as I said..

[klaiggeb]

All of a sudden, the Dodgers seem to be the front runners in the Stanton race.

Which is precisely where I said he'd land.

Swell.

If we don't get him I don't want him where he can hurt us.

boly

[rog]

Three teams are said to be lurking in the Stanton chase. The Dodgers could certainly be one of them. One thing to keep in mind is that if the Dodgers want Giancarlo, and he wants to play for the team he apparently grew up rooting for, they will get him. If Stanton really wants to play for them and only them if he is to leave the Marlins, he can play for the Dodgers in what might -- since he has final say -- turn out to be a sweetheart deal for LA that might not even take place until sometime down the road.

So why would the Dodgers want Stanton? The same reason virtually every team would want him if money were no object: He's a tremendous power hitter without being a defensive liability. It's pretty clear the only reason not to jump at an opportunity to acquire Giancarlo is the nearly $300 million he can command.

They have at least $70 million in salaries expiring at the end of the 2018 season, and they have players who would bring a return if traded this season. (Forsythe and Puig come to mind.)

So why wouldn't they trade for Stanton?

The obvious reason is the money. While they have shown they can afford to pay it, their stated goal is to reduce payroll now. Believe it or not, their Opening Day payroll in 2017 was $30 million less than in 2015.

A second reason is their stated desire since their ownership took over was to develop from within. Right now they're doing an excellent job of it and have one of the richest farm systems of any team.

A third reason is that they already have a deep outfield, with good outfield prospects on the way. Alex Verdugo is a top 100 prospect who hit .314/.825 in AAA last season and was voted to have the best arm in all of AAA. (Note: There seems to be a pattern developing here with the arms of Verdugo, Yasiel Pulg and Stanton.) Hector Ramos returned from injury to bat .351/.943 in AA and AAA. (Note: Ramos would likely start in the Giants' outfield in 2018 if he were in their system instead of the Dodgers'.)

A fourth reason is that 2017 surprise Chris Taylor can play all over the diamond, but the Dodgers already have almost too many players for him to do so on a regular basis.

In other words, the Dodgers are already loaded, have been reducing payroll, and want to add on to their strength with their kids. Stanton would get in the way of those stated and delivered goals.

I would give the Giants the best shot -- unless as Boly mentioned but which I don't think is a foregone conclusion, the Dodgers want Stanton. If the Dodgers want him badly enough, it's all over but the shouting -- almost before the shouting has begun.

[klaiggeb]

I hope you're right about reasons NOT to have him end up with LA.... But I live down in this dump that's called Southern California, and I see what they're writing, saying and doing.

As I said a week ago, it was, at the time, BELIEVED, that LA had no interest in him... which is why I said they'd end up with him.

Which I still predict they will.


They have the highest payroll in baseball, I believe, or if not the highest, then the 2nd highest, and they don't seem to care how much they spend.

To get a guy who could hit 50+ HRs... Taylor and the rest become flotsam; excess baggage.

As to Puig, I hope they KEEP the clown.

He's a clubhouse cancer.

They stop winning, and Mr. Selfish starts whining and bitching again.

He appeared to have gotten better 'this year,' but I contend that was an illusion.

What he really is, is still there.

We saw it in the post season; slamming his glove to the ground like a 4 year old in the outfield, and other such nonsense at the plate, like throwing his bat so the crowd could see 'just how mad' he was.

He signs with LA...and we, and the entire west, baring injury to him, are screwed...and screwed for years to come.

boly

[Islandboagie]

Not exactly. The Dodgers will have to give up something to get him. The Marlins would probably want Ballinger or Seager included in the deal, which means the Dodgers wouldn't do the deal or they wouldn't necessarily become that much better.

As for the Giants, I know we'd be much better off going with a different plan.

I'm intrigued by this Japanese fella. We need pitching and good outfielders. Wouldn't getting this guy solve two problems at once? It's certainly something to think about.

