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Defense
Nov 26, 2017 10:24:07 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Nov 26, 2017 10:24:07 GMT -5
Okay, Rog, here's your opportunity to show me first hand how Stanton plays defense based upon the Fielding Bible.
How does Giancarlo's defense stack up against the defense of Span and Pence over the last 2 seasons?
I ask because I haven't seen enough of Stanton to know whether or not he CAN play RF for us.
From what I remember, I say, no way!
But I've tee'd one up for you.
show me, please.
boly
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Nov 26, 2017 12:59:03 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 26, 2017 12:59:03 GMT -5
I appreciate the 85 mph fastball down the middle, Boly. Any faster than that, and I wouldn't be able to hit it. (Well, maybe in truth it would probably need to be about 45 mph at this point.)
I'm going to go after this one six different ways:
1. Eye test
2. Bill James Handbook
3. Baseball Video Scouts, who watch every game multiple times.
4. Strat-O-Matic founder Hal Richman.
5. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)
6. Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR)
1. I think my eyes are a pretty good judge, although I'm certainly not infallible -- especially in a small sample. I see it as Giancarlo first, Hunter second and Span third. Obviously I've seen far more of Hunter and Denard than of Giancarlo. I chose Giancarlo #1 in great part because Hunter and Denard are so bad and also because I saw that Giancarlo was positioned about as far off the right field line at AT&T as anyone I've seen and didn't have a problem with the line (although he might not have been tested).
Speedwise it's Hunter, Span and Giancarlo. But as we know, jump, route to the ball and hands all come into play as well.
Arm-wise it's obvious that it's Stanton, Pence and Span. I would say Stanton has a plus arm, possibly even plus plus. I've always felt Hunter's arm was a little light for right field, but not atrocious, which belongs solely to Span.
Put it all together, and I go with Giancarlo as clearly first, Hunter a clear second and Span not spanning enough ground.
2. Bill Jones Handbook, which uses a dozen sources including John Dewan (who consider the top expert on fielding) and Baseball Video Scouts. Here is their ranking this past season: Stanton #5 in right field. Hunter no votes in right. Span no votes in center. Here is their ranking in 2016: Stanton #11 in right field. Hunter #18 (tie) in right. Denard no votes in center.
3. Baseball Video Scouts (I trust them more than any other single source, myself included.) Past season: Giancarlo #4. No votes for either Hunter or Denard. 2016: No votes for any of the trio.
4. Hal Richman (I guess Boly should trust him a bit.) Past season: Giancarlo #10. No votes for either Hunter or Denard. 2016: Possible vote for Giancarlo at #9. (I can't be sure.) No votes for either Hunter or Denard. A cautionary note from Hal: His rankings here might differ from those he uses for Strat-O-Matic, since his votes here are done before the season is over.
5. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) Stanton -- Last season: 10. 2016: 4. Pence -- Last season: (minus-3). 2016: (minus-3). Span -- Last season: (minus-27) 2016: (minus-7).
6. Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) Stanton -- Last season: 6.7. 2016: (minus-1.4). Pence -- Last season: 1.1. 2016: 2.2. Span -- Last season: (minus-7.5). 2016: (minus-8.1).
Putting it all together, it's very clearly Stanton, Hunter, Span. Stanton is the slowest of the three (although he's not slow), but he gets to balls better and likely has better hands.
One thing that is nice here is that even if I hadn't seen Stanton at all, I could feel fairly confident that he is better than Hunter and Denard based on the evaluations I have read.
Next time, please don't throw the fastball even 50 mph!
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Nov 27, 2017 11:01:53 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Nov 27, 2017 11:01:53 GMT -5
Huh. Most appreciated, Rog.
But not exactly what I was expecting, which isn't a bad thing.
I must admit that the data you acquired pretty much told me what my eyes had told me; that Hunter was just this side of Marvin Benard-terrible, and Span was even worse.
Still my question to myself remains; COULD Giancarlo play our RF at an acceptable level, and it seems that, marginally, yes.
