Real Growth... or another mirage?

[klaiggeb]

I think everyone agrees that "if" Jarret sticks next year and in the future, he's going to be a very, very streaky hitter.

But in these last 2 games, we've seen something from him we haven't seen before.

In the past, when he goes into one of his "swing and miss," funks, it takes seemingly forever to come out of it.

Well, on this road trip he was in one.

But Wednesday, and even more so last night, he started squaring up pitches again.

Good sign, or just more of the same?

Real growth, or just another mirage?

Lord, I don't know, but I see it as a potential.... a "potential" sign of growth.

I know his body has gotten even quieter at the plate, and THAT, I see as a good thing.

We'll see, but my fingers are crossed.

boly

[Rog]

It would indeed be great if Jarrett can keep his slumps shorter. And maybe he has finally begun to do so.

But let's look at his season as a whole, and how it compares with his rookie season.

The biggest thing of course would be if he could strike out less often. How's that working? He struck out 39% as a rookie and has cut it to 35%. Still unacceptable, but a small amount of improvement.

He has improved more significantly in his swinging strike rate, dropping from 14% to 12%. Still unacceptable, but closing in on acceptability.

Combined, the strikeout factors show a bit of improvement -- but not nearly enough.

His eye show significant improvement though. As a rookie he swung at 31% of pitches outside the strike zone. He has cut that decent figure to a very good 21% this season.

This provides our best hope for Jarrett. If his strike zone recognition continues to improve, he should eventually be able to cut down on his whiff rate.

But just as we see a hopeful sign there, we see his walk rate has fallen like a 12-to-6 curve ball. His so-so-9% as a rookie improved to 12% last season -- but has fallen off the table to just 5% this season. Kind of offsets his other improvement.

How about the most impressive thing about Jarrett when he came up -- his ability to hit the ball hard? He did that 39% of the time as a rookie, which is close to excellent. But this season he has fallen to a normal 29%. When you strike out as much as Jarrett does, you'd better hit the ball very hard when you make contact.

His line drive, an excellent 29% as a rookie has fallen to a nearly-invisible 11% in 2017.

When we look at the whole package, it appears that the Jarrett Parker of 2015 was a rookie mirage. His hard-hit rate has fallen by 10%; his line drive rate by an unfathomable 18%. The only true improvement we see is his swinging at bad balls far less often -- and at an excellent rate for a slugger who strikes out as much as Jarrett does.

But that glimmer of hope has been turned into a flicker by his poor walk rate.

In summary, Jarrett isn't hitting the ball as well this season as he did as a rookie. Not nearly as well. An unsustainable .500 Batting Average on Balls In Play plus extensive home run power gave Jarrett his excellent rookie season. This season it would seem as if his .409 BABIP is filled with good fortune, which would mean even his .268 batting average this season has been lucky.

His power has dropped off to the point where he has hit only home run on the season. On the positive side, he's hitting more fly balls. But on the negative, he's popping up far more and hitting the ball considerably less hard.

But let's consider one factor. Jarrett suffered a devastating injury in April. He's hitting better in the majors than he hit in his extensive rehab assignment at Sacramento. Perhaps we're not yet seeing the true Jarrett.

Which means next season could be critical for him. For now, he has gone backward, not forward. Entering next season he may have little wiggle room.

[Rog]

If we're looking for a silver lining, it coincides with Boly's comment that Jarrett came out of his slump more quickly this time. Despite his strikeout slump, Jarrett is hitting .320 with an .866 OPS this month. We'd take that in a flash, wouldn't we?

The discouraging signs even there are 16 strikeouts in 52 plate appearances and a .455 BABIP that can't be sustained. After a horrendous start, Jarrett is putting up good numbers now.

But we know how numbers can be misinterpreted. When we look at Jarrett's August more closely we see that some of it is likely a mirage. On the other hand, he's played great defense (and came within six inches of pulling off another beauty last night), and he's shown significant improvement after a horrendous start to his season.

