 HRs for us, which is what I've been shooting for all along.
That's why I prefer one over the other.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Dec 26, 2017 11:04:27 GMT -5
Post by sfgdood on Dec 26, 2017 11:04:27 GMT -5
Longoria might be able to still hit 20 bombs in Tampa's tin can park...MIGHT. In AT&T, at his age and declining bat speed, I'm thinking more like 10
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Dec 26, 2017 11:24:06 GMT -5
Post by rxmeister on Dec 26, 2017 11:24:06 GMT -5
If you check ballpark factors AT&T is the 27th worst Park to hit in, but Tampa is 24 th. That’s not much of a difference. He hit 20 homeruns last year, 10 at home and 10 on the road. The previous year when he hit 36, he hit more on the road than at home, AT&T is also a lot fairer to RH hitters than it is to lefties. Maybe you should do like two minutes of research before you make comments.
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Dec 26, 2017 11:34:17 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 26, 2017 11:34:17 GMT -5
Right handers aren't affected THAT much, Randy. Nick Hundley hit 10 hrs in Colorado in 2016, last year with the Giants he hit 9 in about the same amount of at-bats. He went from the best hitting park to the worse and only lost 1 homerun.
I understand your reluctancy about the trade, Randy. He's owed a lot of money...we lost Arroyo..but that's it. The Rays sent us money and Arroyo could be damaged merchandise. But theres no way of knowing right now if this is a bust or not.
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rog
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Dec 26, 2017 12:41:20 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 26, 2017 12:41:20 GMT -5
Longoria might be able to still hit 20 bombs in Tampa's tin can park...MIGHT. In AT&T, at his age and declining bat speed, I'm thinking more like 10 Rog -- So you're saying that Brandon Belt is close to twice the home run hitter Longoria is? Belt is twice as powerful as a guy who will exceed 300 homers in his career? One other question I'd like to ask: Have you looked at Evan's spray chart to see how many of his 20 homers last season he would likely have lost to AT&T Park? How many of his 36 the previous season he would have lost? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4222/cf#ixzz52ODdUDRt
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rog
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Dec 26, 2017 12:56:41 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 26, 2017 12:56:41 GMT -5
One factor that favors Longoria over Ellsbury is that Ellsbury bats left-handed, and three of the Giants' top four hitters already hit from the left side.
Another is that Ellsbury makes FAR more money than Evan -- and of course the Rays picked up enough of Longoria's salary that the Giants actually GAINED ground on the Luxury Tax threshold by trading Span for him.
A third is that while he's held his speed well the past three seasons, he's now 34, an age where it is tough to maintain one's speed. His speed is in the Slater/Span range -- average for a center fielder. If he begins to lose it, he'll likely struggle in center, especially in a park as big as AT&T.
As an aside, if both Matt Duffy and Christian Arroyo are able to bounce back well from their injuries, the Rays' infield may owe a debt of gratitude to the Giants.
As another aside, the Longoria trade had the rare quality of providing the opportunity for the Giants to improve themselves in 2018 but also in later years. We don't know how it will work out yet, but it was nothing if not creative.
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rog
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Dec 26, 2017 13:12:07 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 26, 2017 13:12:07 GMT -5
Randy, how would you fit Jacoby Ellsbury into the Giants' salary structure?
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Dec 26, 2017 15:41:30 GMT -5
Post by sfgdood on Dec 26, 2017 15:41:30 GMT -5
Rog -- So you're saying that Brandon Belt is close to twice the home run hitter Longoria is? Belt is twice as powerful as a guy who will exceed 300 homers in his career?
Dood...how stupid is this? In April, Belt will be two years younger than Longoria and the oaf currently has 200 fewer HRs. I never claimed that Evan never was a great power hitter commensurate with his big salary...but those days are long gone...kind of like you correctly stated that Pablo was no longer the great hitter he had been.