As to Hal Richman, I do trust him. I reference him frequently, as I did recently explaining how HE rated DJ and Giancarlo.
DJ was never better than a 4 on a 1-4 scale, and Stanton was frequently a 3, which is average.
Thanks again, Roger!
boly
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Defense
Nov 27, 2017 15:21:54 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 27, 2017 15:21:54 GMT -5
If you haven't noticed, I'm not sold on the Mike Stanton trade idea. But, a high profile guy like Stanton will force Pence to left field, so that does garner a checkmark in the pros column for me.
Pence is not a bad outfielder, but he's not good anymore, and he was never great. Even back in 2012 I wanted Pence in LF and Blanco in RF, but Bochy's stubbornness prevented that move from happening, and he hasn't wavered throughout the years. Hopefully now that it's an undeniably glaring issue a move will be made regardless if we get Stanton or not, but I'm not holding my breath. Afterall, It took almost a year and a half for Torres to steal the centerfielder job from Rowand, even though Torres proved early on he was a better centerfielder and leadoff hitter.
So, while I'd love to see Stanton in the lineup, I think we'd do better defensively with another CF type player in RF. We're not going to be an offensive powerhouse even if we get Stanton, and we'll still not have a very good outfield defense.
I'd like to see Pence in LF, Lorenzo Cain in CF and Duggar/Parker in RF.
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Nov 27, 2017 17:06:15 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Nov 27, 2017 17:06:15 GMT -5
You're right about Bochy being stubborn, boagie. But after Blanco left, I don't think he had other options especially after Parker broke his collar bone.
And I think you mean GIANCARLO Stanton. Mike Stanton, if I recall, was a LH reliever.
I like Cain in CF... but we've got a HUGE power outtage if that's what happens.
Plus we'd have TREMENDOUS holes in the line up.
Who bats 1 hole?
Who hits 3 hole?
So let's suppose Duggar sticks. A huge supposition, but one I'D like to see happen.
Duggar Panik Cain (?) Posey Pence? Belt? Belt?Pence? Crawford 3B
That line up scares NO ONE.
It doesn't even contain ONE 20 HR potential guy.
Posey hasn't been that guy for a while, and Belt, while he's "shown" that he "can" do it... hasn't.
I'm still on the fence about Stanton, but we NEED to make a big splash to even BE ABLE to compete.
boly
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Nov 27, 2017 22:39:35 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 27, 2017 22:39:35 GMT -5
I see too much risk with Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton. I'm looking at J.D. Martinez now, although on a seven-year contract he would have a lot of risk too. J.D. is two years older than Mike, so he'd be only one year younger at the end of his contract than (Giancarlo Will Be Like) Mike will be at the end of his, although Mike's new name may be long enough to add a year on by itself.
Fan Graphs has estimates for Just Dynamite's contract at anywhere from 5/$103 to 6/$156. I'd bite on the former. (Some here say I just plain bite!)
MLB Trade Rumors has J.D. going to the Red Sox at 6/$150. That might free up Jackie Bradley Jr. (They call him JBJ) for trade. He's a darn good center fielder, but clearly the Giants need more than a center fielder, just as they need more than Stanton or Martinez.
Some have mentioned Brandon Belt straight up for JBJ, and that could have merit, freeing up salary. But there are a ton of first basemen available, so this is an unlucky time to be trading Brandon. Between Brandon's health concerns and the glut of available first basemen, he may be virtually untradeable at the moment.
As we've said all along, the answers aren't easy. But the logjam on moves should break up within a couple of weeks.
One under-the-radar signing that looks like a bargain is Doug Fister. Doug's fastball added 2 mph last season. Same with Tyler Chatwood, a guy I think we almost all like. Trade Rumors projects Chatwood at 3/$20, which shouldn't be able to be accomplished without a mask. But perhaps his acquiring team could borrow a mask from the Rangers, who are signing Fister for 2018 at $3.5 million, with a one year $4.5 million option for 2019. The option has a $500K buyout, making the total value of the contract at least $4.0 million.
