Not Willing To Adjust

[Islandboagie]

That's me.

I'm not willing to believe that the only way to win now is with power stacked lineups, Even though the so-called experts are claiming it. These so called experts have been wrong MANY times before.

The Giants obviously need more bats to protect Posey, and they need a leadoff hitter. They need a lineup that scores more runs, not one that hits homeruns. We've had that, and it didn't win us a championship, pitching and defense did. The Tigers and Rangers had those power lineups when we beat them in the World Series.

I'm not blind, I know many successful teams are adopting that strategy now, I was the first to point it out here, but those teams aren't too good that good pitching and defense can't beat them.

The Giants didn't lose 98 games last season because those power teams got better than the Giants from their championship days, the Giants just got worse, much worse. They need to get better.

How do they get better?

Better outfield defense, better pitching from their starters and relievers and taking more quality at-bats, making the opposing pitcher work and smart baserunning.

I think they might have a bullpen that's starting to take shape. I'm intrigued by Crick and what he can do in 2018. I hope Melancon will be better and Smith can put his surgery behind him. If that happens our pen could be good, if not very good.

Hamilton is fast, but we can't sacrifice that much offensively to get a guy who can play CF. I'd much rather see a well rounded CF and RF. I'm still sticking with Cain and Melky right now.

I really hope after these grandiose ideas of Ohtani and Stanton have fizzled out that they're now looking at a more solid strategy of upgrading the 25 man roster as a whole.

[sfgdood]

You can't deny the facts...all 4 of the LCS participants have power up and down their lineups. The game has changed, Boagie...power is a necessary componnent to a successful offense.

[Islandboagie]

Teams that didn't do very well also had power up and down their lineup. Look at the Marlins who are dismantling the entire team right now, they had a a lot of power.

[rxmeister]

Marlins didn’t have good pitching though. They certainly had enough offense to make the playoffs. It’s so much work for the Giants to score a couple of runs, while other teams do it with just one swing of the bat. You can win with less power than the other teams but not without no power whatsoever and that is what the Giants have right now. I think that’s what you’re missing here Boagie. Up and down the lineup, no power at all.

[rog]

As we have been saying for months now, the Giants are faced with a really challenging problem -- almost insurmountable within the present budget. Since we're talking about power, let's look at where the Giants stand there.

I think their lack of power is summed up by two statistics:

. The Giants were not only last in the majors, they were last BY 23 HOMERS. They could have added a quarter more home runs, and they still would have been last.

. If we add Giancarlo Stanton's 59 homers to the Giants' 128, they STILL would have finished only 23rd in home runs.

The Giants are so powerless, they would have had to have not only Stanton last season -- the guy who posted, what, the 9th-best homer total ever -- AND three or four 20-homer guys just to be AVERAGE in home runs.

Now, the good news. While as Mark said it's really hard to score runs without home runs, it's not impossible. When the Giants won the World Series in 2014 they hit just four more homers than this season. Yet they were above-average in runs scored.

As Mark would tell us, here's the problem. The Giants' 132 homers in 2014 was just below average in the majors. As mentioned above, the Giants' 128 homers were not only last, but last by over 25%.

The game has changed. Home runs are a bigger part of it just since 2014, and pitching and defense are less a part. On-base percentage and home runs have become a bigger part.

The Giants need to focus on overall team improvement. Their deficit in many areas is just too much to improve enough in that area alone.

Here's a fun one regarding home runs last season: If the Giants had added the home runs leaders in both leagues, their total would still been less than the Yankees' total of last season.

That should give us an idea of how big the gap has become.

[rog]

By the way, Randy, very nice comment here. Power is more important to run scoring than any time this decade, if not well before that.

[Islandboagie]

I'm still not buying it. You can score runs with walks, singles, doubles and smart base running. Runs are what matters, not how many feet some juiced up player hits a homerun. Even if it turns out this boring style of baseball is the only way to win, I'm fine with losing.

Now, that doesn't mean I don't think we need a good hitter or two with power to plug into the middle of our lineup, that would be nice. But I don't want to sacrifice pitching, defense and base running just for that one or two power hitters.

Denard span wasn't a detriment to the Giants last season because he didn't have power, it was his awful fielding and inability to reach base regularly.

[rog]

I'm still not buying it. You can score runs with walks, singles, doubles and smart base running. Runs are what matters, not how many feet some juiced up player hits a homerun. Even if it turns out this boring style of baseball is the only way to win, I'm fine with losing.


Rog -- I'm not fine with losing -- unless it is because the Giants are building for the future.

If you mean that a team can score more runs with walks, singles, doubles and smart base running than the Giants did this season, I'm right there with you. If you mean they can score more runs with homers, I think that's possible -- but not likely.

The top nine run scoring teams in baseball hit from 64 to 113 more homers than the Giants. Ouch!




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[rog]

Why have homers become more important? Because there are more of them than at any time in history.

Why is speed less important? Because once a runner gets on base, he is likely enough to be driven in by power or a combination of hits than the risk of his getting thrown out often isn't worth it.

Why is defense less important? Because fewer balls than ever are being put in the field of play.

[rog]

Now, that doesn't mean I don't think we need a good hitter or two with power to plug into the middle of our lineup, that would be nice. But I don't want to sacrifice pitching, defense and base running just for that one or two power hitters.


Rog -- Doesn't it depend on who those players are -- both the players coming and the players going?




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[rog]

Denard span wasn't a detriment to the Giants last season because he didn't have power, it was his awful fielding and inability to reach base regularly.


Rog -- Denard was a detriment to the Giants last season because he was a horrible fielder and a platoon hitter.




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[rog]

By the way, the Giants and we couldn't necessarily see that Denard would decline so drastically in the field. I'm guessing it must be related to his injuries, but many players have been injured without declining anywhere near THAT drastically.

