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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 21, 2017 18:12:51 GMT -5
Okay. We signed Langoria, and putting aside the fact that I'm surprised that this move continues to be poo-pooed on the board, I asked myself this question:
What else do we need to have a chance?
The obvious answer to ME is CF, #1, and RF, #2
IF...IF the rumors are correct, and we sign Bruce and Hamilton, where does that leave us?
First, let's deal with Strat-O-Matic fielding ratings.
Hamilton has been, and continues to be a "1" in CF, with a -2 arm. Which means virtually no one causally takes the extra base on him the way they did with Span.
Bruce dropped from a 2 RF, with a -4 arm in 2015, to a "3" RF, with a +0 arm in 2016. "3" is average at best.
That drop off is not good, and reflects my biggest concern about him; really can't cover the ground in RF that the team NEEDS covered.
Pence has been a "3" in RF, with a -1 arm, which I expect to change for the 2017 to reflect how poorly he played, to a "4" defender, and a +1, or +0 arm.
Again.
Not good.
From what I hear, Pence is moving to LF, which is a good thing, but if he cannot rebound with the bat, if he continues to NOT hit with power like last year, and flounder at the plate... we're screwed in LF, and right back to where we were when 2017 started.
Thus, Pence, Hamilton, Bruce from LF to RF.
Much better than last year, with considerably better arms.
In the infield is where we will be really strong, defensively.
Longoria is rated a "1", Crawford a "1", and Panik a "1"
In the Strat world, THAT kind of defensive is off the charts.
And let's face it, the 3 of them can really pick it in the field.
Belt has been ranked perennially as a "1" or a "2", so that is some great defense all across the infield.
But we really don't have a lead off guy unless Blazin' Billy can pull his head out of his fanny, take some coaching, and at LEAST get a .320 OBP.
THEN his speed will kill.
Then we will be feared with him on.
Thus, here's my lineup with THESE guys.
Billy
Panik
Longoria
Bruce/Posey
Posey/Bruce
Belt
Crawford
Pence
And that is NOT a bad line up at all IF the players would just have a 'typical' season for them.
We don't need a career year, just a typical year.
A lot depends upon a number of things:
1-Longoria being close to what he was. Not a 30 Hr guy, but a 20+ guy who drives in runs.
2-Belt FINALLY 'getting' it
3-Crawford rebounding
4-Panik staying healthy all year.
5-Pence getting back to close to what he was.
That's the way I see things.
boly
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 21, 2017 21:24:27 GMT -5
Bruce dropped from a 2 RF, with a -4 arm in 2015, to a "3" RF, with a +0 arm in 2016. "3" is average at best. That drop off is not good, and reflects my biggest concern about him; really can't cover the ground in RF that the team NEEDS covered. Rog -- Jay's defense has declined in recent years, and his speed is now ranked 47th out of 51 right fielders. He hits too many of his homers to areas that AT&T would likely affect. He has big lefty/righty splits, and the Giants seem overloaded against right-handers. Longoria may not help in that regard, either, since the past two seasons he has uncharacteristically hit righties better than lefties. For me, Jay is a big "no." Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4218/point-on-field#ixzz51x6SWZym |
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 21, 2017 21:35:11 GMT -5
In the infield is where we will be really strong, defensively. Longoria is rated a "1", Crawford a "1", and Panik a "1" Rog -- Crawford is definitely still a "1" IMO, but Longoria's defense is said to have been declining, and Joe had a down season defensively. Brandon should be a "1" now. He may have had his best defensive season last year. The infield and catcher were the big strengths defensively two years ago, and they should be the defensive strength again. If the Giants get Hamilton, he's a stud defender. Not sure where that would leave Steve Duggar though. Steve would be a fine defensive outfielder at either corner, but his bat might be a little light. Circling back to Longoria, he won his third Gold Glove last season, but it was his first since 2010. In The Fielding Bible voting the past three seasons he has ranked #10, #12 and not at all. Evan should be a nice improvement on the third base defense the Giants had last season, but I doubt very much he'll be a 1-level defender in 2018. For those who like metrics, Evan's defensive metrics last season were his highest since 2013. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4218/point-on-field?page=1#ixzz51x8JcTSB |
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 21, 2017 21:39:23 GMT -5
I would lead off with Panik and bat Hamilton 8th, kind of as a second leadoff man. Joe's a natural #2 hitter, but he gets on base, so he's probably a better leadoff man than Hamilton, who would likely be the Giants' worst position hitter. If the Giants get him, they'd better HOPE all their hitters are better than he -- or that Hamilton himself has his best-ever season at the plate.
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 21, 2017 21:43:34 GMT -5
If Brandon Belt ever "gets" it, I guess he'll be a good hitter. As it is, he's had the 2nd-best OPS on the Giants (behind only Buster) for some time.