Fister is NOT a Four A player. He has the potential to be one of the steals of the draft, and his price tag was quite reasonable. The Giants should be able to attract free agent pitchers.
They may attract (Whatever his name is) Stanton in trade. But while I would love the excitement of such a move, I think the tasty trade carries both a risk of getting hungry again soon (three years), plus the possibility of being bloated over the seven seasons after that.
Maybe we should simply take two aspirin and wake up in four months. Otherwise, the risk of indigestion may be high. Wouldn't it be better just to GET high and pull a Rip Van Winkle?
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Nov 27, 2017 22:41:26 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 27, 2017 22:41:26 GMT -5
By the way, Boly, you teed it up, but you didn't tell me if I knocked it out of the park, fouled it back or merely fouled up.
Barbara says if I did anything but foul it up, she wouldn't recognize me. I represent that statement!
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Nov 27, 2017 22:44:29 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 27, 2017 22:44:29 GMT -5
I guess you did tell me how I did, Boly. Between Hunter Pence and Denard Span! You and I have pretty much agreed on the defense of those two. I heard Denard was arrested and when charged said "I have no defense."
Especially if the prosecutor was left-handed!
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Nov 27, 2017 22:48:39 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 27, 2017 22:48:39 GMT -5
I predict Hal will rate Stanton a "2" this year. He might drop Hunter all the way down to 4 (probably 3 though IMO, unless he's watched enough footage to truly know!), and the only way I can see Denard not getting a 5 is if Hal adds a 6.
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Nov 28, 2017 2:23:14 GMT -5
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Post by Islandboagie on Nov 28, 2017 2:23:14 GMT -5
Boly- And I think you mean GIANCARLO Stanton. Mike Stanton, if I recall, was a LH reliever.
Boagie- You're correct, but Giancarlo was also Mike before he decided to change it.
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Nov 28, 2017 10:27:57 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Nov 28, 2017 10:27:57 GMT -5
Seriously, boagie? His name WAS Mike?
boly
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Nov 28, 2017 13:27:51 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 28, 2017 13:27:51 GMT -5
I'm surprised you forgot that, Boly. I know it took me a while to get used to Giancarlo and I even wondered why he changed.
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Nov 28, 2017 13:32:10 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Nov 28, 2017 13:32:10 GMT -5
Heck, boagie, if I didn't have my name written on the badge I have to wear at school, I'd likely forget my own name! boly
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Nov 28, 2017 13:51:26 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 28, 2017 13:51:26 GMT -5
This post was originally about defense, and one of the plays in the MLB top 100 of 2017 demonstrated something important to me.
We've almost all wondered when we see a great running catch or a diving play if as great as the play was, another fielder would have been able to get to it much more easily. We probably think of that even more when such a potential great play is just missed.
So how do we know? Unless we are a scout watching that particular fielder and not the ball at the crack of the bat, we don't know if the player got a great jump or not if we're at the ballpark. We can judge how quickly he is getting to the ball, but not so closely that we can know if another fielder might have gotten there even inches quicker, which can be enough to make the difference between an out and a triple.
If his route is slightly off, it's tough to see with the naked eye, especially unless we have a really good angle. So how can we know if a "great" play resulted from a great jump or from a player who is simply overcoming a poor jump?
I felt that the MLB Network showed an answer in what appeared to be a spectacular catch (a backhanded dive to snag the ball just before it hit the turf for what would have been at least a double) by one of the best outfielders in the business (Byron Buxton). The clip showed that Buxton had a 24%! chance to make the play. How could that be, given that Buxton is one of the fastest player in baseball, quite possibly the fastest? He had a one in four chance of making the play? Seriously?
But if one took a broader look, Buxton got a poor jump on the ball. The play looked great -- and Buxton certainly makes his fair share of great plays -- but on this play the effort wasn't nearly as great as it looked. If Buxton had gotten a better jump, he might have made the play easily. Other, slower players who got a better jump might have made the play too, some of them making the play look a lot easier.