[rog]

Not exactly. The Dodgers will have to give up something to get him. The Marlins would probably want Ballinger or Seager included in the deal, which means the Dodgers wouldn't do the deal or they wouldn't necessarily become that much better.


Rog -- The Marlins would LOVE to have Clay Bellinger of Corey Seager, but then again there was a time when I would have LOVED to have Racquel Welch. (She still looks pretty good at the age of 77!)

Why would the Dodgers give up Bellinger of Seager? The Marlins are said to be trying to cut their payroll to $90 million, and they'll almost certainly have to trade Stanton to do so. If Stanton decides the Dodgers are the team he wants to go to, the Dodgers have the leverage.

Let's suppose Stanton tells the Marlins he'll take a trade only to LA or San Francisco. Without touching stars such as untouchables Bellinger and Seager, the Dodgers have better prospects to give up than the Giants.

A lesser but still impressive two-way candidate is #19 overall prospect Brendan McKay, a first baseman who was considered by some to be the best

And while the Giants are said to be (or at least have been) the leader for Stanton's services, they are in that position not because of what they can offer, but due to the salary they are said to be able to absorb. Think the Dodgers could afford to take on as much salary as the Giants would if the Dodgers truly want Stanton?

MLB.com ranks Christian Arroyo as the Giants' top prospect at #56 overall. The Dodgers have Walker (Day Off) Beuhler at #10, Alex Verdugo at #23, and Yadier Alvarez at #45. The Marlins are said to want young pitching. Beuhler is ranked the #2 pitching prospect, with Alvarez sliding in as the #17 pitcher.

Why would the Dodgers give up Bellinger or Seager, both of whom were excellent hitters last season and aren't eligible to become free agents for six and four years respectively?

If the Dodgers are serious about getting Stanton, the Giants might concentrate on Martinez (a salary question as is Stanton, but without the opt out unless he is able to negotiate it) or Ohtani, who would be the best move if the Giants can get him. The Giants have spent almost all their international money already, but it is subsequent contracts -- not the original one -- that will be most important to Ohtani.

And money doesn't seem to be as important to Ohtani as most. In Japan, he lives not in luxury but in his team's dorm. Ohtani is today's Babe Ruth in that he is both a great pitcher and a great hitter. Frankly the most natural place for him to play would seem to be the American League where, unlike the Babe, he could conceivably play every day, including pitching every fifth. Ohtani has the potential to become the best player in major league history.

Maybe Ohtani is a traditionalist. The Giants signed the first Japanese player in the major leaguer, southpaw reliever Masanori Murakami. Murakami went 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA and nine saves in two seasons (1964 and 1965) with the Giants before returning to Japan.

On a lesser two-way-player note, the Rays drafted left-hander Brendan McKay with the fourth overall pick in last year's draft. Considered by some to be the best hitter in college in 2017, McKay is also a pitcher of some note. A bit of a disappointment with a .232/.727 batting average in short-season A ball last summer, he nonetheless drew 22 walks in 149 plate appearances, showing a good eye and perhaps a lot of respect from opposing pitchers.

It was as a pitcher McKay shone brighter, posting a 1.80 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 20 innings.

At the University of Louisville, McKay posted ERA's of 1.77, 2.30 and 2.56, pitching mostly as a starter. He hit .308/.849, .333/.927 and .341/1.116.

I'm not certain of this, but I believe one of the top prospects for the 2018 draft is a two-way player.



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[rog]

The Giants are said to be a "dark horse" in the Shohei Otani sweepstakes, with the Yankees, Dodgers and Rangers considered to be the leaders. In that circumstance, the Yankees might be the team to beat. They once had a two-way star themselves. (Babe Ruth likely would have made the Hall of Fame as a pitcher had he not switched to right field.)

The Giants have $1.8 million -- not the $300K I previously mentioned -- to offer Otani, and while still low for a player of Otani's huge potential, that is considered to be a plus. San Francisco has an important Japanese population.