But they and we could certainly see that he was a platoon hitter.

[rog]

If every Giants starting position player had hit 10 more home runs last season, they still would have finished just below the league median. That's why it is so hard to catch up with 20-homer guns.

Again, it depends on the total player, as Boagie has been indicating. But power has never been so important and to the best of my knowledge, the Giants have never been so far behind.

By the way, even with their three World Championships this decade, the Giants have averaged only a little over four runs per game. That would have placed them #29 in scoring last season. The actually finished ... #29 in scoring.

In their three World Championship seasons, the Giants average 693 runs per game. That would have placed them in a tie for 26th last season. Whether it be with homers or by other means (more than one means will almost certainly be necessary), the Giants truly need to improve their scoring. Even their three World Championship teams would be well below par in today's game.

[rog]

The Giants' hitting is OK at all the infield positions (including catcher) except third base, but the outfield and third base hit almost historically poorly last season. As Boagie said, the bullpen could be OK. The rotation is a bit of a question mark, but it should be at least passable -- and possibly pretty decent.

But the Giants need hitters at the #5, #7, #8 and #9 positions. (I'm talking field positions, not batting order spots.) All four positions. That's why this off-season is so tough.

I haven't researched him, but Evan Longoria has still been a pretty good player. He'll make $13.5 million this season, increasing by about a million per season until he makes $19.5 million in 2022. The Rays have a $13 million option on him for 2023, with a $5 million buyout.

[Islandboagie]

Rog- In their three World Championship seasons, the Giants average 693 runs per game. That would have placed them in a tie for 26th last season

Boagie- Im pretty sure 693 runs PER GAME would have placed them higher than 26th

[Islandboagie]

I don't think they need hitters at 3rd, LF, CF and RF..

Of course, upgrading all 4 would be ideal, but I think the combination or Arroyo and Pablo will make a decent platoon at 3rd, at least until one proves to be the starter.

Same story in LF. Pence and the system depth (Shaw, Slater, Duggar, Parker) we have for a corner outfield spot will be acceptable in LF. Of course, only if we get more production out of CF and RF.

CF, RF and adding another starter should be the focus. The rest will work itself out in Spring training.

[rog]

I think you're pretty much on target, Boagie. I hadn't mentioned a starting pitcher, but I also don't have much confidence in Blach or Stratton. Hopefully at least one of the two can fill out the rotaton, but as you said, they would still need another starter. And I know you don't have much confidence in Szmardzia either. I'm hoping the Big Three each has a good season, lessening the need for a strong #4 and #5.

I suspect that as you said, the Giants have a little confidence that between Arroyo and Pablo they have their third baseman. Until Christian is ready, Pablo could platoon with Tomlinson, and Kelby could be a defensive replacement for Pablo, who sadly just isn't any good in the field anymore. I mean he's been REALLY bad over the past three seasons.

Likewise the Giants might have your favorite Steven Duggar in center sometime in 2018. I'm guessing he's no better than an average center fielder, but it would be hard for him to be worse than Denard. Duggar hits left handed, so Gorkys Hernandez might be a platoon prospect.

You may be right that between Denard and Hunter the Giants could fill left field. But I'm hoping at least one of the two can be traded. If that is Denard, Hunter might be able to go it alone. If it's hunter, maybe Slater could platoon with Span.

Right now the Giants are about as thin in the outfield as they were last season, and they don't have Eduardo Nunez available for third base or as a Swiss Army Knife. Eduardo may not be too expensive, and I would be interested in him except that he has a hard time staying healthy, and he's a poor fielder.

If I were prioritizing, I would be about where you are. Right field first (hopefully with power), then a starting pitcher (which I hadn't thought of before, thank you very much). I think center field depends on how the Giants view Duggar. I'm still worried about left field, which still have the potential for disaster. And I'm not sold on Arroyo, although I don't think he would be a disaster.

The bullpen might work, but I expect the Giants to add a minor piece there.

Here's something I came across from a chat at MLB Trade Rumors. Naturally the "Bobby Evans" is a poster's name, not the real Bobby Evans.

Bobby Evans
3:22 When does the offseason officially start? Can I make a move yet?
Steve Adams
3:22 The Giants traded Matt Moore and signed Nick Hundley in the past five days after spending more than a month negotiating for Giancarlo Stanton. It's not like they haven't been active.

I forgot that it has been said the Giants were trying for Stanton as far back as July. I think they were truly interested.

Another issue we had here was that the Braves and Dodgers had somehow colluded in making their trade. Especially criticized were the so-called plans for the Braves to waive Gonzalez and for the Dodgers to waive Kemp.

Now we learn that the Dodgers are trying to trade Kemp, not waive him, although I suspect that will end with their waiving him anyway. Gonzalez DID get waived right away, but it turns out he would waive his no-trade contract only if the Braves agreed to waive him to perhaps give him more freedom in where he actually plays.

We get upset with reports who we say are making up news with their rumors, then we make up our own news by misinterpreting things that have happened or are happening. We get upset with the Giants for not making more moves, but with the re-signing of Nick Hundley and their acquisition in the Rule 5 Draft, the Giants have been more active than the average team.

Nothing to get excited about quite yet, but the Giants seem to be active and moving in a reasonably prudent direction. I don't see the situation as quite as bleak as I did after the Giants lost out on Stanton and Ohtani.

We're probably a little early in judging. As Mark said, the season doesn't start tomorrow. And as the top observers are mentioning, this has been a REALLY slow off-season thus far. There are still plenty of players to choose from.

[rog]

Boagie- Im pretty sure 693 runs PER GAME would have placed them higher than 26th


Rog -- That is a possibility!




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