So now we can judge defense more accurately than with the naked eye -- if we are blessed to have information that usually isn't available to the general public. I've seen it on TV occasionally and in a few clips. (The Buxton clip is the only one among the top 100 plays I've seen that provided that information.)
It is possible that one day the information will be up on the scoreboard at the park. Think of all the information that is already there that wasn't on the scoreboard when we were kids.
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Nov 28, 2017 14:03:51 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 28, 2017 14:03:51 GMT -5
There was a time when Hunter Pence was considered one of the top defensive right fielders. He's still quite fast, and we know he'll hustle to make every play he can.
What seems to have happened is that Hunter no longer gets good jumps on a lot of plays. And his hands seemed to have hardened. The situation has worsened over the years, but I don't think Hunter was much better than an average outfielder -- if that -- even back when he first came to the Giants. I think Hunter is a player whose hustle made him appear better defensively than he truly was.
As an aside, how many of us remember that after being acquired from the Phillies at the 2012 trade deadline, Hunter hit .219 the rest of the season? And that he hit .210 in the postseason?
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Nov 28, 2017 14:10:12 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 28, 2017 14:10:12 GMT -5
How much of a jump would we consider to be the reaction time and how much the direction of the jump? If the fielder breaks in the wrong direction, that's pretty obvious, but how about if he merely takes less than the most direct route to the ball, which is often the case with Hunter?
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Nov 28, 2017 17:57:14 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 28, 2017 17:57:14 GMT -5
I forgot to mention something kind of important. Buxton's 24% chance to make a play on the ball hit to left-center was based on his having to travel 54 feet in 3.6 seconds. That's 15 feet per second, which equates to a 20.0 second 100 yard dash.
Getting a jump on a fly ball while dressed in baseball gear and running on grass not a running track makes a difference. But 54 feet isn't a huge distance to cover in 3.6 seconds. No wonder the play was considered to have a 24% success rate.
Drew Stubbs made a simlar catch for the Giants last season, although he his dive didn't result in his catching the ball so close to the ground. But Stubbs, also a very fast runner, covered 74 feet in 4.0 seconds. That's 20 more feet in less than half a second. I don't think even Husain Bolt could run that fast incrementally.
Stubbs' play was considered to have a 6% success rate. In other words, it was deemed four times as tough as Buxton's catch, even though it didn't APPEAR to be as difficult.
The ability to measure how far the outfielder had to go to catch the ball versus the amount of time the ball is in the air gives us a TREMENDOUS way to evaluate how difficult a catch was. No more "he got a great jump and used his speed to get to the ball." Now it can be far more precise: "He covered 74 feet in 3.6 seconds to make a play others wouldn't be able to make 15 out of 16 times."
Would we expect the former "scouting report" or the latter to be more accurate? More precise?
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Nov 28, 2017 18:10:42 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 28, 2017 18:10:42 GMT -5
I just had a thought (which I realize is rare!) Maybe "Mike" Stanton was as originally thought, not a very good outfielder but became a good one after "renaming" himself "Giancarlo." But as far back as the 2012 season, "Whatever his name is" Stanton was ranked #7 among right fielders in the Bill James Annual.
Nineteen right fielders received votes that season. Hunter Pence wasn't among them.
We should put aside our concerns about whether Stanton is a good outfielder. I've never seen any player play as far off the right field line as Stanton. That doesn't make him a good fielder, but it does indicate he's a confident one. Confident in his range.
What we should worry about is whether the Dodgers get him -- and if the Giants did land him whether it would truly be a good move. Boagie says no, and I'm inclined to agree with him.
As we originally discussed, the Giants should focus on becoming a competitive team AFTER 2018. Getting there this upcoming season will be very difficult.
For the Giants, of course, there is this little problem called selling tickets. But working toward two or three years from now might be not only the most honest, but the best approach.
