Keep or Trade

[Rog]

OK.  So which Giants players would we keep, and which ones do we think might bring more or a better fit in trade?  And of the players we would keep, what are our expectations for next season?

[klaiggeb]

Bochy, in his pre game talk yesterday said that he liked our core players, and that with a few tweaks, the team is close to repeating as contenders.

I just don't see that.

I just don't.

I fully acknowledge that NOT having a healthy Madison and Cueto for most of the year was a killer.

Matt Moore taking 37 steps backward sealed the deal.

When 3/5 of your starting staff go in the tank for a variety of reasons, you can't compete.


But our situation is worse than that. We DON'T have an outfield.

Span and Pence in particular have been massive disappointments.

and as you pointed out before the season began, LF has been a black hole.


I think trading Panik is a massive mistake.


Our up the middle defense with Crawford and Panik could be argued as the best defensively in baseball.


I'd move, or at least, try to move, Belt and Span and Pence in deals, and maybe even Blach.

I just don't see many takers.

Too many issues.


I think we're screwed until kids like Ryder, Shaw and Arroyo actually MAKE it.

But to date, Ryder just keeps getting worse, Shaw ISN'T a LF no matter how much they try, and Arroyo isn't the power bat we need at 3B.



All that being the case, I would not bring Pablo back.

Not that he hasn't shown upside, he has. But right now, HE'S in the way of either Ryder or Arroyo playing 3B.


It's time to flush the toilet, and roll the kids out for a year a let the chips fall.

[Rog]

Bochy, in his pre game talk yesterday said that he liked our core players, and that with a few tweaks, the team is close to repeating as contenders.

I just don't see that.

I just don't.


Rog -- Nor do I. Remember, Bruce is loyal to his players.




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[Rog]

IMO Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija and Moore are rotation keepers, although I would be open to offers. I just don't think Moore has the value right now to be constructively traded. Stratton and Blach would be available, although I could see Stratton as the #5 starter and Blach as a LOOGY.

I wouldn't be beholden to any relievers, although I expect Melancon to return as the closer at some point, and Dyson to slip to set up man.

Buster and Hundley are keepers behind the plate.

The three infielders are fine, especially since Belt likely can't be traded due to his concussion issues. I would invite Pablo to spring training, although third base would be Arroyo's to lose. I don't think the Giants could get much for Tomlinson, so he's a keeper. He's become a nice backup, although I still worry about his hitting, and he has less power than anyone I can think of off the top of my head.

The outfielders could each be gone, although Parker and Slater have backup potential. If either could play center field, his value would improve significantly.

It's too bad the Giants didn't see their outfield issues coming. They felt comfortable with center and right, and thought the rest of their lineup would be good enough to cover for left field. Didn't work out that way.

The Giants do have some outfielders on the come, although I wouldn't expect any of them to open the season with the Giants. Steve Duggar, who ended the season in Sacramento, appears to be the most advanced, and he plays center field. He could well be the center fielder of the future, and might get a chance if Span gets injured later in the season. He might wind up sharing time with the platoon-worthy Denard even if Span's health continues.

Pence may have shown enough lately to be the guy to beat in right field, but I doubt he's done enough to be traded.

So, Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardzija, Moore, Melancon, Dyson, Posey, Hundley, Belt, Panik, Crawford and perhaps Arroyo as the core. Probably throw Strickland in there too (although I think the Giants may look to trade him), along with Stratton and and perhaps Blach as a LOOGY. Ty isn't the hard thrower we would expect out of the pen, but he limited lefty hitters to an impressive .592 OPS this season.

There is certainly a spot for Okert and/or Osich if either could get it together. Maybe Derek Law can bounce back.

As for the minor leaguers, there are openings to be filled if anyone steps up.

I would certainly be looking to trade, especially if it means shedding salary. I would be more than willing to hook up one or more prospects with someone like Pence in order to get Hunter's salary off the books. Same to a lesser degree with Span, who makes about two-thirds as much as Hunter.

[klaiggeb]

That's a pretty good evaluation, Rog, and I agree, especially about all 3 outfielders being gone.

I suspect that management saw the LF problem as a potential problem, but after the Duval issue, I think they were trying to make sure they didn't get burned again, hoping that wither Mac, or Jarrett would win the job.