His trend is definitely up, but that is in part because he is coming from such a low point. If we can find more walks and fewer strikeouts, his improvement might indeed be real.

At this point though, I would be against it. He hasn't come close to maintaining the hopes he gave us in 2015.

[klaiggeb]

I think that Richie is correct; He's always going to be a swing and miss guy.

But IF...IF this isn't a mirage, and he's truly going to be making more contact...that's a good thing.

Like I posted in another thread last week. IF he were to hit 25-30 strike outs and hit .250+, and plays good defense, could we live with his striking out 120 times?

I'm thinking, yes, we could.

IF...

boly

[Rog]

Striking out isn't that big a deal compared to other outs. And it's a lot better than hitting into a double play.

But in order to put up any kind of average, a guy who strikes out a lot has got to hit the ball really hard.

Let's look at a comparison to Trevor Story, who is another huge strikeout guy who got off to an even better and longer start to his major league career.

Last season before being injured, Story hit a spectacular 27 homers in 415 at bats, while batting .272. How did he do it? For starters, he hit the ball hard 45% of the time and hit a fly ball 47% of his contact at bats while popping up only at a 9% rate on fly balls. Hitting the ball so hard gave him a .343 batting average when he did put the ball in the field of play. He struck out 31% of the time.

Let's see how that compares to Jarrett's brief rookie season a year before.

Jarrett hit the ball hard 39% of the time, 6% behind Story. He hit a fly ball 32% of the time. That wasn't even close to Story. But Jarrett hit a lot of home runs because two out of every three times he hit a fly ball, it went out of the park. No one history has hit half that rate, so clearly it was going to plummet.

He also hit for a .500 BABIP, .157 higher than Story. Clearly that wasn't going to continue either. Parker was playing at his very best, probably the best he would ever play in his career.

How has Story fared this season? He's still hitting with power (18 homers in 395 at bats), but not as much. He's struck out 36% of the time. So despite a very nice .326 BABIP, he's hitting just .226. Perhaps a model for Jarrett at close to his normal best.

This season Jarrett has hit only one home run. He has more power than that, but not nearly as much as he showed as a rookie. At best, he's probably got the power of the 2017 Trevor Story.

Jarrett has managed to hit .268 this season though, 42 points higher than Story. But Jarrett's .400 BABIP on 29% hard-hit balls says he's been really lucky. Story's .321 BABIP on 36% hard-hit balls is far closer to normal.

If I were to project Jarrett going forward, I wouldn't feel bad about using Story as a model. Somewhat of an upside model, since he continues to hit the ball hard a fair amount more than does Jarrett.

So maybe we're looking at something like .230-.240 with power somewhat better than Brandon Belt. Probably not much more than that. Kind of like Brandon's power this season, not his lesser power over his career. That wouldn't put Jarrett too far off Brandon's 2017 season -- except that it's a very down season for Brandon, who also helps himself by walking three times as often as Jarrett has this season.

To me, Jarrett projects as a below-average left fielder whose value is increased from bad to just poor by a very nice defense. Fan Graph's three projections for Jarrett this season had him in the high .220's. That's probably not far off, although it might be 10 points or so too low. They had him projected with an isolated power (extra bases) of about .160, which also might be a tad too low, but probably not much. His career isolated power is .211, but that is based in part on a higher average than he'll likely hit for.

Jarrett's career BABIP has been .375, whereas the projections call for about .330. Maybe add 10 or 15 points to that too. What we wind up with is pretty close to this year's Story with a little less power.

Jarrett projects to a fifth outfielder IMO. A good lefty pinch hitter when power is needed, and a nice defensive replacement, particularly in left field. An occasional starter against right-handed pitching.

If that is the role he has with the Giants going forward, it might mean they have put together a decent outfield. If he remains a starter, they'd better have a very good center fielder and right fielder. Obviously they don't have that right now.

