Aurilia and Sabermetrics

[Rog]

I run into too many Fahreeds.

They know sabermetrics, think they know the game, talk like they know the game, but don't.


Rog -- I find that many if not most who criticize sabermetrics don't know enough about the subject to even talk like they know sabermetrics' "game."

I find it intriguing that the clubs themselves, who are involved in the business of baseball, seeking to make a profit, now know, understand and appreciate sabermetrics.

If sabermetrics didn't have significant value, I don't think teams would have built large analytics departments.



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[Rog]

Sabremetrics are just the precursor to baseball becoming more of a betting sport. The traditionalists want no part of it, the betting people love it. And then there's a group of people who don't know any better and just like to act like they're smarter than everyone else.


Rog -- Let's not forget there is also the group who expand their knowledge of the game -- and in the case of those hired by major league clubs, the knowledge of the clubs themselves -- to add to their enjoyment of the game.

I too was a traditionalist -- until I discovered analytics and realized it was a different way of looking at the game, one that complemented the view of the traditionalist and allowed one to dig deeper.

I don't bet, so for me it certainly wasn't that.

I might add that I didn't suddenly forget all I knew about baseball when I got into analytics. Rather, I supplemented my knowledge.

Will analytics make baseball more of a betting sport? I'm not sure about that one. If having more knowledge makes one more likely to bet -- and I agree that could indeed be the case -- then I guess so.

But isn't football the biggest betting sport? And football is much harder to understand at a deeper level than baseball is.

You may have a valid point. I simply don't know enough to say. Whether I agree or not though, I like the creativity of the idea. Nice going. That's the type of thinking we can learn from. The type of thinking that makes us ourselves think.




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[Rog]

dk...funny baseball has dipshits who are handing baseball over to Las Vegas..but basketball puts its' summer league in Vegas and football puts the Raiders there..


Rog -- There is also a new NHL team there, the intriguingly named Las Vegas Golden Knights. Maybe the casinos do believe the new teams will increase sports betting. Certainly the games will take people away from the tables and one-armed bandits for several hours.

By the way, I really dig the summer league basketball that is played there. In a way, it's kind of like watching a AAA team or spring training.



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[Rog]

Rog is the perfect example, how many times has he told us how much more he knows about baseball now since learning about sabremetrics? He's just knowledgeable enough to think he has a chance at winning fantasy leagues, next comes betting.


Rog -- I wasn't going to mention this, but the context here makes it too enticing to leave out.

Mark plays fantasy baseball in money leagues. I told him I don't, since I don't gamble. I told him that the closest I came was when I told my wife that if I didn't score 10% more points in our board's fantasy league than the average team, I would give her a large sum of money. Mark told me that was gambling.

I didn't see it that way, since it would have been more or less moving money from one pocket to the other.

Mark was also nice enough to say that the way I analyzed the fantasy league he and I play in together -- against those darn Dodgers fans at that! -- I shouldn't ever lose. He likely half meant it and was also patronizing me in a nice manner. He knows better than most here that I don't truly take myself too seriously, and I certainly don't always win -- or even close to it.

What I have found -- and it came as a surprise to me -- is that I enjoy the heck out of playing fantasy. I made the offer to my wife in part to appease her because I was playing in five leagues. (I believe Mark is playing in eight!) This season I'm playing only in my original league, the year I played only to dig my son out of a time jam, which is also the league Mark, his son Bryan and I now play in against those darn Dodgers fans. Mark and I made the playoffs, and young Bryan barely missed.

As for betting (except from one pocket to another) I can't see myself doing that. Of course, two and a half years ago I couldn't see myself playing fantasy. But I'm not going to have to bail my son out by taking over his gambling. (He doesn't gamble either.)

I enjoy analytics because it/they increase(s) my understanding and enjoyment of the game itself. I guess I have long tried to enjoy the game at a deeper level. I can remember that way back in high school I found a scout at Candlestick and spent time talking with him.

(As an aside, one of my dad's desires was for Chris Speier to become a manager and for my dad to become a scout for Chris after my dad had retired from working.)

I guess even before I knew about analytics I enjoyed taking an analytical approach to the game. I remember 30 years ago sending a note to Roger Craig suggesting a (10 man) pitching staff to be used similarly to the way 13-man pitching staffs may well be headed. (Pitch as long as you can as hard as you can, then let the next guy do the same.)

My idea was to have two starting pitcher types pitch in a pair, with one starting and the other ready to enter the game for him and also to motivate him, since it would be easy to reverse the roles of the two. With a four-man rotation (or eight-man, if you look at it that way), there would then be two closers.