They might have done okay, had they both not been hurt.



Might have....




As to the bullpen, we need a killer LH in the Lopez mold.


Melacon and Dyson "look" to be solid on the back end.

But since Strickland STILL hasn't made that big step forward as expected, he could be moved easily.

Not sure I'd do it, but as a 7th inning guy, he might be our best choice.


I think Slater will get a long, long look for RF next year.

Same with Parker.


And I agree; 3B SHOULD be Arroyo's to lose, with Ryder and Pablo in the mix.

Though as I said, I think Pablo's in the way.

But since he's a cheap option, he's worth the look.

boly

[Islandboagie]

I disagree with both of you, I think.

Sabean said the same thing that Bochy said a few days ago, and I agree with both of them. But it really comes down to what one considers a "tweak." What they said was that they still believe that Posey, Bumgarner, Crawford, Belt and Panik have the ability to lead us to the post-season if they're paired with the right supporting cast. They may have understated the problem by using the word "tweak" but essentially what I THINK they're saying is the supporting cast needs to be changed.

That's exactly what needs to happen in my opinion.

A number of moves need to be made, but the ones that stick out like a sore thumb to me are as follows...

1. Span needs to go. NOTHING about his game tells me he's a leadoff hitter OR a centerfielder.

I never liked Span, I wanted him to prove me wrong, but I had a feeling he wasn't going to. I remember an interview with him at the beginning of 2016. He was recalling the 18 inning game in the playoffs against the Giants, he said once Belt hit the homerun he knew the game was over. At that point I knew he didn't fit in with our guys. We didn't win 3 championships with that mentality.

2. Samardzija needs to go. I don't care how many times Krukow rants and raves about him, he stinks. After his bad games, when he's interviewed, he shows no disappointment in himself. He acts like it's spring training. I can't deal with that attitude.

We've seen a few pitchers go through the same kind of spell - Zito, Sanchez, Lincecum and now Cain...they all wore it. They all demanded better of themselves. Samardzija is happy being Samardzija. I say let him being happy being Samardzija somewhere else. By the way, Moore wears it too, that's why I want to keep him over Samardzija.

[klaiggeb]

Boagie:

I think we're all saying the same thing.

1-'Tweak' is the wrong word. Some bigger changes need to be made.

2-I don't know which way I lean with Samardizja. 3 starts he's a world beater, then for 3 or 4, he's not.

I do believe he is VERY tradable. How much we'd get in return is the question.

I'm for getting younger with Stratton and maybe Beede, too.

I haven't closed the door on Blach, but he MUST improve his breaking ball to be a starter. I DO NOT see him as a Loogie. He hasn't got a kill pitch, NOR does he sink the ball like Lopez did, nor does he have an unusual delivery, like Lopez, who can keep hitters off balance.

3-You were right about Span. I was wrong. It 'sounded' so good at the time. At... the... time... Now, I just ain't impressed

On that line, I 'think' you're implying that the outfield needs to be re done. Yes?

boly

[Islandboagie]

That's a big YES, Boly. I'd like to see them get that CF from KC (I always forget his name) but he always impresses me. I'd like to see Pence in LF, and another outfielder with near CF-type range in RF. We absolutely need good defenders in the outfield in our ballpark.

[Rog]

As to the bullpen, we need a killer LH in the Lopez mold.


Rog -- Remember, Javier didn't throw hard either. It seems unlikely at first glance, but Blach just might be the guy. And if Smith gets back sometime during the season, he could take on the Affeldt role -- and when he's fully healthy, likely be better than Jeremy at it.




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[Rog]

Not sure I'd do it, but as a 7th inning guy, he might be our best choice.


Rog -- Right now Hunter likely is that choice. I think his 2.79 ERA is a bit misleading though. His WHIP is 1.47, and his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 3.70. Remember, FIP is a better indicator of future than present ERA is.

Hunter took a step backward this season, primarily because he walked more batters (28 in 58 innings). He continued to do a good job of keeping the ball in the park (four home runs).




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[Rog]

I think Slater will get a long, long look for RF next year.

Same with Parker.


Rog -- It's possible both will be in the outfield. Parker has the stronger arm.




