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Why
Oct 29, 2017 9:41:30 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Oct 29, 2017 9:41:30 GMT -5
A statement, not a question.
For weeks I've been trying to figure out just HOW the Dodgers went from good, to incredibly good, and I've finally figured it out.
Career years from unexpected places.
Let's start with Chris Taylor. Didn't even make the post season roster last year.
3 seasons in Seattle and what, 1 home run? Or something like that?
Who in their right mind saw 23 HRs, and all those RBIs coming?
Justin Turner-When the Dodgers got him a couple of years back he was so-so.
He got better, then BOOM! This year he exploded.
Alex Wood- Not much since he came up and suddenly, an All Star.
Brandon Morrow; Mostly seasons in with ERAs in the mid to high 4's or even 5's.
Signed to a minor league contract and goes from decent to below average to top of the line.
Cody Bellinger: Brought to up FILL IN, caught fire and stayed. NO ONE, saw that coming.
NO ONE.
Yeah, he's talented, but he had a Willie McCovey-like rookie year.
THAT many career years pretty much spells trouble for the rest of the league, ESPECIALLY when the team expected to give them the most trouble, took a nose dive and went into the can: us.
boly
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Why
Oct 29, 2017 13:06:11 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Oct 29, 2017 13:06:11 GMT -5
Let's start with Chris Taylor. Didn't even make the post season roster last year. 3 seasons in Seattle and what, 1 home run? Or something like that? Who in their right mind saw 23 HRs, and all those RBIs coming? Justin Turner-When the Dodgers got him a couple of years back he was so-so. He got better, then BOOM! This year he exploded. Rog -- It's hard to know if the Dodgers got lucky, saw something in the player others missed or helped the player develop. Some of each may have been involved. The bottom line is that the Dodgers got very fine seasons from both players, and Turner is now pretty much proven. Turner's career OPS in four seasons with the Dodgers is now .881. That's higher than any Giant. To help put that in perspective, Turner's OPS with the Dodgers is higher than Will Clark's with the Giants. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4122/why#ixzz4wvBxejOx
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Why
Oct 29, 2017 13:09:49 GMT -5
Post by klaiggeb on Oct 29, 2017 13:09:49 GMT -5
they got luck with BOTH Turner and Taylor.
Neither had shown much more than "journeymen" abilities.
boly
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Why
Oct 29, 2017 13:12:34 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Oct 29, 2017 13:12:34 GMT -5
Cody Bellinger: Brought to up FILL IN, caught fire and stayed. NO ONE, saw that coming. NO ONE. Rog -- I don't think anyone expected Bellinger to play as well as he did, but at the beginning of the season I thought there was an excellent chance he would replace Gonzalez at some time during the season. Seeing that Gonzalez was going to decline (or perhaps more accurately, continue his decline) wasn't a hard thing to see. Remember how upset we were when the Dodgers spent so much money in acquiring Gonzalez? We should have been more worried about what the Dodgers stated at that time -- that despite the short-term moves they felt were necessary to become immediately competitive, the Dodgers' plan was to develop from within. Both in the 2016 season and the Arizona Fall League, Cody significantly improved his BB/K ratio, which you know I believe to be quite important. I'm just guessing here, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers were less surprised by Cody's success than outsiders were. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4122/why?page=1#ixzz4wvD1oScC
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Why
Oct 29, 2017 13:21:25 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Oct 29, 2017 13:21:25 GMT -5
Alex Wood- Not much since he came up and suddenly, an All Star. Rog -- Depends on how one evaluates a pitcher. In his first season and a half with Atlanta, Wood posted an ERA below three and struck out 247 hitters in 249.1 innings. He walked 72 which gave him better than a 3 to 1 K/BB ratio. Wood fell back after that, but the talent had already been there. It's possible the Dodgers' scouting and analytics are better than the Giants (which could be why the Giants are trying to catch up). Regarding Turner and Taylor, the two had good -- not great -- BB/K ratios in the minors. Both players were pretty decent minor league hitters. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4122/why?page=1#ixzz4wvEwy5rZ
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Why
Oct 29, 2017 13:26:17 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Oct 29, 2017 13:26:17 GMT -5
Brandon Morrow; Mostly seasons in with ERAs in the mid to high 4's or even 5's. Signed to a minor league contract and goes from decent to below average to top of the line. Rog -- Morrow has been plagued by injuries over his career. But let's not forget that he was drafted ahead of Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer. What surprises me is that at age 33 and with a history of arm problems, he can still throw 100 miles an hour. Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4122/why?page=1#ixzz4wvGnr1oJ
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Oct 29, 2017 13:32:20 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Oct 29, 2017 13:32:20 GMT -5
Regarding Morrow, he didn't exactly come out of nowhere. I mentioned his high draft spot, but in 2015 and 2016 his ERA was 2.73 and 1.69. This season he exploded to almost 98 mph, but he's been around 94 every season of his career -- again, despite arm troubles. Morrow's career strikeout rate is 9.2 per nine innings, which is a little higher than Madison Bumgarner's.
I would say that the performances of the four players were surprising but not shocking. The bottom line though is that the Dodgers now HAVE those four players. Their player development, scouting and analytics look pretty good.
The Dodgers are meeting their own expectations stated when the new ownership came in. We were worried about the wrong thing.
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Oct 29, 2017 13:34:26 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Oct 29, 2017 13:34:26 GMT -5
Now, THAT'S what I hate about the Dodgers -- not the Dodgers themselves. What I hate is that their organization has gone around the Giants.
That's not to say that the Dodgers won't take a significant step backward next season or sometime after that, but I certainly don't think we've seen the last of them. Their strategy is too good, and they're executing it too well.
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Oct 29, 2017 16:14:41 GMT -5
Post by Rog on Oct 29, 2017 16:14:41 GMT -5
Remember how many injuries the Giants had in 2016? The Dodgers had more days missed to injury than any other team in the majors -- and still won the NL West.
Some guys certainly came through for the Dodgers this season, but fabulous pitching prospect Julio Urias missed the season with injury. Remember the tepid numbers we showed for Stratton and Beede? Several years younger and reaching the big leagues at the age of 19, Urias had 10.3 K's to 3.0 BB in the minors. His ERA was over a run lower than Stratton and Beede. Which pitcher would we say looks head and shoulders (no dandruff) above the other two as a prospect?
The Dodgers went on without Urias as if nothing had happened to one of the game's top prospects.
IMO we tend to overvalue the Giants' prospects. They excelled with their three key draft choices of Lincecum, Bumgarner and Posey (not as easy as it looks, as we have discussed before). But other than those, their drafting overall has been anemic.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have fared quite well since they re-emphasized developing from within. Who knows? Maybe the change of direction the Giants are pursuing will yield similar results.
Regarding analytics, all four World Series teams the past two seasons (with the possible exception of the Indians) are among the leaders in the use of metrics. I remember perhaps five or six years ago when a writer at Baseball Prospectus resigned his duties in order to join the Houston Astros.
Remember how in the early 2000's writers streamed from the newspapers to writing online? That's the type of change we've seen in the decade of the 10's with analytical guys being recruited by major league teams. I'm not sure if Billy Beane is the guy who started the analytics revolution in baseball, but it has been upon us or a decade or more.
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