The signing of Ohtani will be different than any before him. His agents sent out a questionnaire to each of the 30 teams. The questions ranged from "detailed information on athletic training and player-development practices, along with cultural-assimilation programs," according to MLB.com columnist Jon Morosi. (Morosi is a columnist, not a reporter, but I think we can still trust those facts."

According to Morosi, "There's no way of knowing what he will choose to do," a major league executive said.

Otani is a 23-year-old right-hander who bats from the left side. He has five years of professional experience in Japan.

Giancarlo Stanton might generate more buzz, but IMO Otani is the guy to get. That might be a little more of a possibility than I realized, although I'm still not sure why Otani wouldn't go to the American League, where he might become a legend.

Heck, he might become a legend even in the National League, and we know the best town in that league is San Francisco!

[Islandboagie]

Rog- Frankly the most natural place for him to play would seem to be the American League where, unlike the Babe, he could conceivably play every day, including pitching every fifth.

Boagie- I've heard that argument many times, but it doesn't fly with me. You're not going to want your pitcher to take 4 or 5 at-bats the day after he threw 100+ pitches whether he's in the field or DHing. So I think both leagues have a chance at him, if he agrees to take a day off the day before and day after his starts. I would be shocked if any team allowed him to play EVERY game, that would be stupid.

[rog]

I would be shocked if any team allowed him to play EVERY game, that would be stupid.


Rog -- Why would it be? Let's ask our resident pitching expert, Boly. I see no reason it couldn't be done.

And let's suppose he sat out the day after he pitched. He could still get into over 130 games.

I'm not saying the Giants don't have a shot, but if I were Otani (Ohtani), I would take a shot at becoming a singular player with a shot at becoming the best ever.

In 2016, Ohtani played in 104 games, pitching in 21 of them (20 starts). He had 382 plate appearances. Coincidentally, 98 years earlier Babe Ruth has the same 382 plate appearances while pitching 166 innings. And obviously Babe didn't have the luxury of being a DH.

I could see some possibility of not being able to play the outfield the day after pitching, but why would being the DH interfere? Boly, I yield to your expertise.

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[Islandboagie]

I would be shocked if any team allowed him to play EVERY game, that would be stupid.


Rog -- Why would it be? Let's ask our resident pitching expert, Boly. I see no reason it couldn't be done.

Boagie- Really? You see no reason why a player can't pitch every 5th day and hit every day he's not pitching? No reason that might become an issue? I suppose it COULD happen, but to say you see no reason why it couldn't be done is not being realistic.

[rog]

Boagie- Really? You see no reason why a player can't pitch every 5th day and hit every day he's not pitching? No reason that might become an issue? I suppose it COULD happen, but to say you see no reason why it couldn't be done is not being realistic.


Rog -- What is that reason? Unless I missed it, you haven't provided it yet, have you?

When you said he would solve both a pitching problem and an outfield issue, I assumed you meant by solving the outfield thing he would play there four out of five games. If we're looking at his playing only three out of every five games there, that seems a partial solution at best.

Perhaps Boly would be able to tell us more about whether a pitcher could pitch every fifth day and DH -- or even play the outfield or first base -- the other days.

My guess is that whether he can play every day (or close to it), Ohtani would like to.

[donk33]

Nov 28, 2017 15:18:32 GMT -5 rog said:

The Giants are said to be a "dark horse" in the Shohei Otani sweepstakes, with the Yankees, Dodgers and Rangers considered to be the leaders. In that circumstance, the Yankees might be the team to beat. They once had a two-way star themselves. (Babe Ruth likely would have made the Hall of Fame as a pitcher had he not switched to right field.)

 dk...the Giants had Clint Hartung....not a Ruth, but a guy  whose numbers would look fairly good in todays game....