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[Rog]

But to date, Ryder just keeps getting worse, Shaw ISN'T a LF no matter how much they try, and Arroyo isn't the power bat we need at 3B.


Rog -- From the scouting reports I've seen on Shaw, he certainly isn't an outfielder. It would be nice to have a more powerful third baseman than Arroyo, but if they could get more outfield power, perhaps his hitting would be acceptable.

I'd bring Pablo to spring training at least. He has a mammoth slump, but aside from that, he's actually been a good hitter with the Giants. If the Giants could trade Belt -- which seems problematic given his concussion problems -- the Giants might be able to use Pablo at first and third bases along with the younger Arroyo and Shaw.


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[Rog]

Span needs to go. NOTHING about his game tells me he's a leadoff hitter OR a centerfield


Rog -- Perhaps if the Giants ate some of his salary and combined him with a prospect, they could get something for him.



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[Rog]

Samardzija needs to go. I don't care how many times Krukow rants and raves about him, he stinks.


Rog -- I wasn't for the Giants' signing Jeff, but while he's still struggling to reach his potential, he certainly hasn't stunk. For starters (sorry), I believe he leads the league in innings pitched.

I would be willing to trade him if I could get something significant in return, but while it's certainly an unclear picture, I think he's worth holding onto.

The Giants do owe him $54 million over the next three seasons, so maybe they should trade him to clear salary. They need to trade SOMEONE, and he's certainly tradeable. But if they trade him, they will need to get three starters from among Moore, Blach, Stratton and Beede. Maybe Samardzija doesn't fit the Giants' new timeline and should be traded, but if the Giants hold onto him and he has a good 2018, his trade value would soar.




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[Rog]

Moore wears it too, that's why I want to keep him over Samardzija.


Rog -- Samardzija is under team control for three years; Moore for only one. That will likely enter the decision as well. If the Giants had more starting pitching ready, it would be nice to shed Jeff's $54 million. But is there enough to fill in?




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[Rog]

By the way, I like your counter-opinion, Boagie. You've presented it nicely. The call isn't clear-cut, and I suspect your idea is closer to what the Giants will actually do.

One thing that I find somewhat intriguing is that the Giants could keep Samardzija in hopes of a quick turnaround or a fine year by him to would help explode his trade value. As strange as it seems, by keeping Samardzija the Giants could both be keeping 2018 alive and helping the future should Jeff's trade value soar. The Giants could be true to their idea of not giving up on 2018, while still employing a strategy that could help them build for 2019 and beyond.

I'm not totally opposed to trading Jeff by the way. But keeping him might give the Giants a chance to eat their cake and have it too.

[Rog]

I would be quite surprised if the Giants trade Joe Panik. He's young (about to turn 27), cheap, under team control for three more years, and has enjoyed a nice bounce-back second half. It's always possible they would trade him to get something in return while retaining Arroyo or Tomlinson to take over, but it just doesn't seem to fit with almost any type of plan they are likely to develop for the winter.

[Rog]

What they said was that they still believe that Posey, Bumgarner, Crawford, Belt and Panik have the ability to lead us to the post-season if they're paired with the right supporting cast.


Rog -- That is true. The Giants need to hold open auditions, hopefully with a substantial change in the supporting case. To simplify the situation, it is possible the Giants could rebound if they add two quality outfielders (and preferably three). Not that there aren't other holes, but the outfield appears to be the only gaping one.




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[klaiggeb]

Rog -- Remember, Javier didn't throw hard either.

***boly says***

I addressed this, Rog.

I said: Blach doesn't throw hard, doesn't have a good sinker, doesn't have a kill pitch, and DOESN'T have a funky delivery.

All of those things contributed to Lopez being a great loogy, and they're all things Blach doesn't have.

boly

[Rog]

Rog -- Remember, Javier didn't throw hard either.

***boly says***

I addressed this, Rog.

I said: Blach doesn't throw hard, doesn't have a good sinker, doesn't have a kill pitch, and DOESN'T have a funky delivery.

All of those things contributed to Lopez being a great loogy, and they're all things Blach doesn't have.


Rog -- True. Ty is rather limited. All he does is get left-handed hitters out. Their career OPS against him is .564. Sandy Koufax's career OPS against lefties was .598.