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rog
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Dec 26, 2017 16:07:00 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 26, 2017 16:07:00 GMT -5
Rog -- So you're saying that Brandon Belt is close to twice the home run hitter Longoria is? Belt is twice as powerful as a guy who will exceed 300 homers in his career? Dood...how stupid is this? In April, Belt will be two years younger than Longoria and the oaf currently has 200 fewer HRs. Rog -- I was merely using your own words, Randy. You said that you felt Longoria would hit about 10 homers, and Belt hit 18 last season (nearly twice that many) while missing a quarter of the season. You might have missed that I asked if Belt IS nearly twice the home run hitter Longoria is -- not was, not has been over his career. What I did was use the pertinent information. Glean the core of what you said. Realize that what you said was ludicrous. Lucidly ridiculous. You criticize Brandon Belt for not hitting enough homers, then you indicate you expect him to hit nearly twice as many as a guy who hit 36 homers are recently at the season before last. Those two things don't fit together. They don't come close to fitting together. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4222/cf#ixzz52P3ClTM5
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rog
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Dec 26, 2017 16:13:56 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 26, 2017 16:13:56 GMT -5
I never claimed that Evan never was a great power hitter commensurate with his big salary...but those days are long gone...kind of like you correctly stated that Pablo was no longer the great hitter he had been. Rog -- The difference is that I stated the latter when you almost insisted the Giants give almost unlimited money to Pablo, who was by that time a platoon player. Longoria is still far more than a platoon player -- and he's less expensive than Pablo was. You ridiculously say I'll never get it, but I certainly "got" Pablo a lot better than you, didn't I? If I'll never get it, what does that say about you? That you're the Gary Brown of Giants baseball fans? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4222/cf?page=1#ixzz52P57Rg7d
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Dec 26, 2017 16:19:39 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Dec 26, 2017 16:19:39 GMT -5
Randy:
On the Giant website on the day after the trade for Longoria, they had a Hr by Hr picture in dots as to how many of Longoria's HRs would have gone out of AT&T, and I think all but 4 of them would have.
And last year was a down year.
I'd love to see a picture of his previous seasons and how those HRs would have fared.
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rog
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Dec 26, 2017 16:29:53 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 26, 2017 16:29:53 GMT -5
I'd love to see a picture of his previous seasons and how those HRs would have fared. Rog -- I haven't seen the chart you are referring to, but if you keep it in your mind and then go to this link and look up his previous seasons, you should be able to see it clearly. One thing I should mention is that how well the ball carries enters the equation too. But what I've looked at seems to back up your point. www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=9368&position=3B&type=battedballBy the way, Randy says he assumes everything the Giants say is a lie until proven otherwise. I'm a thinking man, but if I wanted to simplify the process of finding the truth, I would simply read what Randy posts and assume the opposite. Not fail safe, but not bad for a very simple approach.
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Dec 26, 2017 18:32:24 GMT -5
Post by sfgdood on Dec 26, 2017 18:32:24 GMT -5
why do you think the 32 year old Longoria will have an upswing at our dead park? It is far more likely his power will continue to slide.
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rog
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Dec 26, 2017 20:41:16 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 26, 2017 20:41:16 GMT -5
why do you think the 32 year old Longoria will have an upswing at our dead park? It is far more likely his power will continue to slide. Rog -- On what do you base your opinion that Longoria will continue to slide, Randy? I agree with you that it's certainly possible, as this article suggests: www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/so-much-for-an-evan-longoria-home-run-rebound/But you should get into this discussion with gusto. Mark made a very salient point, saying that Longoria may have been playing through injury last season. While he made more contact than in most previous seasons, his contact seemed more defensive -- weaker with more ground balls. I pointed these things out as reason to think that Longoria might be declining -- not just in home runs, but overall. On the positive side, he did walk more and strike out less. Likely those indicate some improvement -- or that he was merely swinging defensively, possibly through an injury. So there's LOTS of reason to expect Evan to decline further -- in most categories. But it is far from guaranteed. There's also hope that he will recover. You might want to study both sides of the question. Regarding home runs, Evan crashed to 17 in 2012 from 31 in 2011. Then he bounced back to 32 homers in 2013. Then he fell for two years to 22 in 2014 and 21 in 2015. Then leapt to a career-high 36 in 2016 before falling back to an even 20 last season. This decade Evan has now had three significant home run drops. In each of the following two, he was back above 30 homers within two seasons. His pattern right now is to rebound. That said, he's getting older -- and he now plays in a tougher home run park. But as you saw when you looked at his spray chart, Evan pulls most of his home runs, and AT&T may not hurt him nearly as much as say J.D. Martinez, who hits a lot of homers to right-center in particular. Right now you seem to be -- or at least should be -- grasping for answers. You seem to be long on bravado and short on study and analysis. If you believe his power is more likely to continue sliding, you should be able to provide us at least two or three reasons why you believe that. Preferably more than two or three. You may be right here. But convince us you are. To put this into today's terms, right now you appear to be "fake news."
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