If Jarrett can hit .250 with 25-30 homers, with is defense and a decent walk rate he can definitely play left field for me, regardless of the strikeouts. But I don't think he'll provide either of the last two.

Is there anything concrete that points toward Jarrett doing so?

[klaiggeb]

After this spring, Rog, and the beginning of the season, I didn't think so, either.

But now?

Now I'm no longer sure.

boly

[Rog]

This season Jarrett has struck out once every four at bats. In the other three at bats out of four, he has hit the ball hard once every four at bats. What that means is that three times out of every 16 at bats, Jarrett has hit the ball hard. If we assumed he got a hit every time he hit the ball hard and didn't get a hit when he didn't, his batting average would be below .300. That's not exactly the way it works, of course, but it does appear Jarrett has been quite lucky so far this season.

Worse, he's hit a line drive once out of every 10 times he has hit the ball. That means he's hit a line drive three times every 40 at bats. That's even worse than his hard-hit rate.

Perhaps Jarrett is finally starting to hit the ball hard. But he certainly hasn't done so so far this season. His strikeout percentage is woeful. His hard-hit ball rate is below-average. His line drive rate is woeful.

Jarrett's numbers (.263/.723) aren't very good, but he has hit the ball worse than that. If Jarrett is truly going to hit, he's going to have to hit the ball much harder. He's done so before, but not this season. Maybe we should give him something of a mulligan due to his horrendous clavicle injury though.

But in terms of results this season, he's been lucky his numbers haven't been really lousy. The numbers underneath the numbers show how weak he has been at the plate. Surprisingly weak.

[klaiggeb]

Are you watching the same Jarrett Parker that the rest of us are, Roger?

I'm not sure you are.

For a moment, put the numbers aside and WATCH the at bats.

Twice he has inside outed a ball down the LF line for a double.

He's drive the ball to LCF and CF and CF for long doubles.

Last night he was robbed of a hit BECAUSE the 1Bman was holding Pence on, and the bullet Parker hit was right at him.

He's quieter at the plate, and making a LOT more consistent contact.

A LOT more.

Roger, you seem obsessed with pointing out the negatives while ignoring what he's done DIFFERENTLY this year than in past years.

Put the numbers down and just watch for a while.

Please.

boly

[Rog]

I'm watching the same guy you're watching, and I agree his two doubles down the left field line were things of beauty. If he can do that consistently, the defense will either have to play him much differently, or more likely unless he does it a lot, just concede the doubles.

So let's watch and see how often he can hit the ball there in that manner. For quite a while, he'll get a double every time. And that could lead to eliminating the over-shift, which would likely result in several more hits.

But I doubt he'll be able to do that consistently.

As for the hard-hit ball down the first base line, that was indeed bad luck, turning a double into a double play. But not every hard-hit ball is rewarded, and many poorly-hit balls become hits. Such is the unfair nature of the game.

And of course I see that he wiggles the bat less. What I couldn't figure out was why he went back to wiggling it for a while.

But I also see that he has hit the ball hard in only about 3/16ths of his at bats. That indicates that if he got a hit every time he hit the ball hard and made an out every time he didn't, he'd be hitting less than .200.

What you're talking about here is a week of games. What I'm talking about is the whole season. What you're talking about if you do go back, is your memories. What I'm talking about are facts.

I know there are some things that Jarrett has improved. For one thing, he's shown that he's a better fielder than I realized or had read. His considerable of his bat wiggle is hard to miss.

But he did his best hitting as a rookie. Probably a LOT of luck involved there (in terms of getting red hot), but he hit really WELL in that brief time. It's not just that I remember all his homers, including his three homer game, it's that he hit the ball harder half again as often as he has done so this season. Look at the difference in the home runs between then and now.

What I have is a scouting report based on watching him, and the facts of how often he has hit the ball hard. I'll bet if you hadn't read differently and we asked you if he had hit the ball hard more often this season than in previous years, you would have said yes. In actuality, he hasn't hit the ball hard NEARLY as often this season as in his rookie year.