I'm not trying to say Ty Blach is Sandy Koufax. Clearly he is nothing resembling Sandy Koufax. But he DOES get lefty hitters out. Not in the same way Sandy did, but he gets them out.

Remember too that Ty's great OPS against lefties came primarily as a starter, where he had to pace himself much more than he would need to do as a LOOGY.

I feel you're falling victim to typical baseball prejudice here. Would Ty truly make a good LOOGY? I don't know. But the evidence is clearly there that he should be given the opportunity if he doesn't qualify for a more valuable role.

You addressed it, but the letter came back with the notation "Address unknown. No such number. No such zone."

You may be right here, Boly, but isn't there enough evidence to give Ty a shot and see what he can do? I certainly agree he's not the prototypical LOOGY. But if he gets lefties out, who cares?

It's kind of like, if Andrelton Simmons truly is awkward, who cares as long as he seems to make more plays than any other shortstop. If all the players who didn't "look" the part had been rejected out of hand, baseball would have lost a lot of great players.

And once again (unless you've addressed it in a post I haven't yet read), what is it you see that I don't? I don't doubt that you do. I think each of us sees a few things no one else here sees (or at least sees them differently). I'd just like to know what they are so I can start looking for them.

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[Rog]

By the way, Blach certainly doesn't throw hard (just 90.3 mph this season), but for whatever reason, his fastball is his best pitch.

Remember, I haven't been a big Ty Blach fan. I'm still not (although he has done some things that have impressed me). But his major league results thus far against the 213 lefty hitters he's faced have been excellent.

Maybe if he becomes a LOOGY, he won't get the same results. My guess is he won't. His results thus far have been TOO good. But if he comes close, he would make an effective LOOGY. His problem might come when he has to face a right-handed hitter, but as primarily a starter, obviously he's already seen a lot of those.

Don is older than any of us, but he isn't as set in his ways as many of us are. My guess is that he would be willing to at least give it a try.

By the way, Don might be the most creative thinker here. I applaud him for that.

[Islandboagie]

Blach might be a decent reliever, but to Boly's point, i think there's a significant difference between getting lefties out as a starter and pitching to Joey Votto with the bases loaded in the 8th with the game on the line.

Lopez put together amazing numbers in short appearances against some of the best left handed hitters in the NL. Blach might be decent, maybe even good, but I can almost promise you he won't be Lopez.

[klaiggeb]

Well said, Boagie.

He could very well be a decent to good reliever. But not as the one out Lefty Guy.

Just doesn't have the stuff for it.

he plays better as a starter, OR a Guillermo Mota, long reliever type of guy.

boly

[Rog]

Which Giants southpaw -- aside from Madison Bumgarner -- is more likely for the LOOGY role than Blach? I'd rather have Blach facing Joey Votto with the bases loaded in the 8th than either Osich or Okert.

My point is, why not give Ty a shot at that role? Better yet, use him in a variety of roles out of the bullpen -- from long reliever to LOOGY.

If he is healthy, even when Will Smith comes back, the Giants will need a LOOGY. Will is more than that. In 2016, Will had a .645 OPS against right-handers and a .627 OPS against lefties. Will walks too many batters. That's his only serious flaw.

As a reliever, Will has a 3.13 career ERA, has allowed only 7.3 hits per nine innings, and has struck out 11.9. I don't believe any Giants pitcher has ever struck out 11.9 batters per nine innings.

I'm somewhat appalled that almost everyone seems to have forgotten that after August 18th last season (and including the playoffs), Will didn't allow an earned run in his last 15 innings. He allowed only five hits, while striking out 21.

Some might say, well, he gave up a hit in that horrible ninth inning of game 4. And indeed he did. On a bouncer up the middle hit at a speed that would be an out 78% of the time.

But almost no one seems to talk about how great Will was down the stretch.

What a shame he had to endure Tommy John surgery this spring. He's still just 28, at the young end of the Giants' core age.

Coming back to Blach, which lefty would you rather seen in the LOOGY role? I would hope either Osich or Okert would grow into the role, but neither has done so yet.

Blach's OPS against lefties in 2017 was, what, .564 IIRC? Okert was .811 and Osich .823. Remember too, that most pitchers pitch better in relief than as starters.