Brandon's bat and glove have combined for 19 WAR in his half dozen seasons beginning with his sophomore season. Given how much he's been hurt, that shows a very productive player when he's on the diamond.
Not that WAR is everything by any means, but many if not most around baseball have a clearly higher opinion of him than many on this board.
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 21, 2017 22:48:30 GMT -5
Batting Hamilton 8 is something I thought of, too, but THAT takes away his best weapon; the Stolen base.
Steal a base in front of the pitcher and so what?
He only has 2 skills; defense and his speed.
That's it.
Have to maximize both.
boly
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Post by donk33 on Dec 22, 2017 0:33:58 GMT -5
Batting Hamilton 8 is something I thought of, too, but THAT takes away his best weapon; the Stolen base. Steal a base in front of the pitcher and so what? He only has 2 skills; defense and his speed. That's it. Have to maximize both. boly dk...than bat him ninth  |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 22, 2017 10:39:18 GMT -5
I could actually live with that, Don.
Bruce won't, but I might.
boly
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sfgdood
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stats geeks never played the game...that's why they don't get it and never will
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Post by sfgdood on Dec 22, 2017 11:09:11 GMT -5
I can't believe people continue to praise Evans and his crew of bunglers. This is an absolute joke
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 22, 2017 11:49:25 GMT -5
The joke is watching Span try to field in center. This trade makes us a better team next season. The worry about the financial situation 4 or 5 years down the road isn't my concern. Worrying about that is kind of like the Liberals worrying about the new tax bill. Basically, Randy, you have the same mindset as Nancy Pelosi.
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 22, 2017 14:45:12 GMT -5
Batting Hamilton 8 is something I thought of, too, but THAT takes away his best weapon; the Stolen base. Steal a base in front of the pitcher and so what? Rog -- That's a good point. I might move him up to 7th. What I was thinking about when I made my reply was really that I would bat him 9th, especially when he is batting right-handed and a good-hitting pitcher is going. With regard to his stealing ahead of the pitcher, no doubt that would reduce his attempts -- but not remove them. The pitcher might be unsuccessful in his bunting, providing another opportunity for Billy to steal second. Hamilton might steal second in order for the pitcher to bunt him to third. Hamilton might steal third base after the pitcher has bunted him to second. The bunt and run could be used, increasing the chances of the bunt's being successful and even giving Billy the occasional chance to make it all the way to third. Billy's second or third biggest asset -- his base stealing -- would be used less, but it would still come in handy a fair amount. It's possible that Billy's base stealing is only his FOURTH biggest asset -- behind fielding, base running and throwing. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4218/point-on-field#ixzz521KUlrr2 |
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 22, 2017 14:46:19 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 22, 2017 14:47:56 GMT -5
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 22, 2017 15:10:08 GMT -5
Rog, hitting Hamilton 7th is worse than hitting him 8th.
He gets on and steals second, they WALK the next hitter to get to the pitcher.
Nope.
I don't think that's a good call either.
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 22, 2017 15:10:13 GMT -5
Batting Hamilton 8 is something I thought of, too, but THAT takes away his best weapon; the Stolen base.
Steal a base in front of the pitcher and so what?
Rog -- That's a good point. I might move him up to 7th.
Boagie- Doesn't this idea defeat the purpose of creating the more modern, power-friendly lineup? If we want more power why are we even discussing Hamilton?
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 22, 2017 15:12:45 GMT -5
Yeah, Bochy did it more often.
I don't dispute that.
But it wasn't that successful and I DOUBT he'd do it again.
With Bum? yeah.
Anyone else?
Why?