By the way, my math was a little off. Jarrett hasn't his the ball three out of four at bats, he's done do two out of every three. He has actually hit the ball had in one out of every six at bats this season. That's really bad.

One time he hit the ball this weekend, it went for a double play. Bad luck. Twice he hit ground balls down the left field line for doubles. Unless we think he can hit the ball consistently in that direction, good luck. It would appear that on the entire season and of course with the exception of his broken clavicle, Jarret has had more good luck than bad.

If you truly think he's hit well, look at his home run total. You said you could live with him if he hit 25 or 30 homers and batted .250. Hey, so could I. With his defense, he'd be an above-average player.

But this season -- the one in which you are impressed with him -- he's on pace to hit seven homers if he had 588 at bats. No question he's more powerful than that, but he has also hit a homer only once every 30 at bats as a professional. That's not a 25-30 homer pace.

Might he be able to hit 25 to 30 homers in a season? I think so. Buster Posey has proven not to be a true power hitter, and he hit 24 long balls in 2012. In his rookie season between SF and Sacramento, he his 29 in 558 at bats. That's impressive. Last season he hit 21 in 373 at bats. That's even more impressive.

But this season between SF and Sacramento, he's hit four in 211 at bats. That's not impressive at all, especially when we consider that three of the four came in AAA.

As I mentioned earlier, perhaps it's his clavicle holding him back. That's a devastating injury from which he came back much sooner than I expected. But the reality is that with almost no exceptions, batters who strike out more than once every three at bats in the minors don't hit well in the majors.

One small improvement for Jarrett this season is that he is striking out a bit less. But he's still striking out once every three at bats. If a player strikes out a third of the time, he's got to his .375 when he hits the ball in order to hit .250. It's doable, but it's darn hard.

If Jarrett played full time, I don't think he would consistently hit 25-30 homer runs a season. I don't think he would consistently hit .250. Collar bone, of course, but Jarrett hit only .232 at Sacramento this year. He hit only three home runs in 112 at bats.

Worse, Jarrett hasn't his the ball hard as often as his average with the Giants this season would indicate. Usually those things resolve themselves. He'll very likely hit the ball hard more often, or see his average decline.

Yes, there are some good signs. But in order to hit well enough to help the Giants as an everyday left fielder, Jarrett has to hit the ball hard more often than he has done so this season. Likely a fair amount more often. Or he has got to cut down on his strikeouts -- or even better, both.

I mentioned a week or more ago that the Giants don't have any prospects like the Phillies' Rhys Hoskins, even though for some reason one guy rating the top 100 prospects rated Christian Arroyo slightly higher than Hoskins.

Looking at Hoskins' minor league stats this season it was pretty clear he had a great chance to hit. He hit 29 homers while walking almost as often as he struck out. That's a heck of a combination.

I mentioned that Jarrett has hit the ball hard a quarter of the time he has hit the ball. Very small sample, but Hoskins has done so on nearly half the ball he has hit.

Jarrett has swung and missed less frequently this season (which does provide some hope of improvement), but he has still swung and missed more than twice as often as Hoskins. Even with a walk this weekend, Jarrett has walked four times on the season. Hoskins has already walked twice that many times -- in a week and a half.

Jarrett has hit one homer. Hoskins has hit five the past seven days.

I know you disparage fantasy baseball, but entering the weekend, I told Mark I had picked up Hoskins for my team because I was focusing on home runs and walks and that Hoskins could help me in both areas. Between Friday, Saturday and Sunday, Hoskins hit two homers and walked four times.

Hoskins entered the Giants series hitting just .160. But the Phillies were more than pleased -- because he had been hitting the ball hard half the time. They knew that if he could continue to do so nearly that often, he would hit. And hit against the Giants, he did, with five hits and two homers in 13 at bats.