I think almost anyone who is objective and isn't going merely by sterotypes would say that Blach deserves a shot. And perhaps that Okert and Osich deserve to be.

[klaiggeb]

Roger-Which Giants southpaw -- aside from Madison Bumgarner -- is more likely for the LOOGY role than Blach?

***boly says****

None.

And that is important... how?

We can go out and find a better candidate for a Loogy, IMHO.

Even Osich or Okert are better Loogy possibilities.

Then again, Osich has trouble throwing strikes, so who knows.

boly

[sfgdood]

I would have gotten rid of Belt two years ago as most of you know, so obviously he is the guy who's head is first on my chopping block now. He's done NOTHING to earn the big contract he got, IMO. If the Giants insist on not protecting their most expensive investment, Posey, by moving him to 1st base, Shaw is ready to take over there. Panik I'd like to keep IF we believe his concussion issues are over. We absolutely CANNOT be thinking of any of our young outfielders as being starters in 2018. That failed this year and it will fail again next year. Bochy's delusional if he thinks we only need "tweaks." I was a big supporter of Sandoval 3 years ago but that ship has sailed. I would love to see Pablo become the Panda of old, and he did show flashes of that possibility, but he can't be the only egg in our 3rd base basket. Bobby Evans has lots of work to do.

The pitching I like. Madison is Madison. Only Cueto is getting up there in years. Moore can bounce back at his age. The youngsters will have quite a battle for the last two rotation spots. The bullpen is deep with a healthy Melancon and Smith coming back.

[Rog]

He could very well be a decent to good reliever. But not as the one out Lefty Guy.

Just doesn't have the stuff for it.


Rog -- Let's get our arms around this situation. LOOGY's are LOOGY's -- not closers or set up men -- because they don't have good enough stuff to consistently get right-handed hitters out. Will Smith has too much stuff to be limited to the LOOGY role.

Ty does not. Ty may be good enough to be a LOOGY, he certainly seems good enough to be a long reliever, and he might benefit the Giants most in a varied role. But if he had more stuff, he likely would remain a starter, or if he does move to the bullpen, it would be as a closer or set up man.

LOOGY stands for Limited One Out GuY, but it could also stand for Limited One Out GuY. Blach has shown the past two seasons that he can get lefty hitters out; he simply doesn't get out enough right-handed hitters. That would seem to spell LOOGY.

Let me ask again: Which of the trio of Blach, Okert and Osich would you give the first shot at the top LOOGY position? Okert and Osich may be NOOGY's. Not even a One Out GuY.


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[Rog]

Blach might be decent, maybe even good, but I can almost promise you he won't be Lopez.


Rog -- Javier's wife hopes not.




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[Rog]

I would have gotten rid of Belt two years ago as most of you know, so obviously he is the guy who's head is first on my chopping block now.


Rog -- Given Brandon's concussion problems, that might be a rough way to express your sentiment.




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[Rog]

If the Giants insist on not protecting their most expensive investment, Posey, by moving him to 1st base, Shaw is ready to take over there.


Rog -- I think if Brandon is healthy enough to be traded, the Giants would now be open to it. For one thing, they could put together something of a platoon with Hundley and Shaw.

But I don't yet see evidence that Shaw is ready. His .289/.858 at Sacramento was pretty good (similar, for instance, to Belt's .289/.841 in 2013), but that hid the underlying concern of Shaw's more than five strikeouts (106) to one walk (20).

One positive was that Shaw's best month was August (.314/.921), but he still struck out 32 times to just 4 walks in the season's final full month.

On the other side of the ball, I think the Giants will take a significant defensive hit if they replace Belt with Shaw. Very likely a big speed hit as well.

Over the past two seasons, Belt has been at worst the Giants' third-best hitter. Extreme dislike for him is extreme foolishness.

We all wish he had more power. (It's possible, although certainly guaranteed, that Shaw has more.) Yet when he was concussed this season, he was on pace for more than 25 homers. In fact, despite missing a third of the season, he'll easily lead the Giants in homers this season. Led them in 2015 too. And he has the most homers on the team going back to 2014 and perhaps 2013.

As has been shown, Belt has been a nice power hitter -- on the road. Put him in a homer-friendly home park, and we wouldn't be complaining about his lack of power.

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