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Nov 29, 2017 23:02:05 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 29, 2017 23:02:05 GMT -5
As long as we're on defense, this is from MLB Trade Rumors about Zac Cozart and a couple of other top-fielding shortstops:
Defense has long been Cozart’s calling card. Since debuting in 2011, he ranks seventh in UZR/150 (+10.6) and 14th in Defensive Runs Saved (56) among all players in baseball with at least 6000 innings played. Among just shortstops in that same time frame, Cozart is behind only the incomparable Andrelton Simmons in both categories and also behind Brandon Crawford in DRS. Cozart would provide a massive boost to any club looking to improve its run prevention.
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Nov 29, 2017 23:52:22 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 29, 2017 23:52:22 GMT -5
These are some excerpts from The Fielding Bible Volume IV that was put out after the 2014 season. I hope they come out with another one soon, but here is some of what they said about some of the fielders we've discussed here:
Brandon Crawford: "Excels at fielding balls in play of all speeds and difficulties. Effortless and fluid. Looks good playing shortstop and possesses all the qualities scouts covet. Loudest tool is his arm, which really shines in the 5.5 hole and the pivot position on double play attempts. One of the most underrated assets in the game."
Andrelton Simmons: "Long, freakishly athletic, and extremely smooth. No question that Simmons is the best defensive shortstop in the game. (My note: This was before Brandon won the Gold Glove over Simmons in 2015.) Hands are quick, transfers flawless, and there is not another shortstop that has the arm strength he possesses. No part of his (defensive) game that is deficient."
Denard Span: (Note: This is sad, since it shows what Denard USED to be.) "It seems that no well-struck ball is a for-sure hit. Did not receive a single Defensive Misplay or Error due to a bad route in all of 2014. (Note: A precursor of things to come.) Deep flyballs that he's previously tracked down have started dropping just out of Span's reach. (Note: I've wondered about this.) Span could resurrect his defense by cheating back a step or two."
Giancarlo Stanton: "Routes were very efficient and he rarely made a poor read. Decent range for a massive outfielder, allowing him to track down challenging flyballs. Cannon, rocket, laser. Overaggressiveness leads to more mistakes than most. First in failed dives. Tied for first in mishandling base hits. Above average outfielder."
Hunter Pence: "Adept at chasing down balls in the gap. Awkward approach to fly balls toward him. 11 Defensive Misplays and Errors that involved breaking in the wrong direction, bad routes, failing to anticipate the wall, and failed dives. Not better than an average right fielder at this time."
Note: Stanton was rated above-average and Pence no better than average. And this was three years ago.
Buster Posey: "Better than average pop time. One of the best in the game with a 93 percent catcher block rate. Superb at preventing wild pitches and avoiding passed balls. Bread and butter is calling a game and getting the extra strikes. Upper echelon."
Brandon Belt: "Inability to make the big plays but is reliable. Mobile for a player of his size. Average or better."
Joe Panik: "Quick reflexes and a strong glove. Reads the ball well. Good range. Transitions from fielding to throwing quickly. Very high double play conversion rate."
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Nov 30, 2017 9:14:59 GMT -5
Post by rog on Nov 30, 2017 9:14:59 GMT -5
I'm listing this post under our "Defense" thread even though it's more about offense.
This morning I watched more of the 2017 MLB Network Prospects show. I recorded it nearly a year ago but am just finishing it now. Glad I saved it though.
It was stated here that no one expected what Cody Bellinger delivered last season, and that is correct as far as it goes. Cody was the NL Rookie of the Year and I believe set a record for homers by a rookie, even though he began the season in the minors.
But it's not as if Cody came out of nowhere either, and I suspect he was well known to our Southern California posters. He was ranked the #13 prospect entering last season and was considered both the top power hitting prospect and the prospect most likely to win a Gold Glove. It was even mentioned that he could play some left and right field, a factor that came into play almost immediately when he was called up.
Certainly the stage was set for Cody. It was mentioned here prior to the season that Adrian Gonzalez was a player in decline. Cody played some left field early, then settled in at first.