The idea was to ideally pair lefties with righties, including the two closers. That would enable the Giants to turn around the lineup mid-game. It would also make it easy to remove the pitcher when a pinch-hitting opportunity arose.

What made me think of it was that at the time the Giants had a plethora of potential starting pitchers. The idea was somewhat revolutionary (or at least I hadn't read about it anywhere else). I have no idea whether it would have worked. But it would have been intriguing to see.

Incidentally, the idea was that as long as the starter pitched well, he would stay in the game, completing it if practical. And when hid complementary "finisher" entered the game, the idea was for the "finisher" to finish the game if he could. But the closers were ultimately there if the need for them developed.

I guess with thinking like that -- and I'm referring to the ideas, not their validity -- I was a prime candidate for analytics when I ran into them.

And now I know more about the game -- and enjoy it differently and more completely -- than I ever did before.

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[Islandboagie]

There's nothing wrong with you enjoying fantasy baseball. There's also nothing wrong with you enjoying the sabremetric side of baseball. MLB meant for it to be fun and interesting and attract more people to the game.

But when MLB says they want the "youth" to be more involved, they aren't talking about kids. The kids are already there. As the cameras span around the crowds you see plenty of kids at baseball games. Do you see the same amount at football, basketball or hockey games? I don't. What MLB wants to attract are the age groups that like to bet. The 20-40 year range. And they want those age groups to feel more confident in betting on a game they really know nothing about. Hence the replay reviews, and the implementation of sabremetrics. Numbers guys are normally betting guys, they didn't just all of a sudden start liking baseball, they're part of the plan.

I don't want to call it a conspiracy, but it's darned near close to one. Shortening the game, making it safer for the players and the fans, and replay reviews are focused on enticing more of the betting crowd to the game. It's so blatantly obvious to me, to me it is a fact.

People watch games that they bet on, even if they have zero interest in the game otherwise. Why do you think the Superbowl is so popular? And what age group do you think the Superbowl tries to attract? Same age group, the betting one. Beer commercials, car commercials..ect ect. They aren't going for kids, they're going for money. Betting money.

Baseball is now no different. It's pushing fantasy leagues, it's pushing betting and grandiose visions of being rich. They want baseball to be the water cooler discussions on Monday, just like football and UFC.

I'm not happy about it, but some people are totally fine with it. I just hope it doesn't totally ruin the game.

[klaiggeb]

Wow!

Boagie, that's sad.

But I have the awful feeling that what you are saying is so true.

Not for everyone, but for the majority.

Man!

Now I have to change the lyrics to that old song: "What have they done to my song..." to "What have they done to our game, ma, what have they done to our game?

They've changed it all into a marketing ploy... what have the done, to our game?"

boly

[Rog]

But when MLB says they want the "youth" to be more involved, they aren't talking about kids. The kids are already there. As the cameras span around the crowds you see plenty of kids at baseball games. Do you see the same amount at football, basketball or hockey games? I don't.


Rog -- I think they're trying to hook kids whose age is in double digits -- kids who are going to the games to actually understand and enjoy the game on the field. I think we don't see as many kids at the other sports because tickets cost so much more.

I sympathize with baseball when it comes to courting young fans. Kids these days have such short attention spans and are used to so much action in the computer games they play. Baseball has less action and is more of a relaxation/cerebral game (from the fans' standpoint).

Your point about 20 to 40 year olds is probably a good one.




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[Rog]

I'm not happy about it, but some people are totally fine with it. I just hope it doesn't totally ruin the game.


Rog -- Why would it ruin the game? Baseball has never been played at a higher level, and the level will likely continue to go higher and higher.




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[Rog]

"What have they done to our game, ma, what have they done to our game?


Rog -- They've made it better and better, in terms of the level it is played at. Some of the improvement is physical; some is mental. It involves among other things better training, nutrition and analytics.

In part it is due to the growing population of course, but think how many more fans watch the games than when we were kids. And think how much better it is played.

I realize there is disagreement on the latter point, but watch the old-time clips and compare how much faster, stronger, etc. today's players are. I know Marty Lurie isn't particularly popular here, but he has studied baseball history about as closely as anyone around, and he was the one who suggested watch the old clips.

Marty is a guy who reveres the past, but is also objective enough to understand how much the game has changed. Whether we like him or not, it's surely nice to have far more chance to talk and listen to talking about Giants baseball. He has nearly doubled the available listening time on weekend game days.



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[Rog]

By the way, the marketing of the game is separate from the way it is played. Always has been, hasn't it?

[donk33]

Sept 12, 2017 4:27:59 GMT -5 Rog said:

dk...funny baseball has dipshits who are handing baseball over to Las Vegas..but basketball puts its' summer league in Vegas and football puts the Raiders there..