[rog]

This from SB Nation:


That Otani is an elite hitter as well as pitcher (he can also play outfield, too) isn't the sole reason that MLB teams want him, but it's definitely intriguing. And Otani has said it's something he wants to continue doing if at all possible. Even his soon-to-be-former manager and team owner in Japan want him to keep pitching and hitting. But Otani knows it's not a sure thing. In the press conference he gave a few days ago, he said that he hopes MLB teams will be open to it, and he wants to hear what they have to say.

Realistically, the only way Otani can really continue to be a two-way player is if he pitches and becomes a designated hitter. It's hard to imagine a world in which any team would allow their superstar pitcher to play the outfield on a regular basis when he's not on the mound.

[rog]

dk...the Giants had Clint Hartung....not a Ruth, but a guy whose numbers would look fairly good in todays game....


Rog -- I had forgotten about Clint, who was kind of a wunderkind, wasn't he Don? But Clint posted a 5.02 ERA and a .238 batting average and was little more than a replacement player.

I think he came pretty highly touted, didn't he? I see his career was interrupted by the war, which couldn't have helped him much.




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[Islandboagie]

Rog -- What is that reason? Unless I missed it, you haven't provided it yet, have you?

When you said he would solve both a pitching problem and an outfield issue, I assumed you meant by solving the outfield thing he would play there four out of five games. If we're looking at his playing only three out of every five games there, that seems a partial solution at best.


Boagie- The reason why teams would shy away from him playing EVERY game is obviously the increased chance of him getting injured. Pitchers need to rest their pitching arms to be able to go out there four or five games later. Taking at bats during that period when a pitcher should be resting his arm would increase the chances of that pitcher burning out, or getting injured. It may work for him in Japan, but if I'm correct, I believe Japan's baseball seasons are considerably shorter.

You make a very good point about what I claimed to be a solution in the outfield. He wouldn't be out there that much, but the problem isn't necessarily just the outfield, it's the lack of hitters anywhere. If we take my theory of 2/5 games in the outfield, that still gets him in the lineup about 100 games, give or take. That would be a considerable contribution, at least enough for the Giants to have serious interest.

As I said before, I am intrigued. If he can throw 100mph and is the best hitter in Japan, then I think he would obviously be a great asset for a team that needs pitching and hitting.

[rog]

Boagie- The reason why teams would shy away from him playing EVERY game is obviously the increased chance of him getting injured. Pitchers need to rest their pitching arms to be able to go out there four or five games later. Taking at bats during that period when a pitcher should be resting his arm would increase the chances of that pitcher burning out, or getting injured.


Rog -- Clearly, injury risk would have to be considered, and I could see how that would mitigate against Ohtani's playing a position every day, since that would involve throwing (although if he were to play, say, first base, he could focus on not throwing hard). But how tough on the arm is it to DH?

Worst case, couldn't an American League team give him an extra day's rest as a pitcher to offset any recovery problem DH'ing would require?

I'd still like to hear from Boly, who likely himself both pitched and played, perhaps sometimes on a regular basis in each situation.

Your point that Ohtani might contribute a lot even if he were able to hit in only 100 or so games is a good one. If he were able to extend that to say 140 or so by DH'ing, he might become the most valuable player in the game's history. Even at 100 games, he might be the most valuable.

But let's get Boly's perspective on the matter.




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[klaiggeb]

Rog: To answer you question about "why" they wouldn't play him every day; Simple; Money. It's that complicated and that simple

The wear and tear on the arm, alone, would prevent any team from taking a chance.

The day AFTER a starter pitches, and I speak from first hand knowledge, your arm feels like it's just hanging there.

You do some light tossing to work out the kinks, but that's it.

To have to MAKE.

[klaiggeb]

...FAT FINGERS!!!!!

I'll finish my statement. To have to MAKE strong, long throws from the outfield would be risking injury, and thus flushing a lot of money down the toilet when the pitcher's laid up.