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 22, 2017 16:14:12 GMT -5
Rog, hitting Hamilton 7th is worse than hitting him 8th. He gets on and steals second, they WALK the next hitter to get to the pitcher. Rog -- Don't we worry too much about that scenario? Let's look at the three scenarios: No outs -- If Billy steals second and they walk the #8 hitter, good. Then the pitcher can sacrifice them both over. One out -- If Billy steals second and they walk the #8 hitter, good again. The pitcher can still sacrifice them both over. Two outs -- A little more bothersome, but probably not by as much as we think it is. How much chance does the #8 hitter have to knock Billy in from second? About 25% or so. So they walk him and pitch to the pitcher. Now the chances go down to say 10%. We've lost 15% of a chance for a run. So far, so bad. But what about the next inning? How many more runs might we expect our team to score if the lead off hitter leads off the inning rather than comes to the plate with one out? The answer is more than 15% of a run, I can tell you that. So if the other team walks the #8 hitter and pitches to the pitcher, the run expectancy goes down -- IN THAT INNING. But in the next inning, the run expectancy goes up -- quite possibly by more than the previous inning's went down. The other team likely did our team a FAVOR by walking the #8 hitter. But what if it's the ninth inning, you ask? Then there ISN'T another inning and there ISN'T another chance. That -- among other times -- is when our team would use a pinch hitter, who quite possibly is a better hitter than the #8 hitter. If the situation comes up earlier than a pinch hitter would be used, there is another advantage, albeit it a small one. But by walking the #8 hitter to get to the pitcher, the #3 hitter has a one in nine chance of coming up again. And if he gets on, the cleanup hitter would come up again too. If we're going to evaluate a strategy, shouldn't we include its possible impact on the whole game -- not just on the one out it involves? Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4218/point-on-field#ixzz521ckfsDC |
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 22, 2017 16:30:41 GMT -5
But it wasn't that successful and I DOUBT he'd do it again. With Bum? yeah. Anyone else? Why? Rog -- One reason to try it further would be that lineup strategy -- based on thousands of simulations -- shows batting the pitcher seventh or eigth as being slightly better than batting him ninth. The individual situation should dictate of course, but believe it or not, the manager should probably be looking for reasons to bat him ninth rather than seventh or eighth. We know the primary reason the pitcher almost always bats ninth, don't we? Because that is almost always the way it has been done. I realize the traditional wisdom is, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. More progressive thinkers though take almost the opposite approach, which is, if it ain't broke, break it -- and come with an even better solution. It's certainly possible that if it ain't broke, taking a close look to see if it can be improved may determine that it can't in fact be improved at that time. But even if just once it results in an improvement, it was indeed worth "breaking" it. Don't "fix" something that doesn't need to be fixed. But if we don't take a look at better ways to build a mousetrap, how will we ever find one? Think about all the things in your life that aren't "broke." Does that mean they can't be improved? Let me give a baseball example. Buster Posey ain't "broke" as a hitter. He's a very good one. Does that mean he shouldn't take a look at what many other power hitters are doing and see if slightly increasing his swing angle might give him added power? Here's something I hadn't thought about until I read it recently. We talk about swinging level in order to keep the bat in the hitting zone as long as possible. Makes perfect sense, right? In reality, if we want to keep the ball in the hitting zone as long as possible, we should swing slightly UP. The ball is coming at us in a slightly downward plane. We're going to have the bat longest where it can hit the ball by mirroring the flight of the ball toward us, which means swinging slightly upward. If the swing ain't broke, that doesn't mean we shouldn't fix (improve) it. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4218/point-on-field?page=1#ixzz521ijXe91 |
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 22, 2017 17:59:00 GMT -5
I understand, but disagree with your logic, Rog.
I still see it this way; he has 1 offensive asset; speed.
We have to put him, and the team, in a position to take advantage of that speed, in this case, the ability to steal a base.
I remember the times we played him.
WHEN... WHEN he got on, he was terrifying!
He's the Maury Wills, Ricky Henderson on the bases of today's game.
I'm stunned the Giants are 'said' to be in such hot pursuit of the guy.
Maybe they feel they can 'fix' his ridiculous approach at the plate.
To me, that's a crazy gamble.
It 'might' work.
It 'could' work.
But is the juice worth the squeeze?
If he does make the adjustment, yes.
But I think the odds are way against it.
boly
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Post by Islandboagie on Dec 22, 2017 19:13:38 GMT -5
Gregor Blanco is a free agent, just saying.
Of course I'd still like Lorenzo Cain in a Giants uniform, but if they opt to just have Duggar in CF I'd hope they get someone like Blanco to backup just in case. What would Blanco cost us? A million, maybe 2 mil at the most?
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Post by klaiggeb on Dec 23, 2017 10:21:10 GMT -5
Blanco can still play, but I'm betting that they're going to go with Gorkys and Parker as the back up outfielders...UNTIL/IF the sign a RF and CF.
boly
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 23, 2017 21:35:12 GMT -5
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rog
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Post by rog on Dec 23, 2017 21:47:24 GMT -5
As of this moment, aren't Gorkys and Parker the starting center fielder and left or right fielder?
If the Giants get Hamilton, it will need to be for his defense. His offense isn't good. I agree with those who think the best thing to do with him offensively is to bat him ninth. Lead off with Panik, and after the first eight batters hit it will be like Hamilton is leading off and Panik is batting second.
For those who don't like Brandon Belt's ability to drive in runs, bat him lead off. He gets on base, and while he isn't a speed demon, he's a halfway decent base runner.
But I like the idea of batting Hamilton ninth. That has the advantage of getting him down in the order where he won't bat so often, but having him right in front of the good hitters when he does bat.
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