The Cardinals May Be a Good Source of Outfielders

[Rog]

Even if the don't trade for Giancarlo Stanton, the Cardinals have Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Jose Martinez, Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Magneuris Sierra in their outfield mix.  Most of those guys are under team control for a while.  Might be a fertile area for the Giants to look for outfielders. 

In looking at center fielders in particular, there seem to be a lot of good ones or good prospects around the majors who might be available at the right price.  Money and good players to trade may be obstacles, but a lack of candidates shouldn't be.

Remember too that many of the teams competing for Stanton could provide a trade opportunity if they are the team to land Giancarlo.

As is pretty much always the case, we're all eager for the Giants to begin making moves.  The Mariners and A's made a deal yesterday, perhaps opening up more moves.  When free agents begin to sign, that could create further opportunity.

The Winter Meetings are what, something like two and a half weeks away?  That usually stirs up a fair amount of activity.

[klaiggeb]

Pretty good point, Rog.

I know Pham had, what I consider, a surprising break out season last year.

And the little I saw of Bader, I liked.

He would fit MY profile; Young with potential who can really go get the ball in CF

boly

[Rog]

We're in luck. Fan Graphs (after reading this synopsis, I think you'll see why I read it) has two articles in the past four months that involve Bader. Here is some of what was written:

"Bader has big-league tools. He’s a plus-plus runner from home to first, and that speed allows him to play center field competently. He has above-average bat speed and is able to turn on good velocity on the inner half, generating reliable power to his pull side.

But he also has holes. Bader’s poor plate coverage leaves him vulnerable to breaking balls away and he often swings over the top of takeable sliders. His aggressiveness may compound this issue and inflate his strikeout rate, which has grown as he’s moved through the minors. Once we factor in what could happen to Bader’s offensive output due to MLB defensive positioning and pitcher adjustment/exploitation, his offensive future starts looking quite medium, even in center field. Barring mechanical adjustment or better breaking-ball recognition, I think he projects as a platoon option in center more than an average regular."

This writer/scout ranked him the #9 prospect in the Cardinals system (on Tuesday). That would likely put him in the Giants' top five IMO.

Bader's projection places him most likely as little more than a replacement player, but the second-most likely is pretty much what the author stated -- somewhere between a platoon player and a second-division starter, likely toward the latter. That is clearly better than he was projected in July.

Here is what was said about Bader in July:

"Bader has plus bat speed and some raw power, but it’s hard for him to utilize it in games because his swing is so flat and linear. He has to really adjust his lower half to move his barrel up and down in the hitting zone and, while this worked at Double-A, not everyone thinks it’s sustainable in the big leagues. Additionally, Bader has trouble seeing the ball against right-handed pitching, especially breaking balls, over the top of which he often swings. It’s more of a 40/45 hit/power profile which doesn’t play everyday in a corner, but Bader was an above-average runner for me in the Fall League and plus during the season for some scouts with whom I spoke, so some orgs think he can moonlight in center field.

"Bader's profile isn’t all roses and sunshine, as his strikeout and walk rates both leave much to be desired. These metrics suggest he may have issues getting on base in the majors."

For the Cardinals Bader hit .235/.283/.376/.659, which is no better than replacement value. Bader's fielding appears to be about average. He is only 23 and played mostly center and right fields. Bader's minor league numbers (.282/.346/.473/.817) are decent for a center fielder, but his 295/85 K/BB ratio isn't promising.

Bader bats right-handed and is a decent fielder, so he would complement Denard Span somewhat, but based on what I've read here (I don't remember him but I trust the scouting here), I don't think he's the guy. I think Steven Duggar is more promising, although perhaps not as advanced.

Now, if Bader becomes a star, I will clearly have been off here. But based on what I've read here (and there are of course many other scouting reports we're not privy to, and likely others I could find if I took more time), I would guess he's at about the level of a platoon player. If he's more than a second-division starter, I'll be quite surprised.

I think the only position he will be able to play at a level above replacement will be center field, where he appears to be around average defensively. I will be quite surprised if he has the bat for a corner outfield slot.

I haven't seen the guy play, so there's no personal eye test here. I'm relying on others who have seen him play to be decent judges. And they likely are.

[Rog]

As for Pham, he truly broke out last season. Can't say much about his fielding, but he showed he can both hit (very well) and steal bases (nicely).

Tommy has an eye problem which could explode on him. He attributes his better hitting to having greatly improved the eye issue. I believe though that the eye problem is one that could return. It's been a while since I read about him, but I know that after I traded him along with Miguel Sano for Carlos Correa, Pham kept me from making our league finals with a great penultimate week to the season. Ironically, Correa was great the next week and would have won the championship for me if I had made the finals.

Piscotty (from Pleasanton) and Grichuk are believed to have potential, but I haven't studied them.

In summary, Bader, no. Pham, wow (although I would need to know more about his eye condition).

I traded Pham because I had a deep outfield including Bryce Harper and Michael Conforto, who quickly became injured, leaving me exposed even though I had traded for an outstanding shortstop hitter in Correa.

Anyway, despite trading him, I love Pham. But his eye condition worries me. For the Giants, it likely doesn't matter. I would be shocked if the Cardinals let him go for anything close to what the Giants are likely to offer.

[rxmeister]

None of those Cardinals outfielders excite me and they don’t excite the Cardinals either or they wouldn’t be willing to break the bank for Stanton. They are certainly better than the ones the Giants are planning to throw out there though. Giants said they would cast a wide net and they certainly are.

[klaiggeb]

I agree, Mark. NONE of them excites me either... but, as you also said, it WOULD be an improvement over last year's flotsam.

boly

[Rog]

Pham excites me. Jake Mastroianni yesterday recommended the Giants target Piscotty and Grichuk, both of whom are 26.

I'm out on Grichuk, but I like (not love) Stephen Piscotty. Piscotty is under contract for five more years at an affordable $32 million, and last season he improved his walk, swinging strike and chase rates. Not a great player, but he might have a chance to be something like the Hunter Pence of old.

He looks like an average outfielder with decent speed (athough not a good base runner), and he attended both Amador High (Pleasanton) and Stanford. He's not a star, but he could provide an improvement. He had good strike zone control in the minors, and last season he regained some of it in the majors.

In 2016, he batted .273 with 22 homers and 85 RBI's. Last season he declined to .235 and spent part of the season in the minors, but it appears to me that he hit better than his numbers indicate.

I would consider trading Hunter Strickland for him. I would consider Brandon Belt and Strickland for him and Matt Carpenter. I would think about Belt for Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko and a solid kicker (either field goals or punts).