Rog

[rog]

Tim Lincecum is planning another showcase.  If you saw the picture of him, he's really ripped.  More importantly, he's said to be throwing hard again.  The speculation is that he'll sign a minor league contract or perhaps even be offered a spot on a team's 40-man roster.

I don't know how he would feel about a reunion with the Giants, but I would think it would be a natural.  If he's throwing hard again, I'd certainly take a chance on him.  Maybe even a major league contact with heavy incentives.

After breaking in at 94.2 mph in 2007, Tim fell to 87.7 in his 2015 time with the Angels.  In 2012 when he fell off so badly, he fell off nearly two mph, dropping from 92.3 to 90.4.  If Tim can get up to around 92 mph again, he'd certainly be worth a shot.

[rog]

Wouldn't it be wonderful if Tim could be that added starter the Giants are looking for? On the other hand, Denard Span has never been the same in the field after his own hip surgery.

Tim is still one of the most popular San Francisco Giant in history.

[rxmeister]

I would pass on Lincecum. He did that showcase before and was throwing 92 mph and he was signed by the Angels and was just awful. Let me know when he’s throwing 97.

[rog]

I think most of the teams will take a look. And very likely someone will give him at least a minor league contract. I don't know if anyone has seen his workout picture, but he's really ripped. That's not the same as pitching well, of course, but it looks as if he's done just about everything he can.

He's been working with the group that I believe is called Driveline Pitching. I'd forgotten about them, but a decade or so ago when I was studying pitching, I came across them, and IIRC I liked their methods.

Even many of the top kid pitchers today have special training groups.

If Tim has truly improved, it will show up in his stuff -- not just velocity. After his horrible performance in 2015, teams will be more skeptical this time. But what is the risk of signing him to a minor league contract, and if he looks really good and it's necessary to sign hom, making it a major league pact that is heavily incentivized.

I was out of town and didn't get to see his showcase in 2015. I saw just a pitch or two on ESPN and couldn't really tell much from that. But this is why teams have scouts.

[Islandboagie]

I don't think we're in any position to blindly pass on anyone.

The Giants management would likely find even more interest than most teams because at the very least he would bring fans to the park.

[klaiggeb]

For MLB, 92 is an average fastball.

Tim's spectacular career was when he was throwing a lot harder.

Command was always his issue.

If he can't command 92, he's going to get hit hard, just as Mark said he did, with the Angels.

boly

[rog]

Tim was effective at 92 mph in 2011. He dropped to 90 in 2012 and began to consistently hammered.

I'm not certain but I think he threw between 90 and 92 at his previous showcase. I remember being surprised he didn't throw harder. That 90 to 92 translated to 88 mph with the Angels during the 2015 season.

I would be looking at his movement and command, and I would hope he was throwing 94 to 95.

I'm not sure, by the way, that 92 is an average fastball. I think it may be 93. 92 is probably about average for a starter though. But even then I might be a mile per hour low.

I think I've read that the average fastball has risen two or three mph in the past decade. I might be a little off (I've been told I'm a little off. Those who know me say I'm a lot off), but the change in average velocity has been quick and significant.

IIRC, Driveline is very mechanics oriented. I may even have e-mailed it founder about Tim's mechanics at that time. Let's hope that Driveline has helped Tim repeat his delivery more consistently.

[rog]

Look up Driveline Baseball online. I just took a quick look, but it isn't a fly-by-night operation.

[klaiggeb]

Rog, he might have been effective in 2011... but every season after that was an ERA of over 4 and then some.

Again, for Tim, it's command, as it is for ALL pitchers, but what makes it worse for him is that keeping that command is more difficult for ALL of the reasons I've stated ad nauseum.

boly

[donk33]

Dec 20, 2017 23:23:36 GMT -5 rog said:

Tim was effective at 92 mph in 2011. He dropped to 90 in 2012 and began to consistently hammered.

I'm not certain but I think he threw between 90 and 92 at his previous showcase. I remember being surprised he didn't throw harder. That 90 to 92 translated to 88 mph with the Angels during the 2015 season.

I would be looking at his movement and command, and I would hope he was throwing 94 to 95.

I'm not sure, by the way, that 92 is an average fastball. I think it may be 93. 92 is probably about average for a starter though. But even then I might be a mile per hour low.

I think I've read that the average fastball has risen two or three mph in the past decade. I might be a little off (I've been told I'm a little off. Those who know me say I'm a lot off), but the change in average velocity has been quick and significant.

IIRC, Driveline is very mechanics oriented. I may even have e-mailed it founder about Tim's mechanics at that time. Let's hope that Driveline has helped Tim repeat his delivery more consistently.

dk...I heard that they  started to meter the pitcher at the point of  release instead of just before  it  reached  the plate...the pitch slows down after it is released....the readings in the last few years are faster than they were before the change....

[rog]

My point, Boly, was that Tim was still an effective pitcher at 92 and above (average), but he failed miserably at 90 and lower.

For Tim,the tipping point seems to have been somewhere in between 92 and 90. The one thing we don't know is the effect of his hip on his command and movement. That certainly could have been a part of the equation too.

[rog]

I heard that they started to meter the pitcher at the point of release instead of just before it reached the plate...the pitch slows down after it is released....the readings in the last few years are faster than they were before the change...