So why was Cody considered the top power hitting prospect? His progression as a power hitter. In 2015 he hit 30 homers in High A after hitting four in his first two seasons combined. Then in 2016 he followed up with 26 more between AA and AAA while cutting his strikeout rate from 28% to 20%. 28% is reasonably good for a power hitter. 20% is excellent.
Bellinger has some things to work on at the plate. His strikeout rate went back up in the major leagues as his power continued to grow. Part of his power comes from a long swing which leaves him vulnerable in covering areas of the plate.
But he didn't come from nowhere, and he keeps improving. Plus, the guy's only 22. And it seems likely he'll win that Gold Glove, passing first basemen such as Brandon Belt and Anthony Rizzo at the top. If Gonzalez rebounds, and Bellinger moves back to left field, he might win one there. Short on experience at the position, he's still the fastest player at the position when he plays it.
We've been talking for some time about the Dodgers' excellent stable of prospects. Bellinger should have been a little surprise to us, not a big one. And it shouldn't come as much of a surprise when he wins a Gold Glove -- at either of two positions.
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Post by rog on Dec 1, 2017 3:21:15 GMT -5
Where do we think future Hall of Famers Adrian Beltre and Nolan Arenado should fall among the all-time defensive shortstops? Arenado in particular should stand very high offensively as well. And Beltre has 3000 hits.
I believe third base is the most under-represented position in the Hall of Fame. There are likely three or four third basemen playing today who will eventually improve that representation.
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Post by rog on Dec 1, 2017 3:22:33 GMT -5
Is there a time in baseball history when three defensive third basemen as good as Beltre, Arenado and Manny Machado have played?
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Post by rog on Dec 1, 2017 3:23:32 GMT -5
How about four defensive shortstops as good as Crawford, Simmons, Lindor and Russell?
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Post by rog on Dec 1, 2017 3:24:03 GMT -5
Can we remember a team that declined defensively as quickly as did the Giants?
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Post by rog on Dec 1, 2017 3:27:35 GMT -5
How about a player who declined from iron man to old as quickly as Hunter Pence? Who declined from one of the best defensive center fielders to quite possibly the worst as quickly as Denard Span? Have we seen a team over-estimate a position as badly as the Giants did with left field last season?
Does that sound like a bad outfield? The good news is that if the Giants could add just two good outfielders, they would have ... two good outfielders.
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Post by rog on Dec 1, 2017 3:29:33 GMT -5
Also speaking of defense, Yadier Molina is now being spoken of as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Speaking of the Hall of Fame, which 10 players would you vote for this time? I counted 20 players I personally could see entering the Hall one day.
Including Omar Vizquel, Boagie!
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Post by rog on Dec 1, 2017 3:30:43 GMT -5
Some amazing defensive center fielders too, some of whom might be available to the Giants fairly reasonably.
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Dec 13, 2017 10:10:52 GMT -5
Post by rog on Dec 13, 2017 10:10:52 GMT -5
Boly, can you explain how some of the Strat-O-Matic ratings work?
For instance, you said that Mays was a 1-17 base runner, while Yelich was 1-15. Does that mean that Mays was a 1 on a 1-5 basis, with 1 being the best. And that he was a 1 to a magnitude of 17, possibly on a 20-point scale?
As you can see, I'm just guessing. Perhaps you could tell us what the ratings really mean. Maybe showing us how the key Giants players were rated last season in the various categories and how they are rated for 2017 when those ratings come out (or already have).
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Dec 13, 2017 10:54:29 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Dec 13, 2017 10:54:29 GMT -5
The ratings for base running, NOT stealing, are based upon a 1-20 format.
I've been playing Strat since 1966, and have never seen anyone's ability to take the extra base higher than 1-17.
On the flip side, I've never seen anyone rated less than 1-8. Ernie Lombardi, Benji Molina were 2, 1-8 runners.
What that range represents is the ability of the player to either take the extra base, or go from 1st to 3rd/2nd to home.
It doesn't always mean flat out speed.
boly
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