Rog -- There is also a new NHL team there, the intriguingly named Las Vegas Golden Knights. Maybe the casinos do believe the new teams will increase sports betting. Certainly the games will take people away from the tables and one-armed bandits for several hours.

By the way, I really dig the summer league basketball that is played there. In a way, it's kind of like watching a AAA team or spring training.


dk...I forgot about hockey....The summer basketball league was much better when it was played in Long Beach as I was able to go to the games....the league started off with several NBA teams, especially the Clippers and Lakers, had teams in the league. There were also independent teams with non drafted kids, and players who had been playing overseas. One year the Clippers had a fairly good draft and the kids were high level effort a nd put on a good show. I was there the day Jerry Wesr brought over Kobe to meet the media and fans...it was the day he signed with the Lakers....I met a fellow who was taping all the games and selling them to the teams, players and agents,etc...he travelled the country filming all sports and selling them ...we used to talk a lot of basketball as I saw one of the first BAA games in NYC and followed it up in 1946 with the first NBL games in Syracuse...the NBL was the superior league as far as players, but the BAA had the big cities...when they combined into the NBA, the BAA controlled the merger and screwed the NBL teams that were left in distributing the players whose teams went under...even so, the NBA was dominated by NBL teams...Lakers, Syracuse and Rochester...one of my biggest sports' thrill was I in the Arena when Syracuse beat Ft. Wayne for the NBA championship...Schayes and LLoyd versus  Yardley and Hutchins....Its funny, the merger really got pushed because Syracuse signed Schayes away from  the Knicks as they give him the almost unheard of salary of $11,000/Yr....that compares to the $69/Wk. I got to sign for my first Engineering job...



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[Islandboagie]

Rog -- Why would it ruin the game? Baseball has never been played at a higher level, and the level will likely continue to go higher and higher.

Boagie- When I say ruin the game, I mean ruin it for the traditionalists. I enjoy good fundamental baseball. Sacrifices, good defense, pitching duels etc..

What's going to happen when we have no umpires and the DH in both leagues? I hate to say it, but I might stop watching.

[Rog]

I root for the Giants, so I don't think I'll ever stop watching.

[Rog]

As an engineer yourself, you might be glad to know that The Bird worked as an engineer after he retired (I believe in Southern California).

[klaiggeb]

Unfortunately, I bleed Giant black and orange, so, like Rog, I won't stop watching.

But if it gets to the point about which boagie is speaking... a part of that love will die.

boly

[Islandboagie]

That's why I say "might." It would have to get pretty bad for me to stop watching altogether.

[sfgdood]

Fahreed is just one of many hired by CSN that is just a pure hack...the commercials he does with Feldman are entertaining but really for sports insight, he is NOT the guy to talk to. He leans on the numbers to make it sound like he does have something to say worth listening to...but Aurilia hit the nail on the head here.

[klaiggeb]

I couldn't agree more, Randy... which is pretty much what I said when I started this thread.

I missed you.

Glad you're back!

boly

[Rog]

If sabermetrics aren't important, why is it that teams are hiring more and more sabermetricians? What is it that we know about major league baseball that the teams themselves don't know?

[Islandboagie]

Because major league baseball wants to appear as more of a sport that can be predictable with numbers that way it can be a popular betting sport. I've already explained this.

[Rog]

Because major league baseball wants to appear as more of a sport that can be predictable with numbers that way it can be a popular betting sport. I've already explained this.


Rog -- That is a good explanation. I'd forgotten you mentioned it.

I think there may be a flaw in your logic though. The teams use the statistical information for their own advantage -- or to keep up with the Joneses. They don't provide it for the public. If baseball wanted more information to be available for the public, they would want to keep those analysts public rather than private. The gambling establishments might even hire them.

In fact, I'll bet (sorry) the betting establishments do indeed have such analysts. That would help them in setting the odds.

Does that make sense? The analysts hired by the teams don't help gamblers or casinos. They help the teams that employ them.

Here is something you may not have considered. The analysts must like and know a lot about baseball. Otherwise, why would choose baseball to analyze instead of say the stock market? The teams, of course, are going to hire the best of the best, which means they will have an acute interest in the analysts' interest in and knowledge of the game.

In addition, the analysts often develop their own information areas. The more they know about baseball, the better they would be at identifying the specifics that would make a difference.

The analysts give up huge incomes from the business and tech sectors in order to work for far less in the baseball industry. Why would they do that unless they love the game? And in order to LOVE the game, you've got to know a lot about it.

So, again, what is it we know about baseball that the teams themselves don't know? The point you brought up was potentially a good one, but it didn't answer the question. So many questions in this area go unanswered.



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