It would be possible to play the outfield the 2nd or 3rd day, but again, not advisable.

Also there is SOOO MUCH WORK going on BETWEEN starts simple keeping the arm slot and maintaining rhythm.

Sure, you can do it in college and high school when there are days between games.

But not in the show.

boly

[klaiggeb]

Rog-That Otani is an elite hitter....

***boly says ***

From reports I heard today, that is NOT true. Not even close.

His best position is on the mound where he's more polished, but he STILL lacks command.


Scouts are not sure if he'll ever be that dramatic here.

But they ARE more sure he'd be a top of the rotation guy regardless of his command issues.

boly

[Islandboagie]

I get the same feeling, Boly, I can't say I know, because I don't know that much about the guy, but I'd imagine the 100 mph fastball is the main focus from the teams with interest.

[klaiggeb]

I was just reporting what a number of scouts who have been watching him, said, Boagie.

I haven't seen him.

[klaiggeb]

Interesting report this morning on ESPN radio.

Stanton CAN hold Miami for ransom JUST AS Rodriguez did when he was with Texas.

He wanted to go to Boston first, Yankees second.

He kept vetoing ALL deals that would send him ANYWHERE else until finally, he had Texas backed into a corner; a corner from which THEY ended up paying something like 36 million still owed to him because they had no other choice.

IF, they report said, Stanton REALLY wants to go to LA, he can keep saying NO, until HE gets the deal HE wants where Miami, conceivably, takes it up the shorts.

Swell.

We're so screwed IF this is the case.

boly

[donk33]

Nov 28, 2017 23:55:12 GMT -5 rog said:

dk...the Giants had Clint Hartung....not a Ruth, but a guy whose numbers would look fairly good in todays game....


Rog -- I had forgotten about Clint, who was kind of a wunderkind, wasn't he Don? But Clint posted a 5.02 ERA and a .238 batting average and was little more than a replacement player.

dk..Clint had 2 fair years as a hitter ...and 2 as a pitcher...he had some great tools but was really rushed into the majors.. and with a lot of hype


I think he came pretty highly touted, didn't he? I see his career was interrupted by the war, which couldn't have helped him much.

dk...if I remember right, he was discovered in the service....so was I, but I never got past my regiment team.....the only competition was Dave Koslo, Bill Kennedy (?) and 13 other guys that belonged to major league teams... I was also discovered as a 3B on my company softball team...only got up to my regiment team and years later played in one of  the top softball teams in the country...Rochester Major League....Kodak Park, from this league, had 2 of the first guys voted into the Softball HOF...Rusty Gears and Castle (?)...Fast pitch soft ball has died out in SoCal...but it was a good game to play....


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[donk33]

Some other guys that played a position and also pitched in the majors were Johnny McCarthy, a Giants. first baseman who pitched one game...Jack Harshman, another Giants first baseman who went to the White Sox and won 14 games in his first year....Johnny Cooney played the outfield and pitched for 9 years and he played the outfield 11 years after giving up pitching..he played until he was 43...Bucky Walters was a regular 3B who became an ace pitcher for the Reds...Johnny Lindall, pitcher turned outfielder for the Yanks....

There were a slew of guys in the majors who failed as position players and went back to the minors, some as managers, and ended up doing some pitching...I tried out for a Giants' farm team and pitched to Al Gardella who was 2 for 26 as a 1B in the majors and was 1B in the low minors and also did some pitching.....