Rog -- That could be a good point, Don. But I doubt it for the following reason: The average fastball has risen little by little. If it were due to a change in the reading point, it would been a precipitous rise.

It's pretty easy to see, for instance, that the ball changed after the All-Star game in 2015 I think it was. The homer rate immediately soared. Hitters have also changed their approach to take advantage of the livelier ball, but just like ERA's soared by over half a run from 1968 (raised mound) to 1969 (lowered mound -- and smaller strike zone IIRC), the change in home run rate wasn't gradual, but rather was sharp and immediate.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4215/rog?page=1#ixzz51vfCAryx

[klaiggeb]

And my point, Rog, is that even at 92... he ONLY had one good season.

The remainder, at 92 mph, were not very good.

So I guess I don't get your point.

You pick out 1 year, and use that as your basis for opinion?

What about the seasons afterwards when he was STILL throwing 91-92?

By your logic, Rog, I guess they don't count?

[rog]

And my point, Rog, is that even at 92... he ONLY had one good season.

The remainder, at 92 mph, were not very good.

So I guess I don't get your point.

You pick out 1 year, and use that as your basis for opinion?

What about the seasons afterwards when he was STILL throwing 91-92?

By your logic, Rog, I guess they don't count?


Rog -- I think you misunderstood, Boly. There WERE no seasons after 2011 that he threw 92 or higher. That was my point.

The two seasons he threw 92, his ERA's were 2.48 and 2.74. He was reasonably good. The year in between, he wasn't too bad either, twirling a 3.43 ERA and winning the MVP Award of the 2010 postseason.

There WERE no seasons after 2011 when he threw 92. He threw 90, 90, 90, 87 and 88. Understand now why I said Tim's tipping point came when he dropped from 92 mph in 2011 to 90 mph in 2012. If you re-read, I think you'll see it.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4215/rog#ixzz51wyJYvTy

[rog]

I think I failed to mention it specifically, but in 2010 Tim threw 91.

[klaiggeb]

Even in his last year with us he hit 90/91 quite a bit.

Command; he doesn't have it

[Islandboagie]

There's a big difference between hitting 90-91, and averaging 90-91. Which are you guys talking about?

[donk33]

Dec 21, 2017 15:27:08 GMT -5 rog said:

I heard that they started to meter the pitcher at the point of release instead of just before it reached the plate...the pitch slows down after it is released....the readings in the last few years are faster than they were before the change...


Rog -- That could be a good point, Don. But I doubt it for the following reason: The average fastball has risen little by little. If it were due to a change in the reading point, it would been a precipitous rise.

It's pretty easy to see, for instance, that the ball changed after the All-Star game in 2015 I think it was. The homer rate immediately soared. Hitters have also changed their approach to take advantage of the livelier ball, but just like ERA's soared by over half a run from 1968 (raised mound) to 1969 (lowered mound -- and smaller strike zone IIRC), the change in home run rate wasn't gradual, but rather was sharp and immediate.

dk...why do you always doubt what I say...the way they measure the speed of a pitch started several years ago... I was repeating what I heard or read...why not ask around before you complain....in my opinion...again my opinion, not based on lab results....the ball is juiced up every time interest in baseball slacks off..the homers pick up and  then the fans return to watch.....the dumbest thing baseball does is to use the wild, rabbit ball in the homer derby....some idiots think these guys can all hit a legit ball 600' with a pitcher lobbing the ball into them...



Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4215/rog?page=1#ixzz51vfCAryx

[klaiggeb]

I can't remember what his average velocity was, boagie, I just remember seeing the radar figures as almost always 90/91

[rog]

I can't remember what his average velocity was, boagie, I just remember seeing the radar figures as almost always 90/91


Rog -- That's the problem with memory -- it can (and often does) fail us, especially as we get older and events become further removed. The gun wasn't almost always 90/91. If it had been, he wouldn't have averaged 88.

What you are probably remembering, Boly, is that at his high he was hitting 90 or 91.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4215/rog#ixzz521FgXrHo

[rog]

Hey, you're right, Don. I had missed it. The change came last season (whose results I probably haven't seen), and it was real. The velocity gap has been estimated at just under one mph. The change standardized the methodology. Some parks had used the "new" method, others weren't.

So, see, there's another time a poster helped change my mind. And I apologize, Don, for being wrong -- and for doubting you. My information was clearly based on only up to 2016. Speaking of which, I came across a chart here -- again, Don, thanks for bringing the topic up -- that showed the average fastball increased from about 88.5 mph in 2002 to about 91.5 mph in 2016. In other words, about three mph in 14 seasons, of about 0.2 mph per season. Nearly 2/3rds of the growth appears to have come between 2002 and 2009.

Based on the methodology change last season, there should be a spike in 2017.

[donk33]

I s till think if Tim started to throw legally and kept his foot on the rubber and use his lower body to power his throw he could pitch again....you have to be very flexible to throw strikes when you're jumping towards the hitter before you start your pitching motion....

[klaiggeb]

Those are great points, Don, but that, too goes back to my problem with him

Mechanics. His are NOT simple and thus are NOT as repeatable as they could be.