Twice yesterday Madison Bumgarner made Hoskins look horrible with curve balls in the dirt for strike outs. But Rhys -- who is from Sacramento and Sacramento State -- recovered to line out, get a single, and homer in his other three at bats. His homer yesterday came on a pitch at the very bottom inside corner of the strike zone.

Despite his homer coming off a curve ball, Hoskins needs work hitting against major league secondary pitches. But at the age of 24, he's FAR ahead of Jarrett Parker.

Of Christian Arroyo too, although Christian has the advantage of being younger.

I had never seen Hoskins take a swing, Boly, but I spoke about the type of hitter he was. How did he look to you over the weekend? He was exposed a bit in left field, which he hadn't played until recently, but even though Bumgarner embarrassed him yesterday -- not once, but twice -- he hit the ball hard during the series. That's why the Phillies weren't worried about him, at least according to Mike Krukow.

You know a lot about the game, Boly. Add in a greater knowledge of what the stats mean, and you could almost scout!

[klaiggeb]

Hoskins was very exposed in the OF.

Then again, he's only played a couple of games out there.

He's too slow and too lumbering to be an OF, IMHO.

I have no clue why he's NOT playing 1B more.

boly

[klaiggeb]

As to stats, I don't mean to down play them, but when evaluating recent performances, unless I look at recent numbers they DON'T show me what he's done lately.

Total reliance on numbers 'might' show how a player projects out over the long run, but in a situation like Jarret's, so few Major League at bats, they can be misleading.

Looking at minor league numbers can help.

But the minors ain't the majors and 'SOME' players with bad/mediocre minor league numbers do much better against Major League pitcher than minor league pitching.



As to fantasy baseball, Rog, I don't disparage it, I just don't like it.

It's NOT baseball.

There is no 'in game' strategy involved, and thus, it's just numbers, no better and no worse than something like Yatzee.

boly

[Rog]

Hoskins was very exposed in the OF.

Then again, he's only played a couple of games out there.

He's too slow and too lumbering to be an OF, IMHO.

I have no clue why he's NOT playing 1B more.


Rog -- The Phillies are trying not to give up on former Giant Tommy Joseph. And they're giving Hoskins experience at another position. Not that he's going to be a platoon or backup player, but it never hurts to have the ability to play multiple positions.

Hoskins' best position appears to be hitter.


Read more: sfgiantsmessageboard.proboards.com/thread/4037/real-growth-another-mirage#ixzz4qRz9Q5vb

[Rog]

As to stats, I don't mean to down play them, but when evaluating recent performances, unless I look at recent numbers they DON'T show me what he's done lately.


Rog -- That's a very good point. It's why I have watched Pablo's numbers, for instance, on an ongoing basis. What I have found is that he's striking out quite a bit less than with the Red Sox, but surprisingly he's not hitting the ball hard as often.

I wasn't paying close attention to Pablo's pop up rate with the Red Sox as opposed to the with the Giants, but this season he his popping the ball up a lot more.

Getting back to Jarrett, his hard-hit rate has declined a bit (and only a bit) in recent days.

On the other hand, over the past five days he's gone 7 for 20 with only two strikeouts. If he could continue that, obviously he would be valuable. One thing to notice though is that during those five games, he has only three extra bases on his seven hits, and he has walked only once. I believe two of the three extra bases came on his ground ball singles down the third base line.

I agree we should keep an eye on Jarrett's improvement. If he can improve, that would lend more credence to his season's having been muted by his clavicle injury.

But he's GOT to his the ball harder. He has hit the ball just an average of 83 mph. The league average is close to 87 mph. When you strike out in a third of your at bats, you had better hit the ball hard when you hit it.

Let's compare Jarrett to Hoskins. Rhys has hit the ball an average of 88 mph, and has hit it an average of 248 feet. The league average is 202 feet, and Jarrett has hit it an average of 187 feet. Rhys has struck out in 15% of his plate appearances; Jarrett has struck out in 32% of them.