[rog]

Ohtani may not be as good a hitter as I thought (and may struggle initially against faster MLB pitching, but here is something I read about him today:

Ohtani’s swing is extremely balanced; while in the load position, his hands are directly over his back foot. As he shifts forward, his hips and torso move in concert with his lower body; even as his front leg kicks up, his hip stay parallel to the ground, creating balance. This balance means Ohtani is able to control the transfer of his weight forward, keeping his front foot parallel to the plate; when you hear about hitters “staying closed” vs. “leaking open,” that’s what this means. (If you want to see an example of what “leaking open” looks like by a left-handed batter, look at either Brandon Belt or Joey Gallo; for the exact inverse, look at Corey Seager, who stays so closed he’s practically pigeon-toed.) He locks the front leg in right at the point of contact, creating a stable base for his swing without robbing his momentum by locking in too early. This balance allows Ohtani to look that ball all the way in, only dropping his head at the last moment, which aids in pitch recognition and is probably part of the reason Ohtani is exceptionally good at handling off-speed pitches for such a young player.

My thinking, Boly, is that with your knowledge of hitting mechanics, you might want to look at video of him and tell us what you think.

Don't just go by the reports you HEARD. Those guys are journalists!

[rog]

Did I understand you correctly, Boly, that with the exception of perhaps the next day after pitching, Ohtani should be able to DH every day?

I don't know how good he'll be as a hitter, but he's hit .322 and .332 the past two seasons. The swing he studies most is Bryce Harper's, although I saw his swing compared more to Ken Griffey Jr.'s.

[rog]

IF, they report said, Stanton REALLY wants to go to LA, he can keep saying NO, until HE gets the deal HE wants where Miami, conceivably, takes it up the shorts.

Swell.

We're so screwed IF this is the case.


Rog -- You may have just seen a report, but we've been talking about this for days if not weeks. His no-trade could work to the Giants' advantage. Not if the Dodgers enter the fray, but if they are truly trying to cut back on payroll -- and they did cut $30 million since 2015 -- the Giants might be the team of his choice.

As for Miami taking it in the shorts, just how is that possible? They signed Stanton's contract, didn't they? If they take it in the shorts, it's because they themselves exposed their bottom.



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[rog]

Offering opportunities such as no-trade contracts and opt outs allow teams to keep their contract cost down. Players would usually sacrifice those things in exchange for more money.

If a player has a no-trade contract, that means he wants to play for your team, doesn't it? And maybe not have to uproot his family?

By the way, it is being said that part of the free agent logjam this fall is that teams are waiting, believing prices will come down. Nobody holds a gun to the teams' heads. I'm unsure why we think the teams would take it in the shorts.

Not that I think they take it in the longs either. Or the long johns. And I won't get into longs inside of shorts.

[rog]

.if I remember right, he was discovered in the service..


Rog -- Clint made it as far as AA in 1942 before entering the service.




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[rog]

Part of an article by Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports:

In a sampling of pitching coaches, general managers, scouts and players, the most common opinion was that it would be very difficult to play both ways in today’s game. And, also, that it would be incredibly cool if Ohtani could pull it off. And that they’d like to watch him try.

There are dozens of reasons the true two-way player came and went, by and large, with Babe Ruth. There is, perhaps, one reason for its return, and that is Shohei Ohtani. A general manager out there somewhere will outline a plan that is appealing to Ohtani, and a field manager will implement that plan, and a roster will have to be adjusted, and perhaps a rotation too, and then, as Rick Ankiel said, the success of the plan will depend on how good Ohtani is.


Note: I think the DH position changes the equation. Actually throwing every day in a game would cause a challenge for a starting pitcher, but the DH doesn't have to throw.

[donk33]

Nov 29, 2017 22:28:12 GMT -5 rog said:

.if I remember right, he was discovered in the service..


Rog -- Clint made it as far as AA in 1942 before entering the service.

dk...Clint played one year in the minors...mostly in class C, he was also up with Minn. for a few games. Minn. was a AA team...and not a Giants farm team.....The 3 AA Leagues soon became AAA. Clint played in the minors in '42 when baseball was losing players to the service or war jobs to avoid the draft.... he was spotted by someone in the Giants org. while in the service and was signed as a free agent....I never remember anyone talking about his stint in the minors... we had a guy with great tools on my army team but I never heard about him after I got out of the army...what a waste of talent...


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