Perspective on Panik

[klaiggeb]

To put what Joey did into perspective, I put together a quick list of Giants who did NOT do what Joe did this series;

Not Mel Ott

Not Bill Terry,

Not Rogers Hornsby

Not Willie Mays

Not Willie McCovey

Not Orlando Cepeda

Not Jack Clark

Not Will Clark

Not Barry Bonds

Not Jeff Kent

Not... any other Giant that could be named... did what Panik did this series.

THAT is impressive!

And they are 'considering' moving Joe?

Please, say it ain't so!

boly

[Islandboagie]

I don't think we can base our future on one series. I would like to jeep Panik around too, but if a trade makes us better then we should do it. None of the players you mentioned hit 3 homeruns in a World Series game either, but Pablo did. That's not good enough reason to lock him into a starting role for next season, he has to earn it by getting in better shape and having a good spring training.

[Rog]

I think Boly was simply pointing to the unusual nature of Joe's accomplishment. And quite an accomplishment it was. But Joe actually fell two hits short -- of a similar record by another Giant.

In 1995 Mike Benjamin got FOURTEEN hits in three games. They just happened to be spread out over two different series. Mike wound up hitting .220 on the year and was traded at the end of the season.

[Rog]

Joe is up to .285 on the season, four points above his career average, or not much of a difference. Most of Joe's peripherals are also close to his career marks. Surprisingly so. His OBP (.344) is exactly the same as over his career, although his power is up a little (.427 SLG vs. .410).

It kind of looks like the 2017 version of Joe is what we get. If we look at last season as an aberration, we should get more in the future. But if we look at 2015 as the aberration, we would get less.

There is a reasonable chance that the 2017 version of Joe Panik is the true version. That said, it's also possible that if he continues his hot streak, he could still hit .300.

[klaiggeb]

That's exactly what I was doing, Rog. Thanks for catching it.

I only added the last part because, unlike Pablo, Joe is just entering the prime of his career.



Yes, we need players, and yes, IF the deal is outstanding, we should include Joe.



But that said, it would have to be an AWESOME deal for me to do so BECAUSE... WHO REPLACES JOE?



Remember when we had the choice back in the early 1990's: Robby Thompson goes or Will Clark?

Management chose to move Will.

Mistake.

Not just in retrospect, but even at the time everyone with half a brain could see that Robby was more replaceable than Will.


And the guy that management wanted to believe was the guy had so many holes in his game it was off the chart!

That move was flat out stupid.



We move Joe and the guys who can replace him lack an incredible amount of experience not only at the plate but in the field!

How many runs does Joe save with his glove?

How many players are better at the pivot than Joe?

Not DJ Lem. from Colorado.

He's good at the pivot, but Joe's foot work is better, his release quicker, and he has a stronger arm.


Joe does too many things well to simply say "we have Miguel Gomez and Arroyo to replace him."


That's faulty logic.


Moving Arroyo to 2b assumes Ryder is ready to play 3B.

Wrong.

He's not.

I was a HUGE Ryder fan, but Ryder has gotten worse and worse at the plate, not showing ANY adjustments to the off speed slop they throw him.

Add to that, he swing through and misses more hittable pitches than Pence!

And right now, I think Hunter is an embarrassment to himself and the team!



So moving Joe in a deal that does NOT knock our/management's socks off is flat out foolish.

I would say, assinine.

boly

[Islandboagie]

I wasn't really disagreeing with Boly. Like I said, I'd like to keep Panik around too. I was merely pointing out plan B not being a terrible outcome. If we do trade Panik chances are we'd get someone to help us where we need it more than what we would need if Panik wasn't the second baseman.

For instance, would you rather have Panik at 2nd, Belt at 1st and a mix of our AAAA players roaming LF...or would you rather have Tomlinson at 2nd, Shaw at 1st and Stanton in LF?

[klaiggeb]

If we were talking about Stanton, Panik can leave in a heartbeat, boagie, I totally agree.

What I don't want to see, but I'm afraid we WILL see, is Panik moved in a deal for some 'decent' player, but not what we really need; someone that can flat out drive the ball.

Would I want him moved for the likes of JD Martinez?

I don't know, but I'd be leaning towards no. He's a mediocre defender at best, and in OUR place, mediocre won't get it done.

Thing is, I DON'T trust Evans yet. He hasn't proven to ME, the way Sabean did, that he knows what he's doing.

that could change for me, but right now? I'm more than skeptical.

boly

[Rog]

How many runs does Joe save with his glove?


Rog -- I realize that was a somewhat rhetorical question, but it is intriguing to note that all the defensive metrics Fan Graphs uses show Joe to be good to excellent in his first two full seasons with the Giants, but both show a decline this year. Whether coincidental or not, that corresponds to my own view.




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4061/perspective-on-panik#ixzz4s3A9iTv4

[Rog]

Moving Arroyo to 2b assumes Ryder is ready to play 3B.


Rog -- Or that the Giants get another third baseman. How would a rebound from Todd Frazier sound?




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4061/perspective-on-panik?page=1#ixzz4s3Mdn75R

[klaiggeb]

I don't see where we have the money to go out and get any big bat, Rog.

Everything I read said we are 'budget tight.'

And why in the world would a FR come to play in a ball park where his power numbers would be cut?


We need players like Shaw and Ryder to develop and develop quickly; In other words, our best shot is home grown power talent.

boly

[Rog]

We need players like Shaw and Ryder to develop and develop quickly; In other words, our best shot is home grown power talent.


Rog -- Ouch!

Jones' .312/.971 for Sacramento this season looks like a total outlier. Over his minor league career he has hit .261/721, which fits much closer with his .198/.597 with the Giants.

Shaw has better minor league numbers (.280/.856), but while he has hit a nice .289/.861 at Sacramento since his promotion from AA (.301/.899), he has struck out 106 times in 336 at bats, walking only 20 times.

At Sacramento this season, Shaw has hit similar to Jarrett Parker in 2015 and 2016, except that Jarrett hit with a bit more power and walked a whole lot more. (To Shaw's advantage, he is much younger than Parker.) Shaw's lack of plate control in AAA indicates to me that he's a year away and likely not a star even then.

He's slow afoot, and I don't believe he's a very good fielder.

If the Giants are counting on Jones and Shaw for next season, I think they're in a lot of trouble. Remember how the outfield looked like trouble before this season? Now the outfield and third base look problematic. And the rest of the roster looks far more iffy.

The Giants' starting pitching should be improved next season, but the outfield is a mess and third base is a hole. Brandon Belt's health could be a concern at first base.

Crawford and Panik have made nice late-season recoveries, and Buster has been solid, if lacking in power, all season.

When we look at it, about all the Giants can really count on -- given Melancon's upcoming surgery -- are:

Posey -- Superstar, but light on power, a Giant (pun intended) weakness

Crawford -- Proven star, especially defensively.

Panik -- Likely a player who can be relied on to be good.

Bumgarner -- Superstar not likely to join the Mountain Bike circuit.


For medical and consistency reasons Cueto, Dyson, Melancon and Belt don't make the cut here, with Cueto coming closest. Pretty much every other player has question marks or, in the case of other players, limited ceilings.

The Giants have a lot of holes, and not a lot of talent or money to fill them with.

You are right, Boly, about how little the Giants have left to spend. Spot Trac shows them with $179 million of commitments for 2018. Of that, the Giants will save a net $13 million when they don't exercise Matt Cain's option, leaving the total at $166 million.

That $166 million will be owed to Buster Posey, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Mark Melancon, Madison Bumgarner, Denard Span and Matt Moore.

Posey, Crawford and Bumgarner almost certainly won't be traded. Cueto, Pence, Belt, Melancon and Span likely can't be, given health or production issues. That leaves Samardzija and Moore among the players already with contracts who could be dealt. And perhaps Panik, Blach and Stratton among those also on the roster, plus Arroyo and Beede among the prospects.

Likely, Samardzija and Panik are the only two among that group with significant enough value that they could be traded straight up for another good player.

Age and injuries have depleted a roster that as recently as five months ago looked to be a .500 or above group.

There is little money for free agents, and little talent to trade. Any Giants trade of significance will likely rob Peter to pay Paul.

I wish I could come across that guy who told me before the season that while no one likes the idea, the Giants already needed to rebuild. Clearly he was far smarter on the issue than all of us here combined.

A final note regarding the one trade the Giants were able to make:

Gregory Santos didn't pitch as well for the Giants' Dominican Summer League team as he had pitched for the Red Sox's team, but having just turned 18 a week and a half ago, he still appears to be a long-shot pitcher with a reasonably high ceiling. He posted a 1.29 ERA on the season, with an identical 1.29 WHIP and an impressive 3.04/1 Ground Out to Air Out ratio.

After a two-game slump, 22-year-old Shaun Anderson finished the season strongly for San Jose, tossing a one-hitter with no walks over six full innings in his final start of the season. He struck out seven. Over his full season, Anderson limited opponents to a .222 batting average while posting a 1.10 WHIP and a 3.44 ERA.

Anderson looks like a high floor/low ceiling guy who could make it late next season if he were moved back to the bullpen, from which he pitched in college. Probably two or three years away if he remains a starter.

The Nunez trade has worked well for the Red Sox, and for a Giants team in need of a quick rebuild, it provided a low-ceiling pitcher not too far way, as well as a young gamble with a decently high ceiling on the mound.

Not a great trade for the Giants, but despite its coming in a buyers' market, one with a fair amount of certainty (Anderson) and potential (Santos).




Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4061/perspective-on-panik#ixzz4s6sguWMs

[Rog]

It will be difficult for the Giants to land a slugger via free agency, but it could be slightly easier to land a right-handed slugger. With 100 being average, the home run index for right-handed hitters in 2016 was 78, compared to 63 for lefty hitters.

If a hitter such as Todd Frazier dropped through the cracks, he might be available to the Giants with only a modest overpayment. Frazier is hitting only .210 this season, but he is a good fielder who has shown some attributes at the plate:

. In 2015 and 2016, he combined for 75 homers. This season he has 23 to date.

. Despite the low average, Frazier has shown better plate discipline this season. His strikeout percentage is still 22%, but his walk rate has soared from 10% to 14%. His swung and missed 10% of pitches compared to 12% over his career, and his swings on pitches outside the strike zone have fallen from 32% over his career to 26% this season.

. In other words, Frazier is a decent bounce-back candidate. He even has a modicum of speed, having stolen 58 bases in 79 attempts from 2014 though 2016 (although only four steals this season).

. Frazier looks like he might be the type of slugger who could possibly fall into the Giants' hands at a reasonable price. He's 31 years old and won't be likely to command a long contract. If the Giants could sign him to a reasonable one-year deal, why not?

They're caught between a rock (bad, expensive team now) and a hard place (below-average farm system with few if any players poised to make an immediate impact). And then there's that barrier of having few players to trade.

[Rog]

You know, when you read about baseball, sometimes you come across information that is relevant. I hadn't read the fine website Baseball Prospectus in a long time, so before I shut down my computer, I took a look. I almost immediately found a defensive evaluation of third baseman. Here is what they said about Frazier, whom they ranked #6:

6. Todd Frazier, New York Yankees — Few guys use their arm better at third base than Frazier does. He’s made a few concessions to his advancing age over the last year or two, playing a bit deeper to give himself more time to get to balls a few steps wide of him, even if it means fewer of the impressive charging, bare-handed plays he’s made in the past. However, he still cheats toward the hole more than almost any other third baseman in the league. He knows he can move to his right, even diving when necessary, and still get himself into position and make a strong throw in time to nab the runner most of the time. That experience and self-knowledge has immense value at a position that demands so many choices about positioning and approach.

By the way, Pablo Sandoval was ranked #29, ahead of only the Tigers' Nick Castellanos. I disagree with their conclusion, but here is what they wrote about Pablo:

29. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants — This should be a joke, and almost actually is one. Simply because he better handles what comes right at him, though, Sandoval might be a better third baseman than Castellanos. (It’s still a joke of another kind that the Giants have essentially made him their regular at the position, even accounting for the lack of obvious alternatives.)