Almost no matter HOW much Jarrett has improved of late, he's clearly nowhere near the hitting prospect Hoskins is. And Hoskins is four years younger with less major league experience.

Jarrett is FAR better in the outfield. I'll certainly give him that. He's clearly faster. But when it comes to hitting, I wish the Giants had Hoskins. I REALLY wish they had him.

Hoskins is only a sixth-round draft choice, and he grew up in Sacramento and played at Sacramento State. The Giants have tended to emphasize pitching prospect, but I surely wish they had strayed from that tendency in about the fifth round of the 2014 draft.

Parker was a 2nd-round pick (in 2010 IIRC), but he isn't anywhere near the prospect Hoskins is. When I first heard of Hoskins earlier this season, I saw his K/BB ratio and his power and got excited for him. That's why he -- not Jarrett -- is on my fantasy team.

As I mentioned, playing fantasy has helped me learn more about players on other teams. Would I have read about Hoskins before I played fantasy? Possibly. But I doubt it.

When I was a kid, I used to know about MOST of the players in the major leagues. IN recent years I had known very little about most non-Giants players. Now I am learning a lot about other teams' players -- and enjoying it a lot. It has expanded my pleasure with baseball. And my knowledge as well.



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[Rog]

As to fantasy baseball, Rog, I don't disparage it, I just don't like it.

It's NOT baseball.

There is no 'in game' strategy involved, and thus, it's just numbers, no better and no worse than something like Yatzee.


Rog -- You must be kidding. You are absolutely right that there is no in-game strategy, but frankly that is overrated anyway. Not that it doesn't matter, but it doesn't make nearly as much difference as having the right players and playing the right players in the game.

This season I have made more moves than ever before. I've made about three-quarters of the trades in my league (which Mark and his younger son also play in), and Mark and I are both among the leaders in waiver and free agent pickups. I'm not sure, but I believe Mark, his son and/or I have been involved in every trade in what is actually a Dodgers league. I'm hoping all three of us Giants fans make the playoffs just to show those lousy Dodger guys.

Only one of he 20 players on my roster has been on my roster the entire season. That's Jake Lamb, who has been one of my best players. Through trades, I now have Joey Votto, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa. And guess what? I PLATOON Lamb and have considered platooning even Harper. ON occasion I've platooned Votto in past seasons. Remember, all our teams are filled with mostly All-Stars.

I know a LOT about my players -- and also many of the players around the league. I am the GM of my team, and I make out my lineup card every day. You're right that I don't make a single in-game decision, but Mark, Bryan and I certainly make a lot more baseball decisions than do those who don't play fantasy.

I never thought I would play fantasy baseball. I don't play any other sports. But as I have mentioned, my son -- who lives in LA even though he's a Giants fan who recently called me from the Giants' dugout -- called me early one Sunday morning a year and a half ago and asked if I could take over his team. The draft was starting in about two hours.

I know enough about baseball that I was able to pull off a good draft even though I could barely get the computer to work the right way to make the picks. And frankly, I was quickly hooked.

Here is what I would suggest, Boly. Play in one league just to see what it is all about. It's kind of hard to know if you will like something if you don't try it. I never thought I would like the game, but how wrong I was.

We had a board league last year. Maybe we should resurrect it and you could join, Boly. I personally like the format of the Yahoo leagues better, but the ESPN game is a good one too.

I can't say fantasy baseball has been my primary source of baseball knowledge since I began playing it, but I can say I've learned as much from it as I have here on our board.

The only negative I can come up with is that this winter I'll miss the season even more than ever. But I'll also study the game more than before my involvement with fantasy.

I feel blessed that some of the things surrounding the game have allowed me to study the game as well as watch it. I know far more about the game than I did even 10 years ago. And I knew more than a little about it back then.

I know a lot more about baseball than the other sports, not that I don't know a little about them too. But that's why I play fantasy BASEBALL and none of the other sports.




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