Bob Nightengale from winter meetings

[rxmeister]

I know some around here aren’t Nightengale fans, but he was the first to say they’d go after Stanton and everyone scoffed at him. He’s now reporting they’ll go after JD Martinez first and then Jay Bruce if they fail there. He also reported the real Giants offer for Stanton. It was Tyler Beede, catching prospect Aramis Garcia and 230 million of Stanton’s contract. A far cry from the ridiculous offers reported by some others.

[sfgdood]

wasnt he the guy who said the Giants were the favorites to get Stanton?

[rog]

Think about what you just said, Randy. Given that the Giants and Marlins had a trade worked out had Stanton ratified it, I would say that at one time the Giants WERE the favorites. Being the favorite doesn't guarantee the deal will be made, any more than being the favorite at a race track guarantees that horse will prevail.

One thing that surprised me in the end is that I felt the Yankees' offer turned out to be quite a bit better than the Giants' offer. It seemed they kind of swept in at the last moment, and they swept in very strongly.

By the way, the deal will likely work out best for the Yankees if Stanton DOES opt out. That would likely mean they got their value over three of Stanton's prime years. It is if Stanton DOESN'T play well enough to opt out that their risk increases exponentially.

That's the reason I didn't like the deal for the Giants. A reasonable expectations for Stanton over the next three seasons is that he'll play well enough to opt out. And except for his likely missing a lot of games, that will be a very satisfactory result for the Yankees. It's if he gets seriously injured, is chronically injured or simply stumbles that the Yankees might wind up with an albatross.

In which case we will be looking back and thanking our lucky stars the Giants didn't sign Giancarlo. The odds are the trade WILL work for the Yankees, but their risk if it doesn't will be quite expensive.

[rog]

Much as I love Martinez, he is the wrong guy for the Giants to go after. Three reasons, all of which have to do with the configuration of AT&T Park:

. We know his defense is bad, and that will be accentuated by the vastness of right-center field.

. Looking at his spray chart, we see that many of his home runs were hit to right-center. Many of those wouldn't be homers at AT&T.

. Because of factor #2, the Giants would likely have to overpay for Martinez's services even more than other teams will have overpay for him.

Much as I love Martinez's hitting, San Francisco shouldn't be his destination. And I can't imagine that it will be -- unless the Giants' grossly overpay.

Now, if the market for Martinez dries up, that would be a different story. But it's hard to imagine it would dry up enough to drive the price down to where a deal would make sense for the Giants.

[rog]

Similar situation with Jay Bruce. He has at least two "problems" that would hurt:

. First, he is another lefty hitter. Panik, Belt, Crawford, Sandoval (essentially), Span, and Parker (if he plays). Know which side the Giants' future center fielder, Steven Duggar, bats from? You guessed it.

. Although he even hit a homer down the left field line in 2016, Jay is a pull hitter. Good for AT&T if you bat right-handed, which Bruce of course does not. Instead he hits most of his homers to right-center and right. Worse yet, when he hit the ball deep that way, he seems to do so more with a lot of line drives, although not as many in 2017 as in 2016.

I'm not listing this as a specific reason for not signing Jay, but while he once was a good outfielder, he seems to be declining into a below-average one. He has enjoyed an exceptional combination of arm strength, accuracy and quick release, but those too seem to be on the decline.

Maybe that SHOULD be a third reason. In fact, I've got to add it. He's slightly slower than Martinez and is below average in getting to and catching the ball. We might describe Bruce's defense as minus, with Martinez's being minus minus.

On a dollar-for-dollar basis, contract length-weighted, I would choose Bruce. But my preference would be to choose neither, unless it were on a very short contract at a reasonable price -- which isn't likely to happen with Bruce and would be shock with Martinez.

[klaiggeb]

I'm not crazy about his age, which makes his range in RF decreasing with the passing of each year.

I'm also not crazy that he can't even hit .250.

Going back to 2014, he's ONLY hit over 30 HRs, once.

Not good enough for the money he'd get.

boly

[rog]

Going back to 2014, he's ONLY hit over 30 HRs, once.


Rog -- You misread his stats. He's hit 33 and 36 homers the past two seasons, and has averaged right at 30 homers per season his past seven.

The issue with Bruce is what you said -- his fielding. And his ability not to hit home runs, but to hit them in San Francisco. He's fared well in a small sample (seven homers in 116 at bats, with an .882 OPS), but I doubt very much that would continue.

Are any of you guys going to Fan Graphs to see these guys' spray charts? They show where the player hits the ball, and where he hits his homers. That is a decent guide in assessing how the player might adapt to AT&T.

Also, go to Baseball Savant and see how fast Martinez and Bruce are, for instance. See how well they have played in the outfield and what their trend is.

There is no way to know precisely how a player will perform, but looking at the on-the-field factors that are involved helps us make a much more educated guess.

It also helps to see what a player is likely to cost to sign. For instance, MLB Trade Rumors projects Bruce at just 3/$39, which is far below their 6/$150 estimate for Martinez. Martinez will likely turn out to be the better player, but Bruce might turn into the better bargain.

Personally I wouldn't sign either of them.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4188/bob-nightengale-winter-meetings#ixzz515w9UELm

[rxmeister]

Not sure what the Giants will wind up doing if anything. Seems like they’ll go the trade route, but everyone seems to want Heliot Ramos. To be honest I’d trade him for Ozuna but not Santana. The Giants are talking about of both sides of their mouth here, and I’d be disgusted if I were a season ticket holder who renewed. They claimed it wasn’t a rebuild, yet they’re certainly heading that way. It’s weird to go from being all in on Stanton to doing nothing because they didn’t get him. I know they made an offer for Billy Hamilton, who they shouldn’t even want, but the Reds viewed it as not enough. Maybe things will clear up on day three of the meetings, but they’re looking like they’re not in on any major free agents snd not deathly afraid of the luxury tax. Rebuilding doesn’t work if you have a terrible farm system.

[rog]

Not sure what the Giants will wind up doing if anything. Seems like they’ll go the trade route, but everyone seems to want Heliot Ramos. To be honest I’d trade him for Ozuna but not Santana.


Rog -- My initial thought is that's a good call. Ozuna is a much better fielder, and he appears to be a better hitter as well. Santana strikes out too much, although surprisingly for a power hitter, he seldom goes outside the zone.

Regarding Ramos, he appears to have a high ceiling but perhaps a low floor. He's one of the most athletic players in the organization, and in his first season in organized ball he hit extremely well at the age of 17. Too many strikeouts and not nearly enough walks though.

Trading him even for Ozuna is a risk, but I think I too would do so. For a power hitter, Marcell strikes out very little, and he hits the ball hard. I don't expect him to hit .312 again, and I'm far from sure he'll again hit 37 homers. Marcell likely had a career year, but it was a very good one. Very likely better than Santana will cobble together.

Santana did have exceptional power on his fly balls. In 2017 more than three out of every 10 fly balls he hit went out. That is likely unsustainable. Both players hit more ground balls than one would expect from a power hitter.

.

Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4188/bob-nightengale-winter-meetings#ixzz519FWCXxq

[rog]

Rebuilding doesn’t work if you have a terrible farm system.


Rog -- The Giants do have Ramos and Luis Gonzalez's kid. They have the #2 overall pick in next year's draft. They also have players they could trade for good prospects.

But your point is a good one.

So what the Giants have is a team that is too little talent at both the major league and minor league levels and a payroll too high to give them a lot of room to correct the situation. Oh, and a park that discourages power hitters from signing with them.

No matter which way they turn, whether rebuilding or retooling, they face a steep task. I would look at signing Todd Frazier, since he appears to be a player who could be traded if they decide to rebuild. Look for prudent trades this winter, but be prepared to go into next season mostly intact. The period leading up to the trade deadline will likely determine whether it is more prudent to rebuild or retool.

They could be either significant buyers at the deadline or fire sellers. Or, sadly, they could be caught in the vast morass of mediocrity -- just good enough to fool themselves. In the latter case, they could perhaps buy themselves enough time to continue the evaluation.

But by next winter at the latest I think it is critical that they learn and understand what they are and react accordingly. Right now I would be looking for assets that could help out in 2018 but could also be traded if the Giants decide to rebuild.

Become flexible and agile in their approach.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4188/bob-nightengale-winter-meetings?page=1#ixzz519JklRUp

[rog]

Mark is probably right about Billy Hamilton. Hamilton fits the mold some are looking for in speed and defense, but he just can't get on base -- especially against southpaws, which makes him in essence yet another left-handed hitter.

To some extent, Billy is a non-hitting example of the earlier version of Denard Span.

Let's hope that we're in an X-Files atmosphere and that the answers are out there. If